Jun 21, 2016 - 0.01. Hospitals room charges. 72.19. 0.20. Communication. 129.49. 0.36. Telephone charges - Home fixed ph
PRESS RELEASE THE NATIONAL CONSUMER PRICE INDEX – MAY 2016
Department of Census and Statistics Ministry of National Policies and Economic Affairs TEL: 011-2147416
1.
FAX: 011-2877945
JUNE 21, 2016
Introduction
The Department of Census and Statistics (DCS) has released the National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) and Inflation for the month of May 2016. The DCS has been releasing Colombo Consumer Price Index (CCPI) with the base period of 2006/07 from June 2011, covering the urban areas of Colombo district. The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) released by the DCS is National Consumer Price Index (NCPI). NCPI has been releasing monthly from October 2015 with a time lag of 21 days. The NCPI has weights based on consumer spending in 2012/13 Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES), and reflects new methods consistent with international best practices. To reflect international recommendations and best practices, the index weights refer to each item’s share in the total consumption expenditures of all Sri Lankan households. The provincial weights refer to the consumption expenditures within the province in proportion to the expenditures in the whole country. The index weights are based on expenditure data derived from the Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) conducted in 2012/13. The 2012/13 HIES included all types of consumption expenditures by households, and was broadly representative of all households in the country. The year 2013 is considered as the base year for NCPI. The national consumer basket includes 407 items which represent the consumption expenditure of all households in Sri Lanka. For the compilation of NCPI, three price quotations are collected for each of the items in each district town. Prices for some items are collected weekly (e.g. fresh fish, rice, vegetables, fruits, coconut etc.), while prices for other items are collected twice a week (e.g. dried fish, spices, cereals, etc.), monthly (e.g. readymade garments, washing soap /washing powder etc.) and quarterly (e.g. furniture, laundry charges etc.). The frequency of price collection is determined by on an average how frequently price changes are taken place.
2.
Month on Month (M on M) Change of NCPI:
The NCPI for all items for the month of May 2016 was 113.7. An increase of 2.1 index points or a percentage of 1.9 was noted in May 2016 compared to April 2016 for which the index was 111.6. This increase represents an expenditure value of Rs. 673.31 in the “Market Basket”. 1
Table 01: Monthly Changes by Main Groups of Market Basket Major Groups*
Index Number
Monthly Changes of the Expenditure Value (Rs.)
Monthly changes of the index (%)
May
April
May
May
April
May
May
April
May
2015
2016
2016
2015
2016
2016
2015
2016
2016
All Items
108.0
111.6
113.7
340.65
500.78
673.31
0.99
1.42
1.88
Food and Non Alcoholic Beverages
108.4
111.3
113.6
322.38
341.94
326.67
0.94
0.97
0.91
Non Food Alcoholic Beverages, Tobacco & Narcotics
107.8
111.8
113.7
18.27
158.84
346.64
0.05
0.45
0.97
124.9
157.8
154.0
5.19
82.59
-27.89
0.02
0.23
-0.08
Clothing and Footwear Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and other fuels Furnishings, Household equipment and Routing household maintenance Health Communication
111.2
113.5
113.9
7.17
6.76
4.26
0.02
0.02
0.01
114.7
114.6
114.7
0.25
1.38
10.05
0.00
0.00
0.03
108.4 114.1 103.8
112.3 117.1 103.8
112.6 133.3 121.2
-3.17 0.00 0.00
5.56 0.00 0.00
3.03 210.06 129.49
-0.01 0.00 0.00
0.02 0.00 0.00
0.01 0.59 0.36
Recreation and Culture
104.5
108.8
109.5
0.00
0.00
3.77
0.00
0.00
0.01
Miscellaneous goods and services
102.7
112.2
113.1
3.33
0.49
12.95
0.01
0.00
0.04
Other 97.7 101.9 101.9 5.50 62.05 0.93 0.02 0.18 *Note: There are 12 main groups of the market basket. Monthly significant changes were noted in eight main groups in May 2016, details on which are given in Table 02.
2.1.
Contribution to M on M Changes:
Contributions to the increase in NCPI from April 2016 to May 2016 are given in Table 02. The index increased by 1.88% and this was due to the value change increase of food items by 0.91% and value change increase of non-food items by 0.97%.
