st Quarter Luxury Market Report

�st Quarter �� Luxury Market Report

Presented By

BARRY GRAZIANO Branch Manager, Associate RE Broker Chappaqua Brokerage Mobile: 914.469.0053 Office: 914.238.4766 Ext. 222 | Fax: 914-238-5701 Email: [email protected]

HOULIHANLAWRENCE.COM

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY FIRST QUARTER 2016

As we close out the first quarter of 2016, the equity markets have recovered from the unsettling losses experienced at the start of the year. And in fact, things are looking a lot better. The major indexes are around their highest levels of the year. And there are signs the Fed will keep interest rates low for much longer than many had expected just a few months ago. But make no mistake. The stock market may have come back from the worst five-day start to a year on record, but the impact of that sharp drop has had a clear psychological impact on luxury buyers. They are still getting their bearings after the roller coaster ride of the quarter. Today’s savvy sellers need to be realistic about what it will take to get the serious buyers to commit to a sale in the current environment. That will almost always mean allowing for more time to get deals done. We’ve seen days on market skyrocket by 25 percent. It will also often mean re-setting expectations when it comes to a pricing strategy that will make a property stand out from the competition. The choices for buyers are increasing at an accelerating pace. Westchester County inventory priced $2M+ has surged by 29 percent this year. That adds to 19 percent gains the previous year. At the higher end ($5M+) inventory has swelled by a third compared to the same period of last year. In Greenwich, the $10M+ or higher category has seen a nearly 40 percent increase. To put that in perspective, that is about 10 years of inventory. On the flipside, across the board, we have seen a drop in pending home sales. That tells us that the number of buyers for all these luxury homes is decreasing. Supply exceeds demand, and the gap is on track to continue to widen. Most notably, buyers are aware of their advantage, and are becoming increasingly demanding and value-oriented. Strategy is everything in this market. Luxury buyers are looking for just that: luxury. But value is relative, and is dependent on the other properties on the market. We’re on top of the trends, and ready to give our clients the exclusive information and guidance needed to make the right decisions in this market.

Sincerely,

Anthony Cutugno Senior Vice President Director of Private Brokerage

LUXURY MARKET REPORT 1st QUARTER 2016

Westchester County homes sales and total dollar volume are down in Q1, and average days on market increased 26% The number of homes sold in Greenwich rose by 42%, as the median sale price declined In Putnam and Dutchess counties, luxury home sales increased by 50% and days on market rose 42%

