Spying Blind - Cryptome

In the United Kingdom: Princeton University Press, 3 Market Place,. Woodstock .... funding the lion's share of this project with great enthusiasm ..... Clarke declared on CNN's Larry King Live.48 ... than hair length is to the Dow. But the point is ...
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Spying Blind N

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Spying Blind The CIA, the FBI, and the Origins of 9/11 N

AMY B. ZEGART

PRINCETON UNIVERSITY PRESS PRINCETON AND OXFORD

Copyright © 2007 by Princeton University Press Published by Princeton University Press, 41 William Street, Princeton, New Jersey 08540 In the United Kingdom: Princeton University Press, 3 Market Place, Woodstock, Oxfordshire OX20 1SY All Rights Reserved Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Zegart, Amy, 1967– Spying blind : the CIA, the FBI, and the origins of 9/11 / Amy B. Zegart. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN: 978-0-691-12021-8 1. Intelligence service—United States. 2. United States. Central Intelligence Agency. 3. United States. Federal Bureau of Investigation. 4. September 11 Terrorist Attacks, 2001. 5. Terrorism—Government policy—United States. I. Title. JK468.I6Z42 2007 973.931——dc22 2006103325 British Library Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available This book has been composed in Palatino Printed on acid-free paper. ∞ press.princeton.edu Printed in the United States of America 1 3 5 7 9 10 8 6 4 2

For my children: Alexander, Jack, and Kate N

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Contents

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Acknowledgments CHAPTER ONE An Organizational View of 9/11

xiii 1

CHAPTER TWO Canaries in the Coal Mine: The Case for Failed Adaptation 15 CHAPTER THREE Crossing an Academic No-Man’s Land: Explaining Failed Adaptation

43

CHAPTER FOUR Fighting Osama One Bureaucrat at a Time: Adaptation Failure in the CIA

61

CHAPTER FIVE Signals Found and Lost: The CIA and 9/11

101

CHAPTER SIX Real Men Don’t Type: Adaptation Failure in the FBI

120

CHAPTER SEVEN Evidence Teams at the Ready: The FBI and 9/11

156

CHAPTER EIGHT The More Things Change . . .

169

APPENDIX Intelligence Reform Catalog Methodology

199

Notes

203

References

273

Index

309

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Tables

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Table 2.1 Islamist Terrorist Attacks and Plots against Americans Known to U.S. Intelligence Officials before September 11, 2001 23–24 Table 2.2 Unclassified U.S. Intelligence and Counterterrorism Studies, 1991–2001

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Table 2.3 Intelligence Focus of All Reform Studies, 1991–2001

32

Table 2.4 Intelligence Focus of Counterterrorism and Law Enforcement Studies versus Others, 1991–2001 Table 2.5 Commonly Identified Organizational Problems in Intelligence, 1991–2001 Table 6.1 Criminal Focus of FBI Presidential Rank Award Winners, 1992–2001

33

39 150

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Figures

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Figure 2.1

Intelligence Focus of Reform Study Recommendations, 1991–2001

30

Figure 2.2

Implementation of Intelligence Reform Recommendations, 1991–2001

36

Figure 4.1

The CIA and 9/11: The Organizational Roots of Failure

64

Figure 5.1a President’s Daily Brief, August 6, 2001

110

Figure 5.1b President’s Daily Brief, August 6, 2001

111

Figure 5.2a Timeline of the CIA’s 11 Missed Opportunities

116

Figure 5.2b Timeline of the CIA’s 11 Missed Opportunities

117

Figure 6.1

The FBI and 9/11: The Organizational Roots of Failure

122

Figure 6.2

Comparison of FBI Presidential Rank Awards, Early versus Late 1990s

151

Figure 7.1a Timeline of the FBI’s 12 Missed Opportunities