Jun 12, 2012 - and Colorado, while Romney leads in Florida and has moved up in Ohio .... The PurplePoll is fielded and a
June 2012 Edition
PURPLEPOLL PURPLE INSIGHTS
WHY THE PURPLEPOLL? In 2012, a dozen states will decide whether President Obama is elected to a second term. The PurplePoll focuses exclusively on the Purple Electorate - likely voters only in these swing states. Updated regularly throughout the 2012 election cycle, the PurplePoll offers a unique lens through which you can gather original insight into this critical election. The PurplePoll has built a reputation for accurate, unbiased and cutting-edge polling and analysis. It has been cited on television, in print, and online by sources that span the political spectrum, including: MSNBC, Fox News, ABC News, the Wall Street Journal, Talking Points Memo, Slate, Politico, the National Review and dozens of others. And we will continue to bring you this analysis through the November election, and beyond. For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [
[email protected]] or Bruce Haynes [
[email protected]], at 703-548-7877. To subscribe, e-mail us at
[email protected].
For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [
[email protected]] at 703-548-7877.
June 2012
PURPLEPOLL Romney improves across Purple States and leads in Ohio and Florida; Obama still leads in Purple America, Virginia and Colorado. Mitt Romney is closing the gap with President Obama across Purple States, as Republicans consolidate and independents lean toward Romney. Our last two Purple Polls showed President Obama and Mitt Romney with a 4-point ballot gap. June’s results show this gap has shrunk to 2 points, a statistical dead heat. The results show Barack Obama with 48% and Mitt Romney with 46% of the vote; 7% remain undecided. This marks the first time since January that the candidates were within 2 points of each other in these critical Purple States. Despite still trailing, Mitt Romney has reached his highest vote total since our tracking began in September of 2011. Romney continues to consolidate support among Republicans (86%, up from 82% in April). At the same time, President Obama has seen his support among independents shrink by 4 points, to 40%. Obama continues to lead Romney among women (by 9 points), though that lead has shrunk from 11 points in April. Purple Predictor States: Obama holds slim leads in Virginia and Colorado, while Romney leads in Florida and has moved up in Ohio.
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Since our last poll, President Obama has improved his position in Virginia (49% to 46%, up 1 point from April) and Colorado (48% to 46%, tied at 47% in April). Mitt Romney has expanded his lead from 2 points to 4 in Florida (49% to 45%). The largest movement we have seen since April is in Ohio: in our last poll, Obama led Romney by 5 points (49% to 44%). Today, Romney has taken a 3-point lead in the state, 48% to 45%. His strength in the state is fueled by a nearly complete consolidation of Republicans, with 91% offering him their support. This is higher than his support among GOP voters in the other three Purple Predictor States, which ranges from 83% to 87%. President Obama’s job performance and Mitt Romney’s favorability point to the fickle nature of independents in Purple States. Purple’s June results show President Obama’s job approval rating continues to be inverted: 47% approve of his job performance, and 49% disapprove. Since the last poll, his approval rating fell 2 points and his disapproval rating gained 5 points among independent voters (38% approve / 57% disapprove). Mitt Romney is also having trouble connecting with voters. Today, 39% have a favorable view, 49% unfavorable. While these numbers showed a large bump in our April poll, they are unchanged since. He also has problems among independent voters: 39% have a favorable view, 47% unfavorable. At this early stage, Romney appears to have an upper hand with independents, but they are clearly disenchanted with both candidates.
PURPLE ANALYSIS
Purple State voters continue to have a gloomy outlook. The initial improvement we had been seeing in perceptions about the country’s direction has stalled out. Between November and March, the share of Purple State voters who agreed that the country was moving in the right direction increased by 16 points, (from 20% to 36%), while those who thought the country was seriously off on the wrong track declined by 14 points (from 71% to 57%). Since then, these numbers haven’t changed (36% right direction, 57% wrong track). Perhaps more problematic, Purple State voters are concerned about long-term, fundamental decline in America. Forty-seven percent (47%) agree with the statement “this is the start of a longer-term decline where the US is no longer the leading country in the world.” By contrast, 45% believe “we are experiencing the kind of tough times the country faces from time to time.” This pessimism about America’s future is particularly acute among independent voters, among whom a majority (53%) believes that we are on the verge of long-term decline. Hedge fund/private equity arguments may provide a key wedge issue for Obama, though the argument appears to fall short in two of the four key predictor states. Discussion of private equity and venture capital has moved front and center in the Presidential debate. To take a closer look, we explored arguments from the Obama and Romney campaigns (without specific reference to the candidates) about private equity and asked people to choose which one came closer to their view.
