Purple Poll - Purple Strategies

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Jun 12, 2012 - and Colorado, while Romney leads in Florida and has moved up in Ohio .... The PurplePoll is fielded and a
June 2012 Edition

PURPLEPOLL PURPLE INSIGHTS

WHY THE PURPLEPOLL? In 2012, a dozen states will decide whether President Obama is elected to a second term. The PurplePoll focuses exclusively on the Purple Electorate - likely voters only in these swing states. Updated regularly throughout the 2012 election cycle, the PurplePoll offers a unique lens through which you can gather original insight into this critical election. The PurplePoll has built a reputation for accurate, unbiased and cutting-edge polling and analysis. It has been cited on television, in print, and online by sources that span the political spectrum, including: MSNBC, Fox News, ABC News, the Wall Street Journal, Talking Points Memo, Slate, Politico, the National Review and dozens of others. And we will continue to bring you this analysis through the November election, and beyond. For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [[email protected]] or Bruce Haynes [[email protected]], at 703-548-7877. To subscribe, e-mail us at [email protected].

For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [[email protected]] at 703-548-7877.

June 2012

PURPLEPOLL Romney improves across Purple States and leads in Ohio and Florida; Obama still leads in Purple America, Virginia and Colorado. Mitt Romney is closing the gap with President Obama across Purple States, as Republicans consolidate and independents lean toward Romney. Our last two Purple Polls showed President Obama and Mitt Romney with a 4-point ballot gap. June’s results show this gap has shrunk to 2 points, a statistical dead heat. The results show Barack Obama with 48% and Mitt Romney with 46% of the vote; 7% remain undecided. This marks the first time since January that the candidates were within 2 points of each other in these critical Purple States. Despite still trailing, Mitt Romney has reached his highest vote total since our tracking began in September of 2011. Romney continues to consolidate support among Republicans (86%, up from 82% in April). At the same time, President Obama has seen his support among independents shrink by 4 points, to 40%. Obama continues to lead Romney among women (by 9 points), though that lead has shrunk from 11 points in April. Purple Predictor States: Obama holds slim leads in Virginia and Colorado, while Romney leads in Florida and has moved up in Ohio.

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Since our last poll, President Obama has improved his position in Virginia (49% to 46%, up 1 point from April) and Colorado (48% to 46%, tied at 47% in April). Mitt Romney has expanded his lead from 2 points to 4 in Florida (49% to 45%). The largest movement we have seen since April is in Ohio: in our last poll, Obama led Romney by 5 points (49% to 44%). Today, Romney has taken a 3-point lead in the state, 48% to 45%. His strength in the state is fueled by a nearly complete consolidation of Republicans, with 91% offering him their support. This is higher than his support among GOP voters in the other three Purple Predictor States, which ranges from 83% to 87%. President Obama’s job performance and Mitt Romney’s favorability point to the fickle nature of independents in Purple States. Purple’s June results show President Obama’s job approval rating continues to be inverted: 47% approve of his job performance, and 49% disapprove. Since the last poll, his approval rating fell 2 points and his disapproval rating gained 5 points among independent voters (38% approve / 57% disapprove). Mitt Romney is also having trouble connecting with voters. Today, 39% have a favorable view, 49% unfavorable. While these numbers showed a large bump in our April poll, they are unchanged since. He also has problems among independent voters: 39% have a favorable view, 47% unfavorable. At this early stage, Romney appears to have an upper hand with independents, but they are clearly disenchanted with both candidates.

 PURPLE ANALYSIS

Purple State voters continue to have a gloomy outlook. The initial improvement we had been seeing in perceptions about the country’s direction has stalled out. Between November and March, the share of Purple State voters who agreed that the country was moving in the right direction increased by 16 points, (from 20% to 36%), while those who thought the country was seriously off on the wrong track declined by 14 points (from 71% to 57%). Since then, these numbers haven’t changed (36% right direction, 57% wrong track). Perhaps more problematic, Purple State voters are concerned about long-term, fundamental decline in America. Forty-seven percent (47%) agree with the statement “this is the start of a longer-term decline where the US is no longer the leading country in the world.” By contrast, 45% believe “we are experiencing the kind of tough times the country faces from time to time.” This pessimism about America’s future is particularly acute among independent voters, among whom a majority (53%) believes that we are on the verge of long-term decline. Hedge fund/private equity arguments may provide a key wedge issue for Obama, though the argument appears to fall short in two of the four key predictor states. Discussion of private equity and venture capital has moved front and center in the Presidential debate. To take a closer look, we explored arguments from the Obama and Romney campaigns (without specific reference to the candidates) about private equity and asked people to choose which one came closer to their view.

