SAN FRANCISCO

A PORTRAIT OF CALIFORNIA 2014–2015 | SAN FRANCISCO METRO AREA CLOSE-UP

A P O R TR A I T OF CA L IFOR N I A 2 0 1 4 – 2 0 1 5

SAN FRANCISCO

METRO AREA CLOSE-UP San Jose (7.08)

San Francisco (6.72)

Oxnard–Thousand Oaks (5.62) San Diego (5.59) Sacramento (5.47) Los Angeles (5.44)

Riverside– San Bernardino (4.59) Stockton (4.34)

Fresno (3.96) Bakersfield (3.69)

6.72 HD INDEX

82.5

LIFE EXPECTANCY (years)

6.43

EDUCATION INDEX

$40,956 MEDIAN EARNINGS

The San Francisco–Oakland–Hayward metropolitan statistical area ranks second among the ten most populous metro areas in California in terms of well-being and access to opportunity, as measured by the American Human Development Index. With a score of 6.72, the San Francisco metro area beats both the California and U.S. averages. The San Francisco metro area, with a population of 4.4 million, comprises five counties: Alameda, Contra Costa, San Francisco, San Mateo, and Marin. It contains eleven principal cities: Berkeley, Hayward, Oakland, Pleasanton, Redwood City, San Francisco, San Leandro, San Rafael, San Ramon, South San Francisco, and Walnut Creek. THIS CLOSE-UP IS A COMPANION TO A PORTRAIT OF CALIFORNIA 2014–2015, AVAILABLE AT WWW.MEASUREOFAMERICA.ORG.

MEASUREOFAMERIC A of the Social Science Research Council


San Francisco Today HOW HAS SAN FRANCISCO FARED SINCE THE GREAT RECESSION? San Francisco ranks second on the Human Development Index, as it did before the Great Recession. Further, San Francisco is one of only four major metro areas in California that saw improvements in well-being and access to opportunity—along with San Jose, Los Angeles, and Bakersfield—during a period when cities across the United States saw plummeting earnings and other economic hardships.

The American Human Development Index The American Human Development (HD) Index for California is a composite measure of well-being and access to opportunity made up of health, education, and earnings indicators. The Index is expressed on a scale from 0 to 10.

Human Development before and after the Great Recession San Jose

San Francisco +0.10 Los Angeles

Bakersfield

–0.01 A Long and Healthy Life is measured using life expectancy at birth, calculated using 2010–2012 mortality data from the California Department of Public Health and population data from the A Long and U.S. Healthy Census Bureau. Life

Access to Knowledge is measured with school enrollment for those ages 3 to 24, and educational degree attainment for those 25 and older, with 2010–2012 data from the Access Americanto Community Survey, Knowledge U.S. Census Bureau.

A Decent Standard of Living is measured using median earnings of all full- and part-time workers 16 years and older from the American CommunityASurvey, U.S. Decent Census Bureau, 2010–2012. Standard of Living

I N D I CATOR S

Life expectancy at birth

Educational degree attainment

School enrollment

Median earnings

–0.02 –0.03 –0.04 –0.11 –0.15

+ Health INDEX

+

Education INDEX

+0.13

+0.08 +0.05 Riverside– San Bernardino Sacramento

Fresno

San Diego

Oxnard– Thousand Oaks

Stockton

CHANGE IN HD INDEX

Income INDEX

3

American Human Development INDEX WWW.MEASUR EOFA M ERICA . O R G

2


HUMAN DEVELOPMENT NEIGHBORHOOD BY NEIGHBORHOOD The San Francisco metro area is divided by the U.S. Census Bureau into thirtyfour neighborhood clusters, each with a population between about one hundred thousand and two hundred thousand residents. The HD Index scores of different neighborhood clusters in the San Francisco metro area vary dramatically, from 8.96 in San Ramon and Danville to only 3.18 in South Central Oakland. The disparity in median earnings across neighborhood clusters in San Francisco is striking. The typical worker in San Ramon and Danville earns $73,406, over three times as much as the typical earner in South Central Oakland. The gap in educational attainment between the two clusters may partially explain the significant difference in earnings. While only around 3 percent of San Ramon and Danville residents failed to graduate from high school, one in three residents of South Central Oakland lack a high school diploma. One in every four residents in San Ramon and Danville have a graduate or professional degree. In South Central Oakland, only around one in every twenty-five residents have one. HUMAN DEVELOPMENT BY RACE AND ETHNICITY

