broad range of policy areas, such as energy policy, foreign and security policy, ..... the further development of transp
Austria is net importer of energy. This is particularly true for the transport sector, which largely depends on fossil fuels. The political instability of exporting countries is a reason for concern with respect to energy security. As Austria produces a high share of its electrical power by hydrodynamic power, a reasonable solution for the substitution of fossil fuels is e-mobility, combined with a set of other measures. This report was prepared as case study for the European Liberal Forum ELF and is part of a larger project coordinated by FORES Sweden.
EUROPE’S ENERGY FUTURE – A SECURE AND LOW EMISSION TRANSPORT SECTOR Secure energy supply for sustainable transport - The Austrian Case
Ronald J. Pohoryles & Dorothea Tommasi
Case study Austria by Ronald J. Pohoryles & Dorothea Tommasi
Table of Content Introduction: The Concept of Energy Security and the Transport sector – the Austrian Case .............. 1 Presentation of the current fuel use in the transport sector ............................................................... 2 General Overview .......................................................................................................................... 2 Freight Transport ........................................................................................................................... 6 Environmental Impacts .................................................................................................................. 8 Political targets in the transport sector .............................................................................................. 9 National and Transnational Transport ...........................................................................................10 Modern infrastructure for transport ..........................................................................................10 Public transport.........................................................................................................................10 Intelligent transport systems .....................................................................................................11 Technology & Innovation ..........................................................................................................11 Environment and energy efficiency ...........................................................................................11 Urban Transport ...........................................................................................................................11 Current and future transport and fuel policies ..................................................................................12 Policy measures ............................................................................................................................12 Increase of the share of clean energy sources ...........................................................................13 Enhancement of Energy Efficiency (Road)..................................................................................13 Modal shift to environmentally friendly transport modes ..........................................................13 Energy Consumption of the Transport Sector ................................................................................15 Environmental Impacts .................................................................................................................17 Research and Innovation: Increasing the energy efficiency in the the transport sector ..................18 Top 3 (and ½) Challenges for the Transport Sector ............................................................................20 1 - Increase of energy efficiency ....................................................................................................20 Strengths ..................................................................................................................................21 Weaknesses ..............................................................................................................................21 Opportunities ............................................................................................................................21 Threats......................................................................................................................................21 2 – Substitution of fossil fuels by alternative fuels .........................................................................22
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Strengths ..................................................................................................................................22 Weaknesses ..............................................................................................................................22 Opportunities ............................................................................................................................23 Threats......................................................................................................................................23 3 - User attitudes and behaviour ...................................................................................................24 Strengths ..................................................................................................................................24 Weaknesses ..............................................................................................................................24 Opportunities ............................................................................................................................25 Threats......................................................................................................................................25 A note on innovation and research: Increasing energy efficiency and substitution of oil ................25 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................27 References........................................................................................................................................30 Annex: Tables ...................................................................................................................................33 Transport and Fuel Policies ...........................................................................................................35 Research and Innovation ...............................................................................................................40
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List of Diagrammes Diagramme 1: Energetic Enduse by Sector 2015 (provisional data)..................................................... 3 Diagramme 2: Fossil Fuels by Sector (provisional data) ...................................................................... 3 Diagramme 3: Energetic Enduse by Source (provisional data) ............................................................ 4 Diagramme 4: Energy Imports by Source (provisional data)................................................................ 4 Diagramme 5: Net Import Tangent 2014 and 2015 Source: (provisional data) .................................... 5 Diagramme 6: Oil Imports 2012 - 2013 ............................................................................................... 6 Diagramme 7: Freight transport by mode 2015 (in million tons) ........................................................ 6 Diagramme 8: Increase or Decrease by Transport Mode 2013 – 2015 (in million tons) ....................... 7 Diagramme 9: GHG emissions caused by transport in kt CO2 .............................................................. 8 Diagramme 10: Energy Consumption 2015 in TJ ................................................................................. 9 Diagramme 11: Schematic Overview on policy goals and policy measures based on the report of the Austrian Environment Agency ...........................................................................................................14 Diagramme 12: Total Energy Consumption Transport 2015 – 2035 in TJ ............................................15 Diagramme 13: Total Energy Consumption Transport 2015 – 2035 in TJ ...........................................16 Diagramme 14: Potential Energy Savings by Sources 2015 -2035 ......................................................16 Diagramme 15: Pollutant emissions in 2013 and projections 2015-2035 under different transport and energy policy scenarios (in kt CO2 eq) ..............................................................................................17 Diagramme 16: The potential of pollutant emission reductions with additional policy measures 2015 2035 .................................................................................................................................................18 Diagramme 17: Comparison of policy impact expectations ...............................................................19 Diagramme 18: Expected Impacts by Sector ......................................................................................19 Diagramme 19: Expected Outcomes of the Research: Comparison of Austria and the EU ..................20 Diagramme 20: Energy Sources of Austrian Passenger Cars...............................................................25 Diagramme 21: Participation in national and EU Transport Research Programmes by Institution ...26 Diagramme 22: Intention to participate in H2020 by Experience .......................................................26
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INTRODUCTION: THE CONCEPT OF ENERGY SECURITY AND THE TRANSPORT SECTOR – THE AUSTRIAN CASE On the European agenda, energy security is one of the major topics. Only to a certain extent Europe can meet the demand of the economy and its citizens on its own resources. Lacking enough energy resources Europe, the sufficient supply of energy to economy and society depends on imports, and this quite often from regions, which are characterized by a rich wealth of raw materials, but are quite unstable, do not comply with European values and not even with European sustainability criteria, or pose environmental risks for instance in maritime zones. Energy security is mostly understood as the security of supply. In order to ensure a sufficient supply of energy the EU and its Member States support research and development for the increase of efficiency in production and in consumption of energy, for the development and for the increased use of renewable energy, etc. Even in a narrow definition of energy security that limits energy security to the stable and sufficient supply – with respect to transport mostly supply of oil – the assessment of “security” is quite complex: As Winzer notes, security is related to risks. The definition of risks is in turn related to the assessment of the security of supply. The consideration of different types of risks defines the risk assessment and accordingly vary to a great extent (Winzer 2012). When it comes to the operationalization of the various concepts of energy security Winzer starts by defining the risk factors. He distinguishes between technical risk sources (for instance infrastructure failures and technology gaps), human risk sources (including political risks, underinvestment, terrorism) and natural risk sources (depletion of fossil fuel stocks and natural disasters). By using empirical measures in three national case studies, Winzer argues in his analysis that as they look at different risk sources the different concepts lead to three different threat scenarios. With the inclusion of efficiency criteria and sustainability issues “the concept of energy security becomes flue and a mere umbrella term for many different policy goals” (Winzer 2012, 36). Despite admitting the complexity of the issue he opts for sole reason of research strategy for a concept that limits “the definition of energy security as the continuity of energy supplies relative to demand”. Johansson grosso modo follows the definition of risks as proposed by Winzer, but disagrees with Winzer’s proposal to narrow the concept of energy security down to merely the supply and demand issue (Johansson 2013). Rather, he offers a broader typology of energy security by looking at the interconnection between energy systems, both as object and subject, and the risks that threaten energy security. The energy system as the “object exposed to security threats” he understands the supply and consumption of energy. Energy systems as the “subject in generating or enhancing insecurity” are related to the impacts of energy production and consumption on the climate change, or on safety. Energy production and energy consumption can produce risks to environment and society. Johansson underlines “the fact that energy and security can be viewed from several different perspectives. One main dividing line lies between security issues, where the energy system is an object of security threats, and where it is a subject that generates or enhances insecurity. (…) Policy initiatives that will have an impact on the relationship between energy and security can be found in a broad range of policy areas, such as energy policy, foreign and security policy, civil protection policy, environmental and climate policy” (Johansson 2013: 203). As an example for the environmental risks
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one could refer to the ongoing debate on land use and environmental degradation caused by the production of biofuels (Vadrot and Pohoryles 2010). As an example for the risks of societal conflicts the most obvious case is the debate on nuclear energy (Roßegger and Ramin 2013). For Austria it should be mentioned that nuclear energy is banned since the late 1970s and no nuclear power plant operates in Austria. As Johansson notes, his typology “could be a valuable tool for ensuring that all security aspects have been considered” (Johansson 2013, 199). It has two major advantages: it is analytically sound as it looks at the various inter-relations between energy supply and energy production and consumption, and hence includes the policy framework, the supply of producers as well as the user attitudes and user behaviour. From the pragmatic side it has to be noted that the political decision-takers and the people at large have the same understanding, hence the findings gained by such an approach can be used for policy advice as well. As I argued in other context the mission of the social sciences is to meet the needs of society, and this calls for an approach that meets the public understanding (Pohoryles and Schadauer 2009). This is the reason why this case study will use the wider definition as analytical framework. As the Austrian case shows, policy development in the transport and energy field needs a comprehensive approach. The issue of energy security is quite complex, and expert interviews, policy documents and legislation prove that the decision makers are aware of this fact.
PRESENTATION OF THE CURRENT FUEL USE IN THE TRANSPORT SECTOR General Overview With respect to the energy production Austria is quite favourable position: This is, at least in part, due to the availability of hydrodynamic power (Pohoryles 2014b; Engström Stenson 2015). However, is a net importer of energy, which is particularly true for the transport sector. As in all EU Member States, the transport sector is the major energy user. Growing steadily since 1970 the share of the transport sector in energy consumption remained stable since 2005 and amounts to one third of the total consumption.