2
For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [
[email protected]] at 703-548-7877.
Overall, the Obama campaign position on private investment firms outperforms that of the Romney campaign: 47% believe that private investment firms hurt workers and cut jobs, while 38% believe that they foster economic growth and create jobs. Across Purple States, this argument has the hallmarks of a classic wedge issue for the President: it consolidates Democrats (64% to 22%) and has a plurality of support among independents (48% to 38%). However, in the Purple Predictor States, the results are more mixed. The President’s argument carries the strongest weight in Ohio (+16) and in Florida (+7). It is much more even in Colorado (+1) and Virginia (-2) – the predictor states that have better weathered the storm. While the overall results on this argument appear to bode well for the President, the electoral map dynamics may argue for a more subtle state-by-state strategy. Purple State voters across parties agree: Let’s take a break from the constant campaign! With five months to go before Election Day, we asked Purple State voters to choose whether they were “looking forward to hearing more from the candidates over the next five months as [they] prepare to make [their] choice for President,” or if they agreed that “we’d be better off if both presidential candidates stopped campaigning until Labor Day, and shortened the campaign to the two months after that. That would be more than enough time.” Sixty-one percent (61%) said that we’d be better off if the candidates took
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a break until Labor Day. Just 32% are looking forward to hearing more over the next five months. With a highly polarized electorate, this is one of the only questions we’ve asked that found bipartisan support: majorities of Republicans (63%), Democrats (56%) and independents (66%) would like to see a campaign ceasefire until September. Indeed, there is no single subgroup among which a majority thinks otherwise.
PURPLE ANALYSIS
Obama holds an advantage on “has new ideas to lead us into the future” overall (+2), but trails Romney among independents (Romney +8). Purple State voters as a whole believe that “a typical politician” equally describes both candidates (41%), but independents believe it best describes Obama by 1 point. And Romney’s 6-point overall advantage on “will change the way Washington does business” expands to 13 points among independents.
With dozens of speeches, campaign events, tours, and over a billion dollars in TV ad spending and attack ads ahead of us, Purple State voters are communicating with one voice: let’s take a break. Purple Descriptors: Among independents, Obama has a strong advantage on caring about the middle class, while Romney has the edge on jobs and leading us into the future. In this poll, we once again look at candidate descriptors. Campaigns turn to these to understand where the electorate is moving – it’s a look underneath the vote. A striking general finding is that across every metric, President Obama lags behind Romney more among independents than he does overall. For example, President Obama holds a solid lead on “cares more about the middle class” (+13), though that lead is weaker among independents (+10). By contrast, Mitt Romney has a slight 1-point advantage on “knows what it takes to create jobs,” which climbs to 12 points among independents.
3
PURPLE OVERALL
For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [
[email protected]] at 703-548-7877.
PURPLEPOLL
OVERALL:
June 2012
ABOUT PURPLE STRATEGIES Purple is a fully integrated, bipartisan team that excels at merging red and blue perspectives to find effective strategic solutions. We look to build a consensus that will support a public affairs initiative, influence a debate or stimulate change. Our team includes experts in opinion research, strategic communications, grassroots, government affairs, digital communications and creative. Recognizing the need for a balanced, bipartisan approach to corporate communications and issue advocacy, Alex Castellanos and Steve McMahon merged two well-established Republican and Democratic firms – National Media and Issue & Image – to create Purple Strategies. By joining forces, Purple brings together strategists and communication specialists from across the political spectrum, including veteran political strategists Bruce Haynes, Mark Squier, Rob Collins and Jim Jordan.
