Jun 30, 2017 - elected to raise the target fed funds rate 25bps at its .... Staples (S&P 500 Sectors/Consumer Staple
Q2 2017 Market ChartBook Baird Private Wealth Management
June 30, 2017 Wealth Management | Capital Markets – Investment Banking | Private Equity | Asset Management Charlotte
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Table of Contents
03
19
26
35
Economy & Market
Domestic Equity
International Equity
Fixed Income
Market Highlights The Markets at a Glance Returns by Asset Class S&P 500 Index Economic Growth Inflation Watch Jobs Market Housing Market Consumer Health Corporate Profitability Market Volatility Commodity Markets Energy Markets Mutual Fund and ETF Flows Fund Flow Heat Map
U.S Equity Snapshot Asset Class Performance U.S. Sector Performance Investment Style Leadership Historical Market Valuations Historical Sector Valuations Mutual Fund Performance
Global Market Performance Intl. Equity Performance Country Performance Sector Performance Investment Style Leadership Global Market Valuations Country Valuations Ranges
Bond Market Snapshot Maturity/Credit Performance Yield and Volatility U.S. Treasury Bonds Corporate Bond Yields Bonds Spreads Mutual Fund Performance
Economy and Markets Q2 2017 Market ChartBook
Q2 2017 Market Highlights Economy and Market
Domestic Equity
Fixed Income
At A Glance: The first half of the year has come to an end and many market events have transpired thus far. Nervousness regarding the future of the EU has faded, the Federal Reserve has continued their hawkish monetary policy with consecutive hikes in March and June and the US economy continued to muddle along with final revisions for Q1 GDP coming in at 1.4%, down from Q4’s 2.1%. US policy-making efforts remain in gridlock causing market skeptics to reduce future growth and inflation expectations. As economic data relies heavily on the ability of the Trump administration to push forward with tax reform, debt negotiations and infrastructure spending, the upbeat economic outlook may be challenged this fall.
At a Glance: The S&P 500 generated a solid 3.1% return during the quarter. Strong Q1 earnings growth and continued optimism among equity investors has led to attractive returns.
At a Glance: In the US, investors have started to question the path of Fed rate hikes given the weaker than expected inflation data and economic growth, leading 10 year rates to fall to a low of 2.13% during the quarter. The 10-year Treasury yield was largely flat from 2.32% to start the quarter to 2.31% at the finish. In all, the Barclays Aggregate Bond Index produced a modest gain of 1.5%.
Economic Health: The labor market continued to tighten, adding an average of 149,000 jobs for the previous three months through May. The strong gains have helped to hold the national unemployment rate to 4.3%, a 16-year low. Jobless claims extended the trend of below 300,000, a streak the US has not seen since 1973. Inflation. Core consumer prices, which exclude the effects of food and energy, fell to 1.7% y/y through May. When including the effects of food and energy, headline inflation also fell during the quarter to 1.9% y/y. Fed Speak. In a widely anticipated move, the FOMC elected to raise the target fed funds rate 25bps at its June meeting. Chairwomen Yellen conveyed her views regarding recent slowing growth in economic activity deeming it transitory and the committee has maintained their long term economic outlook. The FOMC has also detailed a plan for balance sheet reduction with consensus believing it should begin before the end of the year.
Market Cap and Style: Large cap stocks outperformed mid and small-cap stocks while growth remained in favor relative to its value-style counterpart. Sector: Winning sectors for the quarter included healthcare (7.1%), industrials (4.7%), and financials (4.3%). Positive returns were largely supported by strong earnings and continued gridlock in Washington over healthcare reform. Losers for the quarter include energy (-6.4%) and telecom services (-7.1%).
International Equity At a Glance: Risk assets continued to rally through the second quarter, with international equity markets taking the lead relative to the US. Improving global growth, sustained global trade and structural reforms including initiatives in India, Indonesia, Argentina and Brazil have helped drive markets upward. Attractive valuations relative to US markets has caused international investors to benefit from a strong technical bid this past quarter. Investors in developed international markets received 6.1% in Q2 led by Denmark, France, and Italy while emerging markets largely followed suit with Q2 returns of 6.4%. Euroskeptics Le Pen and Wilders lost in their respective elections and much of Europe has moved away from the populist movement which took over the markets earlier this year. German elections this fall have now turned into a non-event, as Merkel is expected to comfortably come out on top.