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Energetic Enduse by Sector 2015 (Total Use = 1'090.2 Petajoule)
24%
2% 29%
Industry Transport
11%
Services
34%
Private Households Agriculture
Diagramme 1: Energetic Enduse by Sector Source: Federal Ministry of Science, Research and Economy, 2015 (provisional data)
The transport sector is mostly depending on fossil fuels. Although Austria has a small domestic production of oil it can by far not meet the demand. E-mobility, which could reduce the import dependency from energy imports due to the production of electrical power by hydrodynamic power, has not yet reached a relevant market share. Hence, the transport sector consumes three quarter of the consumption of oil, whereas the private households consume 12.2% and the industry consumes only 6.5%.
Final Energy Consumption of Fossil Fuels by Sector 2015 (Total 1'090.2 PJ) 12% 1%
6% 2%
Industry Transport Services
79%
Private Households Agriculture
Diagramme 2: Fossil Fuels by Sector Source: Federal Ministry of Science, Research and Economy, 2016 (provisional data)
The high share of oil in the energy consumption is mostly due to the transport sector, passenger transport and cargo as well. Nearly half of the energy consumption are fossil fuels as compared to only 9% of electrical energy and 3% of renewables.
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Final Energetic Consumption by Source 2015 (Total: 1'246,8 PJ) 9% 9%
3%
Coal Oil
32%
Gas
47%
Renewables Electrical Energy
Diagramme 3: Energetic End-use by Source Source: Federal Ministry of Science, Research and Economy, 2016 (provisional data)
Austria is heavily relying on energy import. In 2015, 38% of the energy import in Austria is oil, followed by combustible waste, renewables and gas. This shows that only an integrated transport and energy concept comprising increase of efficiency, use of renewables, and technology development, especially with respect to e-mobility can at the same time increase sustainability and energy security. Furthermore, behavioural changes are relevant as well: the shift from individual transport to the public transport could play an important role to reach the policy targets of the reduction of energy consumption.
Energy Imports by Source 2015 (Total: 1'090.2 PJ) Coal
20% 2%
Oil
38%
7% 1% 16%
Gas Renewables
16%
Combustible waste District Heat Electrical Energy
Diagramme 4: Energy Imports by Source Source: Federal Ministry of Science, Research and Economy, 2016 (provisional data)
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Relevant to the issue of energy security is the Net Import Tangent. The indicator Net Import Tangent measures imports minus exports in percent of the Gross Domestic Use. And of course this varies according to the energy source: Whereas the total amount of energy imports decreased between 2014 and 2015, the quantity of imported oil grew by more than 2%.
Net Import Tangent 2014 and 2015 (in PJ) 5 100,6% 85,7%
92,1% 94,1%
98,3% 72,5%
65,9% 60,7%
4,7% 4,1% TOTAL
COAL
OIL
GAS
RENEWABLES
Net Import Tangent (Imports - Exports in % of Gross Domestic Use) 2014 Net Import Tangent (Imports - Exports in % of Gross Domestic Use) 2015 Diagramme 5: Net Import Tangent 2014 and 2015 Source: Federal Ministry of Science, Research and Economy, 2016 (provisional data)
For the transport sector the dependence on oil import is quite obvious. In terms of security this poses a quite serious concern: the fragility of the supply security is quite obvious. There are various reasons that endanger the sufficient supply of oil: political stability and international policy issues influence the world trade to an important degree. Examples are Libya, Iran and Russia. But the other major suppliers are far from being stable democracies as well. These are the regions that dispose of the largest oil reserves.
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Diagramme 6: Oil Imports 2012 - 2013 Source: Federal Ministry for Science and Research 2015
Freight Transport Energy security in terms of supply and in terms of sustainability varies by the mode of transportation: Road, air transport and inland waterways transport largely depend on fossil fuels, whereas rail on electrical energy. Whereas Austria has a high potential for the (even sustainable) production of electrical energy, the supply of oil depends to a large extent on imports. Most empirical data on energy use are available for the freight transport. Still more than three quarter of the freight transport in terms of million tons is delivered by road transport, only a mere fifth on rail. The other modes can be neglected.
Freight Transport by Mode 2015 (in mt) 2% 0% 21%
Rail Road
77%
Inland waterway transport Air
Diagramme 7: Freight transport by mode 2015 (in million tons) Source: Statistik Austria 2016; own calculations
In 2015, the goods transported by all modes amounts to totals to 475.4 million tons. The overall performance of transport services has increased by 5.9%. However, this varies by mode of transport: Whereas rail transport has increased by only 2.3% road transport has increase by 7.8%. In terms of import dependency this means an increase of oil imports.
Development of Freight Transport 2013 - 2015 (in mt) 10,0% 5,0% 0,0% -5,0%
RAIL
ROAD
-10,0%
INLAND WATERWAY TRANSPORT
AIR
-15,0% -20,0% Diagramme 8: Increase or Decrease by Transport Mode 2013 – 2015 (in million tons) Source: Statistik Austria 2016 ; own calculations
For geographical reasons Austria is a transit country. With respect to the modes there are quite relevant variations1: Rail: More than 90% of the freight transport services on the rail is domestic. Between 2013 and 2015 the increase of domestic freight transport on the road is about the average increase. Road: With nearly 30% the share of domestic rail transport services for shows the highest share, however to a much lower extent: 26,6% is due to import of goods, 26.2% due to transit. The remaining goods transported by rail is related to imports. As compared to 2013 the – however slim – increase of the freight transport on the rail is due to the liberalization of the transport sector: the transit transport services on the rail increased, whereas the domestic freight transport decreased. The services by international competitors to the national transport service might play a role in the increase. Other modes: Air transport and inland transport play a minor role in the Austrian transport system. In air transport there was an increase of both passenger and freight transport, in inland waterways transport a sharp decrease.
1
The following section is based on data of Statistik Austria 2016.
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Inland water transport is dependent on weather conditions, and specifically on the water level. For the total energy balance in transport this has, however, only minor influence if at all.
Environmental Impacts What follows from the report so far, the current situation of the transport sector has a major impact on the environmental situation. In terms of CO2 emissions, the transport sector produces more than 1/3 of the total emissions. By far the most important polluter is road transport (passenger and freight). The European Union influences the Austrian transport policy to a large extent and has developed goals for the improvement of the environmental situation. The EU monitors the achievement of its Member States on a regular base and disposes over tools to enforce measures. As an example, in July 2016 the European Commission has threatened Austria to sue according to the Clean Air directive. Austria did not meet the goals for the reduction of emissions caused by road transport. In terms of CO2, since 1990 the emissions have increased in 2015 by nearly 40%, since 2010 still 3.4% (Table 4).
Emissions caused by transport in 2015 (in kt CO2e) 30 000 25 000 20 000 15 000 10 000 5 000 0 1990
2005
2010
2015
Diagramme 9: GHG emissions caused by transport in kt CO2 Source: Stranner 2015
One of the major reasons is the steady increase of the consumption of diesel as compared to other fuels. With 2/3 of the emissions in measured in Terrajoule, diesel has the most important share in the energy consumption in the transport sector. Gasoline produces less the 1/5 of the pollution (Table 5). Obviously, electric rail transport is quite low and contributes little to the GHG emissions. It is interesting to see, however, that diesel fuel enjoys still tax advantages, which might be changed in a near future.
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Energy Consumption 2015 in TJ 300 000 250 000
200 000 150 000 100 000 50 000
9
0 Energy [TJ]
Gasoline fossil
Diesel fossil
Bioethanol Biodiesel
electricity rail
Diagramme 10: Energy Consumption 2015 in TJ Source: Stranner 2015
POLITICAL TARGETS IN THE TRANSPORT SECTOR As outlined in the introduction Austria understands energy security in a comprehensive way. In 2010 the Austrian government has published the energy strategy of Austria till 2020 (Federal Ministry of Economy, Family and Youth 2010). It rests on three pillars:
Security of supply;
Energy efficiency; and
Renewable energy resources.
Austria’s energy policy was since 1972 oriented towards increasing the efficiency of its energy system, and did not even change this policy orientation during the price decrease of oil in the 1980s, or the price decrease in the recent years. It meets the goals of the EU growth strategy ‘Europe 2020’2. Obviously, the Austrian energy and transport policy is not only a national, but a multi-level agenda: the European Union impacts on the Austrian transport and energy policy with directives and regulations, and for the responsibility for the implementation the regions (“Bundesländer”), communities, and municipalities have an important role to play The energy strategy defines targets in the transport sector, but is not very precise on the timeline. The Comprehensive Transport Concept of the Transport Ministry defines the targets in terms of the EU 20/20/20 strategy. For Austria this means a reduction of GHG emissions by 17%, of the consumption of renewables by 34% and at least a 10% of renewables in the transport sector (Federal Ministry for Transport, Innovation and Technology 2012).
2
Details about the Austrian energy can be found in an earlier report (R. J. Pohoryles 2014b); a shorter version in: Engström Stenson 2015)
One of the major policy goals of the transport policy is the reduction of GHG emissions by 2025. The goal is to reduce the NOx emissions by 70% and the emissions of particulates by 50%. With respect to national and transnational transport, the Austrian transport policy is based on six areas: infrastructure; public transport; intelligent transport systems; technology & innovation; need orientation; and energy efficiency (Federal Ministry for Transport, Innovation and Technology 2012). Another strategical approach are the transport policies on the regional and urban level (Oblak 2003; Hiess 2013).
