Predictions 2017 Seismic Shifts

BREAKINGVIEWS

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Predictions 2017

Contents Introduction...........................................................................................4 Aftershocks............................................................................................6 Trump governance carries Chinese characteristics............................................ 6 Europe’s best antidote to populism is unpopularism........................................ 8 Long-term investors will be tested by Trump....................................................10 U.S. company cash deluge will lift only some boats.........................................12 Merkel can win new term but won’t finish it......................................................14 Trump stimulus will only delay next U.S. recession..........................................15 Diverging central banks will power dollar in 2017............................................ 17 Russian sanctions will shrivel to soccer boycotts..............................................18 China will show Trump more carrot than stick.................................................20 Russian Revolution won’t be the last................................................................ 22

Fault Lines...........................................................................................25 Globalization backlash misses real danger: Robots........................................ 25 Mega-merger market set for last gasp.............................................................26 Rate hikes will help U.S. pensions, but not enough........................................ 27 Fund manager pay will be next to feel the squeeze........................................29 Exxon’s new boss will confront the end of empire...........................................30 Banking whales have had their day.................................................................. 32 Protectionism is key threat to China’s M&A boom........................................... 34 China’s central bank will lose its longtime leader............................................ 35 Maduro will survive, just, on Venezuelan tightrope......................................... 37

Contents

Under Construction...........................................................................38 Biggest financial merger of 2017: SEC and CFTC............................................ 38 Race to build will add impetus to old-world stocks......................................... 39 3G will take another bite of corporate America................................................41 Disney buying Netflix could be practical magic............................................... 43 GE’s succession path lit by dueling deals.........................................................44 Lenovo could follow Dell’s buyout blueprint....................................................46 Tencent heads for a high score in gaming M&A..............................................48 India is gearing up to recapitalise its big banks...............................................49 First Boston-Bankers Trust may unite in 2017..................................................50 Gulf bank mergers will solve an oily problem.................................................. 53

Good vibrations........................................................... 55 Thruppence: Ten buzzwords to expect in 2017................................................55 Markets keep climate-change fight alive......................................................... 57 Driverless cars will be steered by insurers........................................................59 Tesla teaches car rivals to love each other........................................................61 Japan and Abe can profit from the Donald Trump era....................................62 Psychedelic drugs enlighten $2.5 trln problem...............................................64 Gene therapy is ready to become her