Sector: In the taxable bond market, investors were more averse to risk and preferred high quality bonds over high yield. Investment grade corporate bonds and high yield bonds were among the strongest areas of the fixed income market returning 2.5% and 2.1% respectively. Leveraged loans and US TIPS lagged this quarter with spreads in the loan market coming to post-crisis lows and yields grinding tighter with a pickup in re-pricing. TIPS struggled this quarter as the market has grown skeptical of the reflation trade and inflation expectations falling to pre-election levels. Maturity and Credit Quality: Longer maturity bonds finished higher while shorter maturity bonds delivered small positive returns. Among credit, high quality outpaced high yield. Yield Curve: Treasury yields decreased this past quarter, leading to a flatter yield curve. This flattening, largely seen in the belly of the curve resulted in a slope of 89 basis points, measured by the 2s/10s spread. Municipal Bonds: Municipal bonds continued their momentum by posting 2.0% in Q2. The murky outlook for any significant tax reform combined with lower inflation and strong investor demand for yield has helped municipal bonds outperform taxable peers during the quarter and throughout the year.
Robert W. Baird & Co. Member SIPC.
4
Markets at a Glance As of June 30, 2017 Trailing Returns (%) Asset Class
Annual Returns (%)
Last Qtr
YTD
1-Year
3-Year
5-Year
10-Year
2016
2015
2014
Benchm ark
Large Cap Value
1.3
4.7
15.5
7.4
13.9
5.6
17.3
(3.8)
13.5
Russell 1000® Value
Large Cap Grow th
4.7
14.0
20.4
11.1
15.3
8.9
7.1
5.7
13.1
Russell 1000® Growth
Mid Cap
2.7
8.0
16.5
7.7
14.7
7.7
13.8
(2.4)
13.2
Russell Midcap®
Small Cap
2.5
5.0
24.6
7.4
13.7
6.9
21.3
(4.4)
4.9
Russell 2000®
6.1
13.8
20.3
1.2
8.7
1.0
1.0
(0.8)
(4.9)
Short-Term Taxable
0.3
0.7
0.4
1.0
1.0
2.3
1.3
0.7
0.8
BBgBarc 1-3 Yr Govt/Credit
Intermediate-Term Taxable
0.9
1.7
(0.2)
1.9
1.8
3.9
2.1
1.1
3.1
BBgBarc Intermed. Govt/Credit
Short-Term Municipal
0.3
1.2
0.5
0.8
0.9
2.1
0.2
0.8
0.7
BBgBarc 1-3 Yr Municipal
Intermediate-Term Municipal
1.9
3.9
0.2
2.8
2.8
4.7
(0.5)
3.3
6.1
BBgBarc 7 Yr Municipal
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.3
0.2
0.5
0.3
0.1
0.0
Citi 3 Month T-bills
High Yield
2.1
4.9
12.8
4.5
6.9
7.5
17.5
(4.6)
2.5
BofA/ML High Yield Master II
Real Estate
2.6
5.9
1.4
8.3
9.3
5.2
7.6
2.1
27.2
DJ US REIT
Commodities
(3.0)
(5.3)
(6.5)
(14.8)
(9.3)
(6.5)
11.8
(24.7)
(17.0)
Bloomberg Commodity
6.3
18.4
23.8
1.1
4.0
1.9
11.2
(14.9)
(2.2)
MSCI Emerging Mkts (Net)
U.S. Stocks
International Stocks Developed Markets
MSCI EAFE (Net)
Bonds
Cash Cash/Cash Equivalents Satellite
Emerging Markets
Source: Morningstar Direct; Russell, MSCI, Barclays, Citigroup, and Dow Jones benchmarks. Performance greater than one year is annualized. Performance is represented by the benchmark listed in the “representative benchmark” column. See important disclosures and definitions included with this publication. Robert W. Baird & Co. Member SIPC.
