reserves management for maximum value - Palantir Solutions

A Palantir Whitepaper:

RESERVES MANAGEMENT FOR MAXIMUM VALUE Integrating reserves reconciliations into the year round business process

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TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 SUMMARY

4

2 WHY MANAGE RESERVES?

5

3 RESERVES ESTIMATION AND CLASSIFICATION

7

3.1 Reserves estimation methods

7

3.2 History of reserves classification systems

7

3.3 SPE PRMS

9

3.4 Product types

11

3.5 Reclassification (reconciliation) reasons

12

4 REGULATORY REPORTING OF RESERVES

13

4.1 SEC

13

4.2 NI 51-101

14

4.3 ASX/ASIC

15

4.4 EIA-23

15

4.5 Other National systems and standards

16

4.6 SOX

16

5 RESERVES RECONCILIATION PROCESS

17

6 PALANTIRRESERVES AS THE SOLUTION

19

6.1 Workflow

20

6.1.1

Admin tasks

20

6.1.2

Economic screening

21

6.1.3

Reserves recording – normal data entry

21

6.1.4

Data loading

21

6.1.5

Reserves reconciliation/approval

21

6.1.6

Reserves reporting

21

6.2

Screenshots

22

6.2.1

Maintaining data

22

6.2.2

Loading data

22

6.2.3

Reconciling balances

23

6.2.4

Change records approval

23

7 APPENDIX

24

7.1 SEC report format

24

7.2 SEC report sample from PalantirRESERVES

24


DOCUMENT CONTROL Document versions

Version

Date

By

Changes Applied

1.0

14-Feb-14

Henry Isi Odiase

Initial version

1.1

31-Jul-14

Henry Isi Odiase

Company address update

Referenced documents

Ref No.

Description

1.

SPE – Petroleum Resources Management System

2.

NI 51-101 Standards of disclosure for Oil and Gas activities

3.

EIA 23 - Annual survey of Domestic Oil and Gas Reserves

4.

ASX/ASIC – Chapter 5 and guidance notes 31 and 32


1 SUMMARY Booking reserves refers both to the process of including reserve estimates (by volume and value) in a company’s annual report to shareholders and regulators, and also internally, for the management of company resources. If the approach used for booking reserves is not consistent, external reports will not provide a proper basis for investors to make comparisons and might be rejected by regulators. Internally, business planning decisions will be wrong and investment opportunities will be missed. Reserve reconciliations are part of the process of booking reserves and are used to provide: - Disclosures to regulatory agencies and investors - Corporate dashboards and metrics - Valuations for acquisitions and dispositions Reserve reconciliations help track migration of reserves from Possible to Probable to Proved, as well as the replenishment of a companies’ resources (Contingent and Prospective categories). To facilitate the process of reserves assessments, most companies use a classification system defined so that – 1P – P90 – Proved: low (pessimistic) estimate with at least 90% chance of being exceeded. 2P – P50 – Proved + Probable: best estimate with at least 50% chance of being exceeded. 3P – P10 – Proved + Probable + Possible: high (optimistic) estimate with at least 10% chance of being exceeded. The above classification aligns probabilistic estimates with reserve categories, a commonly held practice even though it might not always be valid. A big problem companies in the petroleum extracting industry face, is putting in place a reliable process for booking reserves which guarantees accurate and repeatable results. The consequences of things going wrong are very serious, including regulator’s fines and value write downs. One of the regulators for example, the SEC, regularly raises audit questions on a good proportion of filings made to it. Based on the SPE PRMS, PalantirRESERVES eliminates the inconsistency that can creep into the reserves management process and brings together the following data streams into a common context: - Geology and Petroleum engineering technical applications - Petroleum economic data


- Production data - Accounting system data - Engineers’ spreadsheets and curves Business rules relating to how changes are reconciled between a prior reporting period and the current one are applied to the common data, which is organized into defined reserve categories for a set of product types. Each reconciled change is documented in a change approval record which is submitted for approval, thus providing an audit trail. The output of the process is a set of reports targeted at regulatory reports or internal management.