National and Transnational Transport The Austrian transport policy should be seen, at least in part, in relation to the energy strategy. What the Comprehensive Transport Concept of the Austrian government however shows is that the wider definition of energy security, as proposed by Johansson (Johansson 2013), is more adequate for policy analysis than a more narrow definition limiting itself to supply and demand of energy. In 2012 the Ministry of Transport, Innovation and Technology published a comprehensive document on the targets till 2025 and beyond (Federal Ministry for Transport, Innovation and Technology 2012). The general targets of the document are to ensure a social, safe environment friendly and efficient transport system. The document underlines the importance of the cooperation between the EU, Austria and its regions (Bundesländer, ‘federal states’ in Austrian terms) for a comprehensive strategy. The analysis offers targets and related policy measures focuses on seven dimensions: infrastructures (rail, road, air transport and waterways); public transport; transport safety; intelligent integrated planning; technology & innovation; need orientation; and environment & resource efficiency. For the purpose of this case study on energy security the relevant dimensions are infrastructure; public transport; intelligent transport system; technology & innovation; and resource efficiency. Modern infrastructure for transport There is a clear commitment of the ministry to support public transport with a focus on the modernization and the expansion of the existing network. The document Target for Networks 2025+ foresees an increase of the rail capacity of 30% by 2025. With respect for roads the strategy is less ambitious and proposes to bridge the gap in the high capacity network and rehabilitation of the existing roads under the responsibility of the state.3 With respect to the inland waterways the focus is on the (transnational) Danube. As the capacity depends on the water level the ministry promises measure to optimize the usability. Insofar as air transport is concerned the aim is to link all airports to the public transport network. Public transport The general aim of the Austrian transport policy is to increase the attractiveness of public transport. This does not limit itself to the infrastructure. As public transport is understood as a basic supply the rail concept is mostly based on the needs of the state-owned ÖBB. Since the end of 2011 there is a
3
Due to the Austrian federalism the high-quality roads are the responsibility of the state, lower quality roads under the responsibility of the regions.
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private competitor to the public enterprise, the Westbahn AG.4 The Comprehensive Transport Concept does, however, not mention the private competitor in the document. The policy aim is to ensure a basic supply of public transport at affordable prices. The services should operate according to the needs of the population according to which the operating schedules are to be revised and integrated step-by-step. Intelligent transport systems The integration of this chapter in the Comprehensive Transport Concept is based on an earlier document published by the ministry (Federal Ministry for Transport, Innovation and Technology 2011). It is based on the Communication of the European Commission on this issue. The aims are to ensure a cleaner, a more efficient, including more energy efficient, and a safer and more secure transport system. The Action Plan aims at “applying Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) to transport. These applications are being developed for different transport modes and for interaction between them (including interchange hubs)” (European Commission 2008). The aims are greening of transport; improving transport efficiency; and improving road safety and security. Technology & Innovation The Austrian Transport Ministry puts a lot of emphasis on research and development. The research programmes are administered by a specific agency, the Austrian Research Promotion Agency (FFG, Forschungsförderungsgesellschaft). Another relevant research and development programme is “klimaaktiv” of the Federal Ministry for Agriculture, Environment & Water Management. This programme includes a specific programme on sustainable mobility (Austrian Environment Agency 2015b). Environment and energy efficiency The Austrian Transport Ministry sees a high potential in the development of e-mobility, alternative drive engines and Intermodality. A related topic is the promotion of public transport.
Urban Transport For energy security the transport system in metropolitan areas play a crucial role. The capital city of Austria accounts for ¼ of the total Austrian population (around 2 million inhabitants as compared to a total of around 8 million inhabitants in Austria). Vienna has developed a Masterplan for Transport in 2003 (Oblak 2003). The master plan is evaluated every five years, the last evaluation dates from 2013 (Hiess 2013). The Masterplan consists of five elements: sustainability; efficiency & effectiveness; public acceptance; cooperation: and innovation.
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The sustainability goal has in the understanding of the Masterplan three dimensions: economic sustainability (accessibility), social sustainability (efficient and affordable services for all), an ecological sustainability (climate protection, reduction of emissions). The efficiency goal (internalization of external costs and incentives for the use of car-sharing, efficient fleet management and public transport) Public Acceptance: awareness raising, information and participation
As in Austria there were ideological objections against liberalization of public services the barrier against private competitors was finally the result of the European liberalization policies.
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Cooperation: Cooperation with the neighbouring regions, the Austrian Railways, and PublicPrivate Partnership The innovation goal (processes, organisation, infrastructure and technology): The City of Vienna has to support research and development.
In order to achieve these goals, the City of Vienna planned in 2003 the increase of the attractiveness of public transport and new transport modes (underground, local railways, area management, and the increase of the use of bikes). The latest evaluation report (Hiess 2013) confirmed the general orientation of the Masterplan. However, the framework conditions since 2003 did dramatically change, not the least due to the entrance of Austria’s neighbours to European Union. Both the growth of the population and the transport of goods did increase higher than expected. The goals for modal split, for the increase of 70% of bike transport, of 21% of public transport and an increase of regional transport of 70% is expected till 2030 the policy efforts to reach the goals have to become determined. Insofar as the regulation of the incoming regional transport and the city enlargement is concerned the planning of an integrated transport system that includes public transport and bikes has to be coordinated. Also, the further development of transport information systems and a user-friendly design of these systems is key for influencing the transport behaviour. Examples are Park & Ride and Bike & Ride facilities, as well as rental and car-sharing capacities. And last but not least, awareness raising and public participation target specific populations will help to reach the goals.
CURRENT AND FUTURE TRANSPORT AND FUEL POLICIES It is quite obvious that the current transport and fuel policies of Austria are not sustainable. The recent warning of the European Commission to sue Austria for not meeting the standards of the Clean Air Directive is a quite clear, however not the only, indication in this respect. Following Johansson’s proposal for a broader definition of energy security the report looks at the policies and policy measures as already implemented, or proposed by experts (Zechmeister 2015). The Austrian Environment Agency has presented two scenarios: a business-as-usual scenario (scenario with existing measures, WEM) and a scenario with additional measures (WAM). Based on these two scenarios the Austrian Environment Agency has developed a couple of policy proposals for the future. Traditionally there are three politics options (procedures to implement politics) at the disposal of decision makers: Laws & Regulations; Incentives & Disincentives; and Persuasion, or in modern terms Awareness Raising (Lindblom 1977).
Policy measures In what follows we will report on the development as assessed by the Austrian Environment Agency and discuss the related policy measures (Figure 1). According to Regulation (EU) 525/2013 the Austrian Government has to deliver a report on the GHG emissions and a related policy evaluation. The Austrian Environment Agency is in charge of this report. The report deals with the environmental impacts of the activities of all economic actors and the households. As transport is the most polluter it contains an important chapter on transport (Stranner 2015). As a relevant element of the reduction of pollutant emissions is the increase of energy efficiency, and thus the reduction of energy
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use, the use of renewables and alternative modes of transport as well as technologies of alternative technologies, this report is key for the case study. Increase of the share of clean energy sources The Austrian Government has promoted an increase use of biodiesel and alternative motor concepts (hybrid and w-mobility) already since the late 1990s. Since October 2007 ethanol has been added to petrol. Following the Directive 2009/28/EC on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources Austria has amended the Austrian Fuel Ordinance (Kraftstoffverordnung – KVO 2012). Some efforts have been undertaken by the Ministry to promote e-mobility, however there is still a lack of infrastructure, the cots for the vehicles are high, and the range of the vehicles is comparatively low due to the low capacity of batteries. In 2012, the Ministry for Agriculture and Environment and the Austrian Chamber of Commerce delivered an action plan for the promotion of e-mobility. It recommends inter alia financial incentives, pilot regions with a good infrastructure for e-mobility, privileges for e-cars, innovative business models, and research and awareness raising. The recommendations of the Austrian Energy Agency are to further promote biofuels, biodiesel and e-mobility through resolute activities and a closer collaboration between the federal government, the regions and the corporations. With respect to e-mobility the development of the new car market and the fleet renewal are key. The aim is an increase of the Austrian electric fleet by 3.4% and the increase of new registration of electric vehicles by 18% till 2020 (Pötscher 2015). Enhancement of Energy Efficiency (Road) The increase of energy efficiency is key for an energy strategy for transport that aims at reducing the consumption of fuels and of pollutant emissions. The enhancement of energy efficiency is not a merely technological issue, but necessitates supporting policies with incentives, disincentives as well as mobility management and awareness raising. The Austrian Government has taken some steps towards the efficiency increase: the taxation policy foresees increases of the fuel taxes step-by-step and intends to change the structure of the fuels taxes. With respect to the latter the Government recently started a debate on cancelling the tax rebate for diesel that was in Austria granted since a long time for different reasons. The recent strategy combines regulations like air quality induced speed limits, fiscal measures (fuel tax increase and greening the truck toll) and mobility management and awareness raising. Furthermore, research promotion is an important element of the strategy. Additional measures to enhance energy efficiency are disincentives by increasing the energy taxes for fossil fuels gradually and by implementing Energy Efficiency Directive (2012/27/EU) through the Austrian Law on Energy Efficiency 2014. The law aims at a major reduction of energy use, however there are not yet clear measures defined. If successful, the optimistic scenario could be achieved. Modal shift to environmentally friendly transport modes The notion of modal mostly means the shift is to reduce road transport by combining short-distance transport of goods with long-distance rail transport. With the modernization of hubs at the railway stations and distribution centres for goods Austria undertook already the right step. Masterplans for mobility management for both goods and passengers will improve the situation in th future (Heinfellner, Ibesich, and Kurzwei 2015).