5
Returns by Asset Class As of June 30, 2017 Year-to-Date Performance of Various Asset Classes 35%
Market Cap
U.S. Sectors
Emerging Markets
International Markets
Fixed Income
29%
30%
25% 25%
25%
22%
21% 19%
20%
17%
16%
18% 16%
15% 11% 10%
10% 9% 9%
9%
8%
10% 10% 8%
9% 9%
8%
7% 6%
5%
4%
5%
5% 4% 4% 4%
3%
2% 2% 2%
1%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-11% -13%
-14%
-20%
Source: Morningstar Direct. Asset classes are represented by the following benchmarks: Large Cap (S&P 500), Mid Cap (Russell Mid Cap), Small Cap (Russell 2000), Cons. Discretionary (S&P 500 Sectors/Consumer Discretionary), Cons. Staples (S&P 500 Sectors/Consumer Staples), Energy (S&P 500 Sectors/Energy), Financials (S&P 500 Sectors/Financials), Health Care (S&P 500 Sectors/Health Care), Industrials (S&P 500 Sectors/Industrials), Info. Technology (S&P 500 Sectors/Info. Technology), Materials (S&P 500 Sectors/Materials), Telecom. (S&P 500 Sectors/Telecommunications), Utilities (S&P 500 Sectors/Utilities), Real Estate (S&P 500 Sectors/Real Estate), Australia ((MSCI Australia), Canada (MSCI Canada), France (MSCI France), Germany (MSCI Germany), Japan ((MSCI Japan), Switzerland ((MSCI Switzerland), United Kingdom (MSCI United Kingdom), United States (S&P 500), Brazil (MSCI Brazil), China (MSCI China), India (MSCI India), Korea (MSCI Korea), Mexico (MSCI Mexico), Russia (MSCI Russia), South Africa (MSCI South Africa), Taiwan (MSCI Taiwan), Agency (BBgBarc US Agency), Broad Market (BBgBarc US Agg. Bond), Corporate (BBgBarc US Corporate IG), High Yield (BBgBarc US Corporate HY), Municipal (BBgBarc Municipal), TIPS (BBgBarc US Treasury US TIPS), Treasury (BBgBarc US Treasury) Robert W. Baird & Co. Member SIPC.
6
S&P 500 Index As of June 30, 2017 Year-to-Date Performance of the S&P 500 Index 2,500
Q1: +6.1%
Q2: +3.1%
2,450
Adjusted Closing Level
2,400
2,350
2,300
2,250
2,200
2,150 Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Source: Standard and Poor’s. The S&P 500 Index, computed by the Standard & Poor's Corporation, is a well known gauge of stock market movements determined by the weighted capitalization of the 500 leading U.S. common stocks. Indices are unmanaged and it is not possible to invest directly in an index. Robert W. Baird & Co. Member SIPC.
7
Economic Growth As of March 31, 2017 US GDP Growth 10 8
6
GDP Grow th (%)
4 2 0 -2 -4
-6 -8 -10 Mar-97
Mar-99
Mar-01
Mar-03
Mar-05
Mar-07
Mar-09
Mar-11
Mar-13
Mar-15
Mar-17
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Contribution to U.S. GDP Growth
Contribution to GDP Grow th (%)
8
6
GDP is a basic measure of U.S. economic output. Alternatively, it can be thought of as the final value of all goods and services produced within the U.S. Positive GDP growth signals an expanding economy. GDP is comprised of four major categories: personal consumption, private investment, government spending and net exports.
4 2 0 -2
-4 -6
Personal Consumption Govt. Spending
-8
-10 Mar-07
Mar-08
Mar-09
Mar-10
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Private Investment Next Exports Mar-16
Mar-17
Source: US Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic Analysis (GDP Growth) Robert W. Baird & Co. Member SIPC.
