STATISTICAL RELEASE P0302

Mid-year population estimates 2018

Embargoed until: 23 July 2018 11:00

ENQUIRIES: User Information Services

FORTHCOMING ISSUE: 2019

Tel: (012) 310 8600 / 4892 / 8390

www.statssa.gov.za [email protected] T +27 12 310 8911 F +27 12 310 8500 Private Bag X44, Pretoria, 0001, South Africa ISIbalo House, Koch Street, Salvokop, Pretoria, 0002

EXPECTED RELEASE DATE: 31 July 2019

STATISTICS SOUTH AFRICA

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P0302

Contents Summary ......................................................................................................................................... 1 1.

Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 3

2.

Demographic and other assumptions ................................................................................... 3

3.

Demographic and other indicators ....................................................................................... 5

4.

National population estimates .............................................................................................. 8

5.

Provincial population estimates .......................................................................................... 11

5.1

Demographic assumptions................................................................................................. 11

5.2

Migration patterns .............................................................................................................. 14

5.3

Provincial distributions ....................................................................................................... 16

References .................................................................................................................................... 19 Appendices ................................................................................................................................... 21

List of tables Table 1: Mid-year population estimates for South Africa by population group and sex, 2018 ................2 Table 2: Assumptions of expectation of life at birth without HIV/AIDS and total fertility rate, 2002–2018 .............................................................................................................................................................4 Table 3: International net-migration assumptions for the period 1985–2021 .........................................4 Table 4: Births and deaths for the period 2002–2018 ...........................................................................7 HIV prevalence .....................................................................................................................................7 Table 5: Mid-year population estimates by population group and sex, 2018 .........................................9 Table 6: Mid-year population estimates by population group, age and sex, 2018 ...............................10 Table 7: Estimated provincial migration streams 2006–2011 ..............................................................14 Table 8: Estimated provincial migration streams 2011–2016 ..............................................................15 Table 9: Estimated provincial migration streams 2016–2021 ..............................................................15 Table 10: Percentage distribution of the projected provincial share of the total population, 2002–2018 ...........................................................................................................................................................16 Table 11 (a): Provincial mid-year population estimates by age and sex, 2018 ....................................17 Table 11 (b): Provincial mid-year popula