Number of Neighborhood Clusters (fully or partially within each metro area) Stockton......................4 Bakersfield..................5 Oxnard– Thousand Oaks............6 Fresno.........................7 San Jose.....................15 Sacramento...............17 San Diego...................22 Riverside– San Bernardino..........30 San Francisco.............34 Los Angeles...............87

Another lens for understanding access to opportunity is race and ethnicity. The gap between the highest- and lowest-scoring groups in San Francisco is comparatively small. Whites, the highest-scoring group, scored 7.65, a little over three points above the lowest-scoring group, African Americans. Latinos perform better in San Francisco than in all other major California metro areas. This is due mostly to high levels of educational attainment and earnings. Latinos in San Francisco have the highest earnings and the highest percentage of both bachelor’s and graduate or professional degrees, compared to Latinos in the other major metro areas in the state. Human Development by Neighborhood Cluster in San Francisco HD INDEX

LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH (years)

LESS THAN HIGH SCHOOL (%)

AT LEAST BACHELOR’S DEGREE (%)

GRADUATE OR PROFESSIONAL DEGREE (%)

SCHOOL ENROLLMENT (%)

MEDIAN EARNINGS (2012 dollars)

CALIFORNIA

5.39

81.2

18.5

30.9

11.3

78.5

30,502

SAN FRANCISCO METRO AREA

6.72

82.5

12.5

44.2

17.3

81.3

40,956

TOP 3 Neighborhood Clusters 1. San Ramon City and Danville Town

8.96

85.0

2.7

63.7

25.7

90.5

73,406

2. Walnut Creek West, Lafayette, Orinda Cities and Moraga Town

8.96

85.3

2.5

68.3

29.9

88.3

61,416

3. Oakland East and Piedmont Cities

8.13

83.0

5.1

64.1

30.9

85.4

53,646

BOTTOM 3 Neighborhood Clusters 32. Bayview and Hunters Point

4.70

80.1

28.6

21.9

5.9

80.6

27,594

33. Richmond Southwest and San Pablo Cities

4.16

78.1

29.5

18.9

7.1

76.5

26,327

34. Oakland City South Central

3.18

76.6

34.7

12.6

3.6

73.9

21,626

Source: Measure of America calculations using California Department of Public Health 2010–2012 mortality data and U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates and American Community Survey 2010–2012.

WWW.MEASUR EOFA M ERICA . O R G

3


Human Development by Neighborhood Cluster

101

GOLDEN GATE NATIONAL RECREATION AREA

San Rafael 580

Walnut Creek Berkeley MOUNT DIABLO STATE PARK

680

PAC I F I C O C E A N

San Francisco

Oakland

San Ramon

San Leandro Pleasanton

South San Francisco Hayward

280

Redwood City

880

HD INDEX HD INDEX

6.82–9.26 6.82–9.26 5.76–6.81 5.76–6.81 4.77–5.75 4.77–5.75 4.00–4.76 4.00–4.76 2.14–3.99 2.14–3.99 Parkland Parkland

WWW.MEASUR EOFA M ERICA . O R G

0

10

20 Miles

N

4


San Francisco has considerable racial and ethnic diversity. It has the secondlargest Asian American population share of any major metro area in the state. The foreign-born population in the San Francisco metro area is also substantial. With almost 30 percent of residents born outside the United States, San Francisco has the third-largest foreign-born population share across the ten major metro areas in California. No major California metro area has a sufficiently large Native American population to allow for reliable calculations of the HD Index at this level, unfortunately; the HD Index score for Native Americans in the state is 4.51.

