A PORTRAIT OF CALIFORNIA 2014–2015 | SAN DIEGO METRO AREA CLOSE-UP

A P O R TR A I T OF CA L IFOR N I A 2 0 1 4 – 2 0 1 5

SAN DIEGO

METRO AREA CLOSE-UP San Jose (7.08) San Francisco (6.72)

Oxnard-Thousand Oaks (5.62)

San Diego (5.59)

Sacramento (5.47) Los Angeles (5.44)

Riverside– San Bernardino (4.59) Stockton (4.34)

5.59 HD INDEX

81.7

LIFE EXPECTANCY (years)

5.17

EDUCATION INDEX

$31,684 MEDIAN EARNINGS

The San Diego metropolitan area ranks fourth among the ten most populous metro areas in California in terms of well-being and access to opportunity, as measured by the American Human Development Index. Its human development (HD) Index score of 5.59 out of a possible 10 is right on track with California’s well-being score of 5.39. The San Diego metro area, with a population of 3.1 million, comprises only San Diego County, with its two principal cities of San Diego and Carlsbad. THIS CLOSE-UP IS A COMPANION TO A PORTRAIT OF CALIFORNIA 2014–2015, AVAILABLE AT WWW.MEASUREOFAMERICA.ORG.

Fresno (3.96)

MEASUREO FAMERI C A of the Social Science Research Council

A PORTRAIT OF CALIFORNIA 2014–2015 | SAN DIEGO METRO AREA CLOSE-UP

San Diego Today HOW HAS SAN DIEGO FARED SINCE THE GREAT RECESSION? Like most metro areas across the nation, San Diego saw a decline in well-being and access to opportunity since the start of the Great Recession due mainly to plummeting earnings and a myriad of other economic hardships. Median earnings, or the wages and salaries of the typical worker, fell by almost $3,000 between the pre-Recession period of 2006–2008 to the post-Recession period of 2010–2012, contributing to a decline in human development. All but four of the state’s major metro areas saw a reversal of well-being gains during the Great Recession.

The American Human Development Index The American Human Development (HD) Index for California is a composite measure of well-being and access to opportunity made up of health, education, and earnings indicators. The Index is expressed on a scale from 0 to 10.

Human Developent before and after the Great Recession San Jose

+0.13

San Francisco

+0.10

Los Angeles

+0.08

Bakersfield

–0.01 A Long and Healthy Life is measured using life expectancy at birth, calculated using 2010–2012 mortality data from the California Department of Public Health and A population data from the Long and U.S.Healthy Census Bureau. Life

Access to Knowledge is measured with school enrollment for those ages 3 to 25, and educational degree attainment for those 25 and older, with 2010–2012 data from theAccess AmericantoCommunity Survey,Knowledge U.S. Census Bureau.

A Decent Standard of Living is measured using median earnings of all full- and part-time workers 16 years and older from the American Community U.S. A Survey, Decent Census Bureau, of 2010–2012. Standard Living

I N D I CATOR S

Life expectancy at birth

Educational degree attainment

School enrollment

Median earnings

–0.02 –0.03 –0.04 –0.11 –0.15

+ Health INDEX

Riverside– San Bernardino Sacramento

Fresno

San Diego Oxnard– Thousand Oaks

Stockton

CHANGE IN HD INDEX

+

Education INDEX

+0.05

Income INDEX

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American Human Development INDEX WWW.MEASUR EOFA M ERICA . O R G

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A PORTRAIT OF CALIFORNIA 2014–2015 | SAN DIEGO METRO AREA CLOSE-UP

HUMAN DEVELOPMENT IN SAN DIEGO NEIGHBORHOOD BY NEIGHBORHOOD The San Diego metro area is divided by the U.S. Census Bureau into twenty-two neighborhood clusters, each with a population between one hundred thousand and two hundred thousand residents. The HD Index scores of different neighborhood clusters in the San Diego metro area vary considerably, from 8.49 in the highestscoring neighborhoods, San Diego Northwest/Del Mar Mesa, to less than half that, 4.11, in the lowest-scoring neighborhoods of Chula Vista West and National City. There is a wide range in educational attainment across San Diego’s twenty-two neighborhoods. In Oceanside City and Camp Pendleton, only 57 percent of children and young adults ages three to twenty-four are enrolled in school; in San Diego Northwest/Del Mar Mesa, 87 percent of children and young adults are in school. Graduate or professional degree rates also vary widely; just over 30 percent of adults 25 and older in San Diego City Northwest/Del Mar Mesa have graduate or professional degrees—seven times higher than in Chula Vista West and National City, 4.3 percent. Human Development by Neighborhood Cluster in San Diego

