proprietary research stoxx 600 earnings outlook - Reuters

PROPRIETARY RESEARCH EARNINGS AGGREGATES REPORTING ANALYST: Greg Harrison

September 3, 2015

STOXX 600 EARNINGS OUTLOOK EUROPEAN AGGREGATE ESTIMATES AND REVISIONS  Second quarter earnings are expected to grow 8.0% from Q2 2014.  Second quarter revenue is expected to decline 0.1% from Q2 2014.  261 companies in the STOXX 600 have reported earnings to date for Q2 2015. Of these, 54% reported earnings above analyst estimates. In a typical quarter 48% beat analyst EPS estimates.  301 companies in the STOXX 600 have reported revenue to date for Q2 2015. Of these, 60% reported revenue above analyst estimates. In a typical quarter 53% beat analyst revenue estimates.  The forward P/E ratio for the STOXX 600 is 14.1.  There are 0 STOXX 600 companies with quarterly estimates expected to report Q2 2015 earnings during the week of September 7.

SECTION A: EARNINGS OUTLOOK Q2 2015: EARNINGS REVISIONS Exhibit 1A. STOXX 600: Q2 2015 Earnings Growth Estimate Trend 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0%

9/24

9/17

9/10

9/3

8/27

8/20

8/13

8/6

7/30

7/23

7/16

7/9

7/2

6/25

6/18

6/11

6/4

0.0%

Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S

STOXX 600 Earnings Outlook provides analysis and commentary on aggregate earnings estimate revisions, growth rates and valuations for companies in the STOXX Europe 600 index. View all Thomson Reuters Proprietary Research subscription channels. All data sourced from Thomson Reuters Eikon, a complete solution for research and analytics. It places the most comprehensive market information, news, analytics and trading tools available into a desktop as simple to use as the Internet. Thomson Reuters Eikon clients can run fundamental and technical screens against a global dataset representing more than 100 countries and over 200,000 securities. Learn more. Request a free trial of Thomson Reuters Eikon today. © 2014 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license.

THOMSON REUTERS PROPRIETARY RESEARCH STOXX 600 EARNINGS OUTLOOK

SEPTEMBER 3, 2015

Q2 2015: EARNINGS SCORECARDS Exhibit 2A. STOXX 600: Q2 2015 Earnings vs. Expectations Sector Basic Materials

Above %

Match %

55%

Below %

3%

Surprise

Reported

Factor %

Total #

42%

Cos. w/ Ests. Total #

1%

31

32

Consumer Cyclicals

43%

13%

43%

-1%

30

36

Consumer Non-Cyclicals

46%

15%

38%

-2%

13

16

Energy

50%

0%

50%

-6%

18

21

Financials

60%

6%

35%

4%

52

69

Healthcare

56%

4%

40%

4%

25

26

Industrials

56%

15%

29%

25%

52

55

Technology

60%

13%

27%

8%

15

15

Telecommunications Services

44%

19%

38%

8%

16

19

Utilities STOXX 600

78%

0%

22%

30%

9

12

54.4%

9.2%

36.4%

5%

261

301


Through September 3, 261 companies in the STOXX 600 Index reported earnings for Q2 2015. Of these, 56.1% reported earnings above analyst estimates. In a typical quarter (since 2011), 48% of companies beat estimates, 8% match and 44% miss estimates. Over the past four quarters, 50% of companies beat the estimates, 8% matched and 42% missed estimates. In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings that are 5% above estimates, which is above the 4% longterm (since 2011) average surprise factor, and above the 4% surprise factor recorded over the past four quarters. Exhibit 3A. STOXX 600: Full Year 2014 Earnings vs. Expectations Reported Sector

Above %

Match %

Below %

Cos. w/ Ests.

Total #

Total #

Basic Materials

54%

2%

44%

50

Consumer Cyclicals

49%

11%

40%

70

52 72


58%

10%

32%

31

32

Energy

59%

3%

38%

29

29

Financials

35%

7%

58%

118

121

Healthcare

48%

6%

45%

33

35

Industrials

48%

9%

43%

107

111

Technology

82%

5%

14%

22

24


43%

5%

52%

21

21

Utilities STOXX 600

59%

0%

41%

17

17

48.4%

7.0%

44.6%

498

514


© 2014 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license.

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SEPTEMBER 3, 2015

Q2 2015: REVENUE SCORECARDS Exhibit 4A. STOXX 600: Q2 2015 Revenue vs. Expectations Sector Basic Materials

Above %

Match %

58%

Below %

0%

Surprise

Reported

Cos. w/ Ests.

