Reuters/Ipsos - RealClearPolitics

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May 9, 2011 - POLITICAL TRACKER. 1. Generally ..... IF THEY SAY 'UNSURE/DK', PROMPT: Would you lean toward Obama or towa
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Interview dates: May 5-9, 2011 Interviews: 1,029 adults; 876 registered voters 451 Democrats; 429 Republicans; 149 Independents Margin of Error: +3.0 for all adults; +3.5 for registered voters; +4.6% for Democrats; +4.8 for Republicans; +7.8 for Independents (based on all adults)

Ipsos Poll conducted for Reuters, May 5-9, 2011 NOTE: all results shown are percentages unless otherwise labeled. th

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These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted for Reuters from May 5 – 9 , 2011. For the survey, a nationally representative, randomly selected sample of exactly 1,029 adults aged 18 and older across the United States was interviewed by Ipsos via live telephone interviewing on landlines and cell phones. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate within 3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population in the U.S. been polled. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. These data were weighted to ensure that the sample composition reflects that of the actual U.S. population according to U.S. Census figures. Respondents had the option to be interviewed in English or Spanish. Please note that throughout this document, figures based on Independent voters are indicative only due to very small sample size. Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero but less than one half of a per cent. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding.

POLITICAL TRACKER 1. Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track? ENTER SINGLE RESPONSE. IF UNSURE, ENCOURAGE BEST GUESS. 5/5-9/11 4/7-10/11 3/3-6/11 2/4-7/11 1/7-10/11 12/2-5/10 10/28-31/10 10/7-11/10 9/16-19/10 8/19-22/10 7/22-25/10 6/10-13/10 5/6-9/10 4/1-5/10 2/26-28/10 1/28-31/10 1/7-11/10 12/3-6/09 10/29-11/1/09 10/1-5/09 8/27-31/09 7/30-8/3/09 7/9-13/09 6/4-8/09 4/30-5/3/09 4/2-6/09 3/5-9/09 2/6-9/09

Right Direction 38 25 31 38 36 29 33 31 33 31 34 33 34 40 34 37 39 36 38 40 40 46 40 52 55 45 44 42

Wrong Track 56 69 64 57 59 62 62 63 61 62 60 61 60 54 60 57 55 60 57 56 54 48 54 42 38 48 48 50

(Not Sure) 6 6 5 5 6 9 5 6 5 7 6 6 6 5 6 5 6 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8

2. a. Overall, do you approve, disapprove or have mixed feelings about the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? IF APPROVE/ DISAPPROVE, ASK b. IF MIXED FEELINGS/DK/REF, ASK c b. Is that strongly (approve/disapprove) or somewhat (approve/disapprove)? c. If you had to choose, do you lean more towards approve or disapprove? Lean Still have Lean TOTAL TOTAL Strongly Somewhat toward mixed toward Somewhat Strongly Mean approve approve approval feelings disapproval disapprove disapprove (Not sure) Approve Disapprove Rating 49 47 26 14 9 3 15 7 24 1 4.1 5/5-9/11 46 49 20 12 15 3 12 9 28 1 3.8 4/7-10/11 49 47 23 13 14 3 13 7 26 1 4.0 3/3-6/11 51 46 23 14 14 2 16 5 25 1 4.1 2/4-7/11 50 47 24 13 13 3 15 7 25 * 4.1 1/7-10/11 45 46 23 11 11 6 12 8 26 2 4.0 12/2-5/10 45 51 26 10 9 3 14 6 31 1 3.9 10/28-31/10 43 53 22 10 10 3 14 9 31 1 3.7 10/7-11/10 47 50 24 12 10 2 14 4 31 2 3.9 9/16-19/10 45 52 20 13 12 2 16 7 29 1 3.8 8/19-22/10 48 48 24 12 13 2 12 6 31 1 3.9 7/22-25/10 50 45 23 13 14 4 14 4 26 1 4.1 6/10-13/10 52 43 20 17 15 3 13 4 27 1 4.1 5/6-9/10 51 46 25 16 10 2 14 5 27 1 4.1 4/1-5/10 53 44 25 18 11 2 13 7 25 1 4.2 2/26-28/10 50 46 22 13 14 3 13 6 27 1 4 1/28-31/10 52 45 27 15 11 2 12 5 28 0 4.1 1/7-11/10 49 49 25 12 12 2 15 6 27 1 4 12/3-6/09 53 43 23 17 14 2 14 4 25 1 4.2 10/29-1/1/09 56 40 30 12 14 3 12 5 23 1 4.4 10/1-5/09 56 40 31 16 9 3 8 3 28 1 4.4 8/27-31/09 58 37 32 17 9 4 8 5 24 1 4.5 7/30-8/3/09 57 38 29 17 11 3 11 6 22 1 4.4 7/9-13/09 64 32 40 14 10 3 9 7 16 1 4.9 6/4-8/09 65 31 40 17 8 2 9 3 19 1 4.9 4/30-5/3/09 63 33 35 18 9 4 9 4 20 0 4.7 4/2-6/09 65 29 39 15 10 5 8 5 17 1 4.9 3/5 -9/09 69 26 38 19 13 3 10 4 12 1 5.1 2/6- 9/09

