Nov 3, 2017 - Deborah N. Huntzinger, Northern Arizona University. 57. Andrew R. Jacobson .... Jill Engel-Cox, National R
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November 3, 2017
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U.S. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM
Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report
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(SOCCR-2)
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Fourth Order Draft
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Public Comment Period (November 3, 2017, to January 8, 2018) FEDERAL STEERING COMMITTEE Nancy Cavallaro, U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Institute for Food and Agriculture (co-chair, Carbon Cycle Interagency Working Group, and SOCCR-2 Administrative Agency Lead) Zhiliang Zhu, U.S. Geological Survey (co-chair, Carbon Cycle Interagency Working Group) Dan Stover, U.S. Department of Energy Marlen Eve, USDA Agricultural Research Service Noel Gurwick, U.S. Agency for International Development Kathy Hibbard, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Carolyn Olson, USDA Office of the Chief Economist Erica Ombres, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Tom Wirth, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
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SCIENCE LEADS
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LEAD AUTHORS
Richard Birdsey, Woods Hole Research Center Melanie Mayes, Oak Ridge National Laboratory Raymond Najjar, The Pennsylvania State University
Vanessa Bailey, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Lori Bruhwiler, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) David Butman, University of Washington Wei-Jun Cai, University of Delaware Sarah R. Cooley, Ocean Conservancy Grant Domke, U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Forest Service Katja Fennel, Dalhousie University Kevin Robert Gurney, Arizona State University Daniel J. Hayes, University of Maine
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23 Gyami Shrestha, U.S. Carbon Cycle Science Program 24 Office at the U.S. Global Change Research Program, 25 Carbon Cycle Interagency Working Group and 26 University Corporation for Atmospheric Research 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34
FEDERAL LIAISONS Jim Butler, NOAA Eric Kasischke, NASA Elizabeth Larson, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Laura Lorenzoni, NASA Anne Marsh, USDA Forest Service Karina Schafer, National Science Foundation Kathy Tedesco, NOAA
40 Sasha Reed, U.S. Geological Survey 41 Paty Romero-Lankao, National Center for Atmospheric 42 Research
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Alexander N. Hristov, The Pennsylvania State University Deborah N. Huntzinger, Northern Arizona University Andrew R. Jacobson, University of Colorado, Boulder; NOAA Jane M. F. Johnson, USDA Randall Kolka, USDA Forest Service Kate Lajtha, Oregon State University Elizabeth L. Malone, Independent Researcher Peter Marcotullio, City University of New York Maureen I. McCarthy, University of Nevada, Reno Dave McGuire, University of Alaska, Fairbanks
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Anna M. Michalak, Carnegie Institution for Science John B. Miller, NOAA David J. Moore, University of Arizona Elise Pendall, Western Sydney University Stephanie Pincetl, University of California, Los Angeles Vladimir Romanovsky, University of Alaska, Fairbanks Paty Romero-Lankao, National Center for Atmospheric Research
CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS Rose Abramoff, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Javier Alcocer, Proyecto de Investigación en Limnología Tropical, FES Iztacala, UNAM Simone Alin, NOAA Andreas Andersson, Scripps Institution of Oceanography Denis Angers, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Dominique Bachelet, Conservation Biology Institute Ashley Ballantyne, University of Montana Sheel Bansal, USGS Leticia Barbero, NOAA Sourish Basu, University of Colorado, Boulder; NOAA Brian Benscoter, Florida Atlantic University Michele Betsill, Colorado State University Sharon A. Billings, University of Kansas Richard Birdsey, Woods Hole Research Center Timothée Bourgeois, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et l'Environnement Scott Bridgham, University of Oregon Molly E. Brown, University of Maryland Lori Bruhwiler, NOAA David Butman, University of Washington Nancy Cavallaro, USDA Darrel Cerkowniak, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Abhishek Chatterjee, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Mikhail Chester, Arizona State University Rodney Chimner, Michigan Technological University David Clow, USGS Richard T. Conant, Colorado State University Sarah Cooley, Ocean Conservancy John Coulston, USDA Forest Service Felix Creutzig, Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change Joey Crosswell, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Kenneth Davis, The Pennsylvania State University Steven Davis, University of California, Irvine Ben de Jong, El Colegio de la Frontera Sur Daniel deB. Richter, Duke University
