DOWNLOAD FROM http://bit.ly/2ds74VE ... knowledge and technology end in a singularity, spike, or an inflected S-curve ..
The Angst of Global Warming ▬ Our Species' Existential Risk William P. Hall President Kororoit Institute Proponents and Supporters Assoc., Inc. - http://kororoit.org
[email protected] http://www.orgs-evolution-knowledge.net
Based on a presentation to the Existentialist Society, Unitarian Church, East Melbourne, Tuesday 6 September 2016 Full presentation updated 21/10/2016 Access my research papers from Google Citations
THIS PRESENTATION IS A HYPERTEXT INTENDED TO BE READ ON THE WEB ― DOWNLOAD FROM http://bit.ly/2ds74VE THE RELATED PRESENTATION ON FACEBOOK IS UNDER CONSTRUCTION Notes: • • •
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Introduction
Where I’m coming from – – – –
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2015: summarizing Application Holy Wars or a New Reformation – a Fugue on the Theory of Knowledge – –
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Physics / natural history / all generations of computers / lifetime spent working with research libraries Evolutionary biology (PhD Harvard 1973) Evolutionary epistemology (1977-1979 Univ. Melbourne Genetics) Theory and practice of organizational knowledge management (Tenix Defence 1990-2007/ANZAC Ship Project) Begun in 2000 - Studying and writing about the history and consequences of the co-evolution of human cognition and technology from our common ancestors with chimpanzees and bonobos
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23 Meetup presentations at Melbourne Uni: Human Origins, Cognitive Technologies, and Futures Began with the questions: How did we get to where we are now? Where are we going? Finished with an open question: Where is it likely to end?
Last year’s Meetup concluded with the question – how is the story of human evolution likely to end? Humanity risks its continued existence in a finite world
Will the exponential growth of human population, knowledge and technology end in a singularity, spike, or an inflected S-curve The first option – infinite growth – is impossible The second option – unsustainable exponential growth followed by a catastrophic climatic/ ecological collapse - is all too likely. This is the path we are on now. The tipping point is not far away if it is not already too late The third option – a sustainable steady state may still be possible to achieve if we act now
Survival will require deep cultural change from individual striving for continuous growth to striving for sustainability.
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This change can only be achieved through individuals working together for the common good
Different kinds of “Singularity”
a point where a given mathematical object is not defined, e.g. a point where the solution of an equation becomes infinite or is discontinuous Maths:
Technology: the hypothetical advent of artificial general intelligence (also known as "strong AI"). –
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Such an artificial general intelligence would theoretically be capable of recursive or cyclical self-improvement to design and build computers or robots better than itself. Repetitions of this cycle would likely result in an exponential runaway effect beyond anything we have seen to date (e.g., an “accelerando”) Such an AI would be beyond human control
“Sublimation”: transformation into/replacement by something no longer recognizably human, e.g., strong AI or “upload” “Spike”: exponential increase in human population overwhelming resource base, followed by a crash or dieoff “Inflection”: a point on a curve at which the curve changes from being concave (concave upward) to convex (concave downward)
Singularities and “spikes”
Damien Broderick used the term in the title of his 1997 book on the impending singularity, “The Spike” – –
To me, the “spike” is an exponential growth curve that has a sharp termination, followed by an equally rapid (or even faster) collapse or die off. We have one world – –
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with finite resources The biosphere is homeostatic to a degree, but Its ecosystems are potentially fragile and may collapse chaotically if too stressed
See Malthusian catastrophe –
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Futurist & writer of sci-fi and pop science To him, the spike referred to all kinds of singularities
People and our tech are the problem
Logistic growth curves in basic population biology
Logistic vs geometric/exponential growth –
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Overshoot and the Malthusian catastrophe (= spike) –
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Biotic potential = potential rate of production We have the cognitive capacity to control production to stay within carrying capacity But the real world isn’t that simple!
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Feedback cycles between different species’ populations and their environments include delays between real world and adaptive responses to the world non-linearity complex, chaotic systems And these are ‘sustainable’ resources
Existential angst: As individuals do we accept climate science’s warnings and act – or will we deny that there is a risk?