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For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [[email protected]] at 703-548-7877.

Overall, the Obama campaign position on private investment firms outperforms that of the Romney campaign: 47% believe that private investment firms hurt workers and cut jobs, while 38% believe that they foster economic growth and create jobs. Across Purple States, this argument has the hallmarks of a classic wedge issue for the President: it consolidates Democrats (64% to 22%) and has a plurality of support among independents (48% to 38%). However, in the Purple Predictor States, the results are more mixed. The President’s argument carries the strongest weight in Ohio (+16) and in Florida (+7). It is much more even in Colorado (+1) and Virginia (-2) – the predictor states that have better weathered the storm. While the overall results on this argument appear to bode well for the President, the electoral map dynamics may argue for a more subtle state-by-state strategy. Purple State voters across parties agree: Let’s take a break from the constant campaign! With five months to go before Election Day, we asked Purple State voters to choose whether they were “looking forward to hearing more from the candidates over the next five months as [they] prepare to make [their] choice for President,” or if they agreed that “we’d be better off if both presidential candidates stopped campaigning until Labor Day, and shortened the campaign to the two months after that. That would be more than enough time.” Sixty-one percent (61%) said that we’d be better off if the candidates took

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a break until Labor Day. Just 32% are looking forward to hearing more over the next five months. With a highly polarized electorate, this is one of the only questions we’ve asked that found bipartisan support: majorities of Republicans (63%), Democrats (56%) and independents (66%) would like to see a campaign ceasefire until September. Indeed, there is no single subgroup among which a majority thinks otherwise.

 PURPLE ANALYSIS

Obama holds an advantage on “has new ideas to lead us into the future” overall (+2), but trails Romney among independents (Romney +8). Purple State voters as a whole believe that “a typical politician” equally describes both candidates (41%), but independents believe it best describes Obama by 1 point. And Romney’s 6-point overall advantage on “will change the way Washington does business” expands to 13 points among independents.

With dozens of speeches, campaign events, tours, and over a billion dollars in TV ad spending and attack ads ahead of us, Purple State voters are communicating with one voice: let’s take a break. Purple Descriptors: Among independents, Obama has a strong advantage on caring about the middle class, while Romney has the edge on jobs and leading us into the future. In this poll, we once again look at candidate descriptors. Campaigns turn to these to understand where the electorate is moving – it’s a look underneath the vote. A striking general finding is that across every metric, President Obama lags behind Romney more among independents than he does overall. For example, President Obama holds a solid lead on “cares more about the middle class” (+13), though that lead is weaker among independents (+10). By contrast, Mitt Romney has a slight 1-point advantage on “knows what it takes to create jobs,” which climbs to 12 points among independents.

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 PURPLE OVERALL

For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [[email protected]] at 703-548-7877.

PURPLEPOLL

OVERALL:

June 2012

ABOUT PURPLE STRATEGIES Purple is a fully integrated, bipartisan team that excels at merging red and blue perspectives to find effective strategic solutions. We look to build a consensus that will support a public affairs initiative, influence a debate or stimulate change. Our team includes experts in opinion research, strategic communications, grassroots, government affairs, digital communications and creative. Recognizing the need for a balanced, bipartisan approach to corporate communications and issue advocacy, Alex Castellanos and Steve McMahon merged two well-established Republican and Democratic firms – National Media and Issue & Image – to create Purple Strategies. By joining forces, Purple brings together strategists and communication specialists from across the political spectrum, including veteran political strategists Bruce Haynes, Mark Squier, Rob Collins and Jim Jordan.

