Nov 1, 2016 - IS THIS THE END OF THE SOFT MARKET? ... Traditionally, every underwriter writes business at their own term
PLANE TALKING AVIATION NEWSLETTER NOVEMBER 2016 EDITION
LEAD LINES
RENEWAL ANALYSIS
LOSS ANALYSIS
ALSO IN THIS ISSUE
Toby Ward Talks Hayward Aviation and the General Aviation (GA) Market...
November as expected was a busy month for the aviation insurance market with...
November recorded fewer losses than in recent months, yet witnessed the largest loss of life...
Market News
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8/9
Ratings Changes
8
Arrivals & Departures
9
Executive Summary IS THIS THE END OF THE SOFT MARKET? November and December are the months that ultimately dictate the annual statistics and determine the direction the market will take as we enter the new year. With the November placements now wrapped up, and our knowledge of the December renewals that have already been concluded, our analysis highlights increased signs that market conditions are changing. Renewal results have become extremely segmented and as such there is great disparity amongst the statistics. Capacity remains a key factor and it is clear that increased underwriting discipline/selectivity is now having a greater effect. Whilst theorectical capacity levels haven’t reduced, and we are yet to see any significant withdrawals, the reality is that the available capacity at a competitive level of pricing has become very limited. Markets are now prepared to reduce their overall line sizes if they are not happy with the level of pricing offered, despite any long-term relationships that they may have. Likewise underwriters are now also declining more risks due to pricing, regardless of any negative effect on their premium income. These factors mean that a large portion of available market capacity now exists in a dormant state, waiting for its required criteria to be met before it returns. Price differentiation is also a key point. We often talk of the market as if it moves as one, when in reality this is not the case as it consists of numerous participants, each of whom have differing tolerances and philosophies which ultimately effect the price of each account. Traditionally, every underwriter writes business at their own terms, usually at a reduction to that of the leader, however this market verticalisation is now regularly flipped on its head resulting in a price which is higher than lead terms. This too is an important signal that placing business at a competitive price is becoming harder. December could well end up being the most interesting renewal month in recent years.
2 AEROSPACE | PLANE TALKING | NOVEMBER 2016
AUTHOR PROFILE
Toby Ward Managing Director - Hayward Aviation
Lead Lines - Toby Ward Talks Hayward Aviation and the General Aviation (GA) Market Hayward Aviation was acquired by the JLT Group in December 2014, since joining how has Hayward’s integrated with the JLT Aerospace team?
discuss key trends. However, we have
The merger brought two like-minded
Underwriters but new Leaders, seeking
aviation broking businesses together so
to grow their account portfolios – strong
“culturally” we have fitted together easily.
evidence that with excess capacity in the
Servicing our clients is paramount;
GA market, “(under)writing for market
helping to solve their insurance needs –
share” is a driving factor for some
we share these goals. Inevitably, there
Insurers.
seen evidence that the most significant rate reductions for larger clients are no longer offered by their expiring Lead
has been and still is a huge amount of Biography
work in the background that needs to
Toby has been in the insurance market
happen – but JLT’s Group resources and
since 1977, starting his career with Cayzer
enthusiasm has helped make this easier.
What do you see as the biggest threat to the General Aviation insurance market?
The two businesses neatly slotted
Ultimately, a series of catastrophe losses
together, with complementary skills.
and a capacity crunch are the main
When we have needed to, we’re been
threats to this market but realistically
able to exploit our combined resources
we don’t see any significant threats to
to support our clients and we hope
the GA insurance market because it is
that we are now better able to support
so geographically diffuse. The biggest
clients globally, working with JLT
threat to the sector is the sector itself.
He joined Hayward Aviation, immediately
group operations worldwide as a more
General Aviation; business aviation;
following its formation, as a Director,
focussed GA offering.
private aviation, depending on what
Steel Bowater, a Lloyd’s broker involved in major fixed and rotary wing accounts. In 1982 Toby joined John Plumer and Partners (now Arthur J Gallagher UK) and was appointed Director in 1986, where his role was to develop business and service major clients.
you call it can be sensitive to global
responsible for developing and overseeing Hayward’s growing client base. He was appointed Managing Director in 1999.