Direction of the Country
Just Tough Times or Long-Term Decline
Right Direction: 36% Wrong Track: 57% Not sure: 7%
Tough Times: 45% Long Term Decline: 47% Not sure: 8%
Obama Job
Views About the Election
Approve: 47% Disapprove: 49% Not sure: 4%
Looking forward to next five months: 32% Could wait until Labor Day: 61% Not sure: 7%
For more: www.purplestrategies.com
Romney Favorability
WHAT IS THE PURPLEPOLL? Unlike other polls, the PurplePoll focuses exclusively on the 12 states that are most likely to determine whether President Obama will win re-election: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin. These states were won by President Obama en route to his 365 electoral votes. Since 1996, nine of these states have swung between the Republican and Democratic candidates. Three states (MN, PA, and WI) have been decided by 3 points or less at least once since 2000. The voters in these states have held the presidential election balance for the past dozen years, and will continue to do so in 2012.
Favorable: 39% Unfavorable: 49% Not sure: 12%
Obama vs. Romney
Updated regularly throughout the 2012 election cycle, the PurplePoll will follow leading political indicators and track new issues as they emerge. It will offer a unique lens to gather original insight into this critical election.
Obama: 48% Romney: 46% Not sure: 7%
In addition to data from the overall Purple electorate, we divide the data into regional state clusters: “The Wild West” (CO, NV, NM), “The Heartland” (IA, MN, WI), “The Rust Belt” (NH, OH, PA) and “The Southern Swing” (NC, VA, FL). These groupings help provide more texture to our results. We also include statewide results for Colorado, Florida, Ohio, and Virginia.
Impact of Private Equity
The PurplePoll is fielded and analyzed by Purple Insights, the research division of Purple Strategies, the bipartisan public affairs firm. Fielded 5/31-6/5, using automated telephone interviews and RDD sample. Total weighted N size=2000 likely voters, margin of error +/-2.2. Each regional and state-level sample has margins of error of +/-4.0. Sample size for OH, FL, VA and CO is 600.
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Private equity helps economy: 38% Private equity hurts workers: 47% Not sure: 15%
4
PURPLE PREDICTOR STATES
For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [
[email protected]] at 703-548-7877.
The Wild West: Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico
PURPLEPOLL
The Heartland: Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin The Rust Belt: New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania
June 2012
The Southern Swing: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia
Virginia
Colorado Direction of the Country
Just Tough Times or Long-Term Decline
Direction of the Country
Just Tough Times or Long-Term Decline
Right Direction: 37% Wrong Track: 57% Not sure: 6%
Tough Times: 47% Long Term Decline: 46% Not sure: 7%
Right Direction: 36% Wrong Track: 58% Not sure: 6%
Tough Times: 50% Long Term Decline: 44% Not sure: 5%
Obama Job
Views About the Election
Obama Job
Views About the Election
Approve: 48% Disapprove: 48% Not sure: 5%
Looking forward to next five months: 30% Could wait until Labor Day: 63% Not sure: 7%
Approve: 45% Disapprove: 51% Not sure: 5%
Looking forward to next five months: 34% Could wait until Labor Day: 59% Not sure: 7%
Romney Favorability
Romney Favorability
Favorable: 42% Unfavorable: 50% Not sure: 7%
Favorable: 43% Unfavorable: 49% Not sure: 8%
Obama vs. Romney
Obama vs. Romney
Obama: 48% Romney: 46% Not sure: 5%
Obama: 49% Romney: 46% Not sure: 5%
Impact of Private Equity
Impact of Private Equity
Private equity helps economy: 43% Private equity hurts workers: 44% Not sure: 13%
Private equity helps economy: 44% Private equity hurts workers: 42% Not sure: 14%
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5
PURPLE PREDICTOR STATES
For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [
[email protected]] at 703-548-7877.
