Probability in the Law: A Case Study

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May 29, 2016 - Application of Bayes' Theorem. The ratio of the posteriori probabilities of the competing propositions, i
Probability in the Law: A Case Study Brad Weslake NYU Shanghai http://bweslake.org/

International Conference on Facts and Evidence ECNU, 29 May 2016

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Introduction

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Slides

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Plan Aim ▶ ▶

Demonstrate the utility of applied epistemology (“Get down into the weeds”). Revisit a famous case from the literature on probability in the law, and suggest that there remain some general lessons yet to be learned.

Structure ▶ ▶ ▶ ▶

The Sally Clark case. Analyses of the case by statisticians and philosophers. Criticism of Sesardic (2007). Conclusions for the role of probability reasoning in the law.

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Background on the Sally Clark Case

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Key Events ▶

Sally Clark (1964–2007), British solicitor.



First child born 26 September 1996, died 13 December 1996 ▶



Diagnosed as due to SIDS.

Second child born 29 November 1997, died 26 January 1998. ▶

Diagnosed as due to unnatural causes.



On 9 November 1999, convicted by jury for life for murder.



Second appeal successful on 28-29 January 2003. …it seems likely that if this matter had been fully argued before us we would, in all probability, have considered that the statistical evidence provided a quite distinct basis upon which the appeal had to be allowed. ..

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Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (SIDS) Not Obviously a Natural Kind ▶



Not defined in purely medical terms, but rather in terms that make essential reference to the capacity of pathologists and coroners to explain death in other ways. The San Diego Classification (Krous et al. 2004): The sudden unexpected death of an infant