2 WHY MANAGE RESERVES? Uniquely in the oil and gas industry, the costs and risks of exploration are high and the possibility of discovering resources of commercial value are not. The elapsed time between initial exploration and bringing reserves into production can be several years, and it can take up to another 30 years or more to produce all recoverable reserves. Thus, the ability to produce hydrocarbons profitably is the existential reason for companies in the oil and gas industry. The drivers are both internal (resource management and making the right investment decisions) and external (regulatory reporting and reporting to investors). Reserves planning and management is therefore an integral part of an upstream Oil and Gas Company’s assessment of future. Companies must allocate a value to the expected recoverable volumes of different product types whilst balancing technical and commercial uncertainty and risk. Regulators also require statements of reserve positions at specific times. Prudent management requires that a company makes constant assessments of reserves, even outside of these required periods. A hydrocarbon resource should fulfil four broad criteria to be considered as a reserve:  Usually, drilling of an exploratory well must have proved existence of oil and gas.  The hydrocarbons must be recoverable using existing technology.  The extraction must be commercially viable.  The resource must still be in the ground.


For a deterministic estimate a single best estimate is made based on geological, engineering and economic data. For probabilistic estimates, geological, engineering and economic data are used to generate a range of probabilities. Reserves figures are periodically revised based on additional geological and engineering data, or when economic conditions change. So what happens when the reserves management process breaks down? Obviously, a company’s profitability suffers. But there are also more serious issues involved as the table below shows. Many of the listed events were accompanied by unplanned CEO exits, which underscores the importance of getting the reserves management process right. Table 2.1 – Downward reserves revision by selected E & P companies Year

Company

Write-down

2004

Shell

Initial 3.9 billion boe on the 9th of January 2004. Final writedown 4.47 BOE, equivalent to 23% of the company’s total at the time.

2004

El Paso Corp.

Disclosed a 40% write-down of reported reserves, 1.8 tcf of gas

2004

Nexen

67 MM boe or 8%, due to revision in recovery factors and economic limit

2004

Husky

275 bcf or 13% from elimination of PUDs and extension not going ahead

2004

Norske Hydro

Reassessment of PUDs lead to 6.6% write-down.

2005

Stone Energy Corp.

20% write-down, equivalent to 170 bcf.

2006

Repsol YPF

1.25 MM boe or 25%.

Internally, the process of tracking and reporting on reserves and performance allows management to keep track of a company’s value and how it has changed due to factors such as price, production in the intervening period, technical forecast of future production and reserves, acquisitions and dispositions. The reserves management process enables a company to keep track of transfers from one category to another (maturation).


3 RESERVES ESTIMATION AND CLASSIFICATION Reserves are estimated using a company’s expertise in the geological sciences and engineering technology. To facilitate this, the assessed hydrocarbons must be classified into reserve categories, and by product type. When evaluations are being made and it is necessary to move a reserve value from one category to another, there should also be a list of reasons why a reserve should change from one category to another. 3.1 Reserves estimation methods These may be broadly classed as analogy, volumetric and performance methods. Analogy – this is based on selecting as an analog, a nearby or similar producing area and assessing reserves based on the known characteristics of the reference well or field. Volumetric – the basis of this approach could either be deterministic or stochastic. For a deterministic estimation, single values that are considered representative of the reservoir are used. Stochastic methods could use continuous probability density functions, combined either analytically or via Monte Carlo methods. An alternative probabilistic approach is to use the decision tree approach. The output would usually be presented as 1P, 2P and 3P. Performance – This is the third class of reserve estimation methods, some types of which are decline trend analysis, material balance and reservoir simulation. 3.2 History of reserves classification systems Hydrocarbon classification systems have evolved over the last 80 years (see below). Many early definitions of the project and resource lifecycle followed the modified McKelvey classification where projects could mature in the following order – PLAY – LEAD – PROSPECT – APPRAISAL- DEVELOPMENT – PRODUCTION After 2007, the reserves classification commonly used in most jurisdictions is the Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE) Petroleum Resources Management System (PRMS), issued in 2007, with additional detailed guidelines in 2011. The PRMS arose from a study that aimed to harmonize various classification systems in use before then, as shown below. 1937

The American Petroleum Institute (API) issues oil reserves classification system.

1946

The America Gas Association (AGA) issues an equivalent classification for proved gas reserves.

1962

J.J. Arps publishes his classification system.

1965

SPE classification and definitions.


1972

McKelvey box system.