The scientific consensus warns that – –
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A number of well funded “deniers” claim –
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Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases cause global temperatures to rise Because of time lags in the climate system temperatures will continue to rise for a decade or more even if anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are stopped immediately Global temperatures may rise to a value where ecological damage and ecosystem collapses may lead to the collapse of human society No warming is occurring If warming is occurring, humans have nothing to do with it The science is wrong and is refuted by …… There is a conspiracy among scientists to scare governments into funding research into climate science or to invest in mitigation to make special interests wealthy Etc…
As individuals, who do we believe and what do we do?
What is existential risk
Risk is the probability or threat of quantifiable damage, injury, liability, loss, or any other negative occurrence that is caused by external or internal vulnerabilities. Many risks may be avoided through preemptive action or remedial action after the fact. An existential risk poses permanent large negative consequences which can never be undone - One where an adverse outcome would either annihilate Earth-originating intelligent life or permanently and drastically curtail its potential. The greatest existential risk to humanity is humanity itself. – – –
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~97% of climate scientists agree that anthropogenic CO2 is warming the planet at an unprecedented and alarming rate. ~3% of “scientists” claim that it isn’t happening; or if it is, that humans have nothing to do with it. If a doctor said you had cancer and needed surgery soon, you'd be wise to get a second opinion. If you went to 30 doctors, and 29 said you need the surgery, but one said you didn’t, would you go with the 29 or the 1?
Assessing risks rationally using the risk assessment matrix – ignore, mitigate or remediate?
Risk analysis is a standard tool used in engineering project management and corporate strategy development – –
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Aims to assess potential for unplanned costs and detriments to project that might engender organizational losses and damage Establish contingencies for remediation, mitigation, or avoid project entirely
Evaluating climate change risks requires understanding scientifically what establishes & regulates climates
One body of informed scientific opinion is concerned that the uncontrolled release of anthropogenically produced CO2 causes potentially catastrophic global warming. Other people deny any relationship between CO2 production and global warming, and further dispute that – – – – – –
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Atmospheric concentration of CO2 is rising Global temperatures are rising Changes in the concentration of greenhouse gases has anything to do with global average temperatures Polar ice is shrinking and melting, allowing more heat to be trapped in the polar oceans Increased global temperatures will have anything but beneficial effects on human health and survival. Etc……
No one person has the breadth of science to deal with the full spectrum of contested issues What claims and sources of knowledge should we trust to use in adjudicating these important and contested issues?
Building a body of tested and trusted knowledge of how the world works (Hall & Nousala 2010; Vines & Hall 2011)
Scientific Consensus
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PART 1 ― WE LIVE ON A FINITE PLANET
WHAT HUMANS DO TO IT HAS CONSEQUENCES 13
Human populations, knowledge, and technology have been growing exponentially History of technology and human population growth
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World population when I was born in August 1939 ~2.3 bn World population now ~ 7.4 bn; increased ~ 3.2 X in my life
Human population growth has been fueled by the burning of fossil fuels
The burning of fossil fuels creates greenhouse gases – –
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Per capita in 1939, ~ 26 x 109 joules x 2.3 x 109 = 59.8 x 1018 joules total Per capita now, ~ 62 x 109 joules x 7.4 x 109 = 458.8 x 1018 joules total World fossil fuel consumption today is ~7.67 times what it was when I was born
The human footprint on planet Earth is a geological scale phenomenon
Based on NOAA satellite observations in 2006
Falchi et al. 2016. The new world atlas of artificial night sky brightness. Science Advances 2(6), e1600377
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Global light pollution measured from 2014 data shows where people are using energy, largely sourced from fossil fuels Conclusion: human impact and energy use currently affects a large fraction of Earth’s land surface
Global scale land clearing is a major geological process in the Amazon Basin and elsewhere Road transport, chainsaws, bulldozers, and fire – all converting fossil fuel and biomass into greenhouse gasses, water vapor, and soot – are used to clear land for short term farming until the leached tropical soils are exhausted Click circle for Google map: Zoom in to see detail. Zoom out and rotate world to see global imprint of human activity
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AIS Real-time satellite tracking of registered vessels: i.e., commercial shipping
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153,000 ships were being tracked when this was snapped All converting petrochemicals into greenhouse gas, water vapor, and soot Conclusion: human activities currently affect much of Earth’s ocean surface: smog trails, commercial depletion of many fisheries, floating islands of plastic, etc.
