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Technology, Media & Telecommunications Predictions 2015 Middle East

Contents

Foreword3 Technology5

The Internet of Things really is things, not people6



Drones: high-profile and niche13



3D printing is a revolution: just not the revolution you think17



Smartphone batteries: better but no breakthrough22



Nanosats take off, but they don’t take over27



Data opens up in the GCC30



Smart cities…not just the sum of its parts38



The re-enterprization of IT45

Media55

Digital Islamic Services: set for take off56



Short form video: a future, but not the future, of television62



The ‘generation that won’t spend’ is spending a lot on media content68



Print is alive and well – at least for books75

Telecommunications79

One billion smartphone upgrades80



Mobile government: a new mode of public engagement 88



The connectivity chasms deepen: the growing gap in broadband speeds94



Contactless mobile payments (finally) gain momentum100

Endnotes104 Recent Deloitte thought leadership135 Deloitte in the Middle East136

Foreword Welcome to the 2015 edition of Deloitte’s predictions for the technology, media and telecommunications (TMT) sectors. Our objective with this report is to analyze the key market developments over the next 12-18 months. Our points of view are built around hundreds of meetings with industry executives and commentators from around the world, as well as our proprietary programs of research with tens of thousands of consumers worldwide. While the Global Predictions are currently in their 14th edition, this year for the 3rd time, Deloitte has launched a version of the predictions with specific relevance to the Middle East region. Our endeavor is to provide a considered point of view on key industry trends. In some cases we seek to identify the drivers behind major inflection points and milestones, such as the first billion-unit year for the smartphone sector, the take-off of contactless mobile payments or Digital Islamic Services. In others our intent is to explain why we are not expecting fundamental change, such as in the use of drones for home deliveries, or in smartphone battery technology or the deployment of miniature satellites, known as nanosats. We also consider it critical to examine sub-trends. For instance, broadband speeds are, on average, increasing at a double-digit pace, but in many markets the average is being lifted by significant performance improvements among the fastest connections, while slower connections remain sluggish. There are few other industries as ‘mercurial’ as TMT. It delivers constant, significant change, with the decades of sustained processor power and connectivity speed increases being the best examples. These changes can provoke massive disruption, but can also strengthen existing industries. And this is where predicting gets really interesting.

Arguably the bigger challenge in making predictions about the TMT sector is not about forecasting what technologies will emerge or be enhanced, but in how they will be adopted. Music has gone digital, but consumer demand for physical books remains robust, with millenials at the vanguard. Indeed 18-34 year olds, counter to some perceptions, remain significant consumers of media content. Technological advance has enabled smart cities, but the soft infrastructure required is not yet in place. 3D printing offers a factory in every home, yet it is enterprise that is driving spend. The Internet of Things (IoT) offers us the capability to remote control multiple aspects of our lives from our smartphones, but we expect companies to reap most of its value in 2015. We woul