1987

SPE and WPC independently issue reserve definitions.

1997

SPE and WPC jointly issue reserve definitions.

2000

SPE/WPC/AAPG joint resource classification system.

2005

SPE OGRC compares –

2007

1978

US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)

1980

United States Geological Survey (USGS)

1997

(and 2001) Norwegian Petroleum directorate classification (NPD)

2001

UK Statement of recommended practices (SORP)

2002

Canada Security Administrators (CSA)

2004

United Nations Framework Classification (UNFC)

2005

Russian Ministry of Natural Resources (RF)

2005

China Petroleum Reserves Office (PRO)

SPE PRMS

The SPE mapping sub-committee of the Oil and Gas Reserves Committee (OGRC) in October 2005 looked at eight important classification systems and found: 

The major resource categories (e.g. discovered commercial, discovered sub-commercial and undiscovered) are broadly similar.



Most classification systems had 3 major deterministic scenario classes which could termed low, best and high estimates. There is also usually, an equivalent set of 3 classes, based on probabilistic assessments.

The OGRC committee findings were part of the considerations on which the SPE based the issuing of the Petroleum Resources Management System (PRMS) in 2007. The PRMS is now the most widely used classification system, and contains the following important conclusions: -

Resources and reserves are contiguous, with resources being the total set of available hydrocarbons. Reserves are a subset of that, which is commercially justified to extract.

-

The PRMS is project based, and represents the netting of a defined projects’ expenditure and its anticipated revenue, as a means to determine the value of specified accumulations of hydrocarbons.

-

To be included in the reserves class, a project must be sufficiently well defined to establish its commercial viability. This goes together with the concept of economic limit: the point at which project net cash flow becomes negative, thus defining project end of life.


The following section summarizes the important aspects of the PRMS as it relates to reserves classification. 3.3 SPE PRMS The SPE PRMS incorporates the essential aspects of several national and international bodies which have made efforts to classify reserves and resources. The following figure summarizes reserve and resource classifications by three important dimensions common to most systems – (i)

Discovery status or maturity or certainty, which relates to geological and engineering considerations.

(ii)

Commerciality, which relates to economic status

(iii)

Project definition, which relates to how the reserve progresses to production.

Fig 3.4 – The Reserves/Resource matrix

Proved reserves – Using a deterministic assessment method, these are the estimated quantities of oil and gas which geological and engineering data demonstrate with reasonable certainty to be recoverable in future years from known reservoirs under current economic and operating conditions. In terms of a probabilistic assessment, there should be at least a 90% probability that quantities recovered will exceed this, the low estimate, hence the P90 synonym for this category.


The proved reserves classification can also be subdivided as shown in the figure below. Fig 3.2 – Proved reserves sub classification

Probable reserves – Referring to a probabilistic assessment, probable reserves are less of a sure thing than proved reserves, and are also the best estimate”, and can be defined as that quantity of hydrocarbons having a better than 50% chance of being produced, hence the P50 abbreviation. Possible reserves – Less sure than probable, the amount defined as possible reserves have at least a 10% chance of being exceeded, hence P10. Another definition of this category is the high estimate. Even if it is possible to recover all of proved, probable and possible reserves, there would still be oil and gas in place afterwards. The ratio of total reserves (proved + probable + possible) to the total hydrocarbon in place is the recovery factor. It is possible to increase the recovery factor by applying secondary and tertiary recovery techniques – gas lift, gas injection, water injection, fracking, thermal methods, horizontal drilling – which would count as additional projects under the SPE PRMS. The P90, P50 and P10 categories are frequently expressed in an alternative composite classification (a simplification which maps probabilistic estimates to reserve categories) such that – 1P – Proved 2P – Proved + Probable 3P – Proved + Probable + Possible


The illustration below shows the spectrum of reserve and resource categories with relation the certainty dimension. Fig 3.3 – Summary resource classifications

3.4 Product types Hydrocarbon resources span from conventional oil and gas, available from underground reservoirs, accessed by drilling, which then flow through natural and assisted pressure; through to oil sands and bitumen, which are extracted by mining. The list below covers most commercially extracted hydrocarbon resources, and also includes synthetic oil which is the product of an industrial rather than an extractive process. - Light crude oil - Medium crude oil - Heavy crude oil - Associated gas - Non Associated gas - Natural gas liquids - Condensate - Synthetic oil - Bitumen - Hydrates - Shale oil - Shale gas - Coal bed methane - Methane - Butane - Propane