The Wild West: Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico
PURPLEPOLL
The Heartland: Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin The Rust Belt: New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania
June 2012
The Southern Swing: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia
Florida
Ohio Direction of the Country
Just Tough Times or Long-Term Decline
Direction of the Country
Just Tough Times or Long-Term Decline
Right Direction: 31% Wrong Track: 62% Not sure: 6%
Tough Times: 39% Long Term Decline: 54% Not sure: 8%
Right Direction: 36% Wrong Track: 56% Not sure: 8%
Tough Times: 41% Long Term Decline: 49% Not sure: 10%
Obama Job
Views About the Election
Obama Job
Views About the Election
Approve: 43% Disapprove: 52% Not sure: 5%
Looking forward to next five months: 29% Could wait until Labor Day: 65% Not sure: 6%
Approve: 45% Disapprove: 50% Not sure: 5%
Looking forward to next five months: 33% Could wait until Labor Day: 59% Not sure: 8%
Romney Favorability
Romney Favorability
Favorable: 38% Unfavorable: 48% Not sure: 13%
Favorable: 43% Unfavorable: 47% Not sure: 11%
Obama vs. Romney
Obama vs. Romney
Obama: 45% Romney: 48% Not sure: 8%
Obama: 45% Romney: 49% Not sure: 6%
Impact of Private Equity
Impact of Private Equity
Private equity helps economy: 33% Private equity hurts workers: 49% Not sure: 18%
Private equity helps economy: 40% Private equity hurts workers: 47% Not sure: 14%
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PURPLE OVERALL
For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [
[email protected]] at 703-548-7877.
The Wild West: Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico
PURPLEPOLL
The Heartland: Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin
PURPLE TRACKING
The Rust Belt: New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania
June 2012
The Southern Swing: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia
Direction of the Country 80%
Obama Job Approval 60%
71%
69%
70%
60%
60%
Wrong Track
50%
Right Direction
40%
Not Sure
30%
57%
57%
36%
36%
50% 45%
41%
41%
41%
50%
50%
48%
49%
46%
47%
47%
Feb. ‘12
Mar. ‘12
Apr. ‘12
Jun‘12
48%
44%
30% 20%
Approve
20%
Not Sure
10%
10% 0%
0% Nov. ‘11
Dec. ‘12
Feb.‘12
Mar. ‘12
Jun. ‘12
Romney Favorability
54%
50%
45%
57%
30%
30% 20%
47%
29%
30%
27%
48%
49%
38%
39%
29%
50%
46%
45%
40%
43%
45%
30%
Dec. ‘11
Jan. ‘12
47%
46%
47%
43%
44%
43%
Jan. ‘12
Feb. ‘12
48%
44%
44%
Mar. ‘12
Apr. ‘12
48% 46%
Barack Obama Mitt Romney
20%
Unfavorable
Not Sure
Favorable
10%
Nov. ‘11
60%
56%
39% 32%
Sep. ‘11
Obama vs. Romney
60%
40%
53%
Disapprove
22%
20%
52%
50% 40%
32%
53%
10%
Not Sure
0%
0% Sep. ‘11 SUBSCRIBE TO
Nov. ‘11
PURPLEPOLL
Dec. ‘11 Jan. ‘12
Feb. ‘12
Mar. ‘12
[email protected]
Apr. ‘12
Jun ‘12
Sep. ‘11
Nov. ‘11
Dec. ‘11
Jun. ‘12 7
PURPLE JUNE 2012 MAIN QUESTIONNAIRE
For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [
[email protected]] at 703-548-7877.
The Wild West: Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico
PURPLEPOLL
The Heartland: Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin The Rust Belt: New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania
June 2012
The Southern Swing: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia
%
June 2012 Main Questionnaire
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
Region
Party
Gender
By State
Total April-12 Mar’12 Feb’12 Jan’12 Dec‘11 Nov‘11 Sep‘11
Male Female GOP
Ind
Education Dem Non-Coll Coll+
Are things in this country Right direction generally going in the right direction or are they pretty Wrong track seriously off on the Not sure wrong track?