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Policy Measures to Reduce the CO2 emissions 2020 - 2015 (Austrian Environment Agency, 2015) "Business as usual" Scenario PaM N°8: Increase share of clean energy sources in road transport
PaM N°9: Increase fuel efficiency in road transport
PaM N°10: Modal shift to environmentally friendly transport modes
Scenario with aditionnal measures Implementation of Directive 2009/28/EC on the promotion of the Promotion of alternative and biofuels use of energy from renewable PaM N°11: Further enhancement of sources clean energy sources for transport Implementation Plan for electric Promoting electric vehicles mobility Implementation of Energy Efficiency Fuel tax increase Directive (2012/27/EU) Greening the truck toll PaM N°12: Further enhancement of Implementation of the Road Mobility management and awareness fuel efficiency in road transport Infrastructure Charging Directive raising 2011/76/EU Air quality induced speed limits Promoting mobility management Mobility management and awareness including a Bicycle Masterplan & a Walking Masterplan PaM N°13: Further modal shift to environmentally friendly transport Incentives for an increased use of public modes Promotion of corporate rail transport connections for freight transport Implementation of the National Action Plan Danube Navigation
Diagramme 11: Schematic Overview on policy goals and policy measures based on the report of the Austrian Environment Agency (Zechmeister 2015)
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Energy Consumption of the Transport Sector The report of the Austrian Environment Agency includes a policy assessment chapter that assesses the impact of Policies and Measures (PaM). It defines a baseline scenario that assesses the future development according to the policies already in force and an optimistic scenario based on additional measures. The transport scenarios are based on studies of the University of Technology Graz, Institute for Internal Combustion and Thermodynamics (Hausberger, Schwingshackl, and Rexeis 2015). Overall, the scenarios show that Austria cannot reach the policy targets with business-as-usual policies. These might at best lead to the stabilization of the emissions between 2015 and 2030. With additional measures, however, a serious reduction could be achieved. In the baseline scenario with existing measures the total energy consumption between 2015 and 2035 increases by 7%, whereas with additional measures the total energy consumption decreases by 20%.
Total Energy Consumption 2015 - 2035 (in TJ) 450 000 400 000 350 000 300 000
250 000 200 000 150 000 100 000 50 000 0 2015
2020
with existing measures (WEM)
2025
2030
2035
with additional measures (WAM)
Diagramme 12: Total Energy Consumption Transport 2015 – 2035 in TJ Source: Stranner 2015 (Austrian Environment Agency)
Policy alternatives matter. The most obvious case is fossil diesel. In the baseline scenario the consumption increases by 6.3%, whereas additional measures the consumption decreases by 2.5%. Gasoline decreases in both scenarios, however only 27.5% in the baseline scenario as compared to 50.2% in the scenario with additional policies.
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Transport Scenarios: Energy consumption of mobile sources 2015 - 2051 by fuel (inTJ) Bioethanol (WAM) Bioethanol (WEM) Biodiesel (WAM) Biodiesel (WEM) Gasoline fossil (WAM) Gasoline fossil (WEM) Diesel fossil (WAM)
16
Diesel fossil (WEM) 0
50 000
100 000
2035
2025
150 000
200 000
250 000
300 000
2015
Diagramme 13: Total Energy Consumption Transport 2015 – 2035 in TJ Source: Stranner 2015 (Austrian Environment Agency)
A comparison between the two policy models show the importance of additional policy measures. The potential of additional measures is for all of the sources high and relevant if Austria wants to meet the goals of both the European Union and the Austrian ones. Please note, however, that in both scenarios the importance of renewables is comparatively low and possibly underestimated. Both scenarios do not enough assess the potential of technological innovation. Potential of Energy Savings TJ 2015 - 2035 by Sources in % (Comparison between WEM and WAM Scenarios)
35,0% 30,0% 25,0% 20,0% 15,0% 10,0%
5,0% 0,0% gasoline fossil
diesel fossil
bioethanol
biodiesel
Diagramme 14: Potential Energy Savings by Sources 2015 -2035 Source: Stranner 2015 (Austrian Environment Agency); own calculations
Environmental Impacts There are good reasons for including environmental impacts in a study for energy security. Environment and climate policies are drivers for the energy policies on the European and national levels, both influenced by international conventions and agreements. Potential dangers arising from energy production with respect, for instance, to health influence the production and consumption of the sources of energy. A good example is the debate around the nuclear energy. However, environmental degradation and climate change are relevant in this respect as well. It has implications for economy and health and public awareness has risen in the past decades. The potential for emission reductions in the transport sector is not negligible: with the current policy measures the share of pollutant emissions is constant. It amounts to one third of all emissions. With additional measures the share could decrease to about one fourth of the total pollutant emissions.
Emissions of Pollutamts in 2013 and projections 2015-2035 (in kt CO2 eq.) 80 000 70 000 60 000
50 000 40 000 30 000 20 000 10 000 0
2013
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Total with existing measures
Transport with existing measures
Total with additional measures
Transport with additional measures
Diagramme 15: Pollutant emissions in 2013 and projections 2015-2035 under different transport and energy policy scenarios (in kt CO2 eq) Source: Stranner 2015 (Austrian Environment Agency)
It is interesting to see that the additional policy measures influence the modes in a different way: Between 2015 and 2035 the potential of the reduction of the pollutant emissions from energy consumption is around 14%, in the transport sector it is as high as 31%. This is mostly due to road transport, which has the highest share of energy consumption in the transport sector. The other means of transport are negligible in this respect.
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Emission Reduction with additional policy measures 40,0% 30,0% 20,0% 10,0% 0,0% -10,0%
18
LULUCF: Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry
Diagramme 16: The potential of pollutant emission reductions with additional policy measures 2015 - 2035 Source: Stranner 2015 (Austrian Environment Agency); own calculations
Research and Innovation: Increasing the energy efficiency in the the transport sector The scenarios of the Austrian Energy Agency are well argued and give good indications for the Austrian energy future in general and, more specifically, for the consumption of the transport sector. However, it does not account for the impact of research and technology in a satisfying manner. Of course it is quite difficult to estimate the impact of revolutionary research findings. However, the direction of the current European and national research might give us some hints. it is relevant to look at the potential of substitution of traditional fuels based on the import of oil as well as the reduction of energy use by technology and changes in the user behaviour. Research and development plays a crucial role in this respect. Research and development does not only depend on the activity that are undertaken by the economic sector, but on public funding as well. A recent study on the Austrian research funding allows for insights in the priorities of of the Austrian research and development policies in the energy sector. With respect to energy research Austrian research funding is granted by the FFG, the public research foundation for research and innovation. A recent evaluation project compares the Austrian efforts to the ones of the European Union in its 7th Framework Programme for Research and Development. The data show communalities and differences between these programmes (Pohoryles and Lapin 2014; Pohoryles 2014)5. Although half of the the Austria research communities expect an impact of their
5
The two studies were based on findings from a survey of coordinators of projects funded under the 7th Framework Programme – Transport Theme - by the European Union, and from a survey of Austrian research organizations funded by the Federal Ministry for Transport, Innovation and Technology. The two studies were carried out by the ICCR Foundation.
research on policy it seems they are more oriented towards the companies than their European colleagues. There were, however, two third of the Austrian researchers participating in the European Framework Programme as well. These have the same expectations on policy influence like their European counterparts.
Policy Impact Expected? 70,0% 60,0% 50,0%
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40,0% 30,0% 20,0% 10,0% 0,0% Austria (n=99)
EU (n=167)
Policy Impact Expected
No Policy Impact expected
Diagramme 17: Comparison of policy impact expectations Source: Pohoryles and Lapin 2014
The Austrian transport research programme and its results have not only an impact on the transport sector, but have some impacts on other sectors as well. There are, of course, overlaps. In most sectors the increase of efficiency is a goal of the research, followed by the support of sustainable development. In the transport sector these expectations are the highest whereby the impact on sustainable development is nearly as important as efficiency. This can easily be explained by the fact that the increase of efficiency reduces the consumption of energy, and hence of the pollutant emissions.
Expected Impacts by Sectors 70,0% 60,0% 50,0% 40,0% 30,0% 20,0% 10,0% 0,0% Construction
Transport
Efficiency Increase
Environment
Energy
Sustainable Development
Research Employment
Diagramme 18: Expected Impacts by Sector (n=99) Source: Pohoryles and Lapin 2014
Of course, the topics are partly interrelated, so there are overlaps between the different categories. It still makes sense to look at the topics separately: for instance, as the decrease of energy use might be caused by new technologies, it does not necessarily lead the decrease of emissions, the latter being dependant on the type of fuels used. And there are different actors involved: reduction of traffic jams and increase of transport safety depend, as the decrease of energy use, from transport behaviour. To reach the goals of energy security in all its aspects, the research strategies have to be quite specific. Apparently, current research underrates the importance of the users.
