Technology, Media & Telecommunications Predictions 2016 - Deloitte

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Technology, Media & Telecommunications Predictions 2016

Contents

Foreword

1

Technology

3

Women in IT jobs: it is about education, but it is also about more than just education

4

Trailing millennials are the pro-PC, not the post-PC, generation

8



Touch commerce: the mobile online checkout gets an express lane

12

Graphene: research now, reap next decade

14

Cognitive technologies enhance enterprise software

17

Media

21



Virtual reality: a billion dollar niche

22



Mobile games: leading, but less lucrative

26



Mobile ad-blockers: saved by the app?

28



The award for stable box office revenues in the face of digital media goes to…

30



US TV: erosion, not implosion

35



European football scores $30 billion

39



eSports: bigger and smaller than you think

42

Telecommunications

45



The dawn of the Gigabit Internet age: every bit counts

46



Used smartphones: the $17 billion market you may never have heard of

50



The rise of the data exclusive

53



VoLTE/VoWiFi: capacity, reach and capability

57



Photo sharing: trillions and rising

59

Endnotes

62

Recent Deloitte thought leadership

78

Contacts at Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited (DTTL) and its member firms

79

Foreword Welcome to the fifteenth edition of Predictions for the Technology, Media and Telecommunications (TMT) sectors. The last 15 years have been a golden era for innovation: multiple TMT products and services that we now take for granted were niche or non-existent back then. In 2002, homes typically had dial-up Internet access, boxy television sets, wired speakers, standalone digital cameras, shopping catalogues and fixed line telephones. Photos were stored in albums and shelves bulged with CDs and DVDs; LPs had been banished to the attic or sold off. ‘Candy bar’ shaped mobile phones had monochrome screens and were predominantly used to make calls and exchange text messages. Instant messaging, e-mail, e-commerce, maps, search engines, photos, videos and other online services that are now routinely accessed via smartphones were predominantly PC-based at the start of 2002. 3G networks had only just launched commercially, offering speeds of a few hundred kilobits per second. As most homes still had dial-up Internet, it was faster for most people to visit a video rental store, return home, watch the film, and then return it rather than to wait for a file to download. Over the last 15 years, connectivity has become steadily faster, enabling many new categories of service to become mainstream, including a number of current staple applications: search engines, social networks, video-on-demand, e- and m-commerce, app stores and online video games. These new services have driven the growing appeal of digital devices; smartphones and tablets being the two standout devices to have emerged over the period. These new device types have tended to complement rather than usurp existing products. While the past 15 years has witnessed startling change, it has also seen remarkable continuity. Broadcast television, radio, cinema, live entertainment, printed books and in-person meetings remain popular despite multiple digitallyenabled alternatives. 2016 promises to be yet another exciting year for the TMT sector. In this year’s edition we look at a fascinating array of