A vast majority in this group think that they should be given the right to stay until they can return to their country o
POLISH
PUBLICOPINION 4/2016
Solid and Professional
ISSN 2083-1714
CONTENTS
Attitude to other nationalities
Attitude to other nationalities
The best-liked nationalities are Czechs, Italians, Slovaks and the English. About half of Poles have positive attitude to them. At least two-fifths of respondents have good feelings for Spaniards, Americans, Hungarians, the French, the Dutch and Swedes. Almost two-fifths are positive about Austrians and the Japanese. Sympathy for these nationalities is more widespread than antipathy and negative feelings are expressed by no more than two-fifths of respondents. About a third of respondents have positive feelings about Germans, Greeks and Lithuanians, while about a Attitude to other nationalities Mean* quarter express bad value Czechs 50% 30% 13% 7% 0,72 emotions.
Attitude to migration crisis after Brussels attacks Public opinion about the Constitutional Tribunal crisis Legal availability of abortion
IN ADDITION
TO THE REPORTS REFERRED TO ABOVE, THE FOLLOWING HAVE BEEN PUBLISHED RECENTLY (IN POLISH): · Poles about Explaining of the Smolensk
Air Disaster on the Eve of Its 6th Anniversary · Attitudes towards Refugees in Poland
and Czech Republic · Party Preferences in the First Week of
April · The 1050 Anniversary of the Baptism of
Poland · Opinions about Public Institutions · Attitude to Government in April · Social Moods in April · Trust in Politicians in April · Subjective Safety and Crime Risk · What's Next for People with Swiss Franc-
Denominated Mortgages? · Material Living Conditions · Terrorist Threat after the Attacks in
Brussels · Financing Public Media · Opinions about the Constitutional
Tribunal · Historical Consciousness in Poland
Negative feelings are equally common as positive or prevail in attitudes to the other nationalities in the study. About a quarter of respondents have positive a t t i t u d e t o U k ra i n i a n s , Bulgarians, Chinese, Byelorussians and Jews. In case of Bulgarians positive and negative emotions are e q u a l l y co m m o n , w h i l e negative feelings prevail in attitudes to the other nationalities in this group. A fifth of respondents have a f r i e n d l y a t t i t u d e to t h e Vietnamese, Serbs and Russians, but antipathy to Russians is far more common than to Serbs and the Vietnamese. Less than a fifth of respondents have warm fe e l i n g s to Tu r k s a n d Romanians, while almost half are negative towards them. Dominance of bad emotions is clear in attitudes to the Roma and Arabs.
Italians
49%
31%
13% 7%
0,74
Slovaks
48%
31%
13% 8%
0,75 0,61
English
47%
30%
16% 7%
Spaniards
46%
31%
14% 9%
0,64
17%
0,58
Americans
46%
Hungarians
45%
French
43%
Dutch
41%
30% 30%
17%
32%
7% 9%
18%
0,63
7%
0,53
32%
16%
11%
0,54
Swedes
40%
32%
16%
12%
0,52
Austrians
38%
34%
17%
11%
0,45
12%
0,40
Japanese
38%
30%
Germans
37%
32%
34%
Greeks
26%
31%
31%
Lithuanians
20%
25%
31%
27%
Ukrainians
27%
33%
34%
Bulgarians
26%
38%
26%
Chinese
25%
Byelorussians
25%
35%
28%
32%
Jews
23%
31%
Vietnamese
21%
33%
Serbs
20%
Russians
20%
32% 37% 32%
30%
35%
24%
50%
5%
0,20
10%
0,24
11%
0,13
6%
-0,18
11%
0,01
11%
-0,10
11%
-0,12
9%
-0,32
14%
-0,22
15%
-0,32
6%
-0,71
Turks
16%
28%
45%
11%
-0,63
Romanians
15%
29%
47%
9%
-0,73
Roma 11% (Gypsies) Arabs 8%
17%
67%
16%
Sympathy (points 3 to 1 on a scale)
67% Indifference (point 0)
Antipathy (points -1 to -3 on a scale)
5% 9%
-1,33 -1,51
Don't know
*Average values on the scale from -3 (max. antipathy) to +3 (max. sympathy)