FlightRadar24: Commercial aviation flights in the air at any one time
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About 9,700 tracked aircraft were in the air when this was snapped All of them convert petrochemicals into greenhouse gas, water vapor, and soot along the length of each flight path
Using a similar database to visualize the contrails and exhaust gases left by commercial avaiation
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Each white spot is a large aircraft in the air. Click the map to observe aircraft movements over a day. See Contrail Science for more information
Global footprint
Humanity’s growing population and affluence has already exceeded the “carrying capacity” of our planet. In 2007 the Global Footprint Network estimated that “humanity uses the equivalent of 1.6 planets to provide the resources we consume and absorb our waste”, or around 1½ years to replace one year’s biological resources we use and to absorb our waste. This does not include: – – – –
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Depletion of critical non-renewable resources for our technologies such as oil, rare elements, etc. Unsustainable use of fertile soil and fresh water Collapse of world fisheries Human induced global warming and climate change leading to ocean acidification, rising sea levels and inundation of prime agricultural lowlands. the impacts our footprint has on possible keystone species, critical for maintaining ecosystem health
Rising extinction rates suggests we are teetering on the edge of ecological collapse
CLIMATE CHANGE DENIERS CLAIM THAT ANTHROPOGENIC CO2 EMISSION IS NOT DELETERIOUS / THE GLOBE IS NOT WARMING ▬ WHAT IF THEY ARE WRONG? 22
Natural selection got us to where we are beginning to destroy the beautiful biosphere that gave birth to us. But, it isn’t the last word. We have the cognitive capacity and technology to inflect our population and technology growth curves to manage a soft landing.
Will we/can we choose to do so?
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PART 2 IS GLOBAL WARMING OUR MOST URGENT EXISTENTIAL RISK? 24
Fort McMurray – worst disaster in Canadian history
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Fort McMurray Fort McMurray, northern Alberta - Canadian oil tar sands mining town, recorded 32.6°C temp, ~5°C above the previous record and 23°C above the longterm average Wildfire began May 1 when the ground is still normally covered with snow ~80,000 people evacuated Some 1,600+ buildings in the town destroyed, insured damage between $5 and $9 billion not counting ~$1 billion to GNP to lost oil production.
15 of the 16 warmest years on record have occurred this century. 2015 was by far the hottest year ever recorded. 2016 may be even hotter European Russia (2010) and Siberia (2012) blasted by similar record high temperatures and catastrophic, long-burning wildfires The Russian fires had worldwide effects as burning peat bogs released huge quantities of carbon dioxide and heavy smoke into the air that accelerate the greenhouse effect and made the air nearly unbreathable. And then there is the deliberate torching of forests and peat in tropical Asia, Africa and South America, and “land clearing” in Australia
North American temperature anomalies at time of Fort McMurray fire catastrophe
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Temperature anomalies as at 3 May, 2016 The temperature anomaly for a place is the positive or negative deviation from a longterm average temp over a stated period of time. Note extreme anomalies in western Canada (Fort McMurray area), in the Arctic Ocean, and north eastern Greenland. To see the state of the world at other times, click map, select: Region, Parameter Mean Temp Anomaly, Year/Month/ day. See also: http://arcticnews.blogspot.com.au/2 016/05/wildfiredanger-increasing.html
Globally, 2015 was by far the hottest YEAR yet recorded The average global temperature across land and ocean surface areas for 2015 was 0.90°C above the 20th century average of 13.9°C Not only was the calendar year 2015 the hottest yet recorded, but also the hottest for ANY 12-month period on record. Also 15 of the 16 warmest years on record have occurred this century. The global annual temperature has increased at an average rate of 0.07°C per decade since 1880 and at an average rate of 0.17°C per decade since 1970. If the graph is indicative, the rate of increase is accelerating!
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NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies - http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/
The average global temperature for August 2016 was the highest for this month ever recorded The area of the Arctic Ocean around Novaya Zemlya is anomalously hot
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The average global temperature for August 2016 was the highest for this month ever recorded (cont.)