Factor %

Total #

Total #

42%

0%

33

33

Consumer Cyclicals

61%

3%

36%

3%

36

38


44%

0%

56%

-2%

18

19

Energy

62%

0%

38%

11%

21

21

Financials

61%

0%

39%

3%

62

64

Healthcare

65%

0%

35%

2%

26

26

Industrials

66%

0%

34%

2%

59

59

Technology

53%

0%

47%

1%

15

15


74%

0%

26%

2%

19

21

Utilities

33%

0%

67%

1%

12

12

60.5%

0.3%

39.2%

3%

301

308

STOXX 600


Through September 3, 301 companies in the STOXX 600 Index reported revenues for Q2 2015. Of these, 60.5% beat analyst expectations. In aggregate, companies are reporting revenues that are 3% above estimates. Exhibit 5A. STOXX 600: Full Year 2014 Revenue vs. Expectations Reported Sector

Above %

Match %

Below %

Cos. w/ Ests.

Total #

Total #

Basic Materials

54%

0%

46%

50

52

Consumer Cyclicals

58%

1%

41%

69

72


58%

0%

42%

31

32

Energy

48%

0%

52%

29

29

Financials

51%

0%

49%

116

121

Healthcare

52%

0%

48%

33

35

Industrials

53%

0%

47%

107

111

Technology

82%

0%

18%

22

24


67%

0%

33%

21

21

Utilities

41%

0%

59%

17

17

54.7%

0.2%

45.1%

495

514

STOXX 600



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SEPTEMBER 3, 2015

Q2 2015: EARNINGS GROWTH RATES Exhibit 6A. STOXX 600: Q2 2015 Earnings Growth (Based on 301 Companies with Estimates) Sector

Earnings $B Q215

Basic Materials Consumer Cyclicals Consumer Non-Cyclicals Energy

Earnings $B Q214

Growth $B Q215

Growth % Q215

4.7

4.4

0.4

10.8

10.5

0.4

8.4% 3.6%

5.4

5.7

-0.3

-5.7%

11.3

18.1

-6.8

-37.7%

Financials

36.8

25.0

11.8

47.3%

Healthcare

13.6

13.1

0.5

3.9%

Industrials

9.3

7.7

1.6

20.8%

Technology

3.5

3.2

0.3

8.1%

Telecommunication Services

3.8

3.8

0.0

0.1%

Utilities

2.5

2.7

-0.2

-8.5%

101.6

94.1

7.5

8.0%

STOXX 600


The estimated earnings growth rate for the STOXX 600 for Q2 2015 is 8.0%. The STOXX 600 expects to see share-weighted earnings of $101.6B in Q2 2015, compared to share-weighted earnings of $94.1B (based on the year-ago earnings of the current constituents) in Q2 2014. Seven of the ten sectors in the index expect to see an improvement in earnings relative to Q2 2014. The Financials sector has the highest earnings growth rate for the quarter, while the Energy sector has the weakest anticipated growth compared to Q2 2014. The Financials sector has the highest earnings growth rate (47.3%) of any sector. It is expected to earn $36.8B in Q2 2015, compared to earnings of $25.0B in Q2 2014. Three of the five industry groups in the sector are anticipated to see higher earnings than a year ago. The Investment Banking & Investment Services industry group has the highest growth rate within the sector at 370%. The Energy sector has the lowest growth rate (-37.7%) of any sector. It is expected to earn $11.3B in Q2 2015, relative to earnings of $18.1B in Q2 2014. The Oil & Gas Related Equipment and Services industry group has the lowest growth rate within the sector at -114%. Exhibit 7A. STOXX 600: Full Year 2015 Earnings Growth (Based on 510 Companies with Estimates) Sector

Earnings $B

Earnings $B

Growth $B

2015

2014

2015

Basic Materials

32.6

Consumer Cyclicals Consumer Non-Cyclicals Energy

Growth % 2015

36.2

-3.5

-9.7%

74.2

61.9

12.3

19.8%

54.1

55.7

-1.6

-2.9%

50.1

76.0

-25.9

-34.1%

Financials

190.5

139.1

51.4

36.9%

Healthcare

67.8

66.7

1.0

1.5%

Industrials

68.5

59.4

9.1

15.3%

Technology

17.6

15.6

2.0

12.6%


20.6

15.0

5.6

37.1%

Utilities

26.5

26.9

-0.4

-1.4%

602.5

552.6

49.9

9.0%

STOXX 600



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SEPTEMBER 3, 2015

Q2 2015: REVENUE GROWTH RATES Exhibit 8A. STOXX 600: Q2 2015 Revenue Growth (Based on 308 Companies with Estimates) Sector