8
Inflation Watch As of May 31, 2017 Historic CPI Level
Year-Over-Year Change in CPI
6 Headline CPI Core CPI 4
2
0
-2 May-07
May-08
May-09
May-10
May-11
May-12
Headline CPI
May-13
May-14
May-15
May-16
Core CPI: Headline less Food and Energy
Com ponents
Weight (%)
12-m o Change (%)
Headline CPI
100
1.9
Housing
43
Transportation
Com ponents
Weight (%)
12-m o Change (%)
Core CPI
79
1.7
3.1
Food
14
0.9
16
1.8
Energy
7
5.4
Food & Beverage
15
0.9
Medical Care
9
2.7
Education
7
(2.5)
Recreation
6
0.9
Apparel/Clothing
2
(1.2)
Other
3
2.4
May-17
Consumer Price Index (CPI) A common measure of inflation, Headline CPI tracks a broad basket of goods and services relatable to most consumers. Core CPI excludes Food and Energy due to the volatile nature of those categories and the distortive effect it can have on the broader inflation measure.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Baird Analysis. CPI figures lag one month. Robert W. Baird & Co. Member SIPC.
9
Jobs Market As of May 31, 2017 Jobs Gained/Lost
Unemployment and Underemployment Rates 18
800 600
15
Unemployment Rate (%)
Change in Payroll (000s)
400
12
200 0
9
-200 -400
8.4
6 4.3
-600
3 -800
U-3 Unem ployment Ra te U-6 Underemploym ent Rate
-1,000 May-07
May-09
May-11
May-13
May-15
0 May-07
May-17
Labor Force Participation
May-09
May-11
May-13
May-15
May-17
Wage Growth (y/o/y%)
67
4
3
65
64
63 62.7
Wage Grrowth (%)
Participation Rate (%)
66
2.6 2
62 1
61
60 May-07
May-09
May-11
May-13
May-15
May-17
0 Mar-07
Mar-08 Mar-09
Mar-10
Mar-11 Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16 Mar-17
Source: US Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Data will lag one month and is subject to revision. Wage growth is calculated quarterly and will lag one quarter. Robert W. Baird & Co. Member SIPC.
10
Housing Market As of May 31, 2017 S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Index (20 City)
Average Selling Price of New and Existing Homes Median Price (New Homes)
$37 5,0 00
240
Median Price (E xist ing) 220
$32 5,0 00
Index Level
200
$27 5,0 00
180
160
$22 5,0 00
140
$17 5,0 00 120
100 May-07
May-08
May-09
May-10
May-11
May-12
May-13
May-14
May-15
May-16
May-17
Housing Affordability Index
$12 5,0 00 May-07
220
Units (000s)
Index Level
120
80 May-07 May-08 May-09 May-10 May-11 May-12 May-13 May-14 May-15 May-16 May-17
May-12
New Housing Starts Existing Hom e S ale s
6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000
100
May-11
7,500
6,500
140
May-10
8,000
7,000
200
160
May-09
Home Starts/Sales
240
180
May-08
May-13
May-14
May-15
May-16
May-17
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
A common measure of inflation, Headline CPI tracks a broad basket of goods and services relatable to most consumers. Core CPI excludes Food and Energy due to the volatile nature of those categories and the distortive effect it can have on the broader inflation measure.
3,500 3,000 May-07 May-08 May-09 May-10 May-11 May-12 May-13 May-14 May-15 May-16 May-17
Source: Standard & Poor’s, US Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Robert W. Baird & Co. Member SIPC.
11
Consumer Health As of May 31, 2017 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey
Consumer Spending Growth (y/o/y%)
100
8
Consumer Spending Growth (%)
95 90 85
Index Level
80
75 70 65 60
6
4
2
0
-2
55 50 May-07
May-08
May-09
May-10
May-11
May-12
May-13
May-14
May-15
May-16
May-17
Personal Savings Rate
-4 May-07
May-08
May-09
May-10
May-11
May-12
May-13
Personal Income Per Capita
12
Personal Savings Rate (%)
May-15
May-16
May-17
$40 ,00 0
A common measure of inflation, Headline CPI tracks a broad basket of goods and services relatable to most consumers. Core CPI excludes Food and Energy due to the volatile nature of those categories and the distortive effect it can have on the broader inflation measure.
10 $38 ,00 0 8
6
$36 ,00 0
4 $34 ,00 0 2
0 May-07
May-14
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
May-08
May-09
May-10
May-11
May-12
May-13
May-14
May-15
May-16
May-17
$32 ,00 0 May-07
May-08
May-09 May-10
May-11
May-12
May-13
May-14 May-15 May-16
May-17
Source: Thomas Reuters/University of Michigan, US Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Robert W. Baird & Co. Member SIPC.