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According to the US NOAA, for the 16th consecutive month, the longest such streak in NOAA's 137 years of record keeping, the global land and ocean temperature departure from average was the highest since global temperature records began in 1880. Ref: US NOAA – State of the Climate Global Analysis – August 2016. The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for September 2016 was the second highest for September in the 137-year record, only 0.04°C cooler than the record warmth of September 2015. Ref: US NOAA – State of the Climate Global Analysis – August 2016. A few months after the end of one of the strongest El Niños in at least the past half century, this month ended the 16-month streak of record warm monthly global temperatures. Many of the previous extremes were recorded during El Niño periods. Each El Niño is worse than the last.
But NASA analysis finds September was the warmest month on record by narrow margin
GISTEMP argues that September 2016's temperature was a razorthin 0.004 degrees Celsius warmer than the previous warmest September in 2014. The margin is so narrow those two months are in a statistical tie. (Goddard Institute for Space Studies)
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The months of 2015 and 2016 to date have had the highest avg temps above the 20th Century average
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Fifteen of the 16 highest monthly temperature departures in the record have all occurred since February 2015, with January 2007 (a tie) among the 15 highest temperature
Year-to-date temperature anomalies for 2016 (black line) to what were ultimately the seven warmest years on record: 2015, 2014, 2010, 2013, 2005, 2009, and 1998. Each month along each trace represents the year-to-date average temperature anomaly. In other words, the January value is the January average temperature anomaly, the February value is the average anomaly of both January and February, and so on.
Inconvenient fact: As temperatures spiral out of control, 2016 is already on track to be the hottest year ever Click graphic for animation
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See additional graphics from the Washington Post
The latest extreme temperatures are in part an effect of the current El Niño. As we are entering what appears to be La Niña part of the climate cycle, the rate of temperature increase may slow or even turn negative for a year or so. However, each El Niño tends to be more extreme than the previous one.
Positive feedback cycles in 5 ‘spheres: geo-, atmo-, hydro-, cryo- and bio- that IPCC models neglect
That sinking feeling
See Feedbacks in the Arctic
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Forests are burning around the world! Click articles for complete stories
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Siberian Arctic shorelines south of Novaya Zemlya Island leaking large volumes of greenhouse gases
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PART 3 POLAR ICE MELTING 36
Arctic sea ice is melting at an unprecedented rate
(Ramez Naam 2012. Arctic Sea Ice: What, Why, and What Next. Sci. Am. Guest Blog, Sept. 21, 2012)
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The sea ice cover is one of the key components of the climate system. Modeling results that indicate that global warming could be amplified in the Arctic by a factor of about 3 to 5 times on account of ice-albedo feedback. (http://neptune.gsfc.nasa.gov/csb/index.php?section=234) THIS IS A DANGEROUS POSITIVE FEEDBACK LOOP
Inconvenient fact: 2015 had the fourth lowest minimum extent in the satellite record
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On September 11, 2015, sea ice extent dropped to 4.41 million square kilometers, the fourth lowest minimum in the satellite record, with the Northwest Passage wide open to cruise ships. However, the 2015-16 winter recorded the smallest maximum ice extent yet measured… Also, the ice that remains at the minimum is getting thinner and thinner so it melts all the quicker next year… National Snow and Ice Data Center Arctic Sea Ice News & Analysis
Inconvenient Fact: 2016 Arctic sea ice wintertime MAXIMUM extent hits another record low. Arctic
sea ice reached a record low wintertime maximum extent for the second year in a row (see Slide 17). On March 24, Arctic sea ice peaked at 14.52 x 106 km2 , a new record low winter maximum since records began in 1979. This is slightly smaller than the previous record low 14.54 x x 106 km2 that occurred last year.
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The 13 smallest maximum extents on the satellite record have happened in the last 13 years. (NASA; US National Snow and Ice Data Center)
Inconvenient picture A perspective view of the declining minimum extent and thickness of sea ice covering the Arctic Ocean Annual Min Thickness (1979-2016)
From Zachary Labe http://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-sea-ice-figures/ As the ice cover diminishes, solar heating of the Arctic Ocean increases As the ocean warms, melting of adjacent ice caps and land ice accelerates As can be seen from the map of ice thickness, the ice is thinning even faster than the extent is shrinking.
