Texas Labor Market Review - Tracer2

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TEXAS LABOR MARKET REVIEW

SEPTEMBER 2017

T

he Texas Monthly Labor Market Review brings you the most current labor market highlights and happenings across the Lone Star State. The information that follows is produced and published on a monthly basis and includes data on nonagricultural job trends, the labor force, job postings, and other relevent indicators for both the state and sub-state areas. Additional data and historical information is available on our website: Tracer2.com.

For additional information, please contact: 1-866-938-4444 [email protected]

AUGUST 2017 MONTHLY INDICATORS INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT

CES program

5,500

Page 2

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

LAUS program Page 5

INITIAL CLAIMS

ONLINE JOB ADS

HWOL Page 8

0.1%

7,463

More Indicators Page 10

Labor Market and Career Information

32,730

CURRENT EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS Statewide Industry Employment (Seasonally Adjusted)

T

otal Nonagricultural Wage and Salary Employment rose by 5,500 jobs in August for the weakest monthly job gain since August 2016. The Goods-Producing sector provided all the lift with a gain of 5,800 jobs while Service-Providing sector employment fell for the second time in 2017 with a loss of 300 jobs. Job growth since January

Industry

Aug 2017

equaled 142,400 positions and marked the fastest pace of growth over this timeframe since 2014. Annual employment growth totaled 298,600 jobs added since August 2016 and equaled a 2.5 percent annual growth rate—more than double the rate set the previous year. The annual growth rate has been above 2.0 percent for six consecutive months.

Monthly Annual Annual % Change Change Change

12,333,900

5,500 298,600

2.5

10,374,700

4,400 270,800

2.7

1,836,100

5,800

80,300

4.6

Mining & Logging

243,900

1,000

29,500

13.8

Construction

714,800

2,600

15,200

2.2

Manufacturing

877,400

2,200

35,600

4.2

-300 218,300

2.1

Total Nonagricultural Private Goods-Producing

Service-Providing Trade, Transportation & Utilities

10,497,800 2,452,500

9,100

28,200

1.2

Information

191,400

-1,900

-10,700

-5.3

Financial Activities

757,800

-400

23,700

3.2

Professional & Business Services

1,679,400

-900

47,900

2.9

Education & Health Services

1,686,600

-2,200

46,300

2.8

Leisure & Hospitality

1,328,700

1,400

34,600

2.7

442,200

-6,500

20,500

4.9

1,959,200

1,100

27,800

1.4

Other Services Government

Highlights

• Trade, Transportation, and

Utilities employment grew at a 1.2 percent annual rate as an over-the-year decline in Retail Trade employment continued to drag on industry growth.

• Construction

industry employment has grown in nine of the past 12 months while adding 15,200 jobs over the year.

• Manufacturing

employment grew at 4.2 percent over the year, representing the industry’s highest annualized growth rate since March 2012.

Total Nonagricultural Jobs 80,000

5.0%

60,000

4.0% 3.0%

40,000

2.0%

20,000

1.0%

0

0.0%

‐20,000

‐1.0% ‐2.0%

‐40,000

‐3.0%

‐60,000

‐4.0% ‐5.0%

‐80,000

OTM Change

OTY % Change

Labor Market and Career Information

2

CURRENT EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS Metro Areas (Seasonally Adjusted)

Metro Areas Abilene MSA Amarillo MSA Austin-Round Rock MSA Beaumont-Port Arthur MSA Brownsville-Harlingen MSA College Station-Bryan MSA Corpus Christi MSA Dallas-FW-Arlington MSA Dallas-Plano-Irving MD Fort Worth-Arlington MD El Paso MSA Houston MSA Killeen-Temple MSA Laredo MSA Longview MSA Lubbock MSA McAllen MSA Midland MSA Odessa MSA San Angelo MSA San Antonio MSA Sherman-Denison MSA Texarkana MSA Tyler MSA Victoria MSA Waco MSA Wichita Falls MSA

Aug 2017

Monthly Annual Annual % Change Change Change

67,900 122,100 1,022,200 163,000 144,400 116,800 196,000 3,618,700 2,579,900 1,038,600 318,400 3,049,100 148,400 104,000 97,200 148,500 258,300 88,700 70,200 48,300 1,045,500 47,500 60,100 106,700 41,900 118,300 57,600

200 -100 700 1,800 -100 17,800 0 -1,200 500 2,300 400 3,600 500 6,500 2,600 101,400 2,400 73,000 -300 27,600 -100 7,500 800 54,800 200 4,000 -400 1,700 200 700 900 2,800 -1,900 5,100 500 1,900 100 1,200 -500 -500 7,800 25,000 200 1,300 0 -900 -200 2,300 -100 200 -400 -800 -200 0

-0.1 1.5 1.8 -0.7 1.6 3.2 3.4 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.4 1.8 2.8 1.7 0.7 1.9 2.0 2.2 1.7 -1.0 2.4 2.8 -1.5 2.2 0.5 -0.7 0.0

Highlights

(MSA industry data are not seasonally adjusted)

• Fourteen out of 26 areas improved

in employment over the month for a combined increase of 15,400 jobs. Twenty areas expanded over the year, while five contracted.