2.1.1. Contribution of Food and non alcoholic beverages items: + 0.91% As shown in Table 02, the increases in value change in index were reported for Vegetables (0.48%), Rice (0.16%), Limes (0.13%), Potatoes (0.06%), Dhal-Masoor (0.06%), Red Onions (0.06%), Green chilies (0.04%), Chicken (0.04%), Sugar (0.03%), Garlic (0.03%) and Dried fish (0.03%). However decreases in value change in index were reported for Eggs (0.10%), Papaw (0.06%), Banana (0.05%), Mangoes (0.04%) and Coconut (0.03%). 2.1.2. Contribution of Non food items: + 0.97% The increases in value change in index were reported for non food commodity group of 'Health' (0.59%), 'Communication'(0.36%), 'Miscellaneous Goods and Services'(0.04%), 'Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’(0.03%), ‘Clothing and Footwear’(0.01%), 'Furnishing, Household Equipment & Routine Household Maintenance'(0.01%) and ‘Recreation & Culture'(0.01%). The group of ‘Restaurant and Hotels' recorded very slight value change increase compared to the previous month. However decrease in value change in index were reported for ‘Alcoholic Beverages Tobacco & Narcotics’ (0.08%). The groups of ‘Transport’ and ‘Education’ remained unchanged during the month.
2
0.00
Table 02: Contribution to the increase in NCPI from April 2016 to May 2016 (Base 2013=100)
Value change Sub Group/Commodity Rs. Cts
Increase %
% Change Decrease %
Net effect %
0.29
0.91
Food
326.67
1.20
Rice Sugar Chicken Dried fish Eggs Coconut
56.13 10.70 13.06 9.08 -34.88 -12.54
0.16 0.03 0.04 0.03
Vegetables Potatoes Dhal - Masoor Red Onions Banana Papaw Mangoes Garlic Green chilies Limes Other food items
170.85 21.38 20.35 20.98 -19.48 -20.37 -15.15 9.67 13.76 47.19 35.94
0.48 0.06 0.06 0.06
Non Food
346.64
1.04
Alcoholic Beverages, Tobacco & Narcotics Beetle leaves Clothing and Footwear Clothing Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels Material for the Maintenance Water bills Furnishing, household equipment and routine household maintenance Health Fees to private medical practices Consultation fees to specialists Payments. to medical laboratories Scan (US) Hospitals room charges Communication Telephone charges - Home fixed phone Telephone charges - mobile Recreation and Culture Cable/ Satellite TV charges Miscellaneous Goods & Services Car Insurance Restaurant & Hotels
-27.89 -28.47 4.26 4.26 10.05 5.35 4.00
0.01 0.01 0.03 0.01 0.01
3.03 210.06 85.67 10.95 39.39 1.86 72.19 129.49 41.22 88.26 3.77 3.77 12.95 12.36 0.93
0.01 0.59 0.24 0.03 0.11 0.01 0.20 0.36 0.11 0.25 0.01 0.01 0.04 0.03 0.00
0.10 0.03
0.05 0.06 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.13 0.10 0.08
0.97
0.08 0.08
All Items 673.31 *Note: Sum of percentages of items may not tally with overall percentage due to rounding off. Sum of items may not tally with overall total due to rounding off.
1.88
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3.
Inflation
The NCPI is a macroeconomic indicator compiled to measure inflation which is defined as a sustained increase in the general level of prices for goods and services and it is measured as an annual percentage increase by NCPI. Inflation can be measured in two ways. One measure is Year on Year base or Point to Point inflation (The percentage change in the CPI during the last 12 months). The other measure is Moving Average Inflation (The percentage difference between the average Price Indices of last 12 months & the average Price Indices of previous 12 months). Table 03: Movements of the NCPI (Base: 2013=100)
2015
2016
3.1.