San Francisco Forecast: The Next Generation

Racial and Ethnic Makeup of the San Francisco Metro Area

42.0% Whites 23.3% Asian Americans 21.8% Latinos

Although HD Index scores are a good proxy for potential risks to child well-being, 7.9% African Americans the HD Index uses a set of indicators that chart the life course of adults and are 4.8% Two or More Races or Some Other Race therefore less suited to capturing how the next generation will fare. Additional 0.2% Native Americans indicators can help round out the picture. Below are a set of faster-moving indicators that shed light on the overall physical and social conditions that children and youth face as they grow up in San Francisco today. These factors, which operate “behind the scenes,” affect the These indicators degree to which children and teens in San Francisco are sheltered from harm, track important have their fundamental needs met, and are able to build the capabilities required to flourish in the future. risks that children San Francisco is tied with Los Angeles for the highest level of income and youth are inequality across a metro area. High levels of income inequality have been linked facing as they to a host of negative outcomes, including uneven public resource access, prolonged poverty, spatial segregation, and increased crime. San Francisco’s violent crime grow up in San rate is the third-highest of the ten major metro areas in the state, behind only Francisco today. Stockton and Bakersfield. The average commute time in the metro area is over thirty minutes, among the longest of the metro areas, suggesting that working parents may have less leisure time to spend with their children. San Francisco has the third-highest high school dropout rate of any major metro area in the state, almost 13 percent. On a more positive note, San Francisco residents enjoy a healthy environment. Only seven days were deemed hazardous to children in terms of air quality in 2013. San Francisco and San Jose also have the lowest percentages of residents without health insurance. The percentage of 3 to 4-year-olds enrolled in preschool, over 60 percent, is the highest across the metro areas. San Francisco also has the lowest unemployment rate of the major metro areas and the second-lowest rate of fulltime workers earning under $25,000 per year. While income inequality, violent crime, and high school completion rates are concerning, overall the future looks bright for children and youth in San Francisco. Armed with both the tools to succeed and a healthy environment, it is likely that the next generation in San Francisco will drive the San Francisco HD Index score higher in the years to come. WWW.MEASUR EOFA M ERICA . O R G

5


Forecast Indicators: The Next Generation

RANKING (BASED ON HD INDEX)

NEWBORNS WITH LOW BIRTH WEIGHT

AIR QUALITY

(% of births less than 5.5 lbs.)

(# of unhealthy days per year)

1. San Jose 2. San Francisco

6.9 7.0

3. Oxnard 4. San Diego

NO HEALTH INSURANCE (% of residents)

GREEN SPACE (square miles per 100,000 residents)

8 7

11.9 11.9

26 18

6.2

5

16.3

121

6.5

19

17.3

56

5. Sacramento

6.7

35

13.4

6. Los Angeles

7.1

80

7. Riverside–San Bernardino

6.8

8. Stockton 9. Fresno 10. Bakersfield

HIGH SCHOOL DROPOUT

(% of 3 and 4 year olds)

(% of cohort)

DISCONNECTED YOUTH (% 16-24 year olds not working or in school)


58.7

11.1

11.6

60.3

12.9

12.3

3. Oxnard

51.7

10.7

10.4

4. San Diego

49.3

9.2

11.9

80

5. Sacramento

49.2

9.5

14.3

21.4

12

6. Los Angeles

53.6

11.4

14.1

130

20.8

418


37.6

11.2

18.2

7.0

30

17.5

3

8. Stockton

40.7

12.3

21.0

7.8 7.0

109 100

20.4 20.7

256 242

9. Fresno 10. Bakersfield

38.4 34.9

14.6 16.2

19.4 24.2

Sources: California Department of Public Health, 2010 Birth Records; Environmental Protection Agency Air Quality Index Report 2013; U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey 2010–2012, Table DP03; California Protected Areas Database.