• The San Antonio-New Braunfels

MSA led in August with 7,800 positions added. The annual growth rate improved 0.5 percentage points to 2.4 percent.

• The San Antonio MSA also led all areas over the month in percentage terms with a gain of 0.8 percent. Per not seasonally adjusted data, employment in Professional and Business Services industry grew by 2.1 percent over the year. The industry increased annually for 78 consecutive months.

• The

Dallas-Plano-Irving area continues to lead all areas in annual growth with 73,000 jobs added since August 2016. The leading industry was Professional and Business Services with 22,300 jobs added followed by Leisure and Hospitality with 12,200 positions.

• The Beaumont-Port Arthur MSA

had the largest annualized job loss at 1,200 positions.

Fastest Growing Metro Areas Over the Year 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0%

Labor Market and Career Information

3

CURRENT EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS Fastest Growing Metro Areas Over-the-Year (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

College Station-Bryan MSA Area Industry Composition

Industry

100.0% Total Nonagricultural Mining, Logging, and Construction 6.7% Mining, Logging & Construction Manufacturing 4.7% Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 14.4% Trade, Transportation & Utilities Information 1.1% Information Financial Activities 3.4% Financial Activities Professional and Business Services 8.5% Professional & Business Services Educational and Health Services 10.1% Education & Health Services Leisure and Hospitality 13.2% Leisure & Hospitality Other Services 3.4% Other Services Government 34.6% Government

Annual Change 4,300 300 0 400 0 0 700 300 700 300 1,600

Annual % Change 4.0 4.1 0.0 2.5 0.0 0.0 7.9 2.7 4.9 8.6 4.3

Annual Change 4,100 1,600 100 0 -200 100 300 1,000 500 100 600

Annual % Change 2.9 16.7 1.3 0.0 -16.7 1.4 3.0 4.3 3.4 1.8 1.6

Annual Change 70,900 3,100 3,400 12,700 -1,100 6,200 22,300 4,200 12,200 2,800 5,100

Annual % Change 2.8 2.3 2.0 2.5 -1.5 2.7 4.7 1.4 4.8 3.4 1.8

Killeen-Temple MSA Area Industry Composition

Industry

100.0%Mining, Logging, and Construction Total Nonagricultural 7.6%Manufacturing Mining, Logging & Construction 5.1% Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 18.7% Trade, Transportation & Utilities Information 0.7% Information Financial Activities 4.8% Financial Activities Professional and Business Services 7.0% Professional & Business Services Educational and Health Services 16.6% Education & Health Services Leisure and Hospitality 10.3% Leisure & Hospitality Other Services 3.8% Other Services Government 25.5% Government

Dallas-Plano-Irving MD Area Industry Composition

Industry

100.0%Mining, Logging, and Construction Total Nonagricultural 5.4% Mining, Logging & Construction Manufacturing 6.8% Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 20.1% Trade, Transportation & Utilities Information 2.7% Information Financial Activities 9.0% Financial Activities Professional and Business Services 19.3% Professional & Business Services Educational and Health Services 11.9% Education & Health Services Leisure and Hospitality 10.3% Leisure & Hospitality Other Services 3.3% Other Services Government 11.1% Government

Download CES excel data sheets (include industry-level data) Labor Market and Career Information

4

LOCAL AREA UNEMPLOYMENT STATISTICS Texas & the U.S. (Seasonally Adjusted)

Texas August 2017 Date

Employed 12,816,500 Unemployed 556,900

4.2%

CLF

Employment Unemployment

Rate

1 August 2017

13,373,400

12,816,500

556,900

4.2

July 2017

13,401,900

12,827,400

574,500

4.3

August 2016

13,290,300

12,662,800

627,600

4.7

2

U.S. August 2017 Date

Employed 153,439,000 Unemployed 7,132,000

4.4%

CLF

Employment Unemployment

Rate

1 August 2017 2

160,571,000

153,439,000

7,132,000

4.4

July 2017

160,494,000

153,513,000

6,981,000

4.3

August 2016

159,508,000

151,655,000

7,853,000

4.9

Highlights

• Texas’ seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 4.2 percent in August, down one-tenth of a percentage point from July. The U.S. rate increased by one-tenth of a percentage point to 4.4 percent.