12
Corporate Profitability As of March 31, 2017 S&P 500 Earnings Per Share (EPS) $1,400
$14 0 Earnings Per Sh (right ax is) Revenues Per S h (left axis)
$1,200
$12 0
$1,000
$10 0
$80 0
$80
$60 0
$60
$40 0
$40
$20 0
$20
$0 Mar-02
Mar-03
Mar-04
Mar-05
Mar-06
Mar-07
Mar-08
Mar-09
Mar-10
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16
$0 Mar-17
Corporate Profitability
Corporate Profits (% of GDP)
Corporate Profits /GDP
12%
Earnings power ultimately drives long-term changes to stock prices. These two charts display how profitable US corporations are. The top chart measures earnings (top line growth) and revenue (bottom line growth) of the companies within the S&P 500 Index. The bottom chart displays corporate profitability (after taxes) in terms of total US GDP growth.
9%
6%
3% Mar-07
Mar-09
Mar-11
Mar-13
Mar-15
Mar-17
Source: BEA, Bloomberg, Standard & Poors, Baird analysis. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Robert W. Baird & Co. Member SIPC.
13
Market Volatility As of June 30, 2017 Historic VIX Level 90 80 70
VIX Level
60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Jun-07
Jun-08
Jun-09
Jun-10
Jun-11
Jun-12
Jun-13
Jun-14
Jun-15
Jun-16
Jun-17
VIX (CBOE Volatility Index)
Quarterly S&P 500 Trading Volatility 80% % of days up/down 2% or more
Percent of Trading Days
% of days up/down 1-2% 60%
The VIX measures the implied volatility of S&P 500 future options. Simply put, it measures the expected volatility of the S&P 500 Index over the next 30 days. The higher the index, the higher the expected volatility. It is also commonly referred to as the “fear index.”
40%
20%
0% Q2 201 7
Q1 201 7
Q4 201 6
Q3 201 6
Q2 201 6
Q1 201 6
Q4 201 5
Q3 201 5
Q2 201 5
Q1 201 5
Q4 201 4
Q3 201 4
Q2 201 4
Q1 201 4
Q4 201 3
Q3 201 3
Q2 201 3
Q1 201 3
Q4 201 2
Q3 201 2
Q2 201 2
Q1 201 2
Q4 201 1
Q3 201 1
Q2 201 1
Q1 201 1
Q4 201 0
Q3 201 0
Q2 201 0
Q1 201 0
Q4 200 9
Q3 200 9
Q2 200 9
Q1 200 9
Q4 200 8
Q3 200 8
Q2 200 8
Q1 200 8
Q4 200 7
Q3 200 7
Q2 200 7
Source: Standard & Poor’s; CBOE; Baird Analysis. Robert W. Baird & Co. Member SIPC.
14
Commodity Markets As of June 30, 2017 Year-to-Date Returns of Various Commodity Types (%) 18.3
20 12.3
15 10
6.3
11.4
7.0
6.3
7.4 3.1
5
2.4
0 -5 -10
-3.4
-5.3
-7.3
-15 -20 -20.0
-25
-18.5 -21.2 -24.8
-30
Oil Prices
Gold Prices
$16 0
$2,000
London PM Gold ($/oz)
$14 0
WTI Oil Price ($/b)
$12 0 $10 0 $80
$60 $40
$1,500
$1,242
$1,000
$50 0
$46.04 $20 $0 Jun-07
Jun-08
Jun-09
Jun-10
Jun-11
Jun-12
Jun-13
Jun-14
Jun-15
Jun-16
Jun-17
$0 Jun-07
Jun-08
Jun-09
Jun-10
Jun-11
Jun-12
Jun-13
Jun-14
Jun-15
Jun-16
Jun-17
Source: U.S. Dept of Energy; London PM Gold Fix Index; Baird Analysis. “Broad Market” is represented by the Bloomberg Commodity Index, specific commodity types are reported segments of that index. See important disclosures and definitions included with this publication. Robert W. Baird & Co. Member SIPC.