Attitude to other nationalities is influenced by many factors: national stereotypes, historical legacies, personal experience, current events and political relations between countries inhabited by the nationalities. Better attitudes are recorded for nationalities enjoying high standard of living, as they are a positive reference point, while feelings for nationalities characterised by
lower standard of living are worse. The Pearson linear correlation coefficient between the mean attitude to a given nationality and the standard of living in the country inhabited by these people (measured by the Human Development Index, used by the United Nations for international comparison) is very high at 0.72 (Roma, Arabs and Jews were excluded from this calculation). In the last year the attitude to most nationalities included in the survey became worse. The biggest decline was recorded in relation to Roma (a drop of mean value by 0.40 on a 7-point scale), Turks (decrease by 0.39), Greeks (decrease by 0.29), Ukrainians (decrease by 0.29) and Germans (decrease by 0.26). Moreover, the attitude towards Arabs decreased strongly in the last four years (decrease of the mean value by 1.00). The deterioration of attitudes to many nationalities can probably be linked to the migration crisis and terrorist attacks. Analyses indicate that the attitude to other nationalities is related to the attitude to refugees. Respondents who support accepting refugees declare sympathy to other nationalities more often than Poles opposed to this policy (on average they expressed positive feelings to 10.5 and 7.4 nationalities, respectively), while antipathy is less common in supporters of accepting refugees than among opponents (antipathy to 6.2 and 9.1 nationalities, respectively).
Should Poland accept refugees from countries affected by military conflict?
(%)
14
56%
In April attitudes to accepting refugees in Poland deteriorated. It is probably related to recent Islamist terrorist attacks in Europe. The level of openness to refugees from areas affected by military conflicts is at the lowest level since May 2015. At present only a third of Poles think that Poland should offer them at least temporary refuge. A vast majority in this group think that they should be given the right to stay until they can return to their country of origin, while only very few people think that refugees should have the right to settle in Poland. Acceptance of at least temporary asylum for refugees declined by 11 percentage points from March to April 2016. Moreover, the proportion of people who oppose receiving refugees from areas affected by armed conflict increased by 9 points. They are three times more numerous than in May 2015.
2
56%
8
54%
8
41%
42%
4
4
33%
44%
39%
50
37
37
35
53
53
57
3 30
40
46
48
58
38
61 53
43
40
21 7
6
V 2015
4
VIII 2015
5
6
5
4
6
XII 2015
I 2016
II 2016
III 2016
IV 2016
3
IX 2015
X 2015
No, Poland should not receive refugees
Yes, we should let them stay in Poland until they can return to their land of origin
Yes, we should receive them and let them settle
Don't know
There has been an increase in disapproval of receiving refugees arriving in Europe from the Middle East and Africa. At present only a quarter of respondents accept resettling some of them in Poland, with very few strongly supporting this policy. Opponents of relocating refugees constitute 71% of the total, in which two-thirds are strongly against. Do you agree that Poland should receive a part of refugees arriving in Europe from the Middle East and Africa? 100%
80% 30% 60%
30%
32%
20%
14%
0% V 2015
7%
8%
6%
3%
21%
Attitude to migration crisis after Brussels attacks
6
4
72%
40%
More information about this topic can be found in CBOS report in Polish: "Attitudes towards Other Nations", April 2016. Fieldwork for national sample: March 2016, N=1034. The random address sample is representative for adult population of Poland.