Revenue $B

Revenue $B

Growth $B

Q215

Q214

Q215

Basic Materials

Growth % Q215

95.9

95.3

0.6

0.7%

Consumer Cyclicals

233.3

201.3

32.0

15.9%


101.8

99.8

2.0

2.0%

Energy

212.3

280.5

-68.2

-24.3%

Financials

203.4

195.6

7.8

4.0%

Healthcare

87.2

80.8

6.4

7.9%

Industrials

214.4

205.5

8.8

4.3%

Technology

30.1

26.8

3.3

12.3% 6.9%


77.3

72.3

5.0

Utilities

50.4

46.9

3.5

7.5%

1,306.0

1,304.8

1.2

0.1%

STOXX 600


The estimated revenue growth rate for the STOXX 600 for Q2 2015 is -0.1%. The STOXX 600 is expected to earn revenues of $1,306.0B in Q2 2015 compared to $1,304.8B in Q2 2014. Nine of the ten sectors anticipate revenue growth for the quarter. The Consumer Cyclicals sector is expected to have the highest revenue growth rate for the quarter, while the Energy sector is expected to have the lowest revenue growth rate. The Consumer Cyclicals sector expects the highest revenue growth rate (15.9%) for the quarter. It is expected to generate sales of $233.3B in Q2 2015, compared to sales of $201.3B in Q2 2014. The Energy sector has the lowest revenue growth rate at (-24.3%). The sector is expected to post sales of $212.3B in Q2 2015, relative to sales of $280.5B in Q2 2014. Exhibit 9A. STOXX 600: Full Year 2015 Revenue Growth (Based on 507 Companies with Estimates) Sector

Revenue $B

Revenue $B

Growth $B

2015

2014

2015

Basic Materials Consumer Cyclicals Consumer Non-Cyclicals

Growth % 2015

558.1

551.5

6.6

1.2%

1,320.4

1,208.6

111.8

9.3%

749.8

722.3

27.5

3.8%

Energy

1,356.9

1,735.2

-378.3

-21.8%

Financials

1,529.2

1,434.8

94.4

6.6%

Healthcare

418.4

396.7

21.7

5.5%

Industrials

1,284.7

1,244.8

39.9

3.2%

Technology

157.6

139.8

17.7

12.7%


336.3

305.1

31.2

10.2%

Utilities STOXX 600

637.0

632.0

5.0

0.8%

8,348.3

8,370.7

-22.4

-0.3%



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SEPTEMBER 3, 2015

Q2 2015: EARNINGS GROWTH RATES BY COUNTRY Exhibit 10A. STOXX 600: Q2 2015 Earnings Growth Rate Estimates by Country Ireland Denmark Spain Switzerland Germany Bermuda Sweden Finland STOXX 600 Netherlands France Norway Jersey Czech Republic Belgium Italy Great Britain Greece Luxembourg ‐70%

‐60%

‐50%

‐40%

‐30%

‐20%

‐10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%


Analysts expect positive earnings growth from 13 of the 20 countries represented in the STOXX 600 index. Ireland (27%) and Denmark (25%) have the highest estimated earnings growth rates, while Luxembourg (-57%) and Greece (-46%) have the lowest estimated growth.


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SEPTEMBER 3, 2015

FORWARD FOUR-QUARTER P/E RATIO Exhibit 11A. STOXX 600: Forward P/E Ratio P/E Ratio

Number of Companies

CY 2015

15.1

510

Forward

14.1

510

CY 2016

13.6

510


The forward P/E ratio for the STOXX 600 is 14.1. Q2 2015 – Q1 2016: EARNINGS GROWTH

The estimated earnings growth rates for the STOXX 600 for Q2 2015 through Q1 2016 are 8%, -1%, 59% and 4%, respectively. For sector-level growth rates for Q2 2015 through Q1 2016, see Exhibits 2C-5C in this report. EARNINGS CALENDAR

The next several weeks will see companies report earnings for Q2 2015. There are 0 STOXX 600 companies with quarterly estimates scheduled to report Q2 2015 earnings during the week of September 7. Exhibit 12A. Number of Companies Reporting Q2 2015 Earnings Q2 2015 STOXX 600

Reported

Report

Report

Report

To Date

This Week

Next Week

Remaining

261

0

1

39

Source: Thomson Reuters StreetEvents.