15
Energy Markets As of June 30, 2017 Oil Prices (West Texas Intermediate)
Natural Gas Prices (Henry Hub) $16
$16 0
$12 $10
$10 0 $80
$60 $40 $46.04 $20
$3.04
$4
Jun-11
Jun-12
Jun-13
Jun-14
Jun-15
Jun-16
Jun-17
Tot al Oil Production
2,500
Jun-09
Jun-10
Jun-11
Jun-12
Jun-13
Jun-14
Jun-15
Jun-16
Jun-17
100
Global Over/Under Supply
4
Global Oil Supply
2,000 8,500
6,500
Jun-08
Global Oil Supply and Demand (LH) and Supply Imbalance (RH)
Tot al Active Rig Count
7,500
$0 Jun-07
1,500
1,000
5,500 500 4,500
3,500 0 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Global Oil De mand
3
95 2
90
1 0
85
-1 -2
80 -3
Supply / Demand Imbalances (MMbb/d)
Jun-10
Oversupply
Jun-09
Undersupply
Jun-08
Baker Hughes Oil & Gas Rig Count
Total U.S. Oil Production (mmbb/d)
9,500
$6
$2
Total U.S. Oil Production (LH) and Rig Count Index (RH) 10,500
$8
Global Oil Supply and Demand (MMbb/d)
WTI Oil Price ($/b)
$12 0
$0 Jun-07
Henry Hub Natural Gas Price ($/mmbtu)
$14
$14 0
75 -4 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration; Bloomberg; Baird Analysis. Robert W. Baird & Co. Member SIPC.
16
Mutual Fund and ETF Flows As of May 31, 2017 Annual Mutual Fund and ETF Flows ($ millions)
Calendar Year Net Flow s ($M) 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
YTD
Money Market
340,833
613,001
(60,745)
23,827
40,622
24,080
52,648
84,147
(71,307)
Municipal Bond
14,353
12,758
75,969
16,043
(8,574)
54,251
(56,361)
32,748
21,822
33,533
14,625
Taxable Bond
112,649
61,001
333,826
246,664
190,178
329,181
34,920
110,193
29,820
199,509
170,426
Allocation
45,974
(21,999)
6,453
18,527
19,307
29,553
61,961
51,267
(20,669)
(51,899)
(7,333)
US Equity
37,163
709
(33,563)
(21,054)
(45,395)
(41,163)
175,444
127,309
(60,053)
(8,997)
41,516
International Equity
174,946
(41,542)
63,246
91,729
19,051
61,056
200,740
153,487
209,444
12,420
105,713
Alternative
11,561
19,820
28,434
24,006
23,172
17,902
49,512
20,076
20,516
(296)
2,387
Com m odities
6,542
12,370
36,636
24,972
8,171
11,928
(32,890)
(3,317)
(1,526)
14,456
1,742
(290,490) (431,604)
Annual Fund Flows Biggest % Gainers/Losers by Asset Class Top 10 In-Flow s (as a % of assets)
Trailing 1-Year Grow th Rate
Top 10 Out-Flow s (as a % of assets)
Trailing 1-Year Grow th Rate
Industrials
51.4%
Prime Money Market
-53.6%
Money Market - Taxable
49.8%
Money Market - Tax-Free
-23.4%
Bank Loan
34.4%
Utilities
-13.4%
Financial
33.6%
Consumer Cyclical
-10.9%
Ultrashort Bond
31.9%
Europe Stock
-10.4%
Emerging Markets Bond
26.0%
Long Government
-10.0%
Equity Precious Metals
21.7%
Japan Stock
-9.6%
Preferred Stock
21.5%
Allocation--85%+ Equity
-9.5%
Inflation-Protected Bond
18.7%
World Allocation
-8.9%
Energy Limited Partnership
18.0%
Health
-8.6%
The examination of annual mutual fund and ETF flows shows the investment pattern of the average investor by broad asset class. For example, in 2008 investors exited stocks when the markets fell. In 2009, large amounts of capital went to fixed income, but little flowed back to stocks.