3.5 Reclassification (reconciliation) reasons During the process of reserves reconciliation, it is required to ascribe reasons to the value changes between opening and closing balances. The reasons that the opening balance could differ from the closing include: - Production - Discovery (new field) - Discovery (new reservoir in old field) - Extension - Improved recovery (surface technology) - Improved recovery (sub surface technology) - Technical revision - Price change - Cost change - Other economic factors - Purchase - Sale


4 REGULATORY REPORTING OF RESERVES Reporting in fulfilment of regulatory requirements is one of the most important goals of any reserves management process. The table below summarizes the requirements for some important regulatory bodies. A fuller explanation of the requirement for each body follows in the sections after the table. Required to submit report if -

Regulator

Reserves volume

SEC

Net

EIA-23

Gross(8/8ths )

NI 51-101

Company interest

Reserves value

US listed

US Operator

Canadian company

London stock exch. listed

Australian company

X X NDCF/SMOG (optional)

SORP ASX/ASIC

X X X

4.1 SEC US companies and non US companies operating in the US must make annual disclosures to conform to this set of regulations in their annual Form 10-K (domestic) and Form 20-F (foreign) filings. One of the goals of the recent revision was to harmonize the requirements in 10-K and 20-F. Canadian companies that file under NI 51-101 and are subject to the Multi-Jurisdictional Disclosure System (MJDS), do not also have to make an SEC filing. SEC rules are arguably the most influential regulatory rules for oil and gas companies since the SEC requires reports for foreign and domestic oil and gas companies whose stock is traded on US exchanges, thus covering a large proportion of world oil and gas companies. An SEC reserves report is required if material oil and gas activities constitute 10% of revenue, or 10% of operating income or comprise 10% of total assets. The report must list by product type; the proved developed and proved undeveloped categories, as well as the sum of the two – the total proved reserves.


The SEC’s latest update to its regulations came into force in January 2010. The main changes made at that time are summarized in the list below. -

For reserves reporting by category, 1P was and still is mandatory to report. 2P and 3P were previously not allowed but can now be optionally disclosed. Reserves must be disclosed and grouped by geographical area, or by country, if greater than 15% of a company’s reserves is in a particular country.

-

The latest regulations allow the disclosure of unconventional resources if they are of reasonable economic certainty.

-

The reliable technology test has been widened. Previously, flow testing and actual production were the only allowed reliable technologies.

-

PUDs must still be developed, at most, 5 years after first being booked.

-

Previously, value disclosure was based on year end product price, but in the latest regulations yearly average of first of the month prices are to be used.

-

Companies are required to file third party reports when a third party has estimated or audited a company’s reserves.

Some common issues and red flags raised by the SEC in relation to companies’ disclosures include: -

Technology which forms the basis of PUD booking is not adequately disclosed.

-

A mathematically impossible development rate is proposed.

-

Project spending decreases but reserves increase.

-

Stale PUDs, which are PUDs remain booked in the same category more than 5 years from the initial record.

-

Reserves development start scheduled more than five years from record date.

-

A large percentage of the total reserves are PUDs.

4.2 NI 51-101 First proposed in 2002, the Canadian National Instrument NI -51 – 101 – Standards of Disclosure for Oil and Gas activities came into effect in 2003 and defines and interprets required disclosure by Canadian companies engaged in the extraction of oil and gas and other hydrocarbon resources. It defines filing requirements and how reserves data is to be stated – categories and product types required to be reported, responsibilities of issuers and directors, and methods to be used for measurement. An important component of the NI – 51 – 101 stipulations are the definitions from the COGEH – Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluation Handbook (2nd edition 2007) jointly prepared by the SPE Calgary chapter and the Canadian Institute of Mining, Metallurgy and Petroleum.


