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Nov 1, 2016 - against the locals - just have to line it up against the other raiders yet to be sighted. On his UK form h
Flemington Tuesday 1st November 2016 (3:00pm) 7 - Emirates Melbourne Cup (3200m) Race Analysis Unique edition of the Melbourne Cup. The local form this year looks the weakest I have seen and it can be a year for the Internationals to dominate. Bondi Beach looks the Lloyd Williams project horse - kept ticking over at shorter distance in readiness for this race - Ryan Moore takes the ride and he should run very well. Wicklow Brave beat Order of St George in the Irish St Leger last time out - that was only a field of four though - different conditions here but strong form. Heartbreak City draws poorly - brings strong enough recent form to run a very bold race - has a nice turn of foot and trip no query. Curren Mirotic is a very dour stayer - he probably needs a genuine test to be in the finish - 9yo but this is not a strong event. Jameka and Hartnell going well - this is a new level of pain for both - have to risk them at 3200m. Oceanographer either franks the form of other better performed Euros or he is just thriving here? PACE: Strong. SELECTIONS: 4/8-13/3-1-21-23-17-20 #

Name

Trainer

Jockey

Bar

Bet

Lay

Notes

1

Big Orange

Michael Bell

J P Spencer

7

16.00

Fairly lightly raced on pacer with a good winning record. He set the slow tempo in this race last year and battled on to run 5th. Has since run 2nd in a Dubai Gold Cup and has won Group 2 staying events comfortably at his last two starts including a Goodwood Cup victory last start over this trip. He is drawn ideally to get on pace early and should run a bold race. Think he may lack the turn of foot to win - but will stick on and is a certain contender for all exotics.

2

Our Ivanhowe

Lee & Anthony Freedman

D Dunn

6

81.00

Has been in Australia for a couple of seasons now - one of the few that saw almost every chance in the race last year and was a touch weak late. Solid enough this preparation without ever looking a winning hope. Has feet issues and think he also struggles at the trip. Prefer to risk him unless the rain arrives.

Osamu Hirata

Tommy Berry

12.00

Japanese 9yo that creates a bit of interest. He ran second in the Tenno Sho earlier this year at big odds - every possible chance there - still a great form reference for this. Reportedly travelled very well. He will run the 3200m right out and the harder they go the better. His last two runs look a little average over shorter - he looks in need of this extra trip to show his best. Definite player.

3

Curren Mirotic

18

4

Bondi Beach

A O'Brien

Ryan Moore

5

6.50

This horse ran in the Cup last year at just his 6th start in a race. No luck there and a good educational experience. Given two kills in easier grade/small fields following that run. Carried big weights in two most recent runs over shorter and thought he was given a pretty quiet time of things. Looks set for this race - Ryan Moore is the best in the business and he should go very close this time around. The one to beat.

5

Exospheric

Lee & Anthony Freedman

D Oliver

13

41.00

Lightly raced and solid UK form before coming to Australia and joining the Freedman camp. He had a nice run in transit and got to the line OK in the Caulfield Cup fresh. Better for the run. Hard to see him improving enough to be winning. Place chance at best.

J A O'Shea

J B Mc Donald

31.00

Put three strong weight for age wins together following the first up defeat behind Winx. Dominated by Winx again in the Cox Plate but did hold the rest at bay. He is a winner over the two mile in his former life in the UK. They will attempt to ride him quiet here in order to get the trip. Huge query for mine at the distance - he is travelling far too keenly and at the odds just have to be against him.

6

Hartnell

12

7

Who Shot Thebarman

C J Waller

J Bowman

20

67.00

Experienced galloper from the Waller yard that looked to be going well early in his preparation very disappointing in the Metropolitan before bouncing back with a solid second in the Moonee Valley Cup. Has a solid enough record at this trip. Concerned he was a touch weak late at the Valley and think this is a huge step up from that race. Risk.

8

Wicklow Brave

W P Mullins

L Dettori

24

7.50

Conquered Order of St George in the G1 Irish St Leger last time in a small field. They gapped Trip To Paris there who has run well in this race previously. Order of St George would be an unbackable favourite if he was lining up here and he beat him at set weights. Wide draw should only get us better odds. Can certainly win.

9

Almoonqith

D & B Hayes & T Dabernig

M J Walker

19

31.00

Probably the "Cup trial" of the race in the Caulfield Cup - really made good ground late and should have run a place. That is either a good thing for this horse - or a warning against the strength of that form. He runs the trip and is one of the better hopes of the locally trained runners. Place hope for exotic players.

10

Gallante

Robert Hickmott

B Shinn

2

101.00

Won a very soft Sydney cup in the Autumn leading throughout. He has obviously had his share of issues. Looks like he is one that needs significant rain in order to he a hope of any kind. Needs to turn his form around too significantly. Risk.