WESTCHESTER COUNTY LUXURY HOME SALES | $2M AND HIGHER Q1 2016

Q1 2015

% CHANGE

FULL YEAR 2015

FULL YEAR 2014

% CHANGE

48

57

-15.8%

326

334

-2.4%

$149,811,698

$172,285,138

-13.0%

$1,002,546,087

$1,040,787,821

-3.7%

$2,637,500

$2,750,000

-4.1%

$2,626,250

$2,650,000

-0.9%

$560

$580

-3.4%

$572

$570

0.4%

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

165

131

26.0%

128

114

12.3%

% SALE PRICE TO LIST PRICE

94.7%

94.3%

0.4%

94.7%

95.2%

-0.5%

HOMES SOLD TOTAL DOLLAR VOLUME MEDIAN SALE PRICE AVERAGE PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT

GREENWICH, CT LUXURY HOME SALES | $3M AND HIGHER Q1 2016

Q1 2015

% CHANGE

FULL YEAR 2015

FULL YEAR 2014

% CHANGE

27

19

42.1%

158

166

-4.8%

$137,497,600

$130,862,500

5.1%

$783,600,492

$979,610,526

-20.0%

$4,075,000

$5,100,000

-20.1%

$4,200,000

$4,250,000

-1.2%

AVERAGE PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT

$770

$812

-5.2%

$729

$837

-12.9%


280

228

22.8%

238

236

0.8%


90.8%

92.8%

-2.2%

94.0%

92.8%

1.3%

UNITS SOLD TOTAL DOLLAR VOLUME MEDIAN SALE PRICE

PUTNAM AND DUTCHESS COUNTY LUXURY HOME SALES | $1M AND HIGHER Q1 2016

Q1 2015

% CHANGE

FULL YEAR 2015

FULL YEAR 2014

% CHANGE

9

6

50.0%

40

40

0.0%

TOTAL DOLLAR VOLUME

$15,075,000

$8,375,000

80.0%

$72,168,400

$68,585,500

5.2%

MEDIAN SALE PRICE

$1,450,000

$1,212,500

19.6%

$1,622,500

$1,425,000

13.9%

AVERAGE PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT

$439

$367

19.6%

$456

$396

15.2%


264

186

41.9%

279

272

2.6%


88.1%

92.3%

-4.6%

89.1%

82.6%

7.9%

HOMES SOLD

Source: Hudson Gateway Multiple Listing Service, Mid-Hudson Multiple Listing Service and Greenwich Multiple Listing Service.

LUXURY MARKET REPORT 1st QUARTER 2016

Test

Two additional homes in the $5M to $9.99M price range sold this quarter, posting a sizable percentage gain, while sales from $2M to $4.99M declined In Greenwich, the $3M to $4.99M price range doubled the number of sales and contributed to the 42% increase in homes sold Putnam and Dutchess counties saw positive gains at all luxury price points

WESTCHESTER COUNTY LUXURY HOME SALES Q1 2016

Q1 2015

% CHANGE

FULL YEAR 2015

FULL YEAR 2014

% CHANGE

$2,000,000 - $2,999,999

33

38

-13%

218

231

-5%

$3,000,000 - $4,999,999

9

15

-40%

81

77

5%

$5,000,000 - $9,999,999

6

4

50%

27

23

17%

$10,000,000 and up

0

0

Not Valid

0

3

-100%

Q1 2016

Q1 2015

% CHANGE

FULL YEAR 2015

FULL YEAR 2014

% CHANGE

$3,000,000 - $3,999,999

13

6

116%

69

72

-4%

$4,000,000 - $4,999,999

5

3

66%

35

32

9%

$5,000,000 - $9,999,999

7

8

-12%

49

47

4%

$10,000,000 and up

2

2

0%

5

15

-66%

GREENWICH, CT LUXURY HOME SALES

PUTNAM AND DUTCHESS COUNTY LUXURY HOME SALES Q1 2016

Q1 2015

% CHANGE

FULL YEAR 2015

FULL YEAR 2014

% CHANGE

$1,000,000 - $1,999,999

7

5

40%

29

29

0%

$2,000,000 and up

2

1

100%

11

11

0%

Source: Hudson Gateway Multiple Listing Service, Mid-Hudson Multiple Listing Service and Greenwich Multiple Listing Service

LUXURY MARKET REPORT 1st QUARTER 2016 TOP LUXURY MARKETS The highest sale of the quarter was located in Briarcliff Manor and sold for $9M In Westchester, Rye and Scarsdale had the highest number of luxury sales in Q1, followed by Harrison and Mamaroneck The majority of luxury sales in the Greenwich area, and the highest sale of the quarter, were located in Greenwich