4.3 ASX/ASIC Reserves reporting by Australian companies is based on standards set by the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) and the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC). In 2012, ASX released new rules for reserves and resources reporting. The rules affect companies engaged in mining and are required to report under a revised Joint Ore Reserves Committee (JORC) Code, and for the first time, oil and gas companies who are now required to report under the Society of Petroleum Engineers Petroleum Resources Management System (SPE-PRMS). The new rules have been in effect since 1st December 2013. The ASX rules are underpinned by SPE PRMS and represent the standardization of a previously nonstandard reporting system. Chapter 5 of the listing rules (further explained in guidance notes 31 and 32), covers requirements for quarterly and annual reporting by companies, which are required to include a compliant reserves statement in their annual report. Areas covered include the definition of material oil and gas projects, rules for conditional listing of contingent and prospective resources, and competent persons' sign-off. On its part, the ASIC regulates compliance and has the following sanctions available in its tool kit: -

Stop order.

-

Surveillance.

-

Enforceable undertaking.

-

Infringement notice.

-

Order to stop trading.

-

Civil and criminal proceedings.

4.4 EIA-23 The US Energy Administration annually selects a sample of operators to submit reports on the form EIA-23L. The EIA-23L is based on the total (gross) 8/8ths annual operated production and estimated proved reserves of oil, natural gas and lease condensate. Regardless of the operator’s share, this report must show gross. An interesting requirement in this report is the inclusion of flared and vented gas and the requirement to report associated and non-associated gas separately. EIA-23 reports must include field and location codes for geographical locations in the US, and there is a facility to file reports electronically via the RIGS (Reserves Information Gathering System).


4.5 Other National systems and standards The Standard Measure of Oil and Gas (SMOG) – standardized measure of discounted future net cash flows relating to proved oil and gas reserves, is defined in the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) statement 69, and is a standard used in financial valuations of oil and gas reserves in SEC and other reporting. Outside North America, some of the important classification systems are listed below. In the UK, the Oil Industry accounting committee (www.oiac.co.uk) compiles the Statement of Recommended Practice (SORP), in accordance with the recommendations of and approved by the Accounting Standards Board. In China, standards for reserves classification and disclosure are set by the China Petroleum Reserves Office in their PRO-2005 instrument. In Russia, the RF-2005 document published by the Russian Ministry for Natural Resources, defines petroleum reserves classes and project maturities. In Norway, a Norwegian Petroleum Directorate, July 2001 document (updated in August 2011) gives guidelines with regard to the classification of petroleum resources. 4.6 SOX SOX requires that Management should take steps to ensure that all financial reporting, including future cash flow inflows from the production and sale of oil and gas provides information that the investor can rely on. Arguably, the responsibility for compliant reserves reporting falls upon the Board Audit Committee (identified in SOX). The SOX requirements relevant to Reserves reporting are summarized below. -

There should be an Audit Committee composed of “independent” Board members

-

The audit committee is responsible for appointment, compensation and oversight of registered public accounting - firm to serve as the auditor

-

The audit committee is authorized to hire independent counsel and “other advisors” (such as third party reserves consultants)

-

Commitment to transparent and competent estimation and reporting of proved reserves to SEC standards and to ensuring the independence of estimators-both internal and external

-

SOX requires that Estimators (and auditors) should not be influenced by outcome based incentives.


5 RESERVES RECONCILIATION PROCESS Typically a reserves reconciliation workflow is based on comparing reserves positions at 2 points in time – usually the prior (end of year) reporting period and the current one (this year end, mid-year review, planning point etc.). The following tasks comprise the reserves management workflow: -

Administrative tasks; definition of reserve categories, products and reasons for change.

-

Data loading – move data from the transactional workspace where production and economics data is continuously recorded and updated, into the reserves reconciliation context where the opening and closing balances are static for the reconciliation exercise.

-

Reconciliation or change tracking and recording of change reasons; in the reconciliation context, for each asset, consider the difference between the opening and closing positions, and using the predefined reasons for change, allocate values to the change components.

-

Approval of changes; pass the explained asset change values and reasons through approval levels usually depending on value.

-

Reporting – internal/external; collate the reconciled change values by category and product type into reports formatted for either internal or external consumption.

