Scottish emissions targets 2028-2032 - Committee on Climate Change

A wide range of stakeholders who attended our committee meeting and responded to our. Call for Evidence, engaged with us, including through public dialogue, or met with the. Committee bilaterally. In particular we thank those who presented at our committee meeting: David Beeton, Teresa Bray, Alan Hendry, Andy Kerr, ...
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Acknowledgements The Committee would like to thank: A number of organisations for their support, including: the Scottish Government, the Department for Transport and the Scottish Environment Protection Agency. The team that prepared the analysis for this report: This was led by Matthew Bell, Adrian Gault, Mike Thompson and Gemma Holmes and included Owen Bellamy, Taro Hallworth, Mike Hemsley, Jenny Hill, Ewa Kmietowicz, Eric Ling, Stephen Smith, Jack Snape, Indra Thillainathan and Ladislav Tvaruzek. Other members of the Secretariat who contributed to this report: Jo Barrett, Steve Westlake and Stephanie Wildeshaus. A wide range of stakeholders who attended our committee meeting and responded to our Call for Evidence, engaged with us, including through public dialogue, or met with the Committee bilaterally. In particular we thank those who presented at our committee meeting: David Beeton, Teresa Bray, Alan Hendry, Andy Kerr, John Lauder, Elizabeth Leighton, Finlay McCutcheon, Chris Morris, Phil Sheppard, Jan Webb.

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Contents Foreword

4

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The Committee

5

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Executive summary

8

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Chapter 1: Background and introduction

12

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Chapter 2: Latest climate science and international circumstances

15

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Chapter 3: Scotland’s cost-effective path

25

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Chapter 4: Broader economic and social considerations

39

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Chapter 5: Recommendations

46

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Annex 1: Sectoral scenarios

55

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Foreword In the strength of its ambition for reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases which lead to climate change, Scotland is leading the UK. It has legislated an interim target to reduce emissions by 42% in 2020, on 1990 levels. It has committed to a tightening of targets of at least 3% a year after 2020. When we look at what is being achieved, we can also see that progress is being made. Actions are being taken – with most obvious effect in the power sector, but also elsewhere – which are reducing emissions. In 2013 the level of emissions was 38% below 1990. This is a greater reduction than for the UK as a whole and on track to the 2020 target. We will return to make a fuller assessment of this progress in a report later this year. Under the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009, the Committee has now been asked for its advice on the level of Scotland’s targets for the years 2028-2032. We provide our advice in this report, consistent with the requirements of the Act. Our recommendation requires a 61% reduction in Scotland’s emissions, as measured by the Net Scottish Emission Account, by 2030. In line with Scottish ambition, this goes further than the reduction we have recommende