36
-
36
32
-
22
20
-
34
40
34
33
37
36
31
36
34
37
10
27
64
36
36
57
-
57
60
-
69
71
-
59
51
60
59
57
58
62
56
59
55
87
66
26
56
59
7
-
7
9
-
9
9
-
7
9
6
8
6
6
6
8
6
8
4
7
10
9
5
Do you approve or disapprove Approve of the job Barack Obama is Disapprove doing as president? Not sure
47
47
46
44
45
41
41
41
47
52
46
45
48
45
43
45
44
49
10
38
85
47
47
49
48
50
50
50
53
52
53
49
44
51
51
48
51
52
50
53
46
87
57
12
49
50
4
5
4
6
6
6
6
7
4
4
3
4
5
5
5
5
3
4
3
5
3
5
3
Favorable
39
38
29
27
30
29
30
32
44
37
34
41
42
43
38
43
43
35
68
39
13
38
40
Unfavorable
49
48
56
57
54
47
45
39
47
54
50
48
50
49
48
47
47
51
18
47
78
48
50
Not sure
12
15
14
16
16
24
25
29
9
9
15
11
7
8
13
11
10
14
14
14
9
14
10
48
48
48
47
46
47
45
43
46
54
47
45
48
49
45
45
44
51
10
40
86
48
47
46
44
44
43
44
43
45
46
48
38
45
48
46
46
48
49
49
42
86
46
11
44
48
7
8
8
10
10
11
11
11
6
8
8
7
5
5
8
6
6
7
4
14
4
8
5
Obama
42
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
41
48
44
40
45
42
38
41
39
45
10
34
76
42
43
Romney
40
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
42
33
38
43
39
42
42
42
45
36
73
42
10
38
43
Not Sure
18
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
17
19
18
17
16
16
20
17
16
19
17
24
14
21
14
Obama
41
42
-
-
-
-
-
-
43
36
38
46
37
41
37
44
45
38
63
41
23
41
41
Romney
41
41
-
-
-
-
-
-
40
47
44
37
44
40
42
37
39
42
20
40
59
38
44
Not Sure
18
17
-
-
-
-
-
-
17
16
17
17
19
19
21
19
16
20
18
19
17
21
15
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of Mitt Romney?
If the 2012 presidential election Obama were held today and the candidates were: Democrat Barack Obama and Romney Republican Mitt Romney, for whom Not Sure would you vote?
Has new ideas to lead us into the future?
A typical politician?
Fielded 5/31-6/5, using automated telephone interviews and RDD sample. Total weighted N size=2000 likely voters, margin of error +/-2.2. Each regional and state-level sample has margins of error of +/-4.0. Sample size for OH, FL, VA and CO is 600.
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8
PURPLE JUNE 2012 MAIN QUESTIONNAIRE
For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [
[email protected]] at 703-548-7877.
The Wild West: Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico
PURPLEPOLL
The Heartland: Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin The Rust Belt: New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania
June 2012
The Southern Swing: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia
%
June 2012 Main Questionnaire
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
Region
Party
Gender
By State
Total April-12 Mar’12 Feb’12 Jan’12 Dec‘11 Nov‘11 Sep‘11
Male Female GOP
Ind
Education Dem Non-Coll Coll+
Obama
49
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
46
53
47
49
50
49
46
48
47
52
14
46
82
47
52
Romney
36
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
40
33
33
38
37
39
34
39
39
33
67
36
9
35
37
Not Sure
15
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
14
14
19
13
13
12
20
13
14
15
18
18
9
18
11
Obama
42
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
37
48
40
42
40
43
40
42
39
45
8
33
78
43
41
Romney
43
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
47
39
43
44
43
47
43
45
48
39
80
45
11
42
45
Not Sure
15
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
16
13
17
14
17
10
17
13
13
16
12
23
11
15
15
I have serious concerns about Obama what he would do to the country Romney over the next four years. Not Sure
48
48
-
-
-
-
-
-
48
43
47
51
47
49
46
50
51
45
78
48
22
48
47
44
43
-
-
-
-
-
-
44
48
46
40
46
44
45
42
42
45
16
40
70
41
47
9
9
-
-
-
-
-
-
8
9
7
9
7
7
9
7
6
11
6
12
8
11
6
Obama
32
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
29
37
29
32
29
31
28
32
30
34
11
24
55
32
31
Romney
38
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
40
33
37
38
37
36
37
41
41
35
65
37
16
39
36
Not Sure
30
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
32
30
34
30
34
33
35
27
30
31
25
40
29
28
33
Private equity helps economy
38
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
41
35
35
40
43
44
33
40
44
33
57
38
22
37
39
Private equity hurts workers
47
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
45
48
50
46
44
42
49
47
47
47
26
48
64
46
48
Not sure
15
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
14
17
15
14
13
14
18
14
9
20
17
14
14
17
13
Tough Times
45
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
44
49
42
43
47
50
39
41
43
46
24
39
66
45
45
Long Term Decline
47
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
50
44
50
49
46
44
54
49
52
44
69
53
25
47
48
Not Sure
8
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
6
7
8
8
7
5
8
10
5
10
7
7
8
8
7
Looking forward to the next five months
32
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
32
32
29
34
30
34
29
33
32
31
29
26
38
36
26
Could wait until Labor Day
61
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
59
63
64
58
63
59
65
59
61
61
63
66
56
56
67
Not Sure
7
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
10
6
7
8
7
7
6
8
6
8
8
8
6
8
7
Cares more about the middle class?