Expected Improvement due to Research 60,0%
20
50,0% 40,0% 30,0% 20,0% 10,0% 0,0% Emission Decrease
Decrease of Reduction of Energy Use Traffic Jams
Austria (n=99)
Noise Reduction
Increase of Transport Safety
EU (n=167)
Diagramme 19: Expected Outcomes of the Research: Comparison of Austria and the EU Source: Pohoryles and Lapin 2014
TOP 3 (AND ½) CHALLENGES FOR THE TRANSPORT SECTOR The Austrian Comprehensive Transport Concept proposes a ‘Vision Zero‘ for the transport sector. Vision Zero is supposed to ensure safety, efficiency and sustainability (environmental friendly transport). Whereas ‘Vision Zero’ is a merely political term that is difficult to operationalize, one can identify relevant targets and the related challenges based on a SWOT analysis. With respect to policy measures ‘Vision Zero’ remains quite vague, and the report of the Austrian Environment Agency shows a certain reluctance about confirming the feasibility of the pathway towards such an ambitious aim, at least with business-as-usual measures. As shown above the additional measures as proposed by the Agency are, however, not more precise (Stranner 2015). With respect to the energy security issue the relevant action areas are the increase of efficiency and measures that ensure sustainability. With respect to the increase of efficiency the challenge is the development of new technologies that decrease the use of energy and, more specifically, the use of oil. With respect to sustainability the challenge is to substitute fossil fuels by renewables and electricity and to reduce GHG emissions. Another challenge is to change attitudes and behaviour of the society and the economy.
1 - Increase of energy efficiency
There is a high potential for technological innovation. Transport management and Intelligent Transport Systems could be further developed and will contribute to energy efficiency. Another issue is the improvement of the transport infrastructure. Policies can influence the increase of energy efficiency, however the economic sector and research have an important role to play in this development. Strengths The industry responds to the regulations and incentives of the policy framework that is a mix of incentives, disincentives and regulations. Of particular importance are the Energy Efficiency Directive (European Parliament & Council 2012) and the related Austrian Law (Federal Ministry for Science, Research and Economy 2014). Weaknesses According to the report of the Austrian Environment Agency discussed in detail above the measures in the business-as-usual model are not sufficient to meet the goals (Stranner 2015). Up until now the additional measures as foreseen in this report remain quite weak. Opportunities Alternative vehicle concepts, with innovative propulsion systems have a high potential to increase the energy efficiency. Also, innovative vehicles like self-driven cars could influence the current energy consumption not only for passenger transport, but for commercial transports as well. Transport concepts have a high potential as well: infrastructure is an important issue, for rail, roads and intermodal transport. Innovative mobility concepts are relevant to this issue as well. Tolls are an important instrument for traffic management. Another example is the increase of cooperative transport systems, not the least for the discharge of the infrastructure as well. For instance, innovative transport concepts can decrease the energy consumption by decreasing traffic jams. Threats Although Austria emphasizes its role in environmental technologies the development of alternative propulsion systems is costly and at the same time risky. The market introduction of the products is mostly a medium-term and log-term process. Public support depends on the overall economic situation. With respect to alternative vehicles Austria is dependent on imports and can hardly influence the development: Although Austria plays a certain role as component supplier there are no Austrian car producers. Even if PPP models develop further than they are currently applied infrastructure on public funding. This in turn depends on the economic development and the structure of public spending. Cooperative systems are up until now only in an early development stage.
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2 – Substitution of fossil fuels by alternative fuels The basic energy alternatives are biofuels, hydrogens and e-mobility. There are advantages and disadvantages for all these fuel alternatives. These have major advantages over the conventional fuels: they are more sustainable, decrease the import dependency at least from countries that are unstable, or do not comply with European values. However, in terms of energy security e-mobility seems to be the best alternatives. There are quite ambitious programmes for the development of alternative fuels. Strengths For Austria biofuels seem to be the most attractive solutions for alternative fuels (Austrian Environment Agency 2015a). This is in line with the European Renewable Energy Directive (European Commission 2009). The Directive promotes of the use of energy from renewable sources fosters the use of biofuels for four different reasons: reduction of CO2 emissions; reduction of the dependence on imports of fossil fuels; support of national agricultural policy, which has come under pressure from the objectives of the Common European Agricultural Policy; and opportunities to intensify development cooperation (European Commission 2009). Whereas the first generation of biofuels still cannot fulfil the demand in the European Union, the total share including domestic production for biodiesel and bioethanol is higher than 90% of all biofuels. The development of second-, third- and fourth-generation biofuels will increase this share. Since May 2016 Austria is the only country that has a Agricultural Certification Scheme recognised by the European Commission fulfilling the sustainability criteria of the EU (European Commission 2016). E-mobility has a good record in the decarbonisation of transport. The amount of GHG emission reduction, however, depends on the source of production of electricity. Austria is here in a favourable position: due to the availability of hydro-energy sources the GHG emission reduction is quite high and the dependence from imports lower than in most of the other EU Member States (Pohoryles 2014b). Though only at an early stage, Hydrogen fuels have a potential for Austria as well. More of 90% for hydrogen is produced from natural gas, which compared with the process of creation of gasoline reduces CO2 emissions well-to-wheel by around 60% (‘The Hydrogen Car Is Back—Again’ 2014). Austria produces a not negligible amount of biogas though the precise figures are not know a based on estimations of the Austrian Environment Agency (Austrian Environment Agency 2015a). Weaknesses Biofuels ensure decreasing independence from crude oil, but does not imply independence from imports. Furthermore, in Europe, first and second generation biofuels (waste or cellulose) cannot meet demand, especially if the use of biofuels is meant for more than for admixtures to conventional fuels. In the medium term the volume of imports will decrease; however, as based on voluntary schemes, it is questionable whether the sustainability criteria for imports are met. This is particularly true for the social standards. For Austria, however, the importance of imports from third countries outside the European Union is so far, quite low. However, this is only true as long as biofuels are just used for admixtures to conventional fuels. Many hope are put in the “third generation of biofuels” (algae). However, as already discovered earlier, there is a severe downside of the production of third-generation of biofuels: algae need large amount of water, nitrogen and phosphorus. This results in more GHG emissions and higher costs
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than fuels from other sources (Biofuel.org.uk 2010). Also, up until now the potential of the “fourth generation of biofuels” (like bio-chemistry, or “solar-to-fuel” methods) seems to be low as well (Kagan 2010). E-mobility has a high potential for the decarbonisation of transport. However, experts do not belief in a dramatic increase of e-mobility in the short-term or even medium-term (Stranner 2015). Hydrogen fuels are still at an early stage of development. As all over Europe, in Austria there are many barriers against the market introduction of hydrogen driven vehicles. One of the major problems is the lack of fuel infrastructure. Hence there is little consumer demand and no or little public support for the development. There are little expectations for hydrogen driven vehicles among most experts, at least in the near future. Looking at only the exhaustion by the vehicles the only emission is water. However, the production of hydrogen fuels carbon dioxide is still released into the atmosphere (‘The Hydrogen Car Is Back—Again’ 2014). Opportunities The future of biofuels is a quite contested issue, and both for ecological and economic reasons. A slight increase of admixtures seems possible, but EU sustainability criteria set limitations. However, research might bring about some advances for the “fourth generation” and potentially for the “fifth generation” for increasing the energy security. As in Austria E-mobility is at a very early stage there is a high potential for the substitution of conventional fuels in transport. It is feasible to increase e-mobility to a much more ambitious extent than foreseen in the Austrian scenario. Norway, for instance, aims at a full ban of the sale of fossil fuel-based cars by 2025. Already now, one out of four cars run on electricity. It goes without saying that the production of electricity in Norway is based on hydropower (Staufenberg 2016). For Austria, the domestic sustainable production of electricity will, however, have to increase by an advancement of further source than hydropower. Wind and photovoltaic have still a low share in the production of energy and account for a mere 5.8% share of the production of electricity. Though not yet popular in Austria and in Europe at a whole, hydrogen fuels might have an unforeseen upswing. Major Asian car producer are pioneers in the field and offer already a full range of vehicles. The cars on the market promise a 300-mile range and fast refuelling, of course dependent on the available infrastructure. This was even pushed by transports policies of California, which is the world leader in the field and of which the experience serves as a blueprint for the USA. California provides a full range of benefits for the users of hydrogen driven vehicles and invests a serious amount of money for building a reasonable infrastructure. The California Fuel Cell partnership will add 100 state-wide refuelling stations across the country. The potential of a major increase in the demand of hydrogen driven vehicles major car producers have formed competitive research and development alliances, like Ford/Daimler/Renault-Nissan, BMW/Toyota, and GM/Honda (‘The Hydrogen Car Is Back—Again’ 2014). As Austria is a major supplier for the car industry it will contribute to the development. Threats In general, the development of the oil price has a certain influence on the efforts to develop alternative solutions. Although the availability and hence the supply of crude oil is not endless, politics and markets react quite short-sighted on economic and political developments. This is supported by the failure of prognoses that predicted an end of supply in a comparatively short time span. Major long-term investments are quite costly and risky, which can lead to major
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disinvestments. The history of DESERTEC and the related DII is an example of major disinvestment. In 2009 a consortium of 20 companies was formed to investigate into the feasibility of improving the energy situation in Africa and the potential exports to Europe. All kinds of renewable energy sources are envisioned, but the sun-rich deserts of the world play a special role in North Africa. Based on a giant hydropower station the perspective was to i.a. deliver sustainable energy to Europe. In 2014, the consortium was restructured with only three companies remaining (Wikipedia, n.d.). Biofuels might have a certain potential to increase energy security, however there are reasons to believe that there are serious limitations for its weight in the total European and Austrian energy balances. Both, the natural limitations and the disappointment about the development might lead to a disinvestment in the sector. As the domestic sustainable production of electricity has a high share in the total energy production, e-mobility has in Austria most likely the highest potential of enhancing energy security. However, due to the low capacity of batteries, the lack of a satisfying infrastructure, the price of the vehicles and the little range of cars the consumer demand might not increase and stay at the level as foreseen in the report of the Austrian Environment Agency. The share of hybrid vehicles might increase, which has of course less impact on the import dependency of Austria. Hydrogen mobility has a high potential as well, but is in its early beginning. Not only in Austria, but in Europe as a whole, there is little awareness of this technology offer, and hence not much demand for vehicles driven by hydrogens. This in turn means a quite limited offer from car producers. As far as the Austrian energy and transport concepts are concerned they pay little attention to this innovation pathway. However, an increase of the share of this source necessitates not only awareness raising, but public investment as well. Hence, the demand will be extremely low, which might create a major barrier for this source, and hence for an element of energy security for the foreseeable future.