• The state’s labor force participation rate was a seasonally adjusted 62.9 percent in August. • Texas’ seasonally adjusted LAUS employment was down 10,900 from last month. • Summarizing the not seasonally adjusted estimates, the Texas unemployment rate increased by two-tenths of a percentage point to 4.5 percent from July to August. This was four-tenths of a percentage point lower than the unemployment rate in August 2016. Over the previous five years, the unemployment rate has averaged a decrease of three-tenths of a percentage point from July to August.

10 Largest States' Unemployment Rates Michigan Florida North Carolina Texas Texas Georgia New York Pennsylvania Illinois California Ohio 3.0%

OTM Increase OTM Decline Current Rate

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

Labor Market and Career Information

5.5%

6.0%

5

LOCAL AREA UNEMPLOYMENT STATISTICS Substate Areas (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

County Unemployment Rates

County Highlights

• Unemployment

rates varied considerably across counties, ranging from a low of 1.9 percent in McMullen County to a high of 12.0 percent in Zavala County.

• Seventeen counties had an unemployment rate of 3.0 percent or less.

• Zavala County’s unemployment rate decreased by 4.4 percentage points over the year, comfortably the largest decline among Texas counties.

• In August 2017, 54 of the 254 counties had an over-the-month decline in their unemployment rates. Fifty-three counties were unchanged over the month, while 147 increased.

3.9% and below 4.0% to 4.9% 5.0% to 5.9% 6.0% to 6.9% 7.0% and above

• Over the year, the civilian labor force increased in 82 counties. Roberts county remained unchanged, while the other 171 counties experienced a decline.

Texas Metro Areas Ranked by Unemployment Rate Rank 1 2 3 4 4 6 6 8 9 9 11 11 13 14

Area Amarillo Midland Austin-Round Rock College Station-Bryan Lubbock San Antonio-New Braunfels Sherman-Denison San Angelo Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington Wichita Falls Abilene Tyler Killeen-Temple Odessa

Rate

Rank

Area

Rate

3.1 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.3

15 16 17 18 18 20 20 22 23 24 25

Laredo United States Texas Waco Texarkana El Paso Victoria Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Longview Corpus Christi Beaumont-Port Arthur Brownsville-Harlingen McAllen-Edinburg-Mission

4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.7 4.8 4.8 5.2 5.2 5.8 7.2 7.3 8.0

Metro Area Highlights

• Two MSAs in Texas experienced an over-the-month decrease in their unemployment rate in August, with the Amarillo and San Angelo MSAs both experiencing a decline of 0.1 percentage points.

• Over the year, 23 MSAs saw a decrease in their unemployment rate, with Odessa, Longview, Midland, Victoria, and

San Angelo experiencing a decrease of one percent or more. Odessa experienced the largest over the year change, dropping 2.7 percentage points.

Labor Market and Career Information

6

CURRENT POPULATION SURVEY 12-Month Moving Average Unemployment Rates

Texas Unemployment Rates by Demographic Gender (age 16+)

Aug 2017

July 2017

Aug 2016

Female

4.4%

4.4%

4.4%

Male

4.7%

4.8%

4.7%

Race & Ethnicity (age 16+)

Aug 2017

July 2017

Aug 2016

White

4.1%

4.2%

4.2%

Black

7.3%

7.4%

6.9%

Hispanic

5.1%

5.1%

4.7%

Other Categories (age 18+) Veterans

Aug 2017 3.9%

July 2017 4.0% July 2017

Aug 2016 3.7%

Age

Aug 2017

16-19

13.1% 13.5% 14.8% 7.1%

7.5%

8.8%

25-34

4.7%

4.6%

4.8%

35-44

4.0%

4.0%

3.0%

45-54

3.1%

3.1%

3.3%

55-64

3.7%

3.6%

3.0%

65+

3.8%

4.0%

3.8%

Aug 2017

July 2017

• The unemployment rate for males and females

remained steady over-the-year at 4.7 and 4.4 percent, respectively.

• The unemployment rate for veterans was up 0.2 percentage points over-the-year at 3.9 percent.

• Individuals

with some College education or higher continue to have a lower unemployment rate than those with a High School Diploma or less.

• Of the new entrants into Texas’ labor force in

August, more are men (29,700) than women (23,400).

• The number of people not in the labor force because they are discouraged over job prospects in Texas stands at 34,800, down from a level of 42,700 a year ago.

• Out of the estimated 7,707,000 Texans not in the

labor force, 94 percent do not currently want a job.