Direction of the Country

Just Tough Times or Long-Term Decline

Right Direction: 36% Wrong Track: 57% Not sure: 7%

Tough Times: 45% Long Term Decline: 47% Not sure: 8%

Obama Job

Views About the Election

Approve: 47% Disapprove: 49% Not sure: 4%

Looking forward to next five months: 32% Could wait until Labor Day: 61% Not sure: 7%

For more: www.purplestrategies.com

Romney Favorability

WHAT IS THE PURPLEPOLL? Unlike other polls, the PurplePoll focuses exclusively on the 12 states that are most likely to determine whether President Obama will win re-election: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin. These states were won by President Obama en route to his 365 electoral votes. Since 1996, nine of these states have swung between the Republican and Democratic candidates. Three states (MN, PA, and WI) have been decided by 3 points or less at least once since 2000. The voters in these states have held the presidential election balance for the past dozen years, and will continue to do so in 2012.

Favorable: 39% Unfavorable: 49% Not sure: 12%

Obama vs. Romney

Updated regularly throughout the 2012 election cycle, the PurplePoll will follow leading political indicators and track new issues as they emerge. It will offer a unique lens to gather original insight into this critical election.

Obama: 48% Romney: 46% Not sure: 7%

In addition to data from the overall Purple electorate, we divide the data into regional state clusters: “The Wild West” (CO, NV, NM), “The Heartland” (IA, MN, WI), “The Rust Belt” (NH, OH, PA) and “The Southern Swing” (NC, VA, FL). These groupings help provide more texture to our results. We also include statewide results for Colorado, Florida, Ohio, and Virginia.

Impact of Private Equity

The PurplePoll is fielded and analyzed by Purple Insights, the research division of Purple Strategies, the bipartisan public affairs firm. Fielded 5/31-6/5, using automated telephone interviews and RDD sample. Total weighted N size=2000 likely voters, margin of error +/-2.2. Each regional and state-level sample has margins of error of +/-4.0. Sample size for OH, FL, VA and CO is 600.

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Private equity helps economy: 38% Private equity hurts workers: 47% Not sure: 15%

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 PURPLE PREDICTOR STATES

For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [[email protected]] at 703-548-7877.

The Wild West: Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico

PURPLEPOLL

The Heartland: Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin The Rust Belt: New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania

June 2012

The Southern Swing: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia

Virginia

Colorado Direction of the Country

Just Tough Times or Long-Term Decline

Direction of the Country

Just Tough Times or Long-Term Decline

Right Direction: 37% Wrong Track: 57% Not sure: 6%

Tough Times: 47% Long Term Decline: 46% Not sure: 7%

Right Direction: 36% Wrong Track: 58% Not sure: 6%

Tough Times: 50% Long Term Decline: 44% Not sure: 5%

Obama Job

Views About the Election

Obama Job

Views About the Election

Approve: 48% Disapprove: 48% Not sure: 5%

Looking forward to next five months: 30% Could wait until Labor Day: 63% Not sure: 7%

Approve: 45% Disapprove: 51% Not sure: 5%

Looking forward to next five months: 34% Could wait until Labor Day: 59% Not sure: 7%

Romney Favorability

Romney Favorability

Favorable: 42% Unfavorable: 50% Not sure: 7%

Favorable: 43% Unfavorable: 49% Not sure: 8%

Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Romney

Obama: 48% Romney: 46% Not sure: 5%

Obama: 49% Romney: 46% Not sure: 5%

Impact of Private Equity

Impact of Private Equity

Private equity helps economy: 43% Private equity hurts workers: 44% Not sure: 13%

Private equity helps economy: 44% Private equity hurts workers: 42% Not sure: 14%

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 PURPLE PREDICTOR STATES

For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [[email protected]] at 703-548-7877.