HD INDEX

LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH (years)

LESS THAN HIGH SCHOOL (%)

AT LEAST BACHELOR’S DEGREE (%)

GRADUATE OR PROFESSIONAL DEGREE (%)

SCHOOL ENROLLMENT (%)

MEDIAN EARNINGS (2012 dollars)

CALIFORNIA

5.39

81.2

18.5

30.9

11.3

78.5

30,502

SAN DIEGO METRO AREA

5.59

81.7

14.7

34.1

13.0

75.8

31,684

San Diego City (Northwest/Del Mar Mesa)

8.49

85.4

5.2

63.1

30.4

87.0

53,134

San Diego (Northwest/San Dieguito) & Encinitas Cities

7.99

84.7

5.8

58.2

24.8

86.4

48,651

San Diego (Northeast/Rancho Bernardo) & Poway Cities

7.97

84.5

4.6

53.7

22.7

86.8

50,127

Carlsbad City

7.34

84.8

4.6

48.6

20.0

82.5

41,818

Sweetwater Region & Chula Vista City (East)

6.78

82.5

9.6

38.9

12.1

84.4

42,449

San Diego City (Southwest/Central Coastal)

6.72

84.1

2.6

59.1

25.8

66.3

37,057

San Diego (East Central/Navajo) & La Mesa Cities

6.57

82.0

5.6

43.4

15.7

80.4

38,969

San Diego City (Central/Mira Mesa & University Heights)

6.56

82.6

4.8

55.6

26.5

77.8

33,391

San Diego City (Central/Clairemont & Kearny Mesa)

5.96

80.8

9.9

37.8

13.1

79.1

35,732

San Marcos & Escondido (West) Cities

5.50

83.4

18.0

25.7

7.7

79.5

29,114

Fallbrook, Alpine & Valley Center

5.38

82.3

14.7

27.1

9.0

75.3

30,199

Lakeside, Winter Gardens & Ramona

5.29

79.6

11.8

20.6

6.6

77.8

34,326

Lemon Grove City, La Presa & Spring Valley

5.25

80.4

14.7

23.5

8.3

77.8

31,861

San Diego City (Central/Centre City & Balboa Park)

5.14

79.7

13.2

43.4

16.8

62.1

32,427

El Cajon & Santee Cities

4.68

78.8

16.3

20.4

6.4

74.3

29,992

Vista City

4.51

80.5

25.8

18.1

5.8

74.0

27,351

2.4

75.1

25,647

San Diego City (Southeast/Encanto & Skyline)

4.41

81.6

27.9

14.1

Escondido City (East)

4.36

79.6

27.4

21.6

7.1

75.4

26,011

San Diego City (South/Otay Mesa & South Bay)

4.30

81.8

31.0

14.4

3.8

75.5

24,140

Oceanside City & Camp Pendleton

4.21

80.2

16.0

22.3

7.1

57.0

26,855

San Diego City (Central/Mid City)

4.21

79.7

25.3

22.8

8.1

78.3

22,580

Chula Vista (West) & National City

4.11

80.7

29.0

13.3

4.3

73.5

24,310

Source: Measure of America calculations using California Department of Public Health 2010–2012 mortality data and U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates and American Community Survey 2010–2012.