What are conditions in the General Aviation insurance market like at present? While it is hard to provide industry statistics on average rates within GA
economic conditions. We saw this between 2008-2010, when order books for new private jets slowed in line with the global recession, triggering off closures, consolidation and retrenchment.
compared to, for example, commercial
Two areas may potentially have a
airlines, the general trend is positive for
disproportionate impact on the GA
most GA insurance buyers. We are
sector. The explosion in drones
routinely offering our clients greater cover
numbers is a real threat to all current,
for less money.
airspace users. While the nightmare scenario of a drone hitting a passenger
What have been the key trends witnessed during 2016? Want to feature in Lead Lines? If so then please contact us at:
[email protected]
The GA market is more regionalised or even country by country than the commercial airline insurance sector, where access to markets globally is essential. It’s harder therefore, in GA, to
airline is very real, smaller GA aircraft are also vulnerable. The toxic combination of a private jet crashing due to a drone collision would fuel the anti-private aviation section of society to even greater levels than is often seen when a private GA aircraft crashes. Continued on page 3
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“While it is hard to provide industry statistics on average rates within GA compared to, for example, commercial airlines, the general trend is positive for most GA insurance buyers.”
Continued from page 2
Likewise the risk of terrorist groups
of anticipation about the introduction
and the European Aviation Safety Agency
hijacking GA aircraft for hostile intent is a
of single engine turbo prop aircraft
(EASA). The UK is a major European
potential threat to the sector that would
entering the charter market in the next 12
hub actively involved in developing
have a ripple effect across the globe in
months.
GA airspace, standards and services.
the event of such an unpleasant incident.
Operationally, GA continues to fill in the gaps where one-size-fits-all commercial
Similarly, where do you see the biggest opportunities for the General Aviation sector?
“We are focussing on
Across the world there are always
responsive.”
being flexible, creative and
the size and relatively low barriers to appear each year – while often other sectors take a downturn. Whereas in early 2016 we saw the consolidation of a number of European GA (business
this is likely to continue and may even grow pre-and post-Brexit. Finally, what can we expect from Hayward Aviation in 2017?
opportunities for the GA sector. Given entry for GA operators, new GA hotspots
aviation operations don’t operate and
With this in mind, what is the outlook for the General Aviation market in 2017 in your opinion?
In 2017… more of the same – our client
The outlook is positively mixed – some
deliver real value to our clients – not just
retention levels are high and we want to keep it that way. We will continue to
sectors will boom, others will find
lower premiums.
business hard. Nimble operators who
We have successfully grown our
can switch around will continue to do
business over the past 25 years by being
well. The same can be applied to the GA
problem-solvers for our clients’ aviation
The aviation oil-industry support sector
insurance sector – we are focussing on
risks. As this business continues to get
has had a tough 18 months but as the
being flexible, creative and responsive.
more complex rather than less, JLT’s
price of oil rises, demand will come back.
Insurers with a similar strategy will thrive;
focus on serving those sectors where we
Developing regions, notably China are an
others won’t but there will always be new
can bring the greatest insight, innovation
obvious opportunity but success in the
insurers attracted to this global sector.
and imagination to clients’ risks aligns
Any outlook for the next 12-18 months
neatly with what the GA sector wants.
aviation) operations, there are fewer opportunities in 2017 and beyond for similar consolidations.
global GA sector isn’t necessarily about being big but nimble, able to jump into new opportunities quickly.
cannot ignore Brexit and the possible impacts. Structurally, there will be many
Looking specifically within the
issues to resolve such as collaboration
European GA sector, there is a sense
between the UK Civil Aviation Authority
We’ll keep doing what we are good at, in the tried and tested old-fashioned “service, service and service” way!
4 AEROSPACE | PLANE TALKING | NOVEMBER 2016
Renewal Analysis The larger selection of renewals in November provide us with a far better view of current market conditions than we have seen in recent months. On analysis of these renewals it is evident that underwriters are taking a harder stance to that seen throughout the year. Whilst we continue to observe a three-tier market, it is clear that underwriting discipline and risk selectivity are having a greater influence on results, both positively and negatively dependent on each individuals circumstances and profile. As such it has now become increasingly difficult to report monthly average figures for the market as a whole when conditions and pricing are so segmented. That said, the overall subjective summary is that it is becoming more and more difficult to place airline business with aviation underwriters at the competitive terms that the market has become accustomed to.