The process can be summarized in a simple equation:Reserves at the beginning of the reconciliation period (opening balance) plus

Changes to reserves during the year

minus Production during the period =

Reserves at the end of the reconciliation period (closing balance)


An aggregate of assets could have changed as shown schematically in the figure below. Fig 6.1 – Typical reserve value changes for assets


6 PALANTIRRESERVES AS THE SOLUTION PalantirRESERVES eliminates the inconsistencies found in approaches used for booking reserves. It is integrated into the data management product PalantirDATAFLOW which provides it with versioning, audit and work flow support. PalantirRESERVE reserves categories are based on the SPE PRMS. Through a remarkable system based on least common denominated categories, it is possible to define composite categories which exactly match the categories used in different reports – whether it is SEC, NI 51-101, EIA, national or the user company’s defined system. This means a company can use the same data set of booked reserves, with PalantirRESERVES dynamic categorisation system, to generate all the required regulatory and internal reports – one set of data and different calculations. As part of the larger application PalantirDATAFLOW, PalantirRESERVES shares a superior data management platform with data revisions, history, versioning and approval workflows built in. PalantirRESERVES lets a company make up to the minute assessments of its reserves position. Price and economics data (SMOG) is available either from PalantirCASH or via a company’s preferred economic product. There are flexible categories for product type, reserve categories and change reasons, which are defined at the most granular level. By using the same data set, it is possible to reconcile changes and make reports targeted at any of the common reserves reporting systems. There is no need to manually input reserves volumes. Instead, reserves and production data are assessed in an economics engine and then imported into the reserves reconciliation workspace, where they undergo the full reconciliation process. There is also support for importing from worksheet files as well as other production and reserves management systems. After importing the reserves data, a company would then reconcile changes and capture reasons helped by a variety of tools which ensure consistency in assessments across and within reconciliations. Each revision amount and change reason is captured in a change record. The system supports automatic categorization of changes and sorting and filtering to identify where changes have to be made. Change records are routed through an approval process, with built in security and the ability to configure multi-level approvals if required. The in-built workflow engine is used to route the changes to predefined approvers.


There is a full audit trail, and revision history of all changes made and all approvals. When all reserves are reconciled and changes approved, the reports formatted as required by the selected regulatory body targeted by the output are generated.

6.1 Workflow PalantirDATAFLOW

PalantirRESERVES

Scenarios

Reserve categories, Change reasons

Reporting

SEC 10K, 20F

PalantirCASH

Load data

NI‐51‐101

Database

Reconciliation tables with history

Load data

Change records Snapshot – Opening balance, Current reserves position Load data revise

PEEP, Aries, ValNav, Petrolook etc

revise

EIA‐23 Approval table

Security, Permissions

Internal reports

Tagged Revisions Approve

Prices, Differentials, PVs, Energy factors , Op Costs , Capital Costs, Taxes, Royalties G&G/Reservoir Engr/Reserves estimator

Technical Mngt/Ext Auditor

Management/Regulators

6.1.1 Admin tasks -

Update the list of reserve categories to be managed. If necessary display a company specific name and map to standard SPE PRMS / SEC / NI-51 / EIA categories.

-

Update the list of reconciliations.

-

Update the list of product types.

-

Update the list of internal/external approvers, authority levels.


6.1.2 Economic screening -

Export figures to economics package, e.g. PalantirCASH, ARIES

-

Run economics.

-

Import figures into PalantirRESERVES.

6.1.3 Reserves recording – normal data entry

-

meta data tagging against the categories shown in the table ensure that when data is loaded into the reserves reconciliation context, it will be allotted to the right category.

6.1.4 Data loading -

Reserves data is loaded into PalantirRESERVES

-

The opening balance is recorded.

-

Data is updated and edited as required.

-

All changes are tracked, versioned and stored in database.

6.1.5 Reserves reconciliation/approval -

Opening balance is the closing balance for the previous reserves reporting year.

-

For the reserve year under consideration, estimate the production figure.

-

Calculate results and record deltas.

-

From the list of reconciliations, explain the differences. Add a reconciliation reason/code for each change.

-

Submit the reconciled changes to the identified internal approvers and external auditors.

-

Changes are approved and balance is reconciled.

6.1.6 Reserves reporting -

Select the appropriate report to be run (EIA/SEC/NI-51-101 /Ad-hoc).

-

Run the report.


6.2 Screenshots 6.2.1 Maintaining data

6.2.2 Loading data


6.2.3 Reconciling balances

6.2.4 Change records approval


7 APPENDIX 7.1 SEC report format

7.2 SEC report sample from PalantirRESERVES