The Wild West: Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico

PURPLEPOLL

The Heartland: Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin The Rust Belt: New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania

June 2012

The Southern Swing: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia

Florida

Ohio Direction of the Country

Just Tough Times or Long-Term Decline

Direction of the Country

Just Tough Times or Long-Term Decline

Right Direction: 31% Wrong Track: 62% Not sure: 6%

Tough Times: 39% Long Term Decline: 54% Not sure: 8%

Right Direction: 36% Wrong Track: 56% Not sure: 8%

Tough Times: 41% Long Term Decline: 49% Not sure: 10%

Obama Job

Views About the Election

Obama Job

Views About the Election

Approve: 43% Disapprove: 52% Not sure: 5%

Looking forward to next five months: 29% Could wait until Labor Day: 65% Not sure: 6%

Approve: 45% Disapprove: 50% Not sure: 5%

Looking forward to next five months: 33% Could wait until Labor Day: 59% Not sure: 8%

Romney Favorability

Romney Favorability

Favorable: 38% Unfavorable: 48% Not sure: 13%

Favorable: 43% Unfavorable: 47% Not sure: 11%

Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Romney

Obama: 45% Romney: 48% Not sure: 8%

Obama: 45% Romney: 49% Not sure: 6%

Impact of Private Equity

Impact of Private Equity

Private equity helps economy: 33% Private equity hurts workers: 49% Not sure: 18%

Private equity helps economy: 40% Private equity hurts workers: 47% Not sure: 14%

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 PURPLE OVERALL

For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [[email protected]] at 703-548-7877.

The Wild West: Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico

PURPLEPOLL

The Heartland: Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin

PURPLE TRACKING

The Rust Belt: New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania

June 2012

The Southern Swing: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia

Direction of the Country 80%

Obama Job Approval 60%

71%

69%

70%

60%

60%

Wrong Track

50%

Right Direction

40%

Not Sure

30%

57%

57%

36%

36%

50% 45%

41%

41%

41%

50%

50%

48%

49%

46%

47%

47%

Feb. ‘12

Mar. ‘12

Apr. ‘12

Jun‘12

48%

44%

30% 20%

Approve

20%

Not Sure

10%

10% 0%

0% Nov. ‘11

Dec. ‘12

Feb.‘12

Mar. ‘12

Jun. ‘12

Romney Favorability

54%

50%

45%

57%

30%

30% 20%

47%

29%

30%

27%

48%

49%

38%

39%

29%

50%

46%

45%

40%

43%

45%

30%

Dec. ‘11

Jan. ‘12

47%

46%

47%

43%

44%

43%

Jan. ‘12

Feb. ‘12

48%

44%

44%

Mar. ‘12

Apr. ‘12

48% 46%

Barack Obama Mitt Romney

20%

Unfavorable

Not Sure

Favorable

10%

Nov. ‘11

60%

56%

39% 32%

Sep. ‘11

Obama vs. Romney

60%

40%

53%

Disapprove

22%

20%

52%

50% 40%

32%

53%

10%

Not Sure

0%

0% Sep. ‘11 SUBSCRIBE TO

Nov. ‘11

PURPLEPOLL

Dec. ‘11 Jan. ‘12

Feb. ‘12

Mar. ‘12

[email protected]

Apr. ‘12

Jun ‘12

Sep. ‘11

Nov. ‘11

Dec. ‘11

Jun. ‘12 7

 PURPLE JUNE 2012 MAIN QUESTIONNAIRE

For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [[email protected]] at 703-548-7877.

The Wild West: Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico

PURPLEPOLL

The Heartland: Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin The Rust Belt: New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania

June 2012

The Southern Swing: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia

%

June 2012 Main Questionnaire

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Region

Party

Gender

By State

Total April-12 Mar’12 Feb’12 Jan’12 Dec‘11 Nov‘11 Sep‘11

Male Female GOP

Ind

Education Dem Non-Coll Coll+

Are things in this country Right direction generally going in the right direction or are they pretty Wrong track seriously off on the Not sure wrong track?