THE ‘THREE-TIER’ MARKET VIEW TIER A Airline/Type
Market Sentiment
• Airlines with low-limits.
• Still achieving rate reductions based on individual levels of growth.
• Often single type fleets/smaller narrowbody aircraft. • Typically showing high fleet/ traffic growth.
Rate Change/Direction
• Higher capacity available due to lower limits. • Seen to have a lower Probable Maximum Loss (PML).
• Generally good loss record.
HARD
SOFT
HARD
TIER B Airline/Type
Market Sentiment
Rate Change/Direction
• Airlines with high-limits.
• Generally flat renewals.
• Often mixed fleets/large aircraft.
• Restricted capacity levels due to high-limits.
• Typically showing low fleet/ traffic growth.
• Differentials between lead and following prices being squeezed.
• Variable loss records.
• Seen to have a higher Probable HARD Maximum Loss SOFT (PML).
HARD
HARD
SOFT
TIER C Airline/Type
Market Sentiment
Rate Change/Direction
• Airlines affected by major losses.
• Receiving rate increases and penalties.
HARD
SOFT
HARD
SOFT
• Capacity now extremely limited.
• Airlines with poor attritional loss records.
HARD
• Receiving added scrutiny from underwriters. • Strong focus point as underwriters look to reduce the loss factor in their portfolios. SOFT HARD SOFT
HARD
SOFT
HARD
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Renewal Comment NOVEMBER AIRLINE RENEWALS
FORTHCOMING AIRLINE RENEWALS
November as expected was a busy
Around 100 airline insurance renewals
month for the aviation insurance
are expected to take place in December,
December Renewals
market with an increased schedule of
generating more premium than any other
The 5 largest airline renewals in December
activity taking place not only in terms
month and approximately 45% of the
are shown in the table below:
of the November placements but the
total amount for the year. Much of the
negotiations for forthcoming December
renewal activity is concentrated in the
renewals.
early part of the month and around just
Around half of the airlines on the November renewals list have fleets valued over USD1 billion and amongst
128.4bn
22 Dec
37.9bn
1 Dec
27.7bn
United Continental
31 Dec
22.8bn
Cathay Pacific
15 Dec
20.9bn
American Airlines
the current trend.
in fact the largest airline insurance
in our last edition.
1 Dec
these renewal results continue to support
The largest renewal in December and
additional changes from those reported
Expiring AFV (USD)
C.A.A.C.
in the world.
November renewals, we recorded no
Renewal Date
Airline
a handful of dates. Early indications of
them were some of the biggest carriers
Following the conclusion of the
FORTHCOMING AIRLINE RENEWALS*
placement in the world is the C.A.A.C.
Air France/KLM Group
Group of China with a combined fleet valued at around USD128 billion. Approximately half of the renewals list have fleets valued in excess of USD1
January Renewals The 5 largest airline renewals in January are shown in the table below:
billion and major carriers from all regions
Renewal Date
Expiring AFV (USD)
Libyan African Group
30 Jan
1.5bn
Conviasa
16 Jan
841.2m
their policies into December, these are
Gainjet Aviation
26 Jan
364.5m
Fuji Dream and Tarom.
TACV - Cabo Verde
1 Jan
126.6m
A number of accounts come to market
Tailwind Airlines
6 Jan
108.4m
of the world are represented amongst the list. This year the renewals list will see two additional carriers after they extended
Airline
having moved broker, these include: Avianca/Synergy Group which has moved to JLT from Marsh, Royal Air Maroc which has moved to JLT from Willis, UTAir which has moved to JLT from UIB and China Airlines moving to
February Renewals The 5 largest airline renewals in February are shown in the table below:
Aon from JLT.
Renewal Date
Expiring AFV (USD)
Solaseed Air
20 Feb
521.1m
ACT Airlines
12 Feb
377.0m
TAME
9 Feb
374.5m
Hi Fly
5 Feb
268.8m
14 Feb
59.6m
Airline
Swiftair
*Airlines with AFV >USD50m. Source: JLT.