APPROVAL BY PARTY ID

5/5-9/11 4/7-10/11 3/3-6/11 2/4-7/11 1/7-10/11 12/2-5/10 10/28-31/10 10/7-11/10 9/16-19/10 8/19-22/10 7/22-25/10 6/10-13/10 5/6-9/10 4/1-5/10 2/26-28/10 1/28-31/10 1/7-11/10 12/3-6/09 10/29-1/1/09 10/1-5/09 8/27-31/09 7/30-8/3/09 7/9-13/09 6/4-8/09 4/30-5/3/09 4/2-6/09 3/5 -9/09 2/6- 9/09

DEMOCRATS: Approve

DEMOCRATS: Disapprove

INDEPENDENTS: Approve

INDEPENDENTS: Disapprove

REPUBLICANS: Approve

REPUBLICANS: Disapprove

82 73 80 79 77 71 76 70 78 74 76 82 84 84 80 79 81 77 82 86 88 82 84 89 95 91 89 92

15 23 16 19 20 22 22 27 20 24 21 15 14 14 18 19 17 21 15 12 10 15 13 10 4 6 8 6

41 37 37 47 50 42 42 41 47 37 52 47 40 40 54 53 49 41 45 47 54 57 50 58 56 57 58 70

48 53 53 47 45 37 49 48 37 53 41 39 47 50 42 31 46 55 41 41 37 34 36 31 34 21 31 19

17 17 15 18 17 12 13 14 11 11 14 13 18 16 23 19 18 16 21 18 18 24 24 27 29 26 29 34

80 80 82 81 80 83 82 83 87 86 84 84 80 83 75 79 80 81 78 80 78 70 73 67 67 72 66 60

3. When it comes to the following issues, please tell me what grade you would give President Obama for his performance. Let's use the same grades they use in school -- A, B, C, D, or F. [FIRST TIME, READ:] What grade would you give President Obama for his performance when it comes to (INSERT)? [REMAINING TIMES, READ:] How about [INSERT ISSUE]?"

The economy and jobs 5/5-9/2011 ............... 1/7-1/11/2010 ........... 12/3-12/6/09 ............. 7/30-8/3/09 ............... 4/2-6/09 .................... 2/6-9/09 .................... Diplomacy 5/5-9/2011 ............... 1/7-1/11/2010 ............ 12/3-12/6/09 .............. 7/30-8/3/09 ............... 4/2-6/09 .................... 2/6-9/09 .................... Terrorism 5/5-9/2011 ............... 1/7-1/11/2010 ............ 12/3-12/6/09 ............. 7/30-8/3/09 ............... 4/2-6/09 .................... 2/6-9/09 .................... The war in Iraq 5/5-9/2011 ............... 1/7-1/11/2010 ............ 12/3-12/6/09 ............. 7/30-8/3/09 ............... 4/2-6/09 .................... 2/6-9/09 .................... The war in Afghanistan 5/5-9/2011 ............... 1/7-1/11/2010 ............ 12/3-12/6/09 ............. 7/30-8/3/09 ............... 4/2-6/09 .................... 2/6-9/09 .................... Health care 5/5-9/2011 ............... 1/7-1/11/2010 ............ 12/3-12/6/09 .............. 7/30-8/3/09 ............... 4/2-6/09 .................... 2/6-9/09 .................... Education 5/5-9/2011 ............... 1/7-1/11/2010 ............. 12/3-12/6/09 .............. 7/30-8/3/09 ............... 4/2-6/09 .................... 2/6-9/09 ....................

A

B

C

D

F

Not sure

Satisfactory (A/B)

Unsatisfactory (D/F)

10 14 15 21 21 29

25 25 20 26 25 24

24 21 19 17 20 18

15 14 18 13 12 12

26 24 27 21 18 14

1 0 0 2 2 4

34 40 36 47 47 53

41 39 45 34 30 26

24 30 28 32 35 34

26 21 26 25 26 28

21 21 21 21 19 19

11 12 11 10 8 8

13 13 13 9 9 5

4 3 1 2 3 6

51 51 54 57 61 63

25 25 25 19 17 13

31 18 18 23

27 25 24 25

18 21 22 23

10 13 14 12

13 21 18 11

1 2 3 6

59 43 43 48

22 35 32 23

22 26

27 25

21 22

10 9

15 10

5 8

49 50

25 20

18 14 16 23 20 26

22 26 23 26 30 25

27 27 26 24 24 21

15 13 15 11 11 10

16 18 19 12 12 11

2 2 2 4 4 7

41 40 38 49 49 51

30 32 34 23 23 21

16 12 14 20 20 23

24 26 23 25 32 24

29 26 24 27 26 23

14 14 16 11 10 8

15 20 22 11 9 12

2 2 2 6 4 9

40 38 37 45 51 47

29 34 38 22 19 20

19 21 22 23 22 30

21 19 19 21 27 24

19 19 16 18 22 22

12 12 12 11 10 8

28 28 30 25 15 9

1 1 1 2 4 8

40 40 40 44 50 53

40 39 42 36 25 17

21 24 23 26 27 33

26 27 26 26 29 28

26 23 24 23 23 21

13 12 11 12 7 6

11 10 11 8 8 5

3 4 5 5 6 6

47 51 49 52 57 61

24 22 22 20 15 11

Energy independence 5/5-8/2011 ................ 1/7-1/11/2010 ............ 12/3-12/6/09 .............. 7/30-8/3/09 ............... 4/2-6/09 .................... 2/6-9/09 ....................

A

B

C

D

F

Not sure

14 15 18 23 24 28

22 26 23 24 30 29

24 28 26 22 20 21

14 12 13 15 10 7

22 16 16 12 12 8

4 3 4 4 4 7

Satisfactory (A/B)

Unsatisfactory (D/F)

36 41 41 47 54 56

36 28 29 27 22 15

DEFICIT REDUCTION The next question is about economic issues Q4a. As you probably know, the US budget deficit is currently about 1.4 trillion dollars. There are a number of different solutions being discussed for reducing this deficit. These are cutting existing programs, raising taxes, or some combination of the two. Which approach do you think is best?

Cut existing programs Raise taxes Combination of the two Neither (VOL) DK/Ref (VOL)

All 27 9 52 10 2

Democrats 12 15 62 8 3

Republicans 46 3 40 9 1

Independents 19 8 52 18 2

ASK ALL WHO SAID ‘COMBINATION’ AT Q4a Q4b. If you had to choose, which approach do you think is best?

Cut existing programs Raise taxes DK/Ref (VOL)

All 49 41 10

Democrats 37 53 10

Republicans 69 25 6

Independents 51 34 15

All 27 25 5 21 9 10 2

Democrats 12 23 6 33 15 8 3

Republicans 46 28 2 10 3 9 1

Independents 19 26 8 18 8 18 2

Q4a/b. Total

Cut existing programs Mix: more cut than taxes Mix: both Mix: more taxes than cuts Raise taxes Neither (VOL) DK/Ref (VOL)

HEAD-TO-HEADS N = 600 FOR EACH A-I BELOW (RANDOMLY ALLOCATED) Q5. If the 2012 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were Barack Obama, the Democrat, and [INSERT CANDIDATE BELOW AND ROTATE LIST], the Republican, for whom would you vote? IF THEY SAY ‘UNSURE/DK’, PROMPT: Would you lean toward Obama or toward [CANDIDATE]? READ OUT A-I. RANDOMIZE LIST.

Mitt Romney Tim Pawlenty Jon Huntsman Mike Huckabee Sarah Palin Mitch Daniels Newt Gingrich Michelle Bachmann Donald Trump

[Republican candidate] 38 33 30 39 35 33 35 33 30

Barack Obama 51 51 51 51 54 51 53 54 57

Wouldn’t vote (VOL) 2 3 3 1 3 2 2 3 3

None / Other (VOL) 6 7 8 4 5 7 5 5 8

DK / Ref (VOL) 3 6 8 5 2 7 3 5 2

Q6. I know it is a long way away, but putting your own position or who you would vote for aside, do you think President Obama will win reelection in 2012? May 5-9, 2011 Win reelection Not win reelection It Depends / Maybe (VOL) DK / Refused (VOL)

All 45 42 9 4

Democrats 66 20 10 4

Republicans 23 65 8 4

Independents 41 42 10 7

October 28-31, 2010 Win reelection Not win reelection It Depends / Maybe (VOL) DK / Refused (VOL)

All 35 52 8 5

Democrats 55 34 7 5

Republicans 14 75 9 3

Independents 33 42 13 12

DEMOGRAPHICS

1. Are you currently registered to vote at this address, or not? Yes No (Not sure)

79 21 --

2. PARTY IDENTIFICATION a. b. c. d.

Do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican, an Independent or none of these? IF “DEMOCRAT” ASK Qb. IF “REPUBLICAN” ASK Qc. IF “INDEP.” / “NONE ASK Qd. Do you lean strongly or only moderately toward the Democratic Party? Do you lean strongly or only moderately toward the Republican Party? Do your beliefs tend to lean more toward the Democrats or the Republicans? Strongly Democrat Moderately Democrat Lean Democrat Strongly Republican Moderately Republican Lean Republican Independent (No lean) Initial Democrats Total Democrats Initial Republicans Total Republicans

18 11 15 13 10 17 15 29 44 23 40