Kyushu Institute of. Technology. Nanyang Technical. University. San Jose State. University (SJSU). Tsinghua University.
Smallsats by the Numbers 2018
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Overview Introduction Definitions Recent
Events and Trends The Big Picture of Smallsats Commercial Smallsats Government Smallsats Non-Profit and Academic Smallsats CubeSats Outlook
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Introduction What are smallsats?
Smaller satellites of increasing interest; more widely used in recent years
These satellites are generally under 600 kg, although definitions may vary; 600 kg and under reflects the five smallest mass classes defined by the FAA
‘Smallsat’ often used to refer to smaller satellites; smallsats are also referred to as ‘very small satellites’ CubeSats are an established “kit” form of smallsat • •
Use standard 10 cm3 form factor (1U), ~ 1 kg Can combine to form 3U, 6U, 12U, or more Mass Class Name
Kilograms (kg)
Pounds (lbs)
Femto
0.01 – 0.1
0.02 – 0.2
Pico
0.09 – 1
0.19 – 2
Nano
1.1 – 10
3 – 22
Micro
11 – 200
23 – 441
Mini
201 – 600
422 – 1,323
From FAA The Annual Compendium of Commercial Space Transportation: 2018 2
Definitions Smallsat Applications
COMMUNICATIONS
TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT
REMOTE SENSING
MILITARY AND INTELLIGENCE
SCIENTIFIC
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Recent Events and Trends 2012 – 2017
In 2012, smallsats began to see significantly increased usage
Over 1,000 smallsats launched from 2012 to 2017
2017 saw 6x as many as smallsats launched as 2012
Government and commercial sectors are capitalizing on heightened interest in smallsats
Launch vehicle accidents have affected the rate of smallsat deployment Cubesats have dominated the smallsat market; over 700 launched from 2012 through 2017
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Recent Events and Trends 2017 Activity
335 smallsats launched
An Indian PSLV rocket broke the record for the most number of satellites launched simultaneously—104 satellites at once, with 88 of these being Planet’s Dove satellites
87% of smallsats launched were CubeSats
67% of smallsats launched provide commercial services
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The Big Picture of Smallsats All Satellites Launched, 2012 – 2017
Number of Satellites Launched
500 450
Extra Heavy
400
Heavy Large
350
Intermediate
300
Medium
250
Small
200
Mini
150
Micro
100
Nano
50
Pico
Smallsats
Femto
0 2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
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The Big Picture of Smallsats Smallsats Launched, 2012 – 2017 2015 Super Strypi, Falcon 9 launch failures 21 smallsats lost
Launch vehicle accidents have affected rate of smallsat deployment 25
350 20
300 250
15
200 10
150 100
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Number of Launches
Number of Satellites Launched
400
Femto Pico Nano Micro Mini Number of Launches
50 0
0 2012
2014 Antares launch failure 29 smallsats lost
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 2016 Falcon 9 pad accident Smallsat launches delayed into 2017
2017 Soyuz 2.1b launch failure 17 smallsats lost
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The Big Picture of Smallsats Smallsat Applications, 2012 – 2017
Number of Satellites Launched
300 250 Telecomunications
200
Technology Development Military and Intelligence
150
Remote Sensing Scientific
100
Other 50 0 2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Planet represents 52% of all remote sensing smallsats 2012 – 2017 8
The Big Picture of Smallsats Smallsat Operator Type, 2012 – 2017 300
Number of Satellites Launched
250 Academic 200
Commercial Government Civil
150
Government Military Non Profit
100
50
0 2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 9
Commercial Smallsats 2012 – 2017
In the last six years, over 475 commercial smallsats launched
From 2013 to 2014, the total number of smallsats launched by the commercial sector increased almost nine-fold
85% of all commercial smallsats are for remote sensing
65% of all commercial smallsats were manufactured by Planet
US companies have manufactured 90% of commercial smallsats launched 2012 – 2017
Planet and Spire account for more than ¾ of commercial smallsats launched 2012 – 2017
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Commercial Smallsats Smallsats by Application, 2012 – 2017 (sats launched) 1 1 27
495 Commercial Smallsats Launched
36 Communications Development Remote Sensing Scientific Other