WESTCHESTER COUNTY LUXURY HOME SALES | $2M AND HIGHER SCHOOL DISTRICT

# OF SALES

MEDIAN LUXURY SALE PRICE

HIGHEST SALE PRICE

RYE CITY

10

$2,730,000

$5,672,500

SCARSDALE

10

$2,507,500

$5,850,000

HARRISON

7

$2,950,200

$3,600,000

MAMARONECK

5

$2,558,000

$2,925,000

KATONAH-LEWISBORO

4

$2,512,500

$7,100,000

# OF SALES


HIGHEST SALE PRICE

GREENWICH

19

$4,400,000

$14,000,000

RIVERSIDE

4

$3,543,750

$4,075,000

OLD GREENWICH

4

$3,535,000

$4,825,000

COS COB

0

$0

$0

GREENWICH, CT LUXURY HOME SALES | $3M AND HIGHER TOWN/CITY

PUTNAM AND DUTCHESS COUNTY LUXURY HOME SALES | $1M AND HIGHER SCHOOL DISTRICT/CITY/TOWN

# OF SALES


HIGHEST SALE PRICE

HALDANE

3

$1,450,000

$1,450,000

DOVER

2

$1,650,000

$2,000,000

NORTH SALEM

1

$3,500,000

$3,500,000

PUTNAM VALLEY

1

$1,300,000

$1,300,000

AMENIA

1

$1,575,000

$1,575,000

WASHINGTON

1

$1,400,000

$1,400,000

Source: Hudson Gateway Multiple Listing Service, Mid-Hudson Multiple Listing Service and Greenwich Multiple Listing Service

LUXURY MARKET REPORT 1st QUARTER 2016 SUPPLY/DEMAND SNAPSHOT SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER COUNTY LUXURY HOME SALES | $2M AND HIGHER AS OF MARCH 31, 2016 PRICE RANGE

SUPPLY: ACTIVE LISTINGS

DEMAND: PENDING SALES

AS OF MARCH 31, 2015 SUPPLY/ DEMAND RATIO*



2016 vs. 2015 SUPPLY/ DEMAND RATIO*

% CHANGE IN LISTINGS

% CHANGE IN PENDINGS

$2,000,000 - $2,999,999

194

52

4

152

51

3

27.6%

2.0%

$3,000,000 - $4,999,999

153

17

9

101

23

4

51.5%

-26.1%

$5,000,000 - $9,999,999

53

2

27

36

5

7

47.2%

-60.0%

$10,000,000 and up

9

0

Not Valid

6

2

3

50.0%

-100.0%

NORTHERN WESTCHESTER COUNTY LUXURY HOME SALES | $2M AND HIGHER AS OF MARCH 31, 2016 PRICE RANGE









$2,000,000 - $2,999,999

75

10

8

75

7

11

0.0%

42.9%

$3,000,000 - $4,999,999

49

2

25

42

1

42

16.7%

100.0%

$5,000,000 - $9,999,999

30

1

30

25

0

Not Valid

20.0%

0.0%

$10,000,000 and up

8

0

Not Valid

7

0

Not Valid

14.3%

0.0%

GREENWICH, CT LUXURY HOME SALES | $3M AND HIGHER AS OF MARCH 31, 2016 PRICE RANGE









$3,000,000 - $3,999,999

110

15

7

76

15

5

44.7%

0.0%

$4,000,000 - $4,999,999

61

9

7

51

9

6

19.6%

0.0%

$5,000,000 - $9,999,999

134

6

22

106

13

8

26.4%

-53.8%

$10,000,000 and up

49

4

12

38

1

38

28.9%

300.0%

PUTNAM COUNTY LUXURY HOME SALES | $1M AND HIGHER AS OF MARCH 31, 2016 PRICE RANGE









$1,000,000 - $1,999,999

8

1

8

12

0

Not Valid

-33.3%

0.0%

$2,000,000 and up

4

1

4

9

0

Not Valid

-55.6%

0.0%

DUTCHESS COUNTY LUXURY HOME SALES | $1 AND HIGHER AS OF MARCH 31, 2016 PRICE RANGE









$1,000,000 - $1,999,999

10

0

Not Valid

14

3

5

-28.6%

-100.0%

$2,000,000 and up

14

1

14

20

0

Not Valid

-30.0%

0.0%

*Supply Demand Ratio Key 1-4: High Demand 5-6: Balanced 7-9: Low Demand 10+: Very Low Demand

Source: Hudson Gateway Multiple Listing Service, Mid-Hudson Multiple Listing Service and Greenwich Multiple Listing Service.

LUXURY MARKET REPORT 1st QUARTER 2016 TEN-YEAR MARKET HISTORY WESTCHESTER COUNTY LUXURY HOME SALES | $2M AND HIGHER

GREENWICH, CT LUXURY HOME SALES | $3M AND HIGHER

Source: Hudson Gateway, Mid-Hudson and Greenwich Multiple Listing Service.