Knows what it takes to create jobs?
Will change the way Washington does business.
Impact of private equity.
Just tough times or long-term decline?
Views About the Election.
Fielded 5/31-6/5, using automated telephone interviews and RDD sample. Total weighted N size=2000 likely voters, margin of error +/-2.2. Each regional and state-level sample has margins of error of +/-4.0. Sample size for OH, FL, VA and CO is 600.
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9
PURPLE JUNE 2012 STATE RESULTS
For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [
[email protected]] at 703-548-7877.
PURPLEPOLL June 2012
COLORADO
%
%
Party
Gender
Total April-12 Male Female GOP
Direction of the Country
Obama Job
37
-
34
39
12
25
70
34
39
Wrong track
57
-
58
56
84
71
21
60
55
Not sure
6
-
8
5
4
5
9
6
6
Approve
48
43
46
50
13
37
88
43
51
Disapprove
48
53
50
46
82
58
8
51
44
Not sure
5
4
4
5
5
4
4
5
4
Favorable
42
36
46
39
74
44
14
44
41
50
51
49
51
18
49
80
48
52
Not sure
7
14
5
9
8
7
7
8
7
Obama
48
47
45
51
11
45
84
45
51
Romney
46
47
50
43
85
47
12
48
45
Not Sure
5
6
5
6
4
8
4
7
4
OHIO
%
%
Party
Gender
Total April-12 Male Female GOP
Obama Job
Obama vs. Romney
Ind
-
29
33
7
27
57
31
32
Wrong track
62
-
65
59
92
63
35
61
64
Not sure
6
-
5
7
1
10
9
8
5
Approve
43
47
40
46
6
42
78
41
47
Disapprove
52
47
55
49
92
49
17
53
51
Not sure
5
5
6
4
2
8
5
6
3
Favorable
38
34
44
33
70
37
11
39
38
48
54
45
51
15
48
79
45
52
Not sure
13
12
11
15
15
16
10
15
10
Obama
45
49
39
50
3
44
82
42
48
Romney
48
44
51
44
91
42
12
48
47
Not Sure
8
7
10
6
6
14
5
10
5
PURPLEPOLL
Direction of the Country
Party
Gender
Obama Job
Dem Non- Coll Coll+
36
-
30
41
6
25
74
34
38
Wrong track
58
-
66
52
91
72
17
60
57
Not sure
6
-
4
7
3
4
9
6
5
Approve
45
45
38
50
8
36
87
45
44
Disapprove
51
50
60
43
91
57
7
50
52
Not sure
5
6
2
6
1
7
6
5
4
Favorable
43
36
48
38
76
41
12
42
44
49
48
45
53
17
45
83
50
48
Not sure
8
16
7
9
7
14
5
8
8
Obama
49
48
42
54
11
38
93
50
47
Romney
46
46
52
41
87
50
4
44
48
Not Sure
5
6
6
4
2
12
3
6
4
%
%
Gender
Romney Favorability Unfavorable Obama vs. Romney
Ind
Education
Right direction
FLORIDA
Dem Non- Coll Coll+
31
N=600, margin of error +\- 4.0.
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%
Total April-12 Male Female GOP
Education
Right direction
Romney Favorability Unfavorable
%
N=600, margin of error +\- 4.0.
