Preliminary Education Fund Outlook

Base Education Amount Per Equalized Pupil. $9,285. $9,459 ... Statewide Education Grand List Growth Rate. -0.5%. 0.3% ... 14 Technical Education. 13.7. 13.3.
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Preliminary Education Fund Outlook (millions of dollars)

a b c d

e f g

Base Homestead Property Tax Rate Average Homestead Property Tax Rate Uniform Non-Residential Property Tax Rate Base Tax Rate on Household Income 1 Average Tax Rate on Household Income Base Education Amount Per Equalized Pupil Property Yield Per Equalized Pupil 2% Income Yield Per Equalized Pupil Total Equalized Pupil Count Statewide Education Grand List Growth Rate Statewide Education Spending Growth Rate

Uses 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

FY2016

FY2017

Final

Preliminary

Projections

$0.98 $1.50 $1.515 1.8% 2.72% $9,285

$0.99 $1.525 $1.535 1.8% 2.74% $9,459

$1.00 $1.535 $1.538 2.0% 2.72% $9,955 $11,157 88,571.7 1.7% 2.52%

89,257 -0.5%

89,163 0.3%

573.6 (151.1) 603.4 127.6 32.4 295.8

588.4 (158.8) (7.5) 616.5 133.8 34.1 303.3

599.0 (163.9) (7.3) 624.1 138.0 35.6 303.6 2.3

1.8 22.8 7.6 1.1

23.2 6.0 1.1

23.5 6.0 1.1

Total Sources

1,515.1

1,540.1

1,562.0

Education Payment Special Education State-Placed Students Transportation Technical Education Small Schools Essential Early Education Adult Education & Literacy Community HS of Vermont (Corrections) Renter Rebate (General Gov't) - EF share only** Reappraisal & Listing (General Gov't) Other Uses (Accounting & Auditing, Other)

1,258.5 173.3 16.9 17.2 13.7 7.7 6.3 5.8 3.8 6.6 3.3 1.3

1,289.6 179.8 16.4 17.7 13.3 7.6 6.4 5.8 3.6 6.8 3.4 1.1

1,321.3 177.8 16.5 18.3 13.5 7.6 6.4 5.8 3.6 7.0 3.4 1.1

Total Uses

1,514.3

1,551.5

1,582.2

Sources 1 Homestead Education Tax 1a Income Sensitivity Adjustment 1b Homeowner Rebate - EF share only* 2 Non-Homestead Education Tax 3 Sales & Use Tax 4 Purchase & Use Tax 5 General Fund Transfer 5a Transfer from Rainy Day Reserve 5b Property Tax Relief Fund Transfer 6 Lottery Transfer 7 Medicaid Transfer 8 Other Sources (Wind & Solar Property Tax, Other) 9

FY2015

Included in line 1a.

Allocation of Revenue Surplus/(Deficit) 23

Revenue Surplus/(Deficit)

24 25 26

Prior-Year Reversions Transfer to/(from) Stabilization Reserve Transfer to/(from) Unreserved/Unallocated

Stabilization Reserve 27 Prior-Year Stabilization Reserve 28 Current-Year Stabilization Reserve 29 Percent of Prior-Year Net Appropriations 30 Maximum Reserve Target @ 5.0% 31 Minimum Reserve Target @ 3.5%

0.9

(11.4)

(20.2)

(5.9) 1.7 5.1

(16.8) 0.5 4.9

0.0 0.8 (21.0)

30.3 32.0 5.00% 32.0 22.4

32.0 32.5 5.00% 32.5 22.8

32.5 33.3 5.00% 33.3 23.3

Available Funds 32 Prior-Year Unreserved/Unallocated 10.0 16.1 21.0 33 Current-Year Unreserved/Unallocated 16.1 21.0 (0.0) 1. The average income rate is presented for year over year comparisons only. Because of the property tax adjustment "lag," the true average may vary slightly. * GF share of homeowner rebate: ** GF share of renter rebate: DRAFT CONSENSUS ESTIMATE

14.6 2.8

16.9 2.9

16.2 0.0 Printed: 12/01/20151:20 PM