*2016 homes sold are annualized based on actual sales year-to-date.

LUXURY MARKET REPORT 1st QUARTER 2016 TEN-YEAR MARKET HISTORY PUTNAM COUNTY LUXURY HOME SALES | $1M AND HIGHER

DUTCHESS COUNTY LUXURY HOME SALES | $1 AND HIGHER

Source: Hudson Gateway, Mid-Hudson and Greenwich Multiple Listing Service.

*2016 homes sold are annualized based on actual sales year-to-date.

LUXURY MARKET REPORT �st QUARTER ��

A SELECTION OF OUR RECENT LUXURY OFFERINGS GREATEST ESTATES

13-Acre Estate, Greenwich

Classic Revival, Bronxville

Milton Point Masterpiece, Rye

WEB# MR1328310 | $22,000,000 Greenwich Brokerage 203.869.0700

WEB# MR1323929 | $7,295,000 Bronxville Brokerage 914.337.0400

WEB# MR1288950 | $7,495,000 Rye Brokerage 914.967.7680

WATERFRONT PROPERTIES

Waterfront Sanctuary, Riverside

Waterfall House, Rhinebeck

Seven Oaks, Mamaroneck


WEB# MR1167846 | $8,995,000 Millbrook Brokerage 845.677.6161

WEB# MR1327501 | $3,499,000 Larchmont Brokerage 914.833.0420

MODERN ELEGANCE

Waterside New Build, Riverside

Impeccable Grace Church, Rye

Stone Hill, Pound Ridge

WEB# MR1324731 | $10,500,000 Riverside Brokerage 203.698.1234


WEB# MR1324925 | $3,950,000 Bedford/Pound Ridge Brokerage 914.234.9099

LUXURY MARKET REPORT �st QUARTER ��

A SELECTION OF OUR RECENT LUXURY OFFERINGS COUNTRY RETREATS

Lakeview Stone Georgian, Greenwich Renowned 14 Acre Estate, Katonah WEB# MR1297601 | $8,995,000 Greenwich Brokerage 203.869.0700


High Ridge, Pound Ridge WEB# MR1323902 | $2,600,000 Bedford/Pound Ridge Brokerage 914.234.9099

DOWNTOWN CLASSIC

Harbor House, Cos Cob

The Fordyce Cottage, Larchmont

Argyle Elegance, Bronxville


WEB# MR1297047 | $4,999,000 Larchmont Brokerage 914.833.0420

WEB# MR1291880 | $4,900,000 Bronxville Brokerage 914.337.0400

SIMPLY CHIC

Refined Sophistication, Greenwich

Pine Brook, Bedford

Sterling Ridge, Harrison




HOULIHAN LAWRENCE PRIVATE BROKERAGE Designed expressly for our region's most exceptional properties, Houlihan Lawrence Private Brokerage offers discreet advisory and brokerage services to our valued luxury clients. Since its inception in 1990, our exclusive luxury program directed by Senior Vice President, Anthony P. Cutugno has earned a reputation for personalized boutique-style service and nuanced marketing that best serves the interests of our clientele. Known for our prudence and reliability, Houlihan Lawrence has worked with many of the area's most prominent families, charitable trusts, banks and estate trustees in facilitating the sale of the region's most prestigious properties. Based on the private banking model, Tony is personally involved in every transaction offering invaluable insight and advice honed by decades of experience in international trade and luxury real estate. What sets Private Brokerage apart is our ability to leverage Houlihan Lawrence's vast resources and impressive global partners to successfully position a property within the international marketplace. With a reach that extends to 6 continents, Houlihan Lawrence Private Brokerage understands the world of luxury and has cultivated relationships with international partners and high net-worth clients across the globe. These world-class connections supported by the personal oversight of Tony and his Private Brokerage team create a powerful combination that drives results year-after-year.

914.234.0308

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