WWW.MEASUR EOFA M ERICA . O R G

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A PORTRAIT OF CALIFORNIA 2014–2015 | SAN DIEGO METRO AREA CLOSE-UP

Human Development by Neighborhood Cluster

15

Vista

Escondido Carlsbad PAC I F I C O C E A N

5

Encinitas

Del Mar CLEVELAND NATIONAL FOREST

Santee

8

805

San Diego MISSION BAY PARK

La Mesa

HD INDEX 6.82–9.26 5.76–6.81 4.77–5.75 4.00–4.76 Chula Vista

2.14–3.99 Parkland

WWW.MEASUR EOFA M ERICA . O R G

0

5

10 Miles

N

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A PORTRAIT OF CALIFORNIA 2014–2015 | SAN DIEGO METRO AREA CLOSE-UP

HUMAN DEVELOPMENT BY RACE AND ETHNICITY Another lens for understanding access to opportunity is race and ethnicity. San Diego’s Asian Americans, with a score of 7.13, outperform all of the other major racial and ethnic groups in the metro area by a large margin. Latinos rank lowest, with a score of 4.40. This score is far below the California overall average of 5.39. Latinos in San Diego are, however, better off than Latinos in six other major metro areas in the state. Ninety percent of African Americans in San Diego (25 years old and above) have at least a high school diploma. This rate is higher than all other major metro areas save San Jose. However, the African American school enrollment rate is the lowest across all the metro areas, at only 70 percent. The San Diego metro area is less ethnically diverse than most other metro areas in the state. Whites make up nearly half the population, a share that is 20 percent higher than that of California overall. San Diego also has a smaller share of Latino residents than most other major California metro areas, although, at 32 percent, Latinos still comprise nearly one in three San Diegans. No major California metro area has a sufficiently large Native American population to allow for reliable calculations of the HD Index at this level, unfortunately; the HD Index score for Native Americans in the state is 4.51.

Racial and Ethnic Makeup of the San Diego Metro Area

47.9% Whites 32.4% Latinos 10.9% Asian Americans 4.8% African Americans 3.7% Two or More Races or Some Other Race 0.4% Native Americans

San Diego Forecast: The Next Generation Although HD Index scores are a good proxy for potential risks to child well-being, the HD Index uses a set of indicators that chart the life course of adults and are therefore less suited to capturing how the next generation will fare. Additional indicators can help round out the picture. Below are a set of faster-moving indicators that shed light on the overall physical and social conditions children and youth face as they grow up in San Diego today. These factors, which operate “behind the scenes,” affect the degree to which children and teens in San Diego are sheltered from harm, have their fundamental needs met, and are able to build the capabilities required to flourish in the future. Almost half of 3 to 4-year-olds in San Diego are enrolled in preschool, a rate that is slightly above the state average. San Diego children enjoy a higher number of healthy air quality days than children in most other California metro areas. San Diego has the lowest high-school dropout rate of any major California metro area and the third-lowest rate of disconnected youth; its young people are wellpositioned to succeed in the future. Affordable housing, however, is a concern. Only half (50.8 percent) of the population is able to secure affordable housing; high housing costs put tremendous strain on adults and youth leaving home to start their own households and on parents raising children. Overall, though, the future looks bright for children and youth in San Diego. Armed with both the tools to succeed and a generally safe, healthy environment, it is likely that the next generation, assuming they find housing within the metro area, will drive the San Diego HD Index scores higher in the future. WWW.MEASUR EOFA M ERICA . O R G

These indicators track important risks that children and youth are facing as they grow up in San Diego today.

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A PORTRAIT OF CALIFORNIA 2014–2015 | SAN DIEGO METRO AREA CLOSE-UP

Forecast Indicators: The Next Generation

RANKING (BASED ON HD INDEX)

NEWBORNS WITH LOW BIRTH WEIGHT

AIR QUALITY

(% of births less than 5.5 lbs.)

(# of unhealthy days per year)

NO HEALTH INSURANCE (% of residents)

GREEN SPACE (square miles per 100,000 residents)

DISCONNECTED YOUTH

PRESCHOOL ENROLLMENT

HIGH SCHOOL DROPOUT

(% of 3 and 4 year olds)

(% of cohort)

(% 16-24 year olds not working or in school)

1. San Jose 2. San Francisco

58.7

11.1

11.6

60.3

12.9

12.3

3. Oxnard

51.7

10.7

10.4

9.2

11.9

RANKING (BASED ON HD INDEX)

1. San Jose 2. San Francisco

6.9 7.0

8 7

11.9 11.9

26 18

3. Oxnard

6.2

5

16.3

121

4. San Diego

6.5

19

17.3

65

4. San Diego

49.3

5. Sacramento

6.7

35

13.4

80

5. Sacramento

49.2

9.5

14.3

6. Los Angeles

7.1

80

21.4

12

6. Los Angeles

53.6

11.4

14.1

7. Riverside–San Bernardino

6.8

130

20.8

418

7. Riverside–San Bernardino

37.6

11.2

18.2

8. Stockton

7.0

30

17.5

3

8. Stockton

40.7

12.3

21.0

9. Fresno 10. Bakersfield

7.8 7.0

109 100

20.4 20.7

256 242

9. Fresno 10. Bakersfield

38.4 34.9

14.6 16.2

19.4 24.2

Sources: California Department of Public Health, 2010 Birth Records; Environmental Protection Agency Air Quality Index Report 2013; U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey 2010–2012, Table DP03; California Protected Areas Database.