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Daily variation in arctic sea ice extent in 2016 compared to other record low years (trending towards none)
Zachary Labe: http://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic -sea-ice-extentconcentration/
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After several years of nearly stable extent, Antarctic sea ice is also shrinking significantly
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The last 12 months in the life of the ice cap on the Arctic Ocean shows ice thinning & disintegration US Naval Research Lab Arctic Cap Nowcast / Forecast System (ACNFS) Full Arctic Ocean
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Why the loss of sea ice is so dangerous to global warming
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Sea ice minimizes local warming by reflecting most solar energy away from the ocean. Open water absorbs most of that energy to heat the water and overlying atmosphere
Early April start to Greenland Ice Cap melting season
(US National Snow and Ice Data Center: Greenland Ice Sheet Today) Although extent of melting early in the year was higher than the baseline average, the end of El Nino has slowed the melt compared to previous extremes.
(See Slide 11)
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As at 22/06/2016 Greenland’s three melt surges rivalled the 2012 record: Greenland’s 2016 melt season started fast. It maintained a brisk pace with three extreme spikes in areas of melt through June 19. On June 9, Nuuk, the capital, reached the warmest temperature ever recorded for the month of June anywhere on the island, 24 degrees Celsius (75 degrees Fahrenheit). Melting from April 10 through April 15, from record warm air over the entire ice sheet and rain along the west coast. 10 percent of the ice sheet surface melted on April 11, 5 percent on April 12 and less later. During that melt event, temperatures rose up to 16 degrees Celsius (29 degrees Fahrenheit) above average for this time of year. Positive feedback: Melting increases snow grain size to absorb more energy, fostering further melting. If the Greenland Ice Sheet melts away completely, sea level will rise ~7 meters (Gregory et al. 2004) For the latest news on Arctic warming see http://Arctic News/
Positive forcing of ice melt by soot, dust and algea
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Even though the total surface area where melting takes place, once the cover of fresh snow melts, the low albedo old and dirty ice absorbs more heat and begins to melt a lot faster.
Ash and dust band exposed by snow melt
Since 2003 Greenland has lost ~3.4 tera tons/3400 cubic miles of ice – to raise sea level by ~7.5 cm
Approx 6 m sea-level rise if it all melts!
Monthly changes in the mass of Greenland ice since 2003 based on satellite measurements
Shows the total change in mass of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Data comes from NASA and German Aerospace Center (DLR) GRACE mission. Monthly models are processed after Barletta et al. (2013) to derive ice mass changes
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Areas of mass loss and accumulation
Models for the melting of grounded ice sheets (i.e. the land-based parts of the polar ice caps)
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Deconto & Pollard 2016. Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise. Nature http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nature17145
Much of the land surface of Antarctica (and some of Greenland) is below current sea level
Approx 60 m sea-level rise if all Antarctic ice melts!
New York Times version of map published in deConto & Pollard (2016). Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise. Nature 531, 591–597
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If the entire West Antarctic Ice Sheet melted, this would contribute 4.8 m to global sea level (Because ice below sea level is replaced by the ocean, melting here does not add as much to sea level rise as ice perched enitrely above sea level in the east).
Warm ocean currents melt glacier fronts reaching sea level so grounding line retreats inland. Ice shelves melt from bottom to lose mass. When ice shelves lose mass, inland glaciers march to the sea, accelerating and thinning. Thinning facilitates further retreat of the grounding line, More ice flows to sea every year and sea level rises. (Positive feedback!) (NASA The "Unstable" West Antarctic Ice Sheet: A Primer)
Fresh meltwater floats on denser but warm sea water and freezes quickly in winter to insulate warm water below from icy winds – paradoxically allowing undermining to continue even in winter!
Global sea levels are already rising due to warming oceans and melting ice caps
Sydney, 7 June ‘16 Shoreline retreat will accelerate!