N=600, margin of error +\- 4.0.
Direction of the Country
VIRGINIA
Dem Non- Coll Coll+
Right direction
Romney Favorability Unfavorable Obama vs. Romney
Ind
Education
Party
Total April-12 Male Female GOP
Direction of the Country
Obama Job
Dem Non- Coll Coll+
Right direction
36
-
39
34
9
28
67
35
38
Wrong track
56
-
54
58
86
63
23
56
57
Not sure
8
-
7
9
5
9
10
10
6
Approve
45
46
44
45
11
35
84
44
46
Disapprove
50
50
51
50
84
60
11
51
50
Not sure
5
4
5
5
5
5
4
5
4
Favorable
43
45
48
38
71
48
12
42
43
47
44
44
48
20
39
77
44
49
Not sure
11
12
8
13
9
13
11
13
8
Obama
45
45
44
46
13
34
82
44
45
Romney
49
47
51
48
83
54
13
49
50
Not Sure
6
7
6
7
4
12
5
8
4
Romney Favorability Unfavorable Obama vs. Romney
Ind
Education
N=600, margin of error +\- 4.0.
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PURPLE JUNE 2012 MAIN QUESTIONNAIRE
For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [
[email protected]] at 703-548-7877.
PURPLEPOLL June 2012
The Wild West: Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico The Heartland: Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin The Rust Belt: New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania The Southern Swing: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia
June 2012 Main Questionnaire 1. Are things in this country generally going in the right direction or are they pretty seriously off on the wrong track?
8. Knows what it takes to create jobs.
1) Right Direction
9. I have serious concerns about what he would do to the country over the next four years.
2) Wrong Track
10. Will change the way Washington does business.
3) Not sure 2. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?
11. Which of the following comes closer to your view?
1) Approve
1) Private investment and equity firms help the American economy grow. They launch new companies and rebuild existing ones, including some of the biggest employers in America. Their work has created millions of jobs, and will help drive America’s recovery.
2) Disapprove 3) Not sure
2) Unfavorable
2) Private investment and equity firms care only about profits and short-term gains for investors. When they come in, workers get laid off, benefits disappear, and pensions are cut. Investors walk off with big returns, and working folks get stuck holding the bag.
3) Not sure
3) Not sure
4. If the 2012 presidential election were held today and the candidates were: Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote?
12. All in all, do you feel we are experiencing the kind of tough times the country faces from time to time, or is this the start of a longer-term decline where the US is no longer the leading country in the world?
3. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of Mitt Romney? 1) Favorable
1) Barack Obama
1) Tough Times
2) Mitt Romney
2) Long Term Decline
3) Not sure
3) Not sure
You will now hear a series of phrases. For each one, if the phrase better describes Barack Obama, press 1 and if the phrase better describes Mitt Romney, press 2. If you are not sure, press 3.
13. Which of the following comes closer to your view?
5. Has new ideas to lead us into the future.
1) I’m looking forward to hearing more from the candidates over the next five months as I prepare to make my choice for President.
6. A typical politician. 7. Cares more about the middle class.
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PURPLEPOLL
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2) We’d be better off if both presidential candidates stopped campaigning until Labor Day, and shorten the campaign to the two months after that. That would be more than enough time. 3) Not sure
11
PURPLE DESCRIPTOR TRACKING RESULTS
For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [
[email protected]] at 703-548-7877.
PURPLEPOLL June 2012
OVERALL
ADV.*
Barack Obama
Mitt Romney
INDEPENDENTS
ADV.*
0
0
42
40
2
Has new ideas to lead us into the future
8
34
42
41
41
0
A typical politician (June ‘12)
1
41
40
42
41
1
A typical politician (April ‘12)
4
43
39
49
36
13
Cares more about the middle class
10
46
36
42
43
1
Knows what it takes to create jobs
12
33
45
48
44
4
I have serious concerns about what he would do to the country over the next four years (June ‘12)
8
48
40
48
43
5
I have serious concerns about what he would do to the country over the next four years (April ‘12)
11
48
37
32
38
6
Will change the way Washington does business
13
24
37
*slight differences due to rounding
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PURPLEPOLL
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12