5
38%
36%
29%
19%
21%
26%
29%
30%
9%
6%
VIII 2015
Strongly agree
X 2015
3% 27%
2% 24%
3% 26%
2% 23%
30%
26%
27%
31%
28%
34%
37%
40%
36%
43%
7%
6%
I 2016
II 2016
6%
6%
IX 2015
5% 25%
XII 2015
Moderately agree
Moderately disagree
Strongly disagree
4% III 2016
4% IV 2016
Don't know
Opinions on that matter are strongly differentiated by age. People below the age 45 are relatively the most negative about accepting refugees from Africa and the Middle East. Moreover, the younger the respondents, the more common is strong opposition to the resettlement of this group of refugees from other EU countries to Poland. The attitude to receiving Ukrainian refugees from areas affected by armed conflict has remained constant in recent months. In April 60% supported this policy while one-third opposed it. Do you agree that Poland should grant international protection to Ukrainian refugees from the armed conflict areas? 100%
11%
13%
15%
14%
13%
12%
12%
48%
46%
46%
48%
47%
50%
46%
18% 10% 11%
20% 14% 5%
20%
18%
19%
18%
17%
13% 7%
13% 8%
15% 7%
15% 5%
16% 7%
IX 2015
X 2015
XII 2015
I 2016
II 2016
III 2016
Moderately disagree
Strongly disagree
14%
80%
39% 60% 40% 22% 20% 16%
12%
0% VIII 2015
Strongly agree
Moderately agree
Don't know
IV 2016
In the last seven months the proportion of Poles convinced that the migration crisis may cause the breakup of the European Union has increased markedly. The majority (58%) share this opinion at present. Do you agree that the migration crisis may cause the collapse of the European Union? 4% IX 2015
10%
33%
32%
Constitutional Tribunal about the unconstitutionality of the amendment is wrong, while 22% of respondents think it is right. Did Beata Szydło, the Prime Minister, make the correct decision in refusing to publish the judgement of the Constitutional Tribunal judging the amendment to the Constitutional Tribunal Act to be unconstitutional?
21% Moderately correct
2% IV 2016
15%
43%
25%
Moderately incorrect
15%
25%
12% 10%
Strongly agree
Moderately agree
Moderately disagree
Strongly disagree
Strongly incorrect
More information about this topic can be found in CBOS report in Polish: "Migrant Crisis after the Attacks in Brussels", April 2016. Fieldwork for national sample: April 2016, N=1104. The random address sample is representative for adult population of Poland.
Public opinion about the Constitutional Tribunal crisis In recent weeks the conflict around the Constitutional Tribunal has aggravated. On 9 March the Tribunal judged the December amendment to the Constitutional Tribunal Act to be unconstitutional. It ruled that the legislative process in the course of which the amendment Act was enacted was defective. Moreover, it ruled that the amendment made it impossible for the Constitutional Tribunal to carry out its activity diligently and efficiently and infringed the principles of a state ruled by law. The government of Beata Szydło does not accept the judgement of the Constitutional Tribunal and refuses to publish it. The publication of this judgement was recommended by the Venice Commission and the European Parliament in a recent resolution. The amendment to the Constitutional Tribunal Act was one of the reasons for the start of procedure monitoring the rule of law in Poland. Almost half of respondents (45%) believe that the Tribunal and the oppositional parties and groups are right in this conflict, while more than a quarter (29%) support Law and Justice (PiS) and current authorities. Which side do you support in the conflict around the Constitutional Tribunal? 29% Constitutional Tribunal and groups and parties in opposition to PiS
Strongly correct
Don't know
Governing party and current authorities
45% 26% Don't know
The majority of Polish public opinion (55%) share the view that the refusal to publish the judgement of the
30%
23%
Don't know
Public opinion is far from unequivocal in evaluating the conflict around the Constitutional Tribunal. At the same time, some parties of that conflict are more reliable than others. The most reliable is the Constitutional Tribunal: over half of respondents (51%) think that it performs its duties well and guards democracy and the rule of law in Poland. At the same time, the majority (52%) reject the opinion that it places itself above the law and wants to paralyze the activities of the authorities. The latter view is shared by slightly more than a quarter (26%) of respondents. The actions of the Venice Commission and the European Union are evaluated in a less clear-cut manner. Almost half of respondents (47%) agree that the EU, its politicians and institutions care about the state of democracy and the rule of law in Poland. However, a similar group (45%) believe that the EU from the beginning had a negative attitude to PiS and supports the opposition. Almost half of respondents (47%) give good rating to the Venice Commission and believe it supports democracy and the rule of law in Poland. However, over two-fifths (43%) think that it does not have the full picture of Poland and does not understand what is happening here. The actions of the opposition are controversial. The proportions of people agreeing with the idea that it is motivated by the concern about democracy and the rule of law (39%) and disagreeing with it (38%) are practically the same. However, the plurality of Poles (42%) reject the claim that the opposition wants to abolish the legally elected authorities. About a third (33%) accuse the opposition of undermining the results of the elections with the intention of delegitimizing the authorities. The most critical (though not uniform) opinions are directed at the governing party. The proportions of people who think that PiS wants to increase the effectiveness of government (40%) and reject this claim (42%) are similar. Almost half of respondents (49%) think that PiS wants to paralyze the Constitutional Tribunal and govern without any control.
