Predictions 2018 Froth and Frustration

BREAKINGVIEWS

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Predictions 2018

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Predictions 2018 Froth and Frustration

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Predictions 2018

Contents Introduction........................................................................... 6 Peaks and pessimists............................................................ 9 Five possible triggers of the next market shock................................................. 9 Best thing Trump and Xi can do in 2018 is nothing..........................................12 Fed calls time on monetary and regulatory activism.......................................14 Bond vigilantes will grab power from central banks........................................15 Verizon will be one of 2018’s few mega-dealmakers........................................ 17 Apple provides hedge against global tech backlash........................................19 Bitcoin speculators face total wipeout...............................................................21 Passive funds will claim a CEO scalp in 2018................................................... 24 Credit markets will enjoy one last hurrah......................................................... 25

Boards and belligerents.......................................................27 Wall Street’s next challenge: graceful retirement........................................... 27 Activists are at the back door of fortress luxury...............................................28 Mega-miners will find good things in small packages....................................30 Big Oil’s discipline reinforces shale’s swing role............................................... 31 Saudi Aramco’s backup IPO plan runs through China.................................... 33 Regulators will drive next wave of EU bank mergers...................................... 35 Bank compliance-cost explosion will abate in 2018........................................ 38 A deluge of scandals in Japan will drive change............................................. 39 India bids adieu to “promoter” capitalism in 2018...........................................41 A Western money manager will turn Chinese in 2018.....................................42 China will pull private capital into state orbit..................................................44 Sexual misconduct will haunt 2018 annual reports........................................46

Contents

Code and consequences...................................................................48 Tech salad will come with a side of SLAW in 2018...........................................48 Amazon to become biggest impact investor ever............................................49 Sun will be setting on Silicon Valley imperialism............................................. 52 India’s e-commerce war to surface on U.S. shores..........................................54 Hong Kong will start atoning for missing Alibaba...........................................55 China will plant a tech leadership flag with 5G............................................... 57 Electric cars will catch up with gas guzzlers....................................................58 Uber for everything will arrive in 2018..............................................................60

Polls and populists............................................................................62 U.S. political doomsday will hurt economic growth........................................62 U.S. will miss out on infrastructure again in 2018........................................... 63 Latam’s turn from populism will be put to the test.........................................65 Canada will be biggest loser in U.S. trade spats.............................................66 Germany will follow money in EU top jobs carve-up.......................................68 Britain heads for Brexit in name only................................................................6