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Ted Schuur, Northern Arizona University Carl Trettin, USDA Forest Service Rodrigo Vargas, University of Delaware Tristram West, U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Christopher A. Williams, Clark University Lisamarie Windham-Myers, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Paul del Giorgio, Université du Québec à Montréal Stephen J. Del Grosso, USDA Scott Denning, Colorado State University Yannis G. Dialynas, Georgia Institute of Technology Judith Drexler, USGS John Dunne, NOAA Kenneth H. Dunton, University of Texas, Austin Riley Duren, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory Bassil El Masri, Murray State University Jill Engel-Cox, National Renewable Energy Laboratory Wiley Evans, NOAA Richard A. Feely, NOAA Adrien Finzi, Boston University Joshua B. Fisher, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology Larry Flanagan, University of Lethbridge Guido Franco, California Climate Change Research Center Nancy French, Michigan Technological University Serita Frey, University of New Hampshire Conor Gately, Boston University Christopher Gough, Virginia Commonwealth University Kevin Robert Gurney, Arizona State University Noel Gurwick, U.S. Agency for International Development Bob Haight, USDA Forest Service Jennifer Harden, USGS Jose Martin Hernandez-Ayon, U.A. Baja California Maria Herrmann, The Pennsylvania State University Jeff Hicke, University of Idaho Audra Hinson, Texas A&M University Diana Hogan, USGS Charles S. Hopkinson, University of Georgia Richard A. Houghton, Woods Hole Research Center Jennifer Howard, Conservation International Xinping Hu, Texas A&M University, Corpus Christi Sara Hughes, University of Toronto Nathan Hultman, University of Maryland Deborah N. Huntzinger, Northern Arizona University Lucy R. Hutyra, Boston University
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Andrew R. Jacobson, University of Colorado Boulder; NOAA Maria Janowiak, USDA Forest Service Henry Janzen, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Zackary Johnson, Duke University Jane M. F. Johnson, USDA Kristofer Johnson, USDA Daniel M. Kammen, University of California, Berkeley Evan Kane, Michigan Technological University Rene Kemp, Maastricht University Chris Kennedy, University of Victoria Gretchen Keppel-Aleks, University of Michigan Alan K. Knapp, Colorado State University Sara H. Knox, USGS Ken Krauss, USGS Rob Kreuger, Worcester Polytechnic Institute Kevin Kroeger, USGS Werner A. Kurz, Canadian Forest Service David Lagomasino, NASA Andrew Larsen, National Renewable Energy Laboratory Elisabeth Larson, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Johannes Lehmann, Cornell University Shuguang Leo Liu, USGS Jinxun Liu, USGS Shuguang Liu, USGS Steven Lohrenz, University of Massachusetts, Dartmouth Melissa Lucash, Portland State University Yiqi Luo, Northern Arizona University Loren Lutzenhiser, Portland State University Michelle Mack, Northern Arizona University Elizabeth L. Malone, Independent Researcher Peter Marcotullio, City University of New York Brian McConkey, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Karis McFarlane, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory A. David McGuire, USGS James McMahon, Better Climate Research and Policy Analysis Patrick Megonigal, Smithsonian Environmental Research Center Anna Michalak, Stanford University John B. Miller, NOAA Umakant Mishra, Argonne National Laboratory Mithra Moezzi, Portland State University Sian Mooney, Arizona State University David J. Moore, University of Arizona William Morrow, DOE Frank Muller-Karger, University of South Florida Raymond Najjar, The Pennsylvania State University Ilissa Ocko, Environmental Defense Fund Stephen Ogle, Colorado State University
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Authors 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100
Sara Ohrel, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Scott Ollinger, University of New Hampshire Lesley Ott, NASA Yude Pan, USDA Forest Service David Paré, Natural Resources Canada Diane Pataki, University of Utah May-Linn Paulsen, Scripps Institute of Oceanography Keith Paustian, Colorado State University Fernando Paz Pellat, Colegio de Postgraduados Montecillo Dorothy Peteet, NASA John Phillips, First Americans Land-Grant Consortium Emily Pidgeon, Conservation International Darren Pilcher, NOAA Emily Pindilli, USGS Benjamin L. Preston, RAND Corporation Christopher Potter, NASA Benjamin Poulter, NASA Yves Prairie, Université du Québec à Montréal Beverly Ramsey, Desert Research Institute Peter Raymond, Yale University Sasha Reed, USGS Charles W. Rice, Kansas State University Curtis Richardson, Duke University Lisa Robbins, USGS Adam Rosenblatt, American Association for the Advancement of Science C. Alan Rotz, USDA Benjamin R. K. Runkle, University of Arkansas Joellen Russell, University of Arizona David Sailor, Arizona State University Upendra M. Sainju, USDA Christina Schädel, Northern Arizona University Sean M. Schaeffer, University of Tennessee Karina VR Schäffer, National Science Foundation Joshua Schimel, University of California Elizabeth Shadwick, College of William & Mary Cindy Shaw, Natural Resources Canada Samantha Siedlecki, University of Washington R. Howard Skinner, USDA Margaret Skutsch, Centro de Investigaciones en Geografía Ambiental Carolyn Smyth, Natural Resources Canada Sarah Stackpoole, USGS Nadja Steiner, Fisheries and Oceans Canada Rob Striegl, USGS Adrienne Sutton, NOAA Chris Swanston, USDA Forest Service Yuki Takatsuka, Florida State University Jim Tang, Marine Biological Laboratory Wenwu Tang, University of North Carolina, Charlotte
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Brian Tangen, USGS Pamela Templer, Boston University Katherine Todd-Brown, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Ralph Torrie, Torrie Smith Associates Carl Trettin, USDA Forest Service Daniela Turk, Dalhousie University Maria Tzortziou, City University of New York Penny Vlahos, University of Connecticut Mark Waldrop, USGS
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Anthony Walker, Oak Ridge National Laboratory Zhaohui Aleck Wang, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Elizabeth B. Watson, Drexel University Dave Wear, USDA Forest Service Tristam West, DOE Thea Whitman, University of Wisconsin, Madison Kimberly Wickland, USGS Christopher Woodall, USDA Forest Service Rita Yu, University of Washington