UNEMPLOYMENT RANKING (BASED ON HD INDEX)

(% 16 years old and older)

EARNING UNDER $25,000/YEAR

INCOME INEQUALITY

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey 2010–2012, Table S1401 and analysis of 2010–2012 PUMA microdata; California Department of Education cohort dropout rate.

RANKING (BASED ON HD INDEX)

AFFORDABLE HOUSING (% who spend less than 30% of income on housing)

AVERAGE COMMUTE TIME

VIOLENT CRIMES

(minutes/day)

(per 100,000 residents)

58.5

26

274

55.2

30

551

(% of full-time workers)

(gini)

1. San Jose 2. San Francisco

5.3

13.1

0.47

5.0

13.4

0.49

1. San Jose 2. San Francisco

3. Oxnard

5.9

21.0

0.44

3. Oxnard

53.9

25

198

4. San Diego

5.8

20.4

0.47

4. San Diego

50.9

25

374

5. Sacramento

6.7

17.7

0.45

5. Sacramento

54.7

25

441

6. Los Angeles

7.2

24.8

0.49

6. Los Angeles

48.6

29

393

7. Riverside–San Bernardino

8.0

23.8

0.44

7. Riverside–San Bernardino

51.3

31

369

8. Stockton

10.3

20.0

0.46

8. Stockton

53.2

30

889

9. Fresno 10. Bakersfield

10.5 10.1

29.4 29.0

0.48 0.46

9. Fresno 10. Bakersfield

54.2 57.6

23 24

540 579

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics; U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey 2012, Tables S2001 and B19083.

WWW.MEASUR EOFAM ERICA . O R G

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey 2012, Tables S2503 and S0802; FBI Uniform Crime Reports 2012.

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A PORTRAIT OF CALIFORNIA 2014–2015 | SAN DIEGO METRO AREA CLOSE-UP

Human Development in San Diego at a Glance San Diego in the National Context 80

Human Development in California's Ten Most Populous Metro Areas

5

San Jose (7.08)

5.07

UNITED STATES HD INDEX

5.59

5.39

CALIFORNIA HD INDEX

SAN DIEGO HD INDEX

TOP 5 Neighborhood Clusters

8.49

San Diego City (Northwest/Del Mar Mesa), San Diego County

7.99

San Diego (Northwest/San Dieguito) & Encinitas Cities, San Diego County

7.97

San Diego (Northeast/Rancho Bernardo) & Poway Cities, San Diego County

7.34

Carlsbad City, San Diego County

6.78

Sweetwater Region & Chula Vista City (East), San Diego County

BOTTOM 5 Neighborhood Clusters

4.36

Escondido City (East), San Diego County

4.30

San Diego City (South/Otay Mesa & South Bay), San Diego County

4.21

Oceanside City & Camp Pendleton, San Diego County

4.21

San Diego City (Central/Mid City), San Diego County

4.11

Chula Vista (West) & National City, San Diego County

San Francisco (6.72)

Race/Ethnicity 10

10 (HD INDEX MAXIMUM)

Oxnard–Thousand Oaks (5.62)

Asian Americans 7.13

Whites

San Diego (5.59)

Sacramento (5.47) Los Angeles (5.44)

6.30

African Americans 4.58

Latinos 4.40

Riverside– San Bernardino (4.59) Stockton (4.34)

Fresno (3.96) 0 (HD INDEX MINIMUM)

Bakersfield (3.69)

Measure of America is a nonpartisan project, founded in 2007, of the Social Science Research Council. It creates easy-to-use yet methodologically sound tools for understanding well-being and opportunity in America and stimulates fact-based dialogue about these issues. Through hard copy and online reports, interactive maps, and custom-built dashboards, Measure of America works closely with partners to breathe life into numbers, using data to identify areas of need, pinpoint levers of change, and track progress over time. For policymaker and press inquiries: Eric Henderson, Chief of Advocacy and Media [email protected], (718) 517-3606.

MEASUREOFAMERICA of the Social Science Research Council