3 - User attitudes and behaviour Strengths It the last years there are quite developed system to reduce the use of individual cars on the city, the regional, and the national levels. Car sharing, the reduction of the vehicle fleet of companies by using the various offers of car and truck rentals, e-mobility, bikes and walking are examples. Intermodality both for cargo and passengers have a high potential and the infrastructure for using intermodal solutions have increased at a reasonable rate. Weaknesses One can observe the change of attitudes and the behaviour of the population, which has, however, still slow. For instance, there are specific trainings to increase the awareness of specialists and the public at large, however between 2010 and 2015 in terms of the share of passenger cars of all cars remained constant at around 56% and the respective share of trucks was around 9%, the remaining share were motor bikes. Alternative fuels like hybrids and gas play a very minor role, even over time, and amount to less the 0.5%. Overall, the total number of vehicles in Austria increased from 6.2 million in 2010 to 6.6 million vehicles in 2015. During this period in terms of passenger cars per inhabitant the share remained stable at around 55%.
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Opportunities The increase of the share of vehicles run by diesel is much too high and does not seem to decrease at a substantial rate. Furthermore, there is a high potential of e-mobility. Car sharing can and the continuous improvement of public transport can contribute to the change not only of attitudes, but to change of behaviour as well. Intelligent traffic management could help to decrease road transport as well. Awareness raising campaigns could change the attitudes of the users of passenger cars and commercial users as well.
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Energy Sources of Vehicles in Austria (2000 2015) 70,0% 60,0% 50,0% 40,0% 30,0% 20,0% 10,0%
0,0% 2000
2010
2011 Share Diesel
2012
2013
2014
2015
Share Petrol
Diagramme 20: Energy Sources of Austrian Passenger Cars Source: (Statistik Austria 2016)
Threats There is a certain gap between attitudes and behaviour. Awareness raising does not help on its own for changing the behaviour. In this respect there is a clear relation between this topic and two other challenges mentioned above.
A note on innovation and research: Increasing energy efficiency and substitution of oil The transport sector is the major consumer of oil products. As a long term trend one can expect a decrease of the demand for oil products: alternative technologies in the transport sector, like electro mobility and the use of renewables will reduce the demand as well as changes of the transport behaviour of the public at large, which is due to new mobility offers like car sharing and the improvement of public transport. Increase of energy efficiency and decrease of fossil fuels is not only an economic and ecological issue, but should be in the centre of energy security policies. Research and innovation has a high potential
to achieve a major progress in both areas. A robust science and research policy should be a priority, especially also in the field of international and European cooperation. The research institutes are responsible for most of the Austrian transport research. Although both the European and the Austrian research programmes allow for the participation of research institutes and companies the share of institutes in both the national and European research programmes are also more active in joint international and European research activities.
Participation in Austrian and European Research Programmes 80,0% 60,0% 40,0% 20,0% 0,0% Research Institutes (n=58)
Transport Related Entreprises (n=39)
Already experience in EU Research
Total (n=97)
No experience in EU Research
Diagramme 21: Participation in national and EU Transport Research Programmes by Institution Source: Pohoryles and Lapin 2014
The participation in European research programmes depend on experience: those who participated in projects in earlier European Research programmes have already ongoing projects in H2020, or at least intend to participate. Those without experience do not even intend to.
Intention to participate in H2020 80,0% 70,0% 60,0% 50,0% 40,0% 30,0% 20,0% 10,0% 0,0% Intended or ongoing Unlikely or not participation in H2020 intended at all (n=71) (n=28)
Already experience in EU Research
Total (n=99)
No experience in EU Research
Diagramme 22: Intention to participate in H2020 by Experience Source: Pohoryles and Lapin 2014
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At least in this respect the public support has to considerably increase. Only two third of the Austrian researchers who participated in the Austrian transport research programme participate in the European programmes as well. Half of those who did not yet participate in the European research programmes complain about the lack of resources and the lack of finances. This is of course interrelated. One of the advantages of the European research programmes is that they foster cooperation, even trans-European one. National projects are often carried out by one single institution. Companies explain this by the necessity to compete on the markets; however, mutual knowledge exchange is a driving force for innovation. In this respect competition and cooperation are two sides of one coin. 27
CONCLUSIONS As the report shows the definition of energy security is far from being trivial, or uncontested. The narrow definition of energy security restricts the topic to the security of supply. However, such an approach ignores the framework conditions that define the entire arena of energy security. Sustainability criteria set limits for domestic production, or even for imports from third countries. User attitudes and user behaviour are relevant topics for both energy efficiency and the substitution of fossil fuels. Also, energy policy in general, and more specifically transport policy, take all three elements into account, secure energy supply, energy efficiency and reduction of emissions, or, as Johansson puts it, energy systems as “object exposed to security threats”, or as “subject in generating or enhancing insecurity” (Johansson 2013). So both from a political perspective and from a scientific perspective it seems to take all the elements into consideration. Hence, a comprehensive definition produces the knowledge required for understanding the future of energy and transport policies. The Austrian energy security policy cannot be understood without the European context. The Austrian Comprehensive Transport Policy Concept (Federal Ministry for Transport, Innovation and Technology 2012) refers explicitly to European Directives and, indeed, to European Regulations, and so does most of the Austrian energy legislation and the related transport legislation. The major security threat for energy security is the dependency on fossil fuels. Most of the crude oil has to be imported from regions that are unstable, furthermore the world market prices are quite fluctuating, depending on political developments and technological insecurities. There are different measures to increase energy security: the increase of energy efficiency and the substitution of fossil fuels by alternative fuels, which strengthens domestic production on the European level. Biofuels and e-mobility offer opportunities to increase energy efficiency, combined with a further improvement of the infrastructures and further efforts in R&D. Recent studies show that with the measures that are currently in place Austria will not meet the energy efficiency goals and the climate goals and as foreseen. The Austrian Energy Agency calls for additional measures, but when it comes to alternatives and pathways remains quite vague (Stranner 2015). International examples show the way forward. Although the increase of energy efficiency has a certain potential, alternative fuels seem to be the most promising way to increase energy security and to meet the climate goals as devised at the COP 21 in November 2015. Biofuels have a certain potential, but due to sustainability criteria and the disappointing results of the “third generation”
and the “fourth generation” of biofuels up until now this alternative has its limitation. For admixture purposes the supply on the European level might suffice. As substitution of fossil fuels, in the foreseeable future the potential of biofuels seems to be by far too low, the more so as African countries get increasingly aware of the environmental and social risks of the production of biofuels with respect to land-use, biodiversity and the degradation of the quality of the environment. The vision of an “OPEC verte” as heralded by the former president of Senegal, Abdulaye Wade, is not anymore on the African agenda. For Austria, and most likely for Europe as a whole, the most viable way forward is the increase of emobility, provided that electricity is produced in a sustainable manner. Due to safety concern neither the Austrian population nor any Austrian political party would accept nuclear energy production as a sustainable alternative for electricity production6. Rather, hydropower and solar energy have a high potential. For the increase of e-mobility, however, major investments have to take place, mostly in infrastructure and the development of electrically driven vehicles. An interesting alternative is hydrogen power. The development of the use of hydropower might be a solution for the future, but there are two major obstacles: the availability of vehicles and infrastructures, and the unclear environmental impact well-to-wheel. Furthermore, the creation of the infrastructure for filling stations and the development of vehicles for the mass production are quite costly. The importance of attitudes and behaviour of both the people at large and the economic sector, is not negligible. As consumers of personal transport and freight transport the impact of the society and of the economic sector on energy security is not negligible: the increase of energy efficiency and the decision on modes of transport on the one side, the efficient use of energy on the other side influence the demand. However, even if attitudes change, the user behaviour depends on transport and energy policies. If infrastructure is lacking, alternatives will not be attractive. Incentives and disincentives play an important role for influencing consumer behaviour. The rise of diesel driven vehicles in the 1980s was at least encouraged by the reduction of taxes levied on diesel fuels till today. Transport and energy taxes should rather foster the consumer demand of alternative fuels by incentives and disincentives. Increased consumer demand encourages the car producers and subsequently the car suppliers to invest in research and development of innovative vehicle concepts. This, in turn, will result in the increase of the range of affordable innovative vehicles on the market. Although this is a contested issue the authors of this study hold that by mere incremental steps the situation will not improve. As the energy used in the transport sector is mostly based on fossil fuels, and responsible for the highest share of energy imports of fossil fuels, the transport sector poses the most important challenge for energy security. The energy sector offers, however, the highest potential for the decrease of import dependency as well. However, even with additional measures to current policies, the shift towards the e-mobility is by far too slow to impact on the structure of energy consumption. The use of hydrogens negligible. There is a clear need for a pathway that accelerates the implementation of e-mobility far beyond the current Action Plan, or at least more resolute activities to implement it (Federal Ministry for Agriculture, Forestry, and the Environment & Austrian Chamber of Commerce 2012). The pathway towards an energy revolution in the transport sector includes infrastructure improvement, incentives and disincentives and research and
6
In a Referendum in 1978 the Austrian population called for a ban of a nuclear power station, and in response to this result the Austrian Parliament issued a Law on the general ban of nuclear power production in Austria.