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High quality measurements of (near)-global sea level have been made since late 1992 by satellite altimeters. This data shows a more-or-less steady increase in Global Mean Sea Level around 3.2±0.4 mm/year since 1992 - more than 50% larger than the average value over the 20th century. (CSIRO Sea Level Rise – Historical Sea Level Changes)
PART 4 ANTHROPOGENIC GREENHOUSE GASES Click picture to see a year of CO2 emissions in the Earth’s atmosphere
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Light pollution shows where the people are. This is where most CO2 is emitted
Some definitions relating to atmospheric science and “greenhouse gases”
Greenhouse effect: Determined by physical properties of atmospheric gases and the wavelength of radiant energy - Short wavelength energy (i.e. visible light) not absorbed/reflected by gas - Long wavelenth energy (i.e., infrared) absorbed or reflected to some degree - Reflected/absorbed IR heats planet See Global Warming, Clouds, and Albedo: Feedback Loops -
Atmospheric lifetime: – –
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Simplistically, the atmospheric “lifetime” of a greenhouse gas is the time it takes a pulse of the gas to decay to 0.368 (=1/e) of its original value. CO2’s lifetime is complicated (1) by temporary removal processes which store carbon in the biosphere before it is returned to the atmosphere as CO2 via respiration or, as a combustion product, in fires and (2) by its absorption by and acidification of the oceans. Because the modelled decay curve depends on the model used and the assumptions incorporated therein, it is difficult to specify an exact atmospheric lifetime for CO2. Most IPCC estimates fall in the 100-300-year range. Methane is removed from the atmosphere primarily through oxidation by hydroxyl radicals (OH-), but increased concentration of CH4 reduces the OH- concentration, which, in turn, reduces the rate of methane destruction, effectively lengthening its atmospheric lifetime.
The concentration of CO2 in Earth’s atmosphere has increased markedly since the Industrial Revolution
Based on measurements from ice cores in the Vostok Lake region of the Antarctic Ice Sheet the highest CO2 concentrations reached was 300 PPM that extends back to 415,000 years before the present.
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How much effect does rising CO2 have on the atmosphere
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Rise from 275 ppm to 400 approximately doubles the CO2 greenhouse effect Negative spikes show effects of major volcanic eruptions where reflection of light by dust causes temporary cooling
Methane may soon have even more impact on global warming than CO2 has Although human activities release a lot of methane, huge amounts are stored in temp sensitive icelike hydrates known as clathrates in arctic regions. These reserves are held in arctic permafrost and on shallow continental shelves. As temperatures rise, methane in clathrates turns to gas that escapes to the atmosphere to further increase global warming.
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Because this is a geophysical process depending on temperature and pressure alone, it will be an unstoppable positive feedback process
Current radiative forcing
Radiative forcing is defined as the difference of insolation (energy transported by sunlight) absorbed by the Earth and energy reflected back to space. Radiative forcing is quantified at the tropopause in units of watts per square meter of the Earth's surface. Positive forcing (more trapped incoming energy) warms the system, while negative forcing (more energy escaping) cools it. The graph summarizes the various components of the atmospheric greenhouse. –
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Albedo refers to the percentage of light reflected back to space as light. An albedo of 1 means that 100% of the incoming light is reflected without heating the planet, while an albedo of 0 means that all the light is absorbed and turned to heat. Aerosols refer to dust and tiny droplets of sulfuric acid that reflect light back to space.
Atmospheric methane is rising fast even on an annual basis
Earth System Research Laboratory Global Monitoring Division
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PART 5 METHANE AND METHANE HYDRATES
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CO2 vs methane in the amosphere
Amount more than tripled
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CO2 currently contributes more to global warming than methane. IPCC believes that natural processes remove CO2 from the atmosphere very slowly, with an atmospheric lifetime of centuries Methane has a lifetime of around 12 years in the atmosphere but catastrophic outgassing is possible
Decomposition of methane clathrates may force catastrophic climate change through positive feedback
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See Arctic News: Methane; Methane Hydrates
Potential sources of catastrophic positive feedback for methane
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See Arctic News: Methane; especially How Much Time Is There Left to Act
A very alarming warming trend in the Arctic winter – Is it due to methane outgassing?
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Full year 2015
January 2015
February 2015
March 2015
September 2016 – the Siberian Arctic and adjacent ocean is still too hot
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October 2016 – Siberian Arctic Ocean anomaly 6-11° C above normal for month to date: winter may be worse!
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This year, the average temperature over the Arctic Ocean has been catastrophically high The highest temperature anomaly for the year to date is just north of Novaya Zemlya Island where tundra is observed to be outgassing large volumes of CO2 and methane. Nov 2015 13°; Dec ‘15 11°; Jan ‘16 15°; Feb ’16 15°; Mar ‘16 13°; Apr ‘16 11° On 15 Oct. temp anomaly Novaya Zemlya region was 9° C
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What is the risk to humanity from positive feedback!