36

-

36

32

-

22

20

-

34

40

34

33

37

36

31

36

34

37

10

27

64

36

36

57

-

57

60

-

69

71

-

59

51

60

59

57

58

62

56

59

55

87

66

26

56

59

7

-

7

9

-

9

9

-

7

9

6

8

6

6

6

8

6

8

4

7

10

9

5

Do you approve or disapprove Approve of the job Barack Obama is Disapprove doing as president? Not sure

47

47

46

44

45

41

41

41

47

52

46

45

48

45

43

45

44

49

10

38

85

47

47

49

48

50

50

50

53

52

53

49

44

51

51

48

51

52

50

53

46

87

57

12

49

50

4

5

4

6

6

6

6

7

4

4

3

4

5

5

5

5

3

4

3

5

3

5

3

Favorable

39

38

29

27

30

29

30

32

44

37

34

41

42

43

38

43

43

35

68

39

13

38

40

Unfavorable

49

48

56

57

54

47

45

39

47

54

50

48

50

49

48

47

47

51

18

47

78

48

50

Not sure

12

15

14

16

16

24

25

29

9

9

15

11

7

8

13

11

10

14

14

14

9

14

10

48

48

48

47

46

47

45

43

46

54

47

45

48

49

45

45

44

51

10

40

86

48

47

46

44

44

43

44

43

45

46

48

38

45

48

46

46

48

49

49

42

86

46

11

44

48

7

8

8

10

10

11

11

11

6

8

8

7

5

5

8

6

6

7

4

14

4

8

5

Obama

42

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

41

48

44

40

45

42

38

41

39

45

10

34

76

42

43

Romney

40

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

42

33

38

43

39

42

42

42

45

36

73

42

10

38

43

Not Sure

18

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

17

19

18

17

16

16

20

17

16

19

17

24

14

21

14

Obama

41

42

-

-

-

-

-

-

43

36

38

46

37

41

37

44

45

38

63

41

23

41

41

Romney

41

41

-

-

-

-

-

-

40

47

44

37

44

40

42

37

39

42

20

40

59

38

44

Not Sure

18

17

-

-

-

-

-

-

17

16

17

17

19

19

21

19

16

20

18

19

17

21

15

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of Mitt Romney?

If the 2012 presidential election Obama were held today and the candidates were: Democrat Barack Obama and Romney Republican Mitt Romney, for whom Not Sure would you vote?

Has new ideas to lead us into the future?

A typical politician?

Fielded 5/31-6/5, using automated telephone interviews and RDD sample. Total weighted N size=2000 likely voters, margin of error +/-­2.2. Each regional and state-level sample has margins of error of +/-4.0. Sample size for OH, FL, VA and CO is 600.

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8

 PURPLE JUNE 2012 MAIN QUESTIONNAIRE

For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [[email protected]] at 703-548-7877.

The Wild West: Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico

PURPLEPOLL

The Heartland: Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin The Rust Belt: New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania

June 2012

The Southern Swing: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia

%

June 2012 Main Questionnaire

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Region

Party

Gender

By State

Total April-12 Mar’12 Feb’12 Jan’12 Dec‘11 Nov‘11 Sep‘11

Male Female GOP

Ind

Education Dem Non-Coll Coll+

Obama

49

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

46

53

47

49

50

49

46

48

47

52

14

46

82

47

52

Romney

36

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

40

33

33

38

37

39

34

39

39

33

67

36

9

35

37

Not Sure

15

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

14

14

19

13

13

12

20

13

14

15

18

18

9

18

11

Obama

42

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

37

48

40

42

40

43

40

42

39

45

8

33

78

43

41

Romney

43

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

47

39

43

44

43

47

43

45

48

39

80

45

11

42

45

Not Sure

15

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

16

13

17

14

17

10

17

13

13

16

12

23

11

15

15

I have serious concerns about Obama what he would do to the country Romney over the next four years. Not Sure

