This project would not have been possible without access to the data supplied by ...... Table 24: West of Scotland Unive
2016 The University of Glasgow and West of Scotland Local Authority partners: how to engage with MD40 pupils in higher progression schools - SFC Impact for Access Project Report
Dr Neil Croll Alison Browitt Monika Anderson Kelly Hedge-Holmes
Acknowledgements:
Thanks go to our Local Authority partners and participating schools. With special thanks for their contributions to the final manuscript to Rita Nimmo, Tony McDaid, Laura Cook, Luoana Santarossa, Jamie Wilson, Sandra Ramage, Euan Mckay and Alyson Wynne-Jones. Further thanks to Pam Davie and the pupils and staff at Kirkintilloch High School. This project was supported by the Scottish Funding Council Impact for Access Fund. Thank you to Anna Thomson for her support throughout the project. This project would not have been possible without access to the data supplied by Scottish Government Analytical Services. Thank you to Albert King for his help and support in obtaining this information. This project was conducted as a partnership between the University of Glasgow, the 13 west of Scotland Local Authorities and associated secondary schools. However, responsibility for any opinion or conclusions drawn in this report lies solely with the authors.
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1. Tables of Contents 1.
Tables of Contents .......................................................................................................................... 2
2.1
List of Tables ............................................................................................................................... 6
2.2
List of Figures .............................................................................................................................. 7
3.
Executive Summary ......................................................................................................................... 8
4. Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 20 4.1 Context ........................................................................................................................................ 20 4.2 Perceived need for the research................................................................................................. 20 4.2.1 UoG WP pre-entry programmes .............................................................................................. 20 4.2.2 Targeting of pre-entry programmes ........................................................................................ 20 4.2.3 Distribution of MD40 pupils across secondary schools ........................................................... 21 4.2.4 Additional funded places for MD40 applicants ....................................................................... 22 4.2.5 Research / evaluation of UoG pre-entry programmes: Top-Up case study ............................ 23 4.2.6 UoG MD40 First Year Continuation ......................................................................................... 24 4.2.7 SFC Impact for Access Fund Bid ............................................................................................... 25 4.3 Funding and staffing ................................................................................................................... 25 4.4 Project duration .......................................................................................................................... 25 4.5 Project Aims ................................................................................................................................ 26 4.5.1 Quantitative research .............................................................................................................. 26 4.5.2 Qualitative research ................................................................................................................. 26 4.5.3 Pilot engagement of pupils / parents / schools ....................................................................... 26 4.6 Report Structure ......................................................................................................................... 27 5. Methodology ..................................................................................................................................... 28 5.1 Quantitative analysis................................................................................................................... 28 5.2 Qualitative analysis ..................................................................................................................... 29 5.3 Pilot engagement and evaluation ............................................................................................... 29 6. Quantitative Data Analysis ................................................................................................................ 30 6.1 Relative socio-economic disadvantage correlates with progression to HE ................................ 30 6.2 Alternative measures of socio-economic disadvantage ............................................................. 33 6.3 Pupil profiles in west of Scotland Local Authorities.................................................................... 34 6.4 The scale of the problem ............................................................................................................ 37 2
6.5 Progression to HE and attainment in lower and higher progression schools............................. 39 6.6 Protected Characteristics ............................................................................................................ 41 6.6.1 Correlation of SIMD with protected characteristics ................................................................ 41 6.6.2 S4 attainment by SIMD and protected characteristics ............................................................ 41 6.7 Correlation of care experience with SIMD decile and gender .................................................... 43 6.7.1 Care experienced pupils by SIMD decile and gender .............................................................. 43 6.7.2 Number of care experienced pupils by school stage and gender............................................ 44 6.7.3 Average cumulative Insight tariff points gained by care experienced pupils by stage and gender ............................................................................................................................................... 45 6.7.4 Highest SCQF qualification achieved by care experienced pupils ........................................... 46 6.7.5 Care experienced leavers’ destinations ................................................................................... 46 6.8 School leavers: characteristics, attainment and progression to HE ........................................... 47 6.8.1 S4 / Winter S5 Leavers by SIMD postcode ............................................................................... 47 6.8.1.1 Average Cumulative Tariff Points by Leaver Group and SIMD Decile .................................. 48 6.8.1.2 S4 Leavers by Gender and SIMD Decile ................................................................................ 49 6.8.1.3 S4 Leavers by Ethnicity and Gender...................................................................................... 50 6.8.2 S5 Leavers ................................................................................................................................ 51 6.8.2.1 S5 Leavers by SIMD Decile .................................................................................................... 51 6.8.2.2 S5 MD40 leavers relative to the overall MD40 school population ....................................... 51 6.8.2.3 S5 Leavers by SIMD Decile and Gender ................................................................................ 52 6.8.2.4 Pupil Points Groups ............................................................................................................... 