May 27, 2015 - Exports dipped during the first quarter. The Texas Leading Index .... Help-wanted Index and Texas Stock I
Texas Economic Indicators
DALLASFED
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF DALLAS • MAY 27, 2015
Summary
The Texas economy expanded at a modest pace in April. Employment growth was positive during the month, and unemployment held steady. Exports dipped during the first quarter. The Texas Leading Index ticked down in March for the seventh consecutive time.
Employment
Texas employment edged up at a 1.0 � percent annualized pace in April, slower than the nation’s 1.9 percent increase. Texas gained 9,700 jobs in April after shedding 11,800 jobs in March. Current Texas employment stands at 11.78 million, according to the payroll survey (CES).
Month/month percent change, annualized*
8 7 6 5 4
The Texas unemployment rate held steady � at 4.2 percent in April. The state’s reading continues to be lower than the U.S. rate, which came in at 5.4 percent.
3 2 1 0 -1
Texas
-2
2011
2012
U.S.
2013
2014
2015
*Seasonal and other adjustments by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
Employment Growth by Sector 0.8
Total
0.8
Private (84.3%)
Trade, transportation & utilities (20.2%)
0.5
Government (15.7%)
0.0
Professional & business services (13.4%)
Educational & health services (13.3%)
Leisure & hospitality (10.4%)
-4.0
Manufacturing (7.5%)
Financial activities (6.0%)
-2.6
Construction (5.7%)
Other Services (3.5%)
Oil & gas extraction* (2.5%)
Information (1.8%)
-14.4
2.3
2.6
5.3
Employment has grown at a 0.8 percent � annualized rate year to date. The leisure and hospitality sector recorded the fastest pace of increase at 5.3 percent followed by information services at 4.6 percent. Employment in oil and gas extraction has posted the largest decline, followed by manufacturing and construction employment.
0.7 1.5 4.6
*Includes support activities for mining. NOTES: Annualized percent change, December 2014–April 2015. Seasonal and other adjustments by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Numbers in parentheses represent share of total employment and may not sum to 100 due to rounding.
Existing-Home Sales Number of existing-home sales*
8,000
Houston
Dallas
Austin
San Antonio
Fort Worth
7,000 6,000 5,000
Single-family housing permits rose 1.2 � percent in March, following a 1.8 percent decline in February. Texas housing starts, which include single-family and multifamily starts, fell 7.6 percent in March, following a 4.0 percent rise in February.
4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0
Texas existing-home sales ticked up 1.3 � percent in April and were up 5.4 percent year over year. Home inventories remained at 3.3 months of available supply in April for the third month in a row and were slightly below the year-ago level of 3.5 months.
2010
*Seasonally adjusted.
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Crude Oil Prices
Natural Gas Prices
Dollars/barrel
Dollars/million Btu
140
7
120
6
100
5
80
4
60
3
40
2
20
2011
2012
2013
2014
West Texas Intermediate crude oil � rose from $47.82 per barrel in March to $54.45 in April. The price was 46.7 percent lower year over year.
Active rigs
1,000
800
600
400
1
2015
Texas Rig Count
2011
2012
2013
2014
200
2015
�Natural gas edged down to $2.58 per million Btu in April, a 7.9 percent decline from the March level. The price was 44.3 percent lower than in April 2014.
Exports
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
The Texas rig count continued to � decline, dropping from 492 in March to 422 in April, and was down 52.3 percent from last year’s level. �Texas exports declined 2.8 percent in the first quarter following an 8.4 percent decrease in fourth quarter 2014. First-quarter exports were 7.2 percent lower than a year ago. Texas exports to China saw the largest increase, climbing 20.2 percent, whereas exports to Canada declined 14.9 percent. Exports to Mexico—Texas’ largest trading partner—were relatively flat in the first quarter.
Real 2000 dollars (millions)*
60,000 55,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
2015
*Quarterly, seasonal and other adjustments by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
Texas Leading Index with Components -3.12
Net change in Texas Leading Index -0.97
Texas Value of the Dollar 0.13
U.S. leading index
-0.57
Real oil price
-0.99
Well permits
-0.95
New unemployment claims 0.34
Texas Stock Index
0.06
Help-wanted Index
-0.17 -3.5
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
The Texas Leading Index, which uses key � economic indicators to forecast employment growth, declined 3.12 percent from January to March as the majority of its components fell. The Texas value of the dollar and new unemployment claims continued to rise, negatively impacting the index. Energy-related components such as oil prices and well permits declined, while the Help-wanted Index and Texas Stock Index edged up during the period.
Average weekly hours 0.0
0.5
1.0
NOTE: Three-month percent change through March, seasonally adjusted.
NOTE: Data may not match previously published numbers due to revisions. SOURCES: Employment: Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Texas Workforce Commission; housing: Multiple Listing Service; Census Bureau and Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ; energy: Wall Street Journal and Baker Hughes; exports: Census Bureau and WISERTrade; Texas Leading Index: Dallas Fed. Questions can be addressed to Emily Gutierrez at
[email protected].
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