48

48

-

-

-

-

-

-

48

43

47

51

47

49

46

50

51

45

78

48

22

48

47

44

43

-

-

-

-

-

-

44

48

46

40

46

44

45

42

42

45

16

40

70

41

47

9

9

-

-

-

-

-

-

8

9

7

9

7

7

9

7

6

11

6

12

8

11

6

Obama

32

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

29

37

29

32

29

31

28

32

30

34

11

24

55

32

31

Romney

38

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

40

33

37

38

37

36

37

41

41

35

65

37

16

39

36

Not Sure

30

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

32

30

34

30

34

33

35

27

30

31

25

40

29

28

33

Private equity helps economy

38

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

41

35

35

40

43

44

33

40

44

33

57

38

22

37

39

Private equity hurts workers

47

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

45

48

50

46

44

42

49

47

47

47

26

48

64

46

48

Not sure

15

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

14

17

15

14

13

14

18

14

9

20

17

14

14

17

13

Tough Times

45

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

44

49

42

43

47

50

39

41

43

46

24

39

66

45

45

Long Term Decline

47

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

50

44

50

49

46

44

54

49

52

44

69

53

25

47

48

Not Sure

8

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

6

7

8

8

7

5

8

10

5

10

7

7

8

8

7

Looking forward to the next five months

32

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

32

32

29

34

30

34

29

33

32

31

29

26

38

36

26

Could wait until Labor Day

61

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

59

63

64

58

63

59

65

59

61

61

63

66

56

56

67

Not Sure

7

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

10

6

7

8

7

7

6

8

6

8

8

8

6

8

7

Cares more about the middle class?

Knows what it takes to create jobs?

Will change the way Washington does business.

Impact of private equity.

Just tough times or long-term decline?

Views About the Election.

Fielded 5/31-6/5, using automated telephone interviews and RDD sample. Total weighted N size=2000 likely voters, margin of error +/-­2.2. Each regional and state-level sample has margins of error of +/-4.0. Sample size for OH, FL, VA and CO is 600.

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9

 PURPLE JUNE 2012 STATE RESULTS

For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [[email protected]] at 703-548-7877.

PURPLEPOLL June 2012

COLORADO

%

%

Party

Gender

Total April-12 Male Female GOP

Direction of the Country

Obama Job

37

-

34

39

12

25

70

34

39

Wrong track

57

-

58

56

84

71

21

60

55

Not sure

6

-

8

5

4

5

9

6

6

Approve

48

43

46

50

13

37

88

43

51

Disapprove

48

53

50

46

82

58

8

51

44

Not sure

5

4

4

5

5

4

4

5

4

Favorable

42

36

46

39

74

44

14

44

41

50

51

49

51

18

49

80

48

52

Not sure

7

14

5

9

8

7

7

8

7

Obama

48

47

45

51

11

45

84

45

51

Romney

46

47

50

43

85

47

12

48

45

Not Sure

5

6

5

6

4

8

4

7

4

OHIO

%

%

Party

Gender

Total April-12 Male Female GOP

Obama Job

Obama vs. Romney

Ind

-

29

33

7

27

57

31

32

Wrong track

62

-

65

59

92

63

35

61

64

Not sure

6

-

5

7

1

10

9

8

5

Approve

43

47

40

46

6

42

78

41

47

Disapprove

52

47

55

49

92

49

17

53

51

Not sure

5

5

6

4

2

8

5

6

3

Favorable

38

34

44

33

70

37

11

39

38

48

54

45

51

15

48

79

45

52

Not sure

13

12

11

15

15

16

10

15

10

Obama

45

49

39

50

3

44

82

42

48

Romney

48

44

51

44

91

42

12

48

47

Not Sure

8

7

10

6

6

14

5

10

5

PURPLEPOLL

Direction of the Country

Party

Gender

Obama Job

Dem Non- Coll Coll+

36

-

30

41

6

25

74

34

38

Wrong track

58

-

66

52

91

72

17

60

57

Not sure

6

-

4

7

3

4

9

6

5

Approve

45

45

38

50

8

36

87

45

44

Disapprove

51

50

60

43

91

57

7

50

52

Not sure

5

6

2

6

1

7

6

5

4

Favorable

43

36

48

38

76

41

12

42

44

49

48

45

53

17

45

83

50

48

Not sure

8

16

7

9

7

14

5

8

8

Obama

49

48

42

54

11

38

93

50

47

Romney

46

46

52

41

87

50

4

44

48

Not Sure

5

6

6

4

2

12

3

6

4

%

%

Gender

Romney Favorability Unfavorable Obama vs. Romney

Ind

Education

Right direction

FLORIDA

Dem Non- Coll Coll+

31

N=600, margin of error +\- 4.0.

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%

Total April-12 Male Female GOP

Education

Right direction

Romney Favorability Unfavorable

%

N=600, margin of error +\- 4.0.