67.00

Waller runner with a very similar profile to his stablemate Who Shot Thebarman. He improved nicely to take out a weak Moonee Valley Cup last start at odds. He is proven at the trip and handles all going. He cant win this - but will stick on if they run it hard and is a place hope for exotic players.

11

Grand Marshal

C J Waller

B Melham

9

12

Jameka

C Maher

Nicholas Hall

3

21.00

Caulfield Cup winner in career best form. She went a touch keenly there and simply superior to a moderate field. Huge query on her over the 3200m. Inside gate might help Hall to put her to sleep and expose her as late as possible. If everything goes her way and she runs the trip (Big ifs) - then maybe she can feature. Have to risk at the odds. Maybe in for the lower placings in mulitples just in case.

13

Heartbreak City

A D Martin

J Moreira

23

13.00

Has had the right run at his two latest runs and burst through the line late. Very hard to line that form up and over two months since he has been seen at the races. Draws awkwardly but stays well and with any luck in running should be strong late here. Can win.

14

Sir John Hawkwood

John Thompson

B Spriggs

14

201.00

Thought he was very dominant in The Metrop and expected more from him in the Caulfield Cup even though he was hampered somewhat. Not proven at the trip and looks an extreme query for mine. Looking elsewhere. Risk

15

Excess Knowledge

G Waterhouse & A Bott

V Duric

21

201.00

Looked to be building into his preparation well until the Moonee Valley Cup run when a bit weak late. Wide gate makes his job even harder. Certainly can improve back to Flemington but really needs to. Entitled to be big odds here.

16

Beautiful Romance

Saeed Bin Suroor

Damian Lane

1

101.00

Hard to line this mare up. Last three runs all look average performances for this race. Not proven in this distance range and does look like she needs to lift significantly. Prefer to risk this one.

17

Almandin

Robert Hickmott

K Mc Evoy

17

26.00

Williams runner that has had a more traditional local lead up. Hit his straps his last two starts strong late on each occasion. In his former life he has winning form over Protectionist. In form Kerryn McEvoy to ride. Looks the best hope of the locals. Goes in all exotics.

18

Assign

Robert Hickmott

Katelyn Mallyon

22

81.00

Another Williams owned runner that has similar form to his stablemate Almandin. Just worried he doesnt have the depth or upside to go to the next level that Almandin may have. Will work hard early from the gate and imagine he will be found wanting late. Risk.

19

Grey Lion

Matthew Cumani

G Boss

16

41.00

Sat outside the leader in the Geelong Cup and fought hard to the line. That form is lining up OK against the locals - just have to line it up against the other raiders yet to be sighted. On his UK form he is a genuine roughie. Prefer to risk this one at the added trip.

20

Oceanographer

Charlie Appleby

C Schofield

11

21.00

The eye catcher of the Geelong Cup - grinding right to the line. Thought he was set a massive task in the Lexus and ran down the tear away leader late. Extra trip looks to his liking. He is another that would have been regarded as a genuine roughie before his latest two efforts. Obviously going well but the market has over reacted to his chances I believe. Place hope for multis.

21

Secret Number

Saeed Bin Suroor

S Baster

10

18.00

Could be the query runner of the race. Came out here last year and a bit unlucky not to beat Caulfield Cup runner up Dandino. Only seen once since that effort when a dominant winner over much shorter. That looked a good pipe opener before quarantine. He is certainly one runner that looks to have the ability - race fitness is the query. Can entertain him at big odds.

22

Pentathlon

J R Wheeler

M R Du Plessis

4

201.00

Kiwi runner that is going OK at present. He ran on OK in the Moonee Valley Cup before average in the Lexus. Extremely surprised to see him pop up here. Risk.

23

Qewy

Charlie Appleby

Craig Williams

15

21.00

Led all the way in good style in the Geelong Cup. That was short of the distances he likes. I find it amazing that he is longer than his stablemate Oceanographer in the betting. He will roll forward and battle on. Each way hope. Prefer the place.

24

Rose Of Virginia

Lee & Shannon Hope

Ben Thompson

BACK MARKERS

8

501.00

MIDFIELDERS

Nothing to cay this preparation that she will measure up. Runner up in the Auckland Cup over the trip earlier in the year at big odds. Highly doubt a repeat of those heroics here. Risk her.

ON PACERS

LEADERS

Rail Runners Two Wide Three Wide

Runner

Stand Out

Suited by Tempo

Suggested Betting Best Win Options: Bondi Beach ($11 - Unitbet) - Wicklow Brave ($21 - Sportsbet) Best Value Options: Heartbreak City ($17), Curren Mirotic ($35), Secret Number ($41) Trifecta (Aggressive): 4-8/1-3-4-8-13-21-23/1-3-4-8-13-17-20-21-23 Trifecta (Wide): 4-8-13-21-23/1-3-4-8-13-21-23/1-3-4-8-13-17-20-21-23

Lay