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development, which is often not enough reflected. Mere legislative measures will not help if the preconditions like availability at affordable prices are not guaranteed and infrastructure insufficient. For a shift towards the development of alternatives, research, development and innovation are key. There is a lot of research going on, both on the European level and on the Austrian level. Research collaboration on the European level is progressing and is a prerequisite for efficient and effective research. Also, transdisciplinary research with the inclusion of stakeholders is progressing. If we look for a pathway to a decarbonised society and economy, however, a sort of an energy revolution is needed. Here, mere applied research does not suffice. And only continuous activities, a patchwork of various activities with a medium-term and a long-term perspective can bring such an energy revolution to reality. Energy security is feasible – and would have an impact on sustainability in all its dimension: ecology, economy & society.
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REFERENCES
Austrian Environment Agency. 2015a. ‘Biokraftstoffe Im Verkehrssektor 2015 (Biofuels in the Transport Sector in Austria 2015)’. Vienna: Federal Ministry for Agriculture, Forestry, and the Environment & Austrian Chamber of Commerce. file:///C:/Users/Poho/Dropbox/2ICF/Projekte/Projekte/2016/Energy%20Future%20Transport/Background/2015%20B MLUF%20Biokraftstoffbericht%202015.pdf. ———. 2015b. ‘The “KLIMAAKTIV” Climate Protection Initiative’. Vienna: Federal Ministry for Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water Management & AEA. file:///C:/Users/Poho/Dropbox/2ICF/Projekte/Projekte/2016/2015%20klimaaktiv.pdf. Biofuel.org.uk. 2010. ‘Third Generation Biofuels’. Biofuels - The Fuel of the Future. http://biofuel.org.uk/third-generation-biofuels.html. Engström Stenson, Daniel. 2015. Europe’s Energy Future - How to Combine Energy Security with Reduced Emissions. Brussels: European Liberal Forum. http://www.liberalforum.eu/en/publications.html. European Commission. 2008. ‘Action Plan for the Deployment of Intelligent Transport Systems in Europe - Communication from the Commission’. http://ec.europa.eu/transport/themes/its/road/doc/2008_its_action_plan_com_en. pdf. ———. 2009. ‘Directive 2009/28/EC on the Promotion of the Use of Energy from Renewable Sources’. Directive of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 April 2009. http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legalcontent/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32009L0028&from=EN. ———. 2016. COMMISSION IMPLEMENTING DECISION on the Compliance of the ‘Austrian Agricultural Certification Scheme’. http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legalcontent/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32016D0708&from=DE. European Parliament & Council. 2012. Energy Efficiency Directive. http://eurlex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32012L0027&from=EN. Federal Ministry for Agriculture, Forestry, and the Environment & Austrian Chamber of Commerce. 2012. ‘10-Punkte Aktionsprogramm zur e-Mobilität (Action Programme to increase e-mobility)’. Vienna. http://www.econnected.at/userfiles/Aktionsprogramm_20E_Mobilitaet.pdf. Federal Ministry for Science and Research. 2015. ‘Energiestatus Österreich 2015: Entwicklung Bis 2013’. Bundesministerium fürWissenschaft, Forschung und Wirtschaft. Federal Ministry for Science, Research and Economy. 2014. Energieeffizienzgesetz (EEffG). Federal Ministry for Transport, Innovation and Technology. 2011. ‘Strategie zur Umsetzung eines Intelligenten Verkehrssystems in Österreich (Strategy for the implementation of an intelligent transport system in Austria)’. Wien: Federal Ministry for Transport,
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ANNEX: TABLES Energy Consumption by Sector Table 1: Energetic Enduse 2005 – 2015 in PJ Source: Federal Ministry for Science, Research and Economy 2016 (provisional data) ......................................................................................................34 Table 2: Energy Consumption by Source 2014 – 2015 in PJ Source: Federal Ministry for Science, Research and Economy 2016 (provisional data) ................................................................................34 Table 3: Imports by Source 2014-2015 Source: Federal Ministry for Science, Research and Economy 2016 (provisional data) .................................................................................................34 Table 4: Oil Imports 2012 - 2013 Source: Pohoryles 2014) based on data in: Federal Ministry for Science and Research 2015 ...............................................................................................................35 Table 5: Energy Consumption by Sector in PJ and in % Source: Federal Ministry for Science, Research and Economy 2016 (provisional data) ...............................................................................................35 Table 6: Scenarios 2015 - 2035 Total Energy Consumption Transport with existing and with additional measures (TJ) Source: Stranner 2015 (Austrian Environment Agency)...............................36 Table 7:Scenarios 2015 - 2035 by Source of Energy with existing and with additional measures (TJ) Source: Stranner 2015 (Austrian Environment Agency) .....................................................................36 Table 8: energy savings 2015 – 2035 by source (Comparison between the baseline and the optimistic scenarios Source: Stranner 2015 (Austrian Environment Agency); own calculations ..........................37 Table 9: CO2 Emissions in kt by Transport Mode Source: Stranner 2015 (Austrian Environment Agency).............................................................................................................................................37 Table 10: Baseline Scenario Energy Consumption of mobile sources by fuel with existing measures Source: Stranner 2015 (Austrian Environment Agency) .....................................................................38 Table 11: Scenario Energy Consumption of mobile sources by fuel with existing measures Source: Stranner 2015 (Austrian Environment Agency) ..................................................................................39 Table 12: Increase of GHG emissions caused by transport in kt CO2 Source: Stranner 2015 (Austrian Environment Agency)........................................................................................................................39 Table 13: Potential of the reduction of pollutant emissions 2015 – 2035 Source: Stranner 2015 (Austrian Environment Agency); own calculations .............................................................................39 Table 14: Inventory of vehicles in Austria 1(995 - 2015) Source: Statistik Austria 2016 ......................40 Table 15: Expected Policy Impact Source: Pohoryles and Lapin 2014 ................................................40 Table 16: Expected Policy Impact Source: Pohoryles and Lapin 2014 .................................................40 Table 17: Participation in national and EU Research Programme by Institution Source: Pohoryles and Lapin 2014 ........................................................................................................................................40 Table 18: Intended Participation in EU Research Programme by Experience......................................41
33
Energetic Enduse 2005 – 2015
34
Table 1: Energetic Enduse 2005 – 2015 in PJ Source: Federal Ministry for Science, Research and Economy 2016 (provisional data)
Energy Consumption by Source 2014 – 2015 2014
2015
(1'180.5 PJ)
(1'246.8 PJ)
Energy Source Coal
10,8%
9,4%
Oil
48,1%
47,3%
Gas
29,5%
31,7%
Renewables
3,5%
3,2%
Electrical Energy
8,1%
8,5%
Table 2: Energy Consumption by Source 2014 – 2015 in PJ Source: Federal Ministry for Science, Research and Economy 2016 (provisional data)
Imports by Source 2014-2015 Energy Source Coal
2014
2015
1,7%
1,7%
Oil
37,9%
37,9%
Gas
16,5%
16,5%
Renewables
15,8%
15,8%
Combustible waste
1,0%
0,9%
District Heat
6,9%