Food
Non Food
12 Month Moving Avg.
Y on Y
Inflation %
% Change Month to Month
12 Month Moving Avg.
Y on Y
Inflation %
% Change Month to Month
12 Month Moving Avg.
Y on Y
Inflation %
% Change Month to Month
Index Number
Year
Month
All Item
May
108.0
0.9
3.0
2.2
4.5
0.1
1.8
June
109.1
1.0
2.7
2.0
3.8
0.1
1.8
July
108.9
-0.2
1.8
-0.8
1.3
0.4
2.1
August
108.4
-0.5
1.9
-1.6
1.6
0.6
2.1
September
108.4
0.0
1.9
-0.5
1.1
0.2
2.4
October
109.2
0.7
3.0
1.4
2.3
0.2
3.5
November
112.0
2.6
4.8
4.9
4.6
0.9
4.9
December
113.2
1.1
4.2
3.8
2.0
2.6
5.2
0.3
5.6
2.6
January
112.0
-1.1
-0.7
2.9
-2.3
-4.2
3.3
-0.1
2.2
2.6
February March
110.8 110.0
-1.1 -0.7
1.7 2.2
2.6 2.4
-2.6 -1.7
-0.6 0.5
2.3 1.7
0.2 0.2
3.7 3.5
2.8 2.9
April
111.6
1.5
4.3
2.6
2.2
4.9
1.8
0.8
3.8
3.1
May
113.7
1.9
5.3
2.7
2.1
4.8
1.8
1.7
5.5
3.4
Year on Year (Y on Y) Inflation
The overall rate of inflation as measured by NCPI on Y on Y basis is 5.3% in May 2016 and inflation calculated for April 2016 was 4.3% (Table 03). Y on Y inflation of Food Group reported for the month of May 2016 was 4.8% while that for non food group was 5.5%. 3.1.1.
Contribution to Y on Y inflation:
On year on year basis, contribution of food commodities to inflation was 2.13 percent in May 2016 compared to May 2015 (Table 04). Contribution of Non food items was 3.07 percent. This was mainly due to value change increases in ‘Health’ (0.72%), 'Alcoholic Beverages, Tobacco & Narcotics' (0.61%), ‘Transport’ (0.53%), ‘Miscellaneous of goods and services' (0.44%), 'Communication'(0.37%) and 'Furnishing, Household Equipment & Routine Household Maintenance' (0.13%).
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Table 04: Contribution to the increase in NCPI (Base 2013=100) on year on year basis (May 2016 compared to May 2015) Value change Sub Group/Commodity
% Change Rs. Cts 740.45
Food
Increase %
Non Food Alcoholic Beverages, Tobacco & Narcotics Arrack Cigarettes Beetle leaves Bulathwita/Sarawita Clothing & Footwear Clothing Footwear Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels Material for the Maintenance Water bills L.P. Gas Kerosene Oil Furnishings, Household equipment and Routing household maintenance Glassware, Tableware and Household Appliance Health Fees to private medical practices Consultation fees to specialists Payments. to medical laboratories Scan (US) Hospitals room charges Transport Purchase of Vehicles Cost of servicing of vehicles Communication Telephone charges - Home fixed phone Telephone charges - mobile Recreation and Culture Cable/ Satellite TV charges Education Tuition fees Restaurant & Hotels Miscellaneous Goods & Services Car Insurance
1065.90 212.09 86.61 17.60 58.23 28.17 30.15 20.33 9.82 -0.07 34.39 4.00 -27.23 -10.35
3.07 0.61 0.25 0.05 0.17 0.08 0.09 0.06 0.03
45.15
0.13
22.19 250.20 119.59 14.46 39.39 1.86 72.19 185.66 72.19 112.85 129.49 41.22 88.26 25.39 3.77 31.20 18.40 5.52 151.13 124.02
0.06 0.72 0.34 0.04 0.11 0.01 0.21 0.53 0.21 0.32 0.37 0.12 0.25 0.07 0.01 0.09 0.05 0.02 0.44 0.36
All Items
1806.35
Decrease %
Net effect % 2.13
0.00
3.07
0.00 0.10 0.01 0.08 0.03
5.30
*Note: Sum of percentages of items may not tally with overall percentage due to rounding off. Sum of items may not tally with overall total due to rounding off.
3.2.
Moving Average Inflation
The moving average inflation for the month of May 2016 is 2.7%. The corresponding rate for the month of April 2016 was 2.6%.
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National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) and Year on Year Inflation
NCPI
Inflation
114.0
10.0% 9.0%
112.0
8.0% 7.0%
110.0
6.0%
5.0% 108.0 4.0% 3.0%
106.0
2.0% 1.0%
104.0
0.0% 102.0
-1.0% Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2014/15 NCPI 2014/15
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
2015/16 NCPI 2015/16
Inflation 2015/16
Director General, Department of Census and Statistics.
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