6 AEROSPACE | PLANE TALKING | NOVEMBER 2016
11
Loss Analysis
NOVEMBER AIRLINE LOSS SUMMARY*
NOVEMBER AIRLINE LOSSES Delta Air Lines
HULL LOSS ESTIMATE: TBC
01/11/2016 0 Fatalities
B737-800 (N395DN)
USA
Whilst undergoing a maintenance A check at New York - JFK, a fire erupted in the avionics bay. The bay and the cockpit were covered in fire suppressant agent. The extent of damage is unknown but localised.
LIABILITY LOSS ESTIMATE: USD 25m
09/11/2016 0 Fatalities
B737-400SF (HK-5139)
NUMBER OF FATALITIES:
AerCaribe
Colombia
71
The aircraft was performing a flight from Leticia to Bogota (Colombia). Upon landing in Bogota it suffered damage to both main gear struts, causing all main gear wheels to rotate out of their correct movement of direction. The right hand gear wheels also damaged the runway surface and the right hand tyres burst.
All Known Airline Losses Net of Deductible
Lufthansa Cargo
MD11-F (D-ALCM)
100
Argentina
500
80
The aircraft, performing a freight flight from Brazil, suffered damage to its nose gear upon landing in Argentina. The entire left nose wheel separated from the gear leg and the underside of the fuselage received substantial damage as a result of the debris which was thrown 80 up. 400
60
QantasLink 60
B717-200 300 (VH-YQU)
Australia
USDm
13/11/2016 0 Fatalities
USDm
USDm
100
10/11/2016 0 Fatalities
The aircraft sustained damage whilst parked at Brisbane Airport when a powerful storm swept through the area. The aircraft suffered puncture damage to the fuselage skin in a 40 of places when ground equipment was blown in to 200 number it. A number of other parked aircraft are also reported to have received damage albeit relatively minor.
40
20
20
LAMIA Bolivia 0
NOV. 2015 Hull
NOV. 2016
Liabilities
*Figures shown are provided only as a guide. Not all losses include a reserve estimate and are reflected in the figures. Excludes Hull War hull reserves. Source: JLT.
100
28/11/2016 71 Fatalities
Avro RJ-85 (CP-2933)
Colombia
The aircraft was destroyed after impacting mountainous terrain south of Medellin, 0 0 2015 was carrying FEB.the 2016Brazilian Chapecoense football MAR. 2015 to a match MAR. 2016 Colombia. TheFEB. aircraft team in Medellin. 71 of the 77 people on board perished. Reports suggest the aircraft may Hull of fuel. Liabilities Hull Liabilities have run out
Fly Jamaica Airways
29/11/2016 0 Fatalities
B767-319ER (N767WA)
Jamaica
The parked plane was hit by the wing of a Caribbean Airlines aircraft that had just landed. The Fly Jamaica aircraft sustained substantial damage to its tail cone. The Caribbean aircraft received only minor damage. No injuries were reported.
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Loss Summary November recorded fewer losses than in
Of the other incidents in November the
recent months, yet witnessed the largest
majority are only expected to produce
loss of life seen since the Egyptair crash
minor hull claims, however it is too early
earlier in May.
to speculate on values as many of them are yet to have been assessed by the
This was due to a LAMIA Bolivia RJ-85
USD 490.2m
tragically killing 71 of the 77 people
The losses in November have brought
on-board. The aircraft, which was
the combined 2016 Hull and Liability
LIABILITY LOSS ESTIMATE:
transporting the Brazilian Chapecoense
figure to around USD1.03 billion for
football team to a match in Medellin, is
the year to date (including an attritional
reported to have run out of fuel.
estimate). As always not all losses reported include a reserve estimate and
In terms of aviation insurance, the
USD 85.9m NUMBER OF FATALITIES: 241
are yet to be reflected in this figure.