Source: Morningstar Direct; Baird Analysis. Asset classes with less than $25 billion invested were excluded from the analysis. Robert W. Baird & Co. Member SIPC.
17
Fund Flow Heat Map As of May 31, 2017 Mutual Fund and ETF Net Flow (YoY % Grow th) Asset Class
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
YTD
US Equity Large Cap Grow th
-1.0%
0.0%
-1.2%
-2.3%
-4.2%
-3.1%
-3.9%
-1.6%
-1.8%
-8.2%
Large Cap Blend
1.2%
2.6%
4.9%
-0.9%
-0.3%
0.7%
1.8%
6.5%
6.9%
0.6%
2.2%
Large Cap Value
3.9%
-0.3%
-2.9%
-5.2%
-0.1%
0.0%
0.5%
5.4%
2.8%
-1.8%
-0.2%
Mid Cap Grow th
0.4%
5.7%
-5.6%
-0.5%
0.5%
-4.8%
-4.3%
2.2%
-3.6%
-9.3%
-1.1%
Mid Cap Blend
4.3%
2.1%
-3.7%
4.9%
3.6%
-1.4%
2.5%
15.0%
6.2%
-0.1%
2.9%
Mid Cap Value
1.8%
1.2%
-4.9%
-1.4%
0.8%
-1.0%
-4.8%
8.6%
0.5%
-6.2%
-1.7%
Small Cap Grow th
-1.7%
-1.4%
-2.0%
-2.1%
4.4%
0.0%
-1.0%
-3.8%
4.4%
-7.4%
-7.1%
-1.1%
Small Cap Blend
8.6%
-2.8%
1.9%
4.6%
3.4%
-3.6%
-3.0%
10.0%
2.1%
0.0%
1.3%
Small Cap Value
6.2%
-2.3%
7.2%
4.2%
7.6%
-3.4%
-4.6%
4.4%
-0.5%
1.1%
1.0%
International Equity Internationl Grow th
16.3%
9.3%
-2.9%
3.3%
0.3%
-2.7%
-2.1%
4.4%
-0.7%
-2.1%
0.5%
International Blend
24.7%
19.9%
0.4%
6.9%
10.5%
5.2%
4.1%
17.8%
15.3%
6.4%
6.5%
International Value
11.8%
10.0%
-7.0%
-5.2%
4.4%
5.6%
7.5%
10.2%
9.5%
-1.5%
1.7%
Emerging Markets
18.1%
19.5%
3.6%
32.6%
27.5%
7.4%
19.2%
9.4%
3.5%
-0.3%
6.5%
Global Equity
12.3%
8.8%
-4.8%
-5.3%
-4.2%
-5.4%
-6.2%
5.2%
2.5%
-5.0%
-0.5%
3.9%
Fixed Incom e Short-Term Bond
-4.9%
2.4%
0.3%
70.3%
28.7%
7.8%
19.2%
12.5%
6.5%
2.0%
Intermediate-Term Bond
11.6%
16.1%
2.3%
26.7%
9.8%
5.2%
12.8%
-7.5%
4.8%
8.9%
4.6%
3.3%
2.7%
3.5%
28.3%
11.3%
12.0%
15.7%
2.0%
-5.4%
3.6%
-2.9%
Bank Loan
29.5%
-7.9%
-26.9%
38.3%
78.0%
32.6%
24.0%
93.4%
-14.3%
5.9%
14.7%
TIPS
-3.1%
6.7%
39.0%
55.5%
10.9%
11.6%
6.1%
-23.9%
-2.2%
6.9%
8.0%
Short-Term Muni
-5.6%
4.6%
27.4%
105.5%
10.2%
4.0%
11.7%
2.2%
7.4%
1.9%
2.3%
7.4%
8.8%
9.7%
22.9%
7.1%
2.0%
14.4%
-9.5%
13.4%
8.7%
3.2%
25.5%
1.3%
-5.7%
27.6%
5.0%
-1.5%
22.6%
-15.0%
17.1%
5.2%
6.2%
3% to 5%
3% to 0%
High Yield Bond
Intermediate-Term Muni High Yield Muni
>10%
5% to 10%
0% to -3%
-3% to -5%
-5% to -10%
