Mar 30, 2015 - The Texas Leading Index edged down for the fifth consecutive month in ... chase-only house price index fo
Texas Economic Indicators
DALLASFED
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF DALLAS • MARCH 30, 2015
Summary
The Texas economy continues to expand, with employment growing at a 1.3 percent annual rate in February. Texas existing-home sales and housing starts ticked up in February, while single-family permits dipped. Texas exports declined in January after rising in December. The Texas Leading Index edged down for the fifth consecutive month in January, suggesting moderating employment growth ahead.
Employment Growth by Sector Total! Private (84.4%)! Trade, transportation & utilities (20.1%)! Government (15.6%)! Professional & business services (13.4%)! Educational & health services (13.2%)! Leisure & hospitality (10.3%)! Manufacturing (7.5%)! Financial activities (6.1%)! Construction (5.7%)! Oil & gas extraction* (2.6%)! -7.9! Information (1.7%)! -10!
1.4! 1.9! -.8! -.1!
5.2!
2.0!
-3.8!
5.4!
1.1! 1.9! 3.0!
-8!
-6! -4! -2! 0! 2! 4! Year-to-date percent change, annualized!
6!
*Includes support activities for mining. NOTES: Seasonal and other adjustments by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Figures in parentheses represent share of total employment.
House Price Index 15! 10!
0!
-15!
U.S.!
2000!
2002!
2004!
Texas!
2006!
2008!
2010!
2012!
2014!
*Seasonally adjusted.
Construction Contract Values
Total construction! Total nonbuilding! Total residential! Total nonresidential!
8,000! 7,000! 6,000! 5,000! 4,000! 3,000! 2,000! 1,000! 0!
2010!
2011!
2012!
Texas existing-home sales ticked up 0.5 � percent in February and were nearly flat year over year. Home inventories edged down to 3.3 months of available supply in February and were below their year-ago level of 3.6 months. The five-month moving average of total � Texas construction contract values rose 6.7 percent in February to $8,068 million and was up 39.0 percent year over year. The increase in February was due to an increase in nonresidential construction.
Real current dollars (millions)*
9,000!
The Texas unemployment rate fell to 4.3 � percent in February. The Texas rate continues to be lower than the U.S. rate, which came in at 5.5 percent in February.
Single-family housing construction permits � fell 2.0 percent in February, following a 1.8 percent decline in January. Texas housing starts, which include single-family and multifamily starts, rose 3.6 percent in February, following an 8.0 percent drop in January.
5!
-10!
8!
Employment in the leisure and hospitality � and trade, transportation and utilities sectors increased by over 5 percent year to date, while job growth in the oil and gas sector, which saw the fastest pace of increase last year, fell 7.9 percent.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency pur� chase-only house price index for Texas rose 1.2 percent in fourth quarter 2014, and prices were up 6.5 percent from last year’s levels.
Year-over-year percent change*
-5!
Texas employment grew at a 1.3 percent � annualized pace in February, slower than the nation’s 2.5 percent increase. Texas gained 12,800 jobs in February after adding 15,100 jobs in January. Current Texas employment stands at 11.7 million, according to the payroll survey (CES).
2013!
*Five-month moving average; seasonal and other adjustments by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
2014!
2015!
Crude Oil Prices
Natural Gas Prices
Texas Rig Count
Dollars/barrel
Dollars/million Btu
Active rigs
$140!
$7!
$120!
$6!
$100!
$5!
$80!
$4!
$60!
$3!
$40!
$2!
$20!
2011!
2012! 2013!
2014!
1,000!
800!
600!
400!
$1!
2015!
The West Texas Intermediate crude oil � price fell from $48.42 per barrel for the week ending March 10 to $43.39 for the week ending March 17 and was down 56.6 percent year over year.
2011!
2012!
2013!
2014!
200!
2015!
�Natural gas prices rose to $2.78 per million Btu for the week ending March 17, a 1.0 percent increase from its March 10 level. The price was 37.4 percent lower than year-earlier levels.
Monthly Exports Texas!
160!
2012! 2013!
2014!
2015!
The Texas rig count dropped from 501 � in the week ending March 10 to 465 during the week ending March 17 and was down 45.8 percent from last year’s level.
Texas monthly exports fell 4.5 percent in � January, following a 2.7 percent rise in December. January exports were 10.7 percent lower than year-earlier levels.
Index, January 2010 = 100*
180!
2011!
140! 120!
U.S.!
100! 80! 60! 40! 20! 0!
2010!
2011!
2012!
2013!
2014!
2015!
*Seasonal and other adjustments by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
Texas Leading Index with Components Net change in Texas Leading Index!
-3.54! -1.03!
Texas Value of the Dollar! 0.31!
U.S. leading index!
-1.41!
Real oil price!
-1.30!
Well permits! -0.47!
New unemployment claims! 0.15!
Texas Stock Index!
0.45! -0.25! -4.0! -3.5! -3.0! -2.5! -2.0! -1.5! -1.0! -0.5!
Help-wanted Index!
�The Texas Leading Index, which uses key economic indicators to forecast employment growth, fell 3.5 percent from November to January, with more than half of its components dropping during the period. Texas’ value of the dollar, new unemployment claims and average weekly hours declined along with the index’s energy-related components—oil prices and well permits—while the U.S. Leading Index and help-wanted components rose during the period.
Average weekly hours! 0.0!
0.5!
1.0!
NOTE: Three-month percent change, seasonally adjusted.
NOTE: Data may not match previously published numbers due to revisions. SOURCES: Employment: Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Texas Workforce Commission; unemployment: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; housing: Federal Finance Housing Agency (FHFA), Census Bureau, Multiple Listing Service and Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ; construction: F.W. Dodge; energy: Wall Street Journal and Baker Hughes; exports: U.S. Census Bureau and World Institute for Strategic Economic Research; Texas Leading Index: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Questions can be addressed to Emily Gutierrez at
[email protected]. Texas Economic Indicators can be found online at www.dallasfed.org/research/indicators/index.cfm.
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