Liability policy is known to have been
400
HULL LOSS ESTIMATE:
relevant loss adjusters.
aircraft which crashed in Colombia
500
YEAR TO DATE AIRLINE LOSS SUMMARY*
placed in the London market. Yet despite
Despite the fact the we have just weeks
the loss involving a large number of
left until year-end it is still unwise to make
fatalities the subsequent liability claim will
any assumptions of what the final claims
be of relatively modest value due to the
position may be. That said, the present 500
policy having a low limit in place. In terms
market position remains better than at
of Hull cover it is unknown where this
this point in recent years.
is placed, however it is believed that it
400
All Known Airline Losses Net of Deductible 2000
1500
200
300
USDm
USDm
300
5 Year Average
1000
200
5 YEAR AIRLINE PREMIUM VS. CLAIMS 500 2000
100
100
Combined Hull & Liability Premium Combined Hull & Liability Claims
0
MAR. 2015
Hull
0
MAR. 2016
1500
Liabilities
Q1 2015
Hull
Q1 2016
0
2013
2014
2015
2016 YTD
Liabilities
USDm
USDm
could be insured in the Russian market.
1000
*Figures shown are provided only as a guide. Not all losses include a reserve estimate and are reflected in the figures. Excludes Hull War hull reserves. Source: JLT.
500
0 2012
2013
2014
2015
2016 YTD
*Figures shown are provided only as a guide. Premium (like for like basis), at Lead terms. Claims figures include an annual attritional estimate and exclude hull reserves for Hull War losses. Based on the latest Information as at 30 Nov. 2016. Source: JLT
8 AEROSPACE | PLANE TALKING | NOVEMBER 2016
Market News SIGNIFICANT RATINGS CHANGES •
•
Axis Capital to acquire Aviabel
Airshow China 2016
Bermudian re/insurer Axis Capital
The 11th China International Aviation and
announced that it has agreed to acquire
Aerospace Exhibition (Airshow China)
Belgium-based aviation re/insurer
took place 1-6 November in Zhuhai,
(S&P) has affirmed the “AA- ” financial
Aviabel.
South China’s Guangdong province and
strength ratings of Tokio Marine
Specific terms of the deal were not
HCC and its core insurance company
disclosed, but Axis said it will maintain
subsidiaries. The outlook for these
Aviabel’s offices in Brussels and
Civil aviation orders totalled 187 aircraft,
ratings is stable.
Amsterdam and retain the Aviabel brand,
of which Commercial Aircraft Corporation
including Dutch brand Nederlandse
of China (COMAC) registered the majority
Ratings agency AM Best has affirmed
Luchtvaartpool.
share with commitments for 96 jets.
the financial strength rating of “A”
Axis Capital said the acquisition of
(Excellent) of Aspen Insurance and
Aviabel would support the expansion of
its subsidiaries. The outlook for these
its global aviation operation.
Ratings agency Standard & Poor’s
ratings is stable. Liberty Mutual to acquire Ironshore •
Ratings agency AM Best has affirmed
Liberty Mutual Insurance announced that
the financial strength rating of “A+”
it is to acquire specialty insurer Ironshore
(Superior) of Munich Re and its
in a deal valued at USD3 billion.
subsidiaries. The outlook for the
This consisted of orders for 40 ARJ21700 regional jets for China Aerospace Leasing, 36 of its in-development C919 for CITIC Financial and 20 C919s for SPDB Financial. Rockwell Collins to acquire B/E Aerospace Rockwell Collins and B/E Aerospace announced that they have entered into
a definitive agreement to acquire a
a definitive agreement under which
100% interest in Ironshore from Hong
Rockwell Collins will acquire B/E
Ratings agency AM Best has affirmed
Kong-based parent company, Fosun
Aerospace for USD8.3 billion in total
the financial strength rating of “A”
International.
consideration.
Liberty Mutual said the transaction,
The deal is expected to be completed
which is expected to close in the first half
next spring, subject to the relevant
of 2017, would add “scale, expertise,
shareholder and regulatory approvals.
(Excellent) of Barents Re. The rating outlook remains stable.
•
USD40 billion, the organiser said.
Liberty Mutual said today it signed
ratings is stable.
•
recorded a total of 402 deals worth over
Ratings agency AM Best has affirmed
innovation and market relationships” to
the financial strength rating of “A”
its USD5 billion global specialty business.
(Excellent) of Mapfre Re and Mapfre Global Risks. The outlook of the
Faraday to write Hull Deductible
ratings remains stable.
business Faraday Underwriting Limited Syndicate 435 announced that they will be offering Hull Deductible Insurance and Reinsurance solutions for aviation clients with immediate effect. Paul Maguire,
A350-1000 takes off on maiden flight Airbus has commenced the flight-test campaign for the A350-1000 with the variant becoming airborne for the first time at Toulouse. The aircraft, powered by Rolls-Royce Trent XWB-97 engines, lifted off at 10:42 local time.