UNEMPLOYMENT RANKING (BASED ON HD INDEX)


PRESCHOOL ENROLLMENT

(% 16 years old and older)

EARNING UNDER $25,000/YEAR

INCOME INEQUALITY

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey 2010–2012, Table S1401 and analysis of 2010–2012 PUMA microdata; California Department of Education cohort dropout rate.


AFFORDABLE HOUSING (% who spend less than 30% of income on housing)

AVERAGE COMMUTE TIME

VIOLENT CRIMES

(minutes/day)

(per 100,000 residents)

58.5

26

274

55.2

30

551 198

(% of full-time workers)

(gini)


5.3

13.1

0.47

5.0

13.4

0.49

3. Oxnard

5.9

21.0

0.44

3. Oxnard

53.9

25

4. San Diego

5.8

20.4

0.47

4. San Diego

50.9

25

374

5. Sacramento

6.7

17.7

0.45

5. Sacramento

54.7

25

441

6. Los Angeles

7.2

24.8

0.49

6. Los Angeles

48.6

29

393


8.0

23.8

0.44


51.3

31

369

8. Stockton

10.3

20.0

0.46

8. Stockton

53.2

30

889


10.5 10.1

29.4 29.0

0.48 0.46


54.2 57.6

23 24

540 579

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics; U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey 2012, Tables S2001 and B19083.

WWW.MEASUR EOFAM ERICA . O R G


Sources: U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey 2012, Tables S2503 and S0802; FBI Uniform Crime Reports 2012.

6


Human Development in San Francisco at a Glance San Francisco in the National Context

Human Development in California's Ten Most Populous Metro Areas

101

GOLDEN GATE NATIONAL RECREATION AREA

San Rafael 580

Walnut Creek Berkeley MOUNT DIABLO STATE PARK

680

San Francisco

Oakland

San Ramon

San Leandro Pleasanton

South San Francisco Hayward

280

Redwood City

5.07

UNITED STATES HD INDEX

5.39

CALIFORNIA HD INDEX

TOP 5 Neighborhood Clusters

8.96

San Ramon City & Danville Town, Contra Costa County

8.96

Walnut Creek (West), Lafayette, Orinda Cities & Moraga Town, Contra Costa County

8.13

Oakland (East) & Piedmont Cities, Alameda County

8.03

San Mateo (South) & Half Moon Bay Cities, San Mateo County

7.90

San Rafael (South), Mill Valley & Sausalito Cities, Marin County

BOTTOM 5 Neighborhood Clusters

4.86

Pittsburg & Concord (North & East) Cities, Contra Costa County

4.84

Antioch City, Contra Costa County

4.70

Bayview & Hunters Point, San Francisco County

4.16

Richmond (Southwest) & San Pablo Cities, Contra Costa County

3.18

Oakland City (South Central), Alameda County

San Jose (7.08)

880

6.72

SAN FRANCISCO HD INDEX

San Francisco (6.72)

Race/Ethnicity 10 (HD INDEX MAXIMUM)

Whites 7.65

Asian Americans 7.61

Oxnard–Thousand Oaks (5.62) San Diego (5.59) Sacramento (5.47) Los Angeles (5.44)

Latinos 4.90

African Americans 4.58

Riverside– San Bernardino (4.59) Stockton (4.34)

Fresno (3.96) 0 (HD INDEX MINIMUM)

Bakersfield (3.69)

Measure of America is a nonpartisan project, founded in 2007, of the Social Science Research Council. It creates easy-to-use yet methodologically sound tools for understanding well-being and opportunity in America and stimulates fact-based dialogue about these issues. Through hard copy and online reports, interactive maps, and custom-built dashboards, Measure of America works closely with partners to breathe life into numbers, using data to identify areas of need, pinpoint levers of change, and track progress over time. For policymaker and press inquiries: Eric Henderson, Chief of Advocacy and Media [email protected], (718) 517-3606.

MEASUREOFAMERICA of the Social Science Research Council