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PART 6 DENIAL VS MITIGATING / REMEDIATING EXISTENTIAL RISK 68
Fossil fuel divestment: a $5 trillion challenge A huge financial incentive to deny the problem
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Bloomberg New Energy Finance (2014) explains: Fossil fuels are an enormous asset class. The current value of the 1,469 listed oil and gas firms is $4.65trn; 275 coal firms are worth $233bn. ExxonMobil, the largest oil and gas firm, has a market cap of $425bn. The world’s largest investors … are the key shareholders in fossil fuel companies. BlackRock, the largest investor in oil and gas equities, controls $140bn via just its largest 25 holdings. Governments of many countries, including China, Russia, and India, are strategic investors in public companies as well. Oil and gas companies are too large, and too widely held, for divestment to be easy or fast.
Consciously calculated misrepresentation in science and journalism – e.g:
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We elect these ignorant & willful science deniers to Parliament & Cory Bernardi, Tony Abbott, etc…
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A sample dialog from Facebook’s Climate Change Discussion And then, there are sock puppets (paid ?) to cover rational posts and blogs with piddle, poop and bad smells
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George Brabant Ok . Again.the origonal post is bold face evidence the wrming "alarmist" are spot on. Wake up. all that banter and the original post was never disproven to be blatant eveidence that we are warming just as the climate scientist have explained. Mark Frazer Warming is not evidence of causation Pat Hackett and saying warming is not evidence of causation doesnt stop it for being so....no matter how scared you are or how much you deny or hide from reality. Mark Frazer Go & study cause & effect obviously you practice science fiction Mark Frazer Your intelligence has not improved Pat Hackett It is funny to see one in denial of science advising one who isnt to go and and study Mark Frazer Not denying anything - cite something to prove your point Mark Frazer Thats just an insult because you cant prove your point Mark Frazer Citation please
Pat Hackett Do you assume that correlation is proof that there is no causation.....thats the best you have come up with so far. Mark Frazer Citation please Mark Frazer Waiting Pat Hackett Comment from Marc facer...only an idiot would ask for proof. :-) Do you want me to find that quote? Mark Frazer Prove your claim or run away weasel Pat Hackett strawman. Mark Frazer Cant prove your claim huh - didnt think so Mark Frazer FOS Pat Hackett only an idiot.....:-) Pat Hackett ask Marc Facer Mark Frazer Cant prove your claim huh - didnt think so Mark Frazer Still as stupid as ever - nothing changes with you ….
Heat related ecological collapses are already beginning California forests dying/ burning
Tropical mangrove die off
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Kelp forest die off
Boreal forests & peat burning
Physical reality will inevitably trump belief Physical reality won’t go away because we don’t like it
“The tragedy of the commons” Garrett Hardin 1968. The tragedy of the commons. Science Vol. 162, No 3859, pp. 12431248 –
Sets out the consequences of an uncompromising economic logic governing the harvesting of valuable but limited resources from a commons
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Unfettered individuals make a net profit of +1 for every unit of resource they extract/harvest and use The future loss due to the removal of that unit is shared with all other individuals extracting the resource for a net loss of -1/n It is always to the net economic advantage of every individual to continue extracting the resource until it is totally consumed Situation grows worse if the resource’s unit value rises with scarcity Any individual refraining from extraction only benefits those who thus have more resource to extract
Only through some form of higher level control or governance (e.g., social or despotic) over the scarce resource can its extraction be limited to some socially beneficial level
How urgent is the climate risk?
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Adding the third dimension to the climate change risk matrix
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Where the rate of change is slow compared to generation times of affected organisms, natural selection will lead to genetic adaptation and survival. Where the generation time is long compared to the rate of change, organisms die when changes exceed their physiological limits. When keystone species in ecosystems disappear, complete ecosystems are likely to collapse. Temperatures (and associated extreme weather) are increasing significantly within the life-times of forest trees, reef corals, and large mammalian keystone species. The rapidity of climate change greatly increases the extremities of a wide range of risks that our biosphere faces from global warming
IF THE SCIENTIFIC CONSENSUS IS RIGHT ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING
URGENT ACTION IS REQUIRED IF OUR HUMAN HERITAGE IS TO SURVIVE LONGER THAN A FEW DECADES MORE 77