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SEPTEMBER 3, 2015

SECTION B: EARNINGS CALENDAR MONDAY: SEPTEMBER 7 Exhibit 1B. Monday Earnings Calendar Date

9/7/2015

Ticker

SPSN.S

Company

SWISS PRIME SITE

Qtr/Semi

Est

Yr Ago

% Dif

QTR

NA



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SEPTEMBER 3, 2015

TUESDAY: SEPTEMBER 8 Exhibit 2B. Tuesday Earnings Calendar Date

Ticker

Company

Qtr/Semi

Est

Yr Ago

% Dif



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SEPTEMBER 3, 2015

WEDNESDAY: SEPTEMBER 9 Exhibit 3B. Wednesday Earnings Calendar Date

9/9/2015 9/9/2015

Ticker

HMSO.L PSN.L

Company

HAMMERSON PERSIMMON

Qtr/Semi

Est

Yr Ago

% Dif

QTR QTR

NA NA



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SEPTEMBER 3, 2015

THURSDAY: SEPTEMBER 10 Exhibit 4B. Thursday Earnings Calendar Date

9/10/2015

Ticker

KGF.L

Company

KINGFISHER

Qtr/Semi

Est

Yr Ago

% Dif

SEMI

NA



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SEPTEMBER 3, 2015

FRIDAY: SEPTEMBER 11 Exhibit 5B. Friday Earnings Calendar Date

9/11/2015 9/11/2015 9/11/2015

Ticker

ASHM.L BDEV.L MRW.L

Company

ASHMORE GROUP BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS MORRISON(WM)SPMKTS.

Qtr/Semi

Est

Yr Ago

% Dif

SEMI SEMI SEMI

NA NA NA



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SEPTEMBER 3, 2015

SECTION C: EARNINGS DATA TABLES Exhibit 1C. STOXX 600: Q2 2015 Earnings Scorecard Sector Basic Materials Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services Energy Financials Healthcare Industrials Technology Telecommunications Services Utilities STOXX 600

Above 55% 43% 46% 50% 60% 56% 56% 60% 44% 78% 54.4%

Match 3% 13% 15% 0% 6% 4% 15% 13% 19% 0% 9.2%

Below 42% 43% 38% 50% 35% 40% 29% 27% 38% 22% 36.4%

Surprise 1% -1% -2% -6% 4% 4% 25% 8% 8% 30% 5%

Reported 31 30 13 18 52 25 52 15 16 9 261

Index 32 36 16 21 69 26 55 15 19 12 301


Exhibit 2C. STOXX 600: Q2 2015 Earnings Growth Sector Basic Materials Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services Energy Financials Healthcare Industrials Technology Telecommunications Services Utilities STOXX 600 Number of Companies Included in Estimate