53 6.8.3 S6 Leavers ................................................................................................................................ 57 6.8.3.1 S6 Leavers by Gender, SIMD decile and cumulative Insight Tariff Points............................. 57 6.8.3.2 S6 Population by SIMD Decile and Pupil Points Group (2009-2015) .................................... 58 6.8.3.3 S6 leavers progression to HE by Pupil Points Group and gender ......................................... 60 6.8.3.4 Highest SCQF qualifications obtained by S6 leavers ............................................................. 62 6.9 Calculating Potential among S4 / S5 / S6 Leavers ....................................................................... 63 6.10 Attainment in English and Mathematics................................................................................... 66 6.10.1 Attainment in English ............................................................................................................. 66 6.10.2 Attainment in Maths .............................................................................................................. 67 6.11 West of Scotland school leavers entering Higher Education at University .............................. 68 6.12 Retention of students entering higher education at the University of Glasgow ...................... 69 7. Qualitative Research Analysis ........................................................................................................... 72 3
7.1 S1 pupils ...................................................................................................................................... 72 7.1.1 Aspirations to progress to HE .................................................................................................. 72 7.1.2 Perceptions and knowledge of HE ........................................................................................... 73 7.1.3 Family background of HE ......................................................................................................... 74 7.1.4 Obtaining information on HE ................................................................................................... 74 7.2 S6 pupils ...................................................................................................................................... 74 7.2.1 Aspirations to progress to HE .................................................................................................. 74 7.2.2 Attitudes towards HE and preparedness to progress .............................................................. 76 7.2.3 Utility of pre-entry engagement .............................................................................................. 76 7.2.4 Family background of HE ......................................................................................................... 77 7.2.5 Obtaining information on HE ................................................................................................... 77 7.3 Parents ........................................................................................................................................ 78 7.3.1 Parental attitudes to HE ........................................................................................................... 78 7.3.2 Obtaining information on HE ................................................................................................... 78 7.3.3 Advising on HE progression...................................................................................................... 78 8. Engagement with MD40 Pupils – pilot projects................................................................................ 79 8.1 The Top-Up Programme: targeted and selected cohorts in school clusters .............................. 79 8.2 Top-Up Programme in a remote and rural targeted school ....................................................... 80 8.3 Early Secondary Programme: S1-S3 Aspirations Day .................................................................. 80 8.4 Refugee and Asylum Seekers Event ............................................................................................ 81 8.5 S5 Study Skills Workshops........................................................................................................... 81 8.6. Parent/guardian engagement .................................................................................................... 81 8.6.1 Parents’ Transition Night ......................................................................................................... 81 8.6.2 Pre-Top-Up Programme parents’ information evening ........................................................... 81 8.7 Evaluation ................................................................................................................................... 81 8.7.1 Evaluation of the Top-Up Programme Pilots ........................................................................... 81 8.7.1.1 Participation and completion of the programme ................................................................. 81 8.7.1.2 Pupil Evaluation Survey Results ............................................................................................ 83 8.7.1.3 Teacher Evaluation – Follow-Up Telephone Interviews ....................................................... 84 8.7.2 Aspirations Day Evaluation ...................................................................................................... 84 8.7.2 Parental Engagement Evaluation ............................................................................................. 86 8.7.2.1 Parents Transitions Event ..................................................................................................... 86 8.7.2.2 Top-Up Programme parents information evening ............................................................... 86 4
Case Study: Kirkintilloch High School ................................................................................................ 87 9. Conclusions ....................................................................................................................................... 90 9.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 90 9.2. Effectiveness of SIMD and other criteria as measures of deprivation ...................................... 90 9.3 MD20/40 residents attending higher progression schools are disadvantaged compared to their non-MD40 peers ............................................................................................................................... 93 9.4 Numbers of MD40 pupils in higher progression schools not currently engaged with widening access activity ................................................................................................................................... 93 9.5 Attainment in school ................................................................................................................... 94 9.6 School staying on rates ............................................................................................................... 95 9.7
Leavers with no HE destination, but with potential to progress to HE ................................ 96
9.8 MD40 pupil consideration of HE progression ............................................................................. 97 9.9 Pupil attitudes to WP programme intervention in school .......................................................... 98 9.10 Preparation for transition from school to HE, AIG and careers guidance ................................ 99 9.11 Parent / guardian / family engagement.................................................................................. 100 9.12 Protected Characteristic Groups ............................................................................................. 101 9.13 School Pilot Engagement Initiatives........................................................................................ 103 9.14 10.