3
Do you agree with the following opinions about the conflict around the Constitutional Tribunal? PiS wants to paralyze the Constitutional Tribunal and govern without any control
26%
23%
20%
14%
17%
PiS wants to increase the effectiveness of government
12%
28%
26%
16%
18%
Constitutional Tribunal places itself above the law and wants to paralyze the activities of the authorities
9%
17%
32%
20%
22%
Constitutional Tribunal performs its duties correctly and guards democracy and the rule of law in Poland
17%
34%
15%
9%
25%
22%
27%
15%
Bad material situation and unwillingness to have children should not constitute legal grounds for abortion, in the opinion of the majority of respondents. Three quarters reject it in these cases. In general, acceptance of legal abortion in circumstances not included in the law is continuously diminishing. The acceptance of abortion in cases when it is currently legal is also falling, but not as steeply.
The opposition wants to abolish the legally elected authorities with the help of the Constitutional Tribunal
11%
which is a threat to her life or health, or if it began with rape or incest is quite widespread (80%, 71% and 73% of respondents, respectively). The acceptance of abortion in case of a defect of the foetus is less common. Nevertheless, the majority of respondents (53%) allow for abortion in such circumstances, while 30% have the opposite opinion.
25%
The opposition is motivated by the concern about democracy and the rule of law
10%
29%
24%
14%
23%
Should abortion be legally available if… Percentage of affirmative answers
European Union, its politicians and institutions are motivated by the concern about democracy and the rule of law
11%
36%
23%
100 90
11%
19%
80 70
European Union, its politicians and institutions have a negative attitude to PiS and support the opposition
60 50
14%
31%
23%
8%
24%
40 30
Venice Commission is motivated by the concern about democracy and the rule of law
13%
34%
16%
7%
20 10
30%
0 Strongly agree
Moderately agree
Moderately disagree
Strongly disagree
'92
Don't know
More information about this topic can be found in CBOS report in Polish: "Public Opinion on the Dispute over the Constitutional Tribunal", April 2016. Fieldwork for national sample: April 2016, N=1104. The random address sample is representative for adult population of Poland.
'99
'02
'05 '06 '07
Mother's life is in danger Mother's health is in danger Pregnancy is the result of rape or incest Child would be born disabled
'10 '11 '12
'16
Woman is in difficult material situation Woman is in difficult personal situation Woman does not want the child
What is interesting, the opinions about legal availability of abortion among women in childbearing age, i.e. those affected directly, are not much different from the total. Should abortion be legally available if…
Legal availability of abortion
Percentage of affirmative answers among women up to the age 49 (N=302) 81%
Mother's life is in danger
In Poland abortion can be legally performed in three situations: when the woman's life or health is endangered by the continuation of pregnancy, when there is a high probability that the foetus is seriously and irrevocably malformed or is affected by a life-threatening incurable disease, and when the pregnancy is a result of a criminal act, for instance rape. Public opinion on legal availability of abortion is largely consistent with the existing law. The conviction that the woman should have the right to terminate pregnancy
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4
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70%
Mother's health is in danger
78%
Pregnancy is the result of rape or incest
52%
Child would be born disabled Woman is in difficult material situation Woman is in difficult personal situation Woman does not want the child
15% 12% 14%
More information about this topic can be found in CBOS report in Polish: "Opinions about Abortion", April 2016. Fieldwork for national sample: March 2016, N=1034. The random address sample is representative for adult population of Poland.
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