Aug 2016

20-24

Education (age 25+)

Highlights

Unemployment Rates by Age 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0%

5.5%

5.6%

4.5%

High School Diploma

5.1%

4.9%

5.1%

Some College or Associate Degree

3.9%

3.9%

3.5%

Bachelor's Degree or Higher

2.6%

2.7%

2.5%

Age 20‐24

Age 25‐34

Previous Year

Aug 2016

Less than High School

Age 16‐19

Age 35‐44

Age 45‐54

Previous Month

Age 55‐64

Age 65+

Aug 2017

Unemployment Rates by Education 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0%

Less than HS

HS Diploma

Previous Year

Some College or Associate Degree

Previous Month

Bachelor's Degree or Higher

Aug 2017

Download all LAUS excel data sheets. Labor Market and Career Information

7

HELP WANTED ONLINE Statewide Online Job Postings Data (Seasonally Adjusted)

1,100

450

1,000

400

900

350

800

300

700

250

600 500

200

400

150

Unemployed

# OF ADS (THOUSANDS)

# OF UNEMPLOYED (THOUSANDS)

Texas Labor Supply vs. Labor Demand

HWOL

Highlights

• Online advertised vacancies decreased by 7,463 to 300,233 in August, according to The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Data Series.

• The August Supply/Demand rate stands at 1.86 unemployed for each advertised vacancy with a total of 256,709 more unemployed workers than the number of advertised vacancies.

Top Employers by Postings

Top Occupations by Postings

Employer

Aug 2017

July 2017

Occupation

Aug 2017

Anthem, Inc.

4,614

367

HCA - The Healthcare Company

Registered Nurses

14,755 15,108

3,687 3,712

Heavy Truck Drivers

10,868 12,039

Robert Half International

3,425 3,524

Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers

7,290 7,592

Army

2,803 2,432

Retail Salespersons

6,879 6,912

MedOptions, Inc.

2,224

Software Developers, Applications

6,676 6,319

Scott & White

2,117 2,449

General Maintenance Workers

5,880 5,746

ACCENTURE

1,922 2,007

Customer Service Representatives

5,459 5,452

Randstad

1,662 2,260

Supervisors of Office & Admin Workers 4,990 4,882

The University of Texas System

1,659 1,526

Computer User Support Specialists

4,803 4,726

Tenet Healthcare Corporation

1,540 1,534

Computer Systems Analysts

4,680 4,303

775

Labor Market and Career Information

July 2017

8

EMPLOYMENT NEWS Media Update Harvey Exposes Weaknesses to Energy Supply Houston Chronicle HOUSTON, TX—The Texas oil industry’s breakdown after Tropical Storm Harvey will test the nation’s ability to get fuel to motorists, as the Gulf Coast’s vast network of refineries, pipelines and seaside ports stay idle for weeks. The slow restart of coastal energy facilities will likely expose weak spots in energy supply chains. “In addition to the human tragedy, it’s just shown how important Houston and the Texas Gulf has become in the global oil system,” said Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of IHS Markit. “As the storm passes, the big question will be how the logistics work with this degree of disruption, and how quickly do the refineries come back?” In less than a week, Harvey flooded more than a dozen major refineries, stranded workers from Corpus Christi to Port Arthur, and shut down major pipelines that ferry oil and gasoline across the country. “It’s clear the infrastructure in the systems haven’t kept up with the topography,” Yergin added The catastrophic storm came at a time when the domestic oil and gas surge has shifted the energy industry’s center of gravity to the Texas coast, a flood-prone region exposed to frequent and powerful storms. It has raised questions about the resiliency of Gulf Coast refineries and whether the region’s vulnerability to storms might threaten its future as an energy hub. In recent years, petrochemical manufacturers have poured tens of billions into new plants in Houston and along the Gulf Coast, taking advantage of existing gas and chemical processing facilities and the proximity to ports and waterways to export products. The region — not even counting Louisiana — produces more than 25 percent of the nation’s gasoline and jet fuel. Lost economic activity and extensive damage by the storm could cost the region more than $100 billion, including $5 billion to $10 billion in damage to road, bridges, rail and other infrastructure that holds the energy complex together.

Job Gains Bank Headquarters Planned in North Texas Dallas Morning News DALLAS, TX—Independent Bank Group’s $52 million new headquarters will start construction in the fourth quarter of this year. KDC, the commercial building company that built Toyota North American’s new headquarters in Plano, will oversee the 400,000-square-foot campus that could eventually house as many as 1,200 workers. The Independent Bank Group headquarters will be in McKinney. Independent Bank Group has more than 80 locations in Texas and Colorado.

Job Losses Offshore Driller Plans Layoff Houston Chronicle HOUