Review of Pennsylvania Demographic Trends - Pennsylvania Outdoor ...

Review of Pennsylvania Demographic Trends

Bill Elmendorf, Ph.D. Associate Professor Extension Specialist Community and Urban Forestry Penn State Department of Ecosystem Science and Management [email protected]

Acknowledgments

Godbey, G., et al. 2001. The Northeastern United States in the Next Two Decades: Implications for the Northeast Region of the National Park Service. Philadelphia. National Park Service Northeast Region. 220 pp.

John Maurer Pennsylvania State Data Center Penn State Harrisburg

Recreation Studies: Common Demographic Variables Population Growth

Racial/Ethnic Growth Population Density (people/square mile)

Population Movement Urbanization/Land Conversion

Annual Household Income Family Structure Age Gender

Pennsylvania Demographics: Population

Between 2000 and 2010, population grew by 421,325 people- 12, 281, 054 to 12,702,379 . Population grew, but slower than U.S. (3.4% compared to 9.7%).

Outside of Forest County, Pike is fastest growing county (23.9%). By 2030, population is projected to grow to 13,190,400 (7.4%).

Population growth centered in east and south central parts of state. Twenty-nine counties lost population. Twenty-five were in western part of state.

Pennsylvania Demographics: Population Largest County Populations (2010) Philadelphia, Allegheny, Montgomery, Bucks, Delaware, Lancaster, Chester, York, Berks, Westmorland (6,598,000 people or 52% of state’s population).

Greatest Population Growth (2000-2010) Forest, Pike, Monroe, Franklin, Chester, York, Centre, Lehigh, Northampton, Adams. Slowest Growing Counties (2000-2010) Cameron (67th), Elk, Fayette, Beaver, Cambria, McKean, Greene, Armstrong, Warren, Allegheny, Venango (57th).

Pennsylvania Demographics: Population Projected Fastest Growing Counties (2010-2030) Pike (+103%), Susquehanna, Monroe, Forest, Chester, Wayne, Cumberland, Berks, Northampton, York, Adams (+26%).

Projected Slowest Growing Counties (2010-2030) Wyoming, (-26.6%), Warren, Indiana, Elk, Cambria, Beaver, Blair, Clinton, McKean, Venango (-13%).

Pennsylvania Demographics: Population Density Highest population density is in Philadelphia County (11,800 people/square mile). Lowest in in Cameron County (12.83 people/square mile).

Pennsylvania’s population is shifting to townships. Between 2000 and 2010, population of townships grew by 491,050 people for total of 7,098,200.

Pennsylvania Demographics: Ethnic Populations Change in State Ethnic Population (2000 – 2010) Ethnic population grew from 1,958, 599 to 2, 607, 727 (33%). 1:5 Pennsylvanians is in an ethnic group. African American population grew from 1,224, 612 to 1,377,689 (12%). 1:9 Pennsylvanians is African American.

Other ethnic populations including Asian grew from 346, 163 to 572,239 (60%). Growing population of children under five in all ethnic groups compared to declining population of white children under five (-10%).

Pennsylvania Demographics: Ethnic Populations Change in Hispanic Populations (2000 – 2010) Hispanic/Latino grew by 325,572 people to a total of 719,660 (83%). Hispanics are fastest growing ethnic group- 5.7% of population. 1:18 Pennsylvanians are Hispanic. Puerto Ricans are largest Hispanic group with 366,082 people (50%). Mexicans are second with 129,568 people (18%).

Largest Hispanic populations are found in Philadelphia, Lehigh, Berks, and Lancaster counties.

Pennsylvania Demographics: Ethnic Populations Fastest Growing County Hispanic Populations (2000-2010) Forest (597%), Luzerne (479%), Clearfield, Lackawanna, Franklin, Carbon, Schuylkill, Monroe, Fulton, Wyoming, Wayne (124%), Montgomery (124%). Ethnic Population Projections (2010 – 2030) Hispanic will grow 184% and African American will grow 26.6%.

All ethnic populations are projected to grow.

Pennsylvania Demographics: Age

Median U.S. age in 2010 (40.1) compared to (35.75) in 2000. In 2010, there were 1, 959, 307 Pennsylvanians age 65 and over (15.4%). From 2000 to 2030, Pennsylvania is projected to experience a substantial increase in the age groups 19 and under and 65 and over.

Pennsylvania Demographics: Age

Until 2030, Baby Boomers in the 65-75 age range will dominate older people. Baby Boomers will teat retirement as a process rather than a single event. A greater percentage of those over 65 will be female. Elderly females are two and a half times more likely to live alone compared to elderly males. Between 2000 and 2010, percentage of older people living alone increased by 17,251 (3%).

Pennsylvania Demographics: Families

In 2010, fewer people living in traditional “Nuclear Family.” The share of married couples families raising own children declined by 124,004 families (-12%). In 2010, share of single family parent homes raising children increased by 45,520 (+12%).

Pittsburgh Demographics: 2000 – 2010

Population declined by 28,859 people (-9%). African American population declined by 11,040 people (-12%) and is 26% of population. Hispanic population grew by 2,539 people (57%).

Number of people over 65 declined by 12,883 (-23%). Median age declined from 35.5 to 33.2.

Total occupied housing declined by 7,522 units (-5%).

Philadelphia Demographics: 2000 – 2010

Population grew by 8,456 people (1%). First increase since 1950. African American population grew by 6, 015 people (1%) and is 43% of population. Hispanic population grew by 58,683 people (46%).

Number of people over 65 declined by 24,413(-13%). Median age declined from 34.2 to 33.5.

Total occupied housing grew by 9,665 units (2%).

Propositions From National Park Service Study

Population will continue to grow. All ethnic groups are projected to grow (more diversity) producing complex changes. Urbanization and land conversion will continue.

Increased population density will impact provision of recreation.

Propositions From National Park Service Study

The role of women in shaping recreation will change. Aging of the population will continue.

Smaller portion of older people will retire in traditional sense. Family structure will change from traditional “nuclear family.” Economic distance between “haves” and “have-nots” will continue.

Some Data Aggregation Concerns All ethnic (cultural or nationality characteristics) are grouped together (e.g., Puerto Rican, Mexican, Honduras = Hispanic). Ethnic groups can share traits, but also have quite diverse recreation behaviors and desires. Clusters of populations (e.g., large senior facility in block of young families or clusters of ethnic populations) can cause confusion. Anomalies (e.g., construction of correctional facility in Forest County) can cause confusion.

Knowledge about the actual place is important in interpretation and use of data for understanding visitation and recreation behavior.