Today 8.4% 3.6% -5.7% -37.7% 47.3% 3.9% 20.8% 8.1% 0.1% -8.5% 8.0% 301

1 Jul 14.9% 3.8% 4.0% -36.1% 36.8% -1.1% 22.0% 2.3% -10.6% -29.8% 4.9% 259

1 Apr 19.0% 4.7% 7.8% -62.9% 29.2% -0.3% 28.5% 11.2% 5.4% -28.7% -1.1% 237

1 Jan 20.9% 11.0% 20.0% -30.2% 85.5% -4.8% 17.4% 8.5% 14.6% -27.1% 9.3% 152

1 Oct 21.6% 13.0% 20.9% 6.9% 20.3% -8.2% 19.0% 7.9% 29.7% -24.4% 10.5% 130

1 Jul 3.4% 11.5% 2.5% -35.3% 7.7% 2.6% 14.3% 16.3% -0.2% -5.6% -0.3% 259

1 Apr 5.8% 9.4% 4.0% -56.7% 13.3% 3.0% 13.1% 14.8% 4.4% 0.9% -3.3% 238

1 Jan -23.9% 82.9% 36.7% -25.7% 46.0% 5.0% 15.5% 12.0% 13.1% 17.0% 13.4% 156

1 Oct 24.1% 136.6% 11.3% 3.8% 14.4% 14.9% 19.4% 16.3% 14.8% 10.3% 20.6% 113



Today -2.6% 11.6% 2.0% -35.5% 3.8% 0.1% 11.5% 10.3% 16.1% 21.4% -1.4% 264



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SEPTEMBER 3, 2015


Today -12.0% 25.6% 0.4% -1.4% 625.3% 13.0% 52.4% 8.4% 280.0% 58.2% 59.1% 263

1 Jul 16.9% 29.2% 2.0% 0.8% 297.7% 16.0% 38.3% 12.8% 163.3% 61.7% 51.3% 260

1 Apr 23.1% 29.0% 2.5% -10.8% 57.5% 20.5% 54.8% 12.5% -6.1% 24.8% 26.2% 235

1 Jul -7.2% 15.4% 37.2% 2.7% 2.0% 1.4% -13.1% 34.3% 1.1% 18.7% 2.6% 119

1 Apr 0.5% 12.6% 11.0% 49.6% 18.6% 16.9% 14.2% 28.6% 13.7% -2.5% 21.9% 96

1 Jan -2.4% 85.9% 18.3% -3.0% 104.7% 14.2% 17.5% 18.0% 7.6% 14.8% 21.4% 134



Today -5.1% 7.8% 30.8% -6.8% 9.6% 3.0% -14.6% 30.1% 3.6% 12.9% 3.6% 142



Today 0.7% 15.6% 90.9% 26.6% 16.5% 8.8% 2.8% 13.7% 9.9% 1.0% 15.7% 126

1 Jul -6.4% 10.7% 78.3% 28.0% 41.4% 10.9% 2.0% 24.5% 4.1% 11.1% 21.4% 101



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SEPTEMBER 3, 2015

Exhibit 7C. STOXX 600: CY 2015 Earnings Growth Sector Basic Materials Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services Energy Financials Healthcare Industrials Technology Telecommunications Services Utilities STOXX 600 Number of Companies Included in Estimate

Today -9.7% 19.8% -2.9% -34.1% 36.9% 1.5% 15.3% 12.6% 37.1% -1.4% 9.0% 510

1 Jul -4.8% 20.2% -2.0% -32.1% 32.1% 2.6% 17.4% 13.7% 37.1% -1.7% 9.0% 511

1 Apr 2.6% 18.5% -2.5% -39.7% 20.6% 2.8% 17.3% 15.2% 35.2% -0.9% 5.9% 508

1 Jul 19.9% 13.0% 8.5% 26.0% 10.6% 9.3% 11.2% 17.3% 14.6% 1.4% 12.4% 511

1 Apr 17.6% 13.5% 8.6% 40.0% 11.7% 9.6% 11.9% 14.8% 14.8% 1.0% 13.6% 503

1 Jan 12.0% 15.6% 8.4% -7.6% 20.7% 7.6% 14.9% 20.3% 10.9% 1.9% 11.6% 505

1 Oct 17.5% 16.5% 9.4% 10.7% 20.7% 9.3% 17.2% 20.2% 8.7% 4.4% 14.9% 505


Exhibit 8C. STOXX 600: CY 2016 Earnings Growth Sector Basic Materials Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services Energy Financials Healthcare Industrials Technology Telecommunications Services Utilities STOXX 600 Number of Companies Included in Estimate

Today 18.1% 12.9% 7.8% 20.0% 8.0% 8.7% 11.0% 16.7% 12.3% -0.3% 10.6% 510



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SEPTEMBER 3, 2015

Exhibit 9C. STOXX 600: Actual Earnings Growth Rates Sector Basic Materials Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services Energy Financials Healthcare Industrials Technology Telecommunications Services Utilities STOXX 600

1Q15 29.6% 28.7% 2.2% -32.1% 37.0% 4.5% 40.9% 21.6% 30.9% -12.1% 11.1%

4Q14 26.5% 13.0% -12.4% -22.7% 156.8% -8.6% -21.8% 17.8% -55.0% -18.5% 7.7%

3Q14 19.4% 18.9% 8.5% -3.2% 23.5% 6.8% 6.6% 35.5% -2.6% -3.4% 11.7%

2Q14 13.3% 24.8% 25.8% 23.7% 2.3% 2.1% 12.4% 47.9% -11.9% 7.3% 11.1%

1Q14 6.2% 17.8% 19.2% -2.1% -0.2% -1.0% 31.0% 47.2% -32.0% -19.0% 1.1%

3Q14 52% 9% 39%

2Q14 48% 8% 44%

1Q14 45% 7% 48%

3Q14 3.9%

2Q14 4.0%

1Q14 7.4%


Exhibit 10C. STOXX 600: Actual vs. Estimate (Above/Match/Below) Above Match Below

1Q15 51% 10% 39%

4Q14 50% 8% 43%


Exhibit 11C. STOXX 600: Actual vs. Estimate (Aggregate Difference) Surprise Factor

1Q15 10.3%

4Q14 -5.7%



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SEPTEMBER 3, 2015

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