Texas Economic Indicators - Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

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Jul 20, 2015 - Index ticked up in May for the second consecutive month. ... index. The Texas stock index turned down, wh
Texas Economic Indicators

DALLASFED

FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF DALLAS • JULY 20, 2015

Summary



The Texas economy grew moderately, with employment expanding at a 1.8 percent annual rate in June. Existing-home sales inched up in June, while housing starts and exports declined in May. The Texas Leading Index ticked up in May for the second consecutive month.

Employment

Texas’ employment growth rate was slightly � below the nation’s 1.9 percent increase. The state gained 17,800 jobs in June after adding 19,500 in May. Texas employment stood at 11.8 million in June, according to the payroll survey (CES).

Month/month percent change, annualized*

8 7 6 5

The Texas unemployment rate ticked down � to 4.2 percent in June from 4.3 percent in May. The state’s reading continues to be lower than the U.S. rate, which came in at 5.3 percent.

4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2

Texas 2011

2012

U.S.

2013

2014

2015

*Seasonal and other adjustments by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

Housing Starts

Texas housing starts, including both single� family and multifamily units, decreased 17.6 percent in May after rising 2.3 percent in April. Starts are down 30 percent year over year, likely due to unusually heavy rainfall in May.

Thousand units, annual rate*

210 190 170

Single-family housing construction permits � fell 2.2 percent from April to May after two months of positive growth and were up 5.7 percent year over year.

150 130 110 90 70 50

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

*Seasonally adjusted.

Exports 170 160

Texas

150 140

U.S.

130 120 110 100 2010

2011

2012

*Seasonal and other adjustments by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

2013

Existing-home sales rose 2.6 percent from � May to June. Home inventories ticked up to 3.4 months of available supply in June, the first increase in five months, and were below their year-ago level of 3.6 months.

Texas monthly exports edged down 2.9 per� cent in May following a 4.7 percent increase in April. May exports were 6.5 percent lower than year-earlier levels.

Index, January 2010 = 100*

90

Employment has grown at a 1.2 percent � annualized rate year to date. The leisure and hospitality sector continued to record the fastest pace of increase at 5.5 percent, followed by education and health services at 3.8 percent. Employment in oil and gas extraction has posted the largest decline, followed by manufacturing and construction employment.

2014

2015

Crude Oil Prices

Natural Gas Prices

Texas Rig Count

Dollars/barrel

Dollars/million Btu

Active rigs

140

7

120

6

100

5

80

4

60

3

40

2

20

2011

2012

2013

2014

1

2015

West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose � from $59.27 per barrel in May to $59.85 in June. The price was 43.4 percent lower year over year.

1,000

800

600

400

2011

2012

2013

2014

�Natural gas dipped to $2.77 per million Btu in June, a 2.5 percent decrease from the May level. The price was 39.4 percent lower than in June 2014.

Texas Leading Index with Components Net change in Texas Leading Index

0.21

Texas Value of the Dollar

-0.29

U.S. Leading Index

0.54

Real oil price

0.37

Well permits

-0.45 0.68

New unemployment claims Texas Stock Index

-0.05

Help Wanted Index

-0.35 -0.25 -0.6

-0.4

Average weekly hours -0.2

0.0

0.2

200

2015

0.4

Three-month percent change through May

0.6

0.8

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

The Texas rig count continued to de� cline, dropping from 375 in May to 363 in June, and was down 59.3 percent from last year’s level.

The Texas Leading Index, which uses key � economic indicators to forecast employment growth, increased 0.7 percent in May. The three-month net change was positive for the first time since October 2014, reaching 0.2 percent from March to May. The Texas value of the dollar continued to rise, negatively impacting the leading index, while new unemployment claims declined, positively affecting the index. The Texas stock index turned down, while the trend in energy-related components continued to diverge as oil prices edged up and well permits continued to decline.

NOTE: Seasonally adjusted.

Manufacturing Outlook Survey Production Index

�Texas factory output contracted again in June, but at a slower rate, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose from -13.5 in May to -6.5 in June.

Index*

30 20 10

�The Dallas Fed conducts the outlook survey monthly to obtain a timely assessment of the state’s factory activity.

0 -10 -20 -30

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

*Seasonally adjusted.

NOTE: Data may not match previously published numbers due to revisions. SOURCES: Employment: Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Current Employment Statistics (CES), Texas Workforce Commission and seasonal and other adjustments by the Dallas Fed; housing: Census Bureau, Multiple Listing Service and Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ; exports: Census Bureau and WISERTrade; energy: Wall Street Journal and Baker Hughes; Texas Leading Index: Dallas Fed; Manufacturing Outlook Survey Production Index: Dallas Fed. Questions can be addressed to Emily Gutierrez at [email protected].

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