Final Remarks ...................................................................................................................... 107 Recommendations .................................................................................................................. 111
Measures and Data ......................................................................................................................... 111 Engaging with MD20/40 pupils in higher progression schools ....................................................... 112 Attainment / staying on in school ................................................................................................... 114 Aspiration and advice, information and guidance .......................................................................... 115 Care experience .............................................................................................................................. 116 Gender ............................................................................................................................................ 116 Parents ............................................................................................................................................ 117 11. Appendices .................................................................................................................................... 119
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2.1
List of Tables
Table 1: SIMD Breakdown by LA (2015-16) .......................................................................................... 35 Table 2: FSM by LA (A-H) and Year Group (2015-16) ............................................................................ 36 Table 3: Ethnicity by LA (A-H) and Year Group (2015-16) ..................................................................... 36 Table 4: S4 pupil population by SIMD postcode, gender and ethnicity ................................................ 41 Table 5: Correlation of care experience with SIMD decile and gender ................................................ 44 Table 6: Number and percentage of pupils with experience of care by school stage .......................... 44 Table 7: Percentage of pupils with experience of care by leaver stage and year ................................ 45 Table 8: Average Cumulative Tariff of Care Experienced Pupils by Stage and Gender and Care Category ................................................................................................................................................ 45 Table 9: Care experienced pupil population by stage and highest SCQF Course Achieved.................. 46 Table 10: S4 Leaver population by SIMD (Decile) 2009-2015 ............................................................... 48 Table 11: Average Cumulative Tariff Points by Leaver Group and SIMD Decile ................................... 49 Table 12: S4 Leavers by Gender and SIMD Decile ................................................................................ 49 Table 13: S4 Leavers by Ethnicity and Gender ...................................................................................... 50 Table 14: S5 Leavers by SIMD (Decile) .................................................................................................. 51 Table 15: S5 Leavers by SIMD Decile and Gender ................................................................................ 52 Table 16: S5 leavers by Pupil Points Group and cumulative Insight Tariff Points................................. 55 Table 17: S5 Progression to HE and Average Cumulative Tariff Points by Pupil Points Group and Gender .................................................................................................................................................. 56 Table 18: SIMD S6 leavers by gender .................................................................................................... 57 Table 19: S6 population by SIMD decile and Pupil Points Group (2009-2015)..................................... 58 Table 20: S6 leavers by Pupil Points Group and cumulative Insight Tariff Points................................. 59 Table 21: Progression onto HE by Pupil Points Group and Gender ...................................................... 60 Table 22: Sample Exam Profiles of Pupils Attaining 296 Insight Tariff Points in S4 .............................. 63 Table 23: Percentage of school leavers with a destination of HE studying at University, 2014-15 ..... 68 Table 24: West of Scotland University Destinations by Scottish Institution (%) .................................. 69 Table 25: Number of entrants to the University of Glasgow, by Local Authority................................. 70 Table 26: Top-Up completion rates in project schools ......................................................................... 82 Table 27: Project recommendations by stakeholder .......................................................................... 118
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2.2
List of Figures
Figure 1: Top Up Programme research: Proportions of continuing students by SIMD ........................ 24 Figure 2: School MD40 population by leavers HE progression ............................................................. 31 Figure 3: School MD20 Population by leavers HE progression ............................................................. 32 Figure 4: Percentage of MD40 pupils in LA school population in 2014-15 vs percentage of 2015 LA school leavers with a destination of HE in University........................................................................... 33 Figure 5: FSM and EMA proportions in school populations by school HE progression ........................ 34 Figure 6: Percentage of Pupils Claiming Free School Meals by SIMD Decile ........................................ 37 Figure 7: Approximate Number of MD40 Pupils in Non-Target Schools in West LAs Annually Figure 8: Approximate Number of non - MD40 Pupils in Non-Target Schools in West LAs Annually (2009-2015 average) ............................................................................................................................. 39 Figure 9: Progression to HE by MD40 and non-MD40 cohorts in lower and higher progression schools .............................................................................................................................................................. 40 Figure 10: Attainment of Insight Tariff Points by MD40 and non-MD40 cohorts in lower and higher progression schools .............................................................................................................................. 40 Figure 11: Cumulative Tariff Points S4 (2009-2015) by Gender and SIMD Decile ................................ 42 Figure 12: Cumulative Tariff Points S4 (2009-2015) by Gender and Ethnicity ..................................... 