N=600, margin of error +\- 4.0.

Direction of the Country

VIRGINIA

Dem Non- Coll Coll+

Right direction

Romney Favorability Unfavorable Obama vs. Romney

Ind

Education

Party

Total April-12 Male Female GOP

Direction of the Country

Obama Job

Dem Non- Coll Coll+

Right direction

36

-

39

34

9

28

67

35

38

Wrong track

56

-

54

58

86

63

23

56

57

Not sure

8

-

7

9

5

9

10

10

6

Approve

45

46

44

45

11

35

84

44

46

Disapprove

50

50

51

50

84

60

11

51

50

Not sure

5

4

5

5

5

5

4

5

4

Favorable

43

45

48

38

71

48

12

42

43

47

44

44

48

20

39

77

44

49

Not sure

11

12

8

13

9

13

11

13

8

Obama

45

45

44

46

13

34

82

44

45

Romney

49

47

51

48

83

54

13

49

50

Not Sure

6

7

6

7

4

12

5

8

4

Romney Favorability Unfavorable Obama vs. Romney

Ind

Education

N=600, margin of error +\- 4.0.

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 PURPLE JUNE 2012 MAIN QUESTIONNAIRE

For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [[email protected]] at 703-548-7877.

PURPLEPOLL June 2012

The Wild West: Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico The Heartland: Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin The Rust Belt: New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania The Southern Swing: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia

June 2012 Main Questionnaire 1. Are things in this country generally going in the right direction or are they pretty seriously off on the wrong track?

8. Knows what it takes to create jobs.

1) Right Direction

9. I have serious concerns about what he would do to the country over the next four years.

2) Wrong Track

10. Will change the way Washington does business.

3) Not sure 2. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?

11. Which of the following comes closer to your view?

1) Approve

1) Private investment and equity firms help the American economy grow. They launch new companies and rebuild existing ones, including some of the biggest employers in America. Their work has created millions of jobs, and will help drive America’s recovery.

2) Disapprove 3) Not sure

2) Unfavorable

2) Private investment and equity firms care only about profits and short-term gains for investors. When they come in, workers get laid off, benefits disappear, and pensions are cut. Investors walk off with big returns, and working folks get stuck holding the bag.

3) Not sure

3) Not sure

4. If the 2012 presidential election were held today and the candidates were: Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote?

12. All in all, do you feel we are experiencing the kind of tough times the country faces from time to time, or is this the start of a longer-term decline where the US is no longer the leading country in the world?

3. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of Mitt Romney? 1) Favorable

1) Barack Obama

1) Tough Times

2) Mitt Romney

2) Long Term Decline

3) Not sure

3) Not sure

You will now hear a series of phrases. For each one, if the phrase better describes Barack Obama, press 1 and if the phrase better describes Mitt Romney, press 2. If you are not sure, press 3.

13. Which of the following comes closer to your view?

5. Has new ideas to lead us into the future.

1) I’m looking forward to hearing more from the candidates over the next five months as I prepare to make my choice for President.

6. A typical politician. 7. Cares more about the middle class.

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2) We’d be better off if both presidential candidates stopped campaigning until Labor Day, and shorten the campaign to the two months after that. That would be more than enough time. 3) Not sure

11

 PURPLE DESCRIPTOR TRACKING RESULTS

For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [[email protected]] at 703-548-7877.

PURPLEPOLL June 2012

OVERALL

ADV.*

Barack Obama

Mitt Romney

INDEPENDENTS

ADV.*

0

0

42

40

2

Has new ideas to lead us into the future

8

34

42

41

41

0

A typical politician (June ‘12)

1

41

40

42

41

1

A typical politician (April ‘12)

4

43

39

49

36

13

Cares more about the middle class

10

46

36

42

43

1

Knows what it takes to create jobs

12

33

45

48

44

4

I have serious concerns about what he would do to the country over the next four years (June ‘12)

8

48

40

48

43

5

I have serious concerns about what he would do to the country over the next four years (April ‘12)

11

48

37

32

38

6

Will change the way Washington does business

13

24

37

*slight differences due to rounding

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12