7,1%
20,2%
20,1%
Electrical Energy
Table 3: Imports by Source 2014-2015 Source: Federal Ministry for Science, Research and Economy 2016 (provisional data)
Oil Imports (barrels)
2012
2013
7 837
7 687
Slovak Republic
11 480
10 022
Check Republic
21 332
22 845
Egypt
41 137
56 844
Germany
Albania
-
6 943
Algeria
321 226
297 714
Azerbaijan
232 072
698 814
Georgia
-
12 890
Iraq
70 239
Iran
148 511
Kazakhstan
361 806 -
2 003 033
1 969 135
Kuwait
417 549
398 096
Libya
961 196
722 895
Nigeria
1 316 225
1 483 857
Russia
1 046 782
1 100 014
843 716
600 798
29 574
27 652
Saudi-Arabia Tunisia
35
Table 4: Oil Imports 2012 - 2013 Source: Pohoryles 2014) based on data in: Federal Ministry for Science and Research 2015
Transport and Fuel Policies Year
Total 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
766,5 828,4 808,5 824 806,6 844,8 918,9 898,7 926,5 934,4 941,3 998,8 1005,3 1060,6 1077 1110,9 1106,3 1095,3 1109,3 1068,3 1134,6 1098,2 1099,8 1119,2
Industry PJ % 216,6 219,3 209,5 213,2 214,3 218,4 224,5 242,8 237,1 235,6 253,6 258,8 257 272 287,8 303 307 311,8 318,9 309,4 329,4 336,3 333,9 335,7
28,3 26,5 25,9 25,9 26,6 25,9 24,4 27 25,6 25,2 26,9 25,9 25,6 25,7 26,7 27,3 27,8 28,5 28,7 29 29 30,6 30,4 30
Transport PJ % 208,8 231,3 232,8 238 239,4 244,7 268,5 256,8 287 280,3 292,7 313,1 335,8 357 364,5 379,3 374,3 382 369,7 356,4 366,6 357,7 353,9 370,3
Services PJ 27,2 27,9 28,8 28,9 29,7 29 29,2 28,6 31 30 31,1 31,3 33,4 33,7 33,8 34,1 33,8 34,9 33,3 33,4 32,3 32,6 32,2 33,1
73,1 82,6 86,5 89,5 85,7 96,4 115,9 115,1 114,6 127,3 113,2 131,5 127 140,6 138,9 124,7 134,2 123,4 135,2 117 128,2 115,8 112,6 111,4
% 9,5 10 10,7 10,9 10,6 11,4 12,6 12,8 12,4 13,6 12 13,2 12,6 13,3 12,9 11,2 12,1 11,3 12,2 11 11,3 10,5 10,2 10
Households PJ % 243,5 270,4 255,7 260,5 245,7 262,9 286,4 260,5 264,3 268,3 259,6 272,5 263,4 268,2 262,9 281 268,5 255,9 263 263,2 286,8 266,2 275,8 278,2
Table 5: Energy Consumption by Sector in PJ and in % Source: Federal Ministry for Science, Research and Economy 2016 (provisional data)
31,8 32,6 31,6 31,6 30,5 31,1 31,2 29 28,5 28,7 27,6 27,3 26,2 25,3 24,4 25,3 24,3 23,4 23,7 24,6 25,3 24,2 25,1 24,9
Agriculture PJ % 24,5 24,7 24 22,9 21,5 22,5 23,5 23,5 23,6 22,9 22,2 22,8 22,2 22,8 23 22,9 22,2 22,2 22,6 22,3 23,5 22,2 23,6 23,7
3,2 3 3 2,8 2,7 2,7 2,6 2,6 2,5 2,5 2,4 2,3 2,2 2,1 2,1 2,1 2 2 2 2,1 2,1 2 2,1 2,1
Transport Scenario: Total energy consumption (in TJ) Total Energy Consumption [TJ]
2035 Increase / Decrease
2015
2020
2025
2030
with existing measures (WEM)
399 207
406 509
415 723
424 629
427 199
7,0%
with additional measures (WAM)
399 604
340 235
335 474
327 314
322 466
-19,3%
Table 6: Scenarios 2015 - 2035 Total Energy Consumption Transport with existing and with additional measures (TJ) Source: Stranner 2015 (Austrian Environment Agency)
36 Transport Scenario: Energy consumption of mobile sources by fuel (in TJ) Source of Energy Diesel fossil (WEM) Diesel fossil (WAM) Gasoline fossil (WEM) Gasoline fossil (WAM) Biodiesel (WEM) Biodiesel (WAM) Bioethanol (WEM) Bioethanol (WAM)
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Increase / Decrease
263 488
268 460
274 357
278 457
280 003
6,3%
263 755
213 446
208 507
199 867
193 921
-26,5%
70 358
68 532
63 536
57 433
50 975
-27,5%
69 626
58 171
50 443
41 196
34 694
-50,2%
20 540
19 475
19 778
19 914
19 623
-4,5%
21 068
17 919
17 614
17 045
16 734
-20,6%
1 028
928
833
739
729
-29,1%
1 092
914
795
651
551
-49,5%
Table 7:Scenarios 2015 - 2035 by Source of Energy with existing and with additional measures (TJ) Source: Stranner 2015 (Austrian Environment Agency)
Potential of Energy Savings by Sources (Comparison between WEM and WAM Scenarios) Energy (TJ) Potential Energy Savings by Sources in % Gasoline fossil
31,9%
Diesel fossil
30,7%
Bioethanol
24,4%
Biodiesel
14,7%
Vegetable oil
0,0%
BIO ETBE
26,3%
LPG
0,0%
Natural gas
-37,8%
Bbiogas
0,0%
H2
0,0%
Coal
0,0%
Electricity rail
5,1%
Electricity passenger cars
37
-4,8%
Aviation jet fuel
0,0%
Table 8: energy savings 2015 – 2035 by source (Comparison between the baseline and the optimistic scenarios Source: Stranner 2015 (Austrian Environment Agency); own calculations
CO2 emissions in 2013 and projections 2015-2035, scenario "with existing measures" CO2 [kt]
2013
2015
2020
2025
2030
67 768
67 940
67 252
65 534
65 156
64 870
22 603
22 959
23 041
23 018
22 780
22 315
55
60
69
79
89
96
21 815
22 317
22 435
22 404
22 171
21 718
114
117
121
125
129
126
Domestic Navigation
12
12
12
11
11
11
Other Transportation
607
453
404
399
380
363
Total (excluding LULUCF) Transport Domestic Aviation Road Transport Railways
LULUCF: Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry
Table 9: CO2 Emissions in kt by Transport Mode Source: Stranner 2015 (Austrian Environment Agency)
2035
Transport Scenario: Energy consumption of mobile sources by fuel "with existing measures" Energy [TJ]
2010
2015
72 889
70 358
68 532
63 536
57 433
50 975
224 455
263 488
268 460
274 357
278 457
280 003
2 833
1 028
928
833
739
729
14 205
20 540
19 475
19 778
19 914
19 623
612
395
0
0
0
0
1 473
1 600
1 453
1 304
1 157
LPG
847
676
281
0
0
0
Natural gas
276
125
186
243
293
288
Biogas
1
0
0
0
0
0
H2
0
0
0
0
0
0
Coal
6
5
4
4
3
3
6 473
7 166
7 769
8 372
9 030
9 732
4
45
564
3 191
7 775
11 570
29 544
33 781
38 857
44 105
49 828
53 135
Gasoline fossil Diesel fossil Bioethanol Biodiesel Vegetable oil BIO ETBE
Electricity rail Electricity passenger cars Aviation jet fuel
2020
2025
Table 10: Baseline Scenario Energy Consumption of mobile sources by fuel with existing measures Source: Stranner 2015 (Austrian Environment Agency)
2030
2035
1 141 38
Scenario "with additional measures" Energy [TJ] Gasoline fossil Diesel fossil Bioethanol Biodiesel Vegetable oil
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
72 889
69 626
58 171
50 443
41 196
34 694
224 455 263 755 213 446 208 507 199 867 193 921 2 833
1 092
914
795
651
551
14 205
21 068
17 919
17 614
17 045
16 734
612
634
626
617
609
625
1 473
1 688
1 410
1 223
999
841
LPG
847
581
186
0
0
0
Natural gas
276
131
200
265
325
397
Biogas
1
34
52
68
84
102
H2
0
0
1
1
11
112
Coal
6
5
4
4
3
3
6 473
7 123
7 715
8 308
8 954
9 231
BIO ETBE
Electricity rail Electricity passenger cars Aviation jet fuel
19
86
734
3 524
7 742
12 120
29 544
33 781
38 857
44 105
49 828
53 135
Table 11: Scenario Energy Consumption of mobile sources by fuel with existing measures Source: Stranner 2015 (Austrian Environment Agency)
Table 12: Increase of GHG emissions caused by transport in kt CO 2 Source: Stranner 2015 (Austrian Environment Agency)
Potential of Emission Reduction by Policy Measures Emission Reduction Total (excluding LULUCF) Transport Domestic Aviation Road Transport Railways
13,6% 30,8% 0,0% 31,6% 0,8%
Domestic Navigation
-9,1%
Other Transportation
0,0%
LULUCF: Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry
Table 13: Potential of the reduction of pollutant emissions 2015 – 2035 Source: Stranner 2015 (Austrian Environment Agency); own calculations
39
Table 14: Inventory of vehicles in Austria 1(995 - 2015) Source: Statistik Austria 2016
40
Research and Innovation Policy Impact
Austria (n=99)
EU (n=167)
Policy Impact Expected
49,5%
68,8%
No Policy Impact expected
50,5%
31,2%
Table 15: Expected Policy Impact
Source: Pohoryles and Lapin 2014
Impacts on... (n=99)
Efficiency Increase
…Construction …Transport …Environment …Energy …Research
Sustainable Development
19,2% 69,7% 51,5% 33,3% 37,4%
20,2% 64,6% 34,3% 27,3% 21,2%
Table 16: Expected Policy Impact Source: Pohoryles and Lapin 2014
Participation in H2020
Already experience in EU Research
No experience in EU Research
Research Institutes (n=58)
77,6%
22,4%
Transport Related Entreprises (n=39)
53,9%
46,2%
Total (n=97)
68,0%
32,0%
Table 17: Participation in national and EU Research Programme by Institution Source: Pohoryles and Lapin 2014
Employment 9,1% 31,3% 15,2% 17,2% 33,3%
Current or intended participation in H2020
Already experience in EU Research
No experience in EU Research
Intended or ongoing participation in H2020 (n=28)
79,0%
21,0%
Unlikely or not intended at all (n=71)
57,6%
42,4%
Total (n=99)
66,0%
33,0%
Table 18: Intended Participation in EU Research Programme by Experience Source: Pohoryles and Lapin 2014
41