Head of Aviation, will oversee the Hull
Deliveries of the aircraft are scheduled to
Deductible portfolio with support from
begin in the second half of 2017.
other members of the Faraday team.
News continued on page 9
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News continued from page 8
Etihad to launch new European leisure
European Aviation Network completes
airline group
first flight trials
Etihad announced that its board
The European Aviation Network (EAN)
has approved plans to create a new
has taken to the skies. Inmarsat and
European leisure airline group in a joint
Deutsche Telekom, together with
venture with TUI AG.
their technology partners Nokia and
Headquartered in Vienna with a fleet of around 60 aircraft, the new leisure airline
programme of test flights in the UK. This is a major milestone in the
April 2017. It will serve a broad network
development of EAN, the world’s first
of destinations from Germany, Austria
integrated satellite and air-to-ground
and Switzerland.
network dedicated to providing a true
agreement for Etihad to acquire the 49.8% share indirectly held by Air Berlin in its subsidiary airline NIKI Luftfahrt GmbH, the release added. At closing of the transaction, Etihad will immediately contribute the share in NIKI to the new European leisure airline group and will not effectively control, or
in-flight broadband experience for the
Europe. The flights serve to test the performance of the EAN system including the onboard equipment being provided by Thales and the ground network provided by Deutsche Telekom and Nokia.
contribute its subsidiary TUIfly GmbH to
in September 2015, Deutsche Telekom
the joint venture.
and Nokia have made steady progress
holding a 25% stake. The remaining 50.2% will continue to be held by the existing private foundation NIKI Privatstiftung.
and are on track to deliver the ground component of the project, with the onschedule rollout of the approximately 300 antenna sites and connecting the network live over-the-air. In parallel, Inmarsat and Thales are advancing with implementing the satellite communication
The transaction is subject to approvals
for EAN, having completed construction
by aviation regulatory bodies and anti-
and associated sub-system tests of the
trust authorities.
satellite earlier this year. With the test flight program now underway, the EAN
IFC to acquire Red Wings Airlines Russian lessor Ilyushin Finance Company (IFC) announced that it will acquire 100% of the shares of Red Wings Airlines. The company will buy the airline’s assets from its current owner Sky Invest before the end of the year. The deal will be subject to the relevant regulatory approvals.
underwriter, effective immediately.
•
Stephen Jedburgh and Simon Hennessey have left their respective positions at Antares.
•
Martin Rossiter has left his position as Head of Global Aviation at Generali.
millions of passengers travelling across
Since the initial announcement of EAN
the joint venture company, with Etihad
Chubb Global Markets has appointed Richard Bayman as deputy aviation
European aviation industry and for
become a majority owner of NIKI. TUI will
TUI AG will hold 24.8% of shares in
•
Thales have successfully conducted a
group is scheduled to begin operations in
The planned transaction includes an
AVIATION ARRIVALS & DEPARTURES
introduction is planned for mid-2017.
•
Dan Rose has left his position in the aviation underwriting team at Faraday.
10 AEROSPACE | PLANE TALKING | NOVEMBER 2016
JLT Specialty’s Aerospace practice is one of the world’s leading insurance and risk management service providers. We have developed an unparalleled reputation and enviable respect throughout this challenging, highly specialist market. Noted for our client-focused service, innovation, negotiating skills and integrity we possess the market presence and momentum to help us deliver the very best results for our clients.
CONTACTS SUBSCRIPTIONS & GENERAL QUERIES
[email protected] EDITORIAL TEAM Richard Adams Aerospace, JLT Specialty Limited +44 (0) 207 466 5220
[email protected] Brad Hills Aerospace, JLT Specialty Limited +44 (0) 207 466 1434
[email protected] BUSINESS CONTACTS Nigel Weyman Aerospace, JLT Specialty Limited +44 (0) 207 466 1448
[email protected] William Smith Aerospace, JLT Specialty Limited +44 (0) 207 466 6654
[email protected]
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