43 Figure 13: Looked After Leaver Destination and Leaver Stage ............................................................. 46 Figure 14: Difference between LA S4 MD 40 Population and percentage of MD40 among S4/S5 winter leavers. ...................................................................................................................................... 47 Figure 15: Average Cumulative Tariff Points of S4 Leavers .................................................................. 50 Figure 16: Difference between LA MD40 Population and % of MD40 among S5 Leavers ................... 51 Figure 17: S5 Leaver Average Cumulative Insight Tariff Points by SIMD decile and gender ................ 52 Figure 18: S5 Pupil Points Groups by SIMD Decile (2009-2015) ........................................................... 53 Figure 19:: S5 Pupil Points Groups By Gender (2009-2015) ................................................................. 53 Figure 20: S6 Average Cumulative Insight Tariff Points by SIMD Decile and Gender ........................... 57 Figure 21: S6 (2009-2015) Leavers Progressing to HE .......................................................................... 61 Figure 22: S6 Average Cumulative Insight Tariff Points (Destination HE)............................................. 61 Figure 23: Highest SCQF level SQA qualification attained by the end of S6 by SIMD decile ................ 62 Figure 24: Cumulative Tariff of all HE entrants at the end of S6 .......................................................... 64 Figure 25: S4-6 Leavers who had the potential to progress to Higher Education (2009-2015) ........... 65 Figure 26: Attainment in English by SIMD decile at the end of S6 (2015) ............................................ 66 Figure 27: Attainment in English by Gender and SIMD decile at the end of S6 (2015) ........................ 66 Figure 28: Attainment in Mathematics by SIMD decile at the end of S6 (2015) .................................. 67 Figure 29: Attainment in Maths by Gender and SIMD decile at the end of S6 (2015) ......................... 67 Figure 30: Continuation of west of Scotland schools entrants to UoG (2012-2014) ............................ 71 Figure 31: What do you want to do after you leave school? ................................................................ 73 Figure 32: How sure are you that you want to go to college/university? ............................................ 75 Figure 33: When did you start thinking about university? ................................................................... 76 Figure 34: Model of Key Intervention and Influencers on the WP Learner Journey .......................... 110
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3. Executive Summary Introduction This research project, ‘University of Glasgow and West of Scotland Local Authority partners: how to engage with MD40 pupils in higher progression schools’, was conducted via Scottish Funding Council Impact for Access funding. The case for the research was reached through experience of widening access over the past 15 years at the University of Glasgow and a growing sense that a problem existed for pupils living in SIMD 20 and SIMD 40 postcode areas and attending schools with higher progression rates to Higher Education (HE). It had been widely considered that these pupils would progress to HE as they were attending schools accustomed to sending high numbers of pupils to university and that they would benefit from a peer group more likely to aspire to and progress to HE. However, research conducted by UoG into MD20/40 student performance and retention, combined with early data received from two Local Authority (LA) partners and problems recruiting MD20/40 pupils from higher progression schools, after accepting 200 additional MD40 student places in 2012, led to a reconsideration of this thinking. The Impact for Access project provided an opportunity to take a deep and systematic look at MD20/40 pupil performance in higher progression schools, in partnership with the 13 west of Scotland LAs with whom the University has worked closely to widen access. The project utilised a mixed methods approach. Extensive quantitative analysis of several datasets, including eight years (2009-15) of data from the Insight Analytical Dataset, combined with qualitative surveys, focus groups and interviews of over 1,000 stakeholders (pupils, students, teachers, LA Education and Data staff, parents, Widening Participation (WP) Tutors), and research in action via engagement pilot initiatives involving pupils and parents in targeted schools. The main questions the project sought to answer were: 1) What was the scale of the problem – what is the number of MD40 pupils currently in higher progression schools not being targeted by WP initiatives? 2) Did other factors contribute to influence progression/non-progression? For example, school attainment; gender; ethnicity; care experience. 3) How were MD40 students, who did progress to HE from higher progression schools, performing within university? Further, if a problem existed, the project should consider and trial: 1) The most effective methods of pupil / school / parental engagement or intervention which could be put in place to enable more MD40 pupils to progress to HE. 2) The most effective methods to prepare MD40 pupils for the transition to HE. 3) The most effective and appropriate time(s) to conduct any intervention. 4) Where to engage pupils / parents. Project findings have been stark; the problem UoG suspected may exist does, and in a most regimented way. Thousands of pupils are suffering disadvantage and not progressing to HE from higher progression schools. Analysis of the conclusions has been provided, drawing on 8
this project data and the broad experience gained by UoG in running far-reaching WP / Access programmes for many years in the most deprived areas of Scotland. Recommendations are provided for a wide number of stakeholders including: Scottish Government, the Scottish Funding Council, universities, colleges, schools and the new Commissioner for Fair Access. These and the results of this research are intended to aid the sector in taking widening access forward over the coming years to provide the step-change necessary to reach the widening access targets set for 2030 and make real and material changes to the lives of thousands of talented, but disenfranchised young people and, while so doing, create a better, fairer Scotland.
1. Level of disadvantage for MD20/40 pupils in high progression schools Pupils experiencing socio-economic deprivation and disadvantage attend every school in the west of Scotland. There is a statistically significant negative correlation between socioeconomic disadvantage in terms of MD20 / 40 postcode and progression to HE (p