430
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Commercial Smallsats Market Share by Manufacturer, Operator, 2012 – 2017 (sats launched)
Manufacturers
78
Operators
Planet
5
4
Planet
66
6
6
Spire Global
16
Sierra Nevada Corporation
71 319
Surrey Satellite Technology Ltd Astro Digital
Spire Global
19
ORBCOMM Orbcomm Orbital Communications
71
Satellogic SA
331
GeoOptic s Other
Other
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Government Smallsats 2012 – 2017
More than 200 government smallsat launched
39% of government smallsats were CubeSats
The USA launched twice as many military smallsats as Russia (based on public sources)
60% of military smallsats used for technology development (based on public sources)
Over 1/3 of civil smallsats launched were from the USA, mostly NASA
45% of civil smallsats were used for development, followed by remote sensing (32%), communications (12%), and scientific (11%)
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Government Smallsats Government Smallsats by Country of Operator, 2012 – 2017 (sats launched) Canada 5 China 20 Europe 19
USA 93
India 5 Japan 9
Other 32 Russia 37
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Government Smallsats Largest Government Smallsat Operators, 2012 – 2017 (sats launched)
Service Type
Civil
Military (based on public sources)
Operator
Number of Smallsats
NASA
31
Roscosmos
10
Smolsat
8
China National Space Administration
5
DoD
31
Los Alamos National Laboratory
12
Russian MoD
11
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Academic and Non-Profit Smallsats 2012 – 2017
The number of academic and non-profit organizations that manufacture smallsats nearly quadrupled between 2012 and 2017
96% of non-profit and academic organizations that have deployed smallsats in the past six years both manufactured and operated them
Over the last six years, 88 non-profit and academic organizations launched smallsats, many deploying only one or two
Over 240 smallsats used for technology development
Almost 3/4 of all development smallsats launched by academic and non-profit organizations were CubeSats
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Academic and Non-Profit Smallsats Smallsat Share by Operator, 2012 – 2017
Non-Profit Operators
8 6 6
The Aerospace Corporation
13
32
34
Academic Operators
56
DFH Satellite Co. Ltd.
Unique Operators
6 4
Breakthrough Starshot
Unique Operators
Other
186
Kyushu Institute of Technology
6
6
6
Nanyang Technical University San Jose State University (SJSU) Tsinghua University (Beijing) University of Colorado at Boulder University of Toronto Other
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CubeSats 2012 – 2017
In total, over 725 CubeSats launched between 2012 and 2017 representing almost 50% of all satellite launches CubeSats launched per year grew from 23 in 2012 to over 290 in 2017
The United States has manufactured the most CubeSats
Over half of all CubeSats launched from 2012 to 2017 provided commercial services
Planet’s Dove CubeSats represent 75% of all commercial CubeSats launched between 2012 and 2017
89% of all CubeSats for academic applications were development satellites
54% of government CubeSats launched for civil purposes
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Outlook What Lies Ahead for Smallsats? Smallsat business ventures will be seeking to prove their business models and generate significant revenue in the next few years
Deployment of future generations of smallsats in many cases depends on this success
Large constellations of smallsats (1,000+ sats) for global broadband are in development by OneWeb, SpaceX, Boeing, others • • •
Dozens of new small launchers in development target smallsats • • •
Required investment for these systems is $ billions Business models are not yet proven Large numbers of sats could have profound effects on manufacturing, launch Virgin Orbit, Rocket Lab, and Vector have announced contracts All three companies are conducting test flights, target operations in 2018 Key business risks: uncertainty about future smallsat deployment, competition from larger vehicles
Large smallsat constellations raise concerns about orbital debris 19
Contact Bryce Space and Technology Corporate Offices 1199 North Fairfax Street, Suite 501 Alexandria, VA 22314 (703) 647-8078
[email protected]
Authors C. Brennan Bok Amy Comeau Anton Dolgopolov Tara Halt Caroline Juang Phil Smith
twitter.com BryceSpaceTech brycetech.com linkedin.com/company/bryce-space-tech
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