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS David Dokken, U.S. Global Change Research Program Laurel Gutenberg, George Mason University David Reidmiller, U.S. Global Change Research Program
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SOCCR-2 Fourth Order Draft 08-29-17
Front Matter
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Contents
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Preface .......................................................................................................................................................... 6
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I. About this Report ................................................................................................................................... 6
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II. Guide to the Report ............................................................................................................................ 12
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III. Interagency Context of U.S. Carbon Cycle Science ............................................................................ 19
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Executive Summary..................................................................................................................................... 21
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Chapter 1. Overview of the Global Carbon Cycle ....................................................................................... 49
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Chapter 2. The North American Carbon Budget: Past, Present, and Future .............................................. 71
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Chapter 3. Energy Systems ....................................................................................................................... 110
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Chapter 4. Urban....................................................................................................................................... 174
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Chapter 5. Agriculture ............................................................................................................................... 213
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Chapter 6. Social Science Perspectives on Carbon ................................................................................... 252
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Chapter 7. Tribal Lands ............................................................................................................................. 286
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Chapter 8. Observations of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Methane ................................................. 311
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Chapter 9. Forests ..................................................................................................................................... 342
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Chapter 10. State of Carbon in North American Grasslands .................................................................... 380
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Chapter 11. Arctic and Boreal Carbon ...................................................................................................... 413
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Chapter 12. Soils ....................................................................................................................................... 458
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Chapter 13. Terrestrial Wetlands.............................................................................................................. 503
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Chapter 14. Inland Waters ........................................................................................................................ 565
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Chapter 15. Tidal Wetlands and Estuaries ................................................................................................ 594
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Chapter 16. Coastal Oceans and Continental Shelves .............................................................................. 651
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Chapter 17. Consequences of Rising Atmospheric CO2 ............................................................................ 695
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Chapter 18. Carbon Cycle Science in Support of Decision Making ........................................................... 739
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Chapter 19. Future of the North American Carbon Cycle......................................................................... 770
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Appendix A: Selected Carbon Cycle Research Observations and Measurement Programs ..................... 829
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Appendix B: Acronyms, Abbreviations, and Units .................................................................................... 843
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Appendix C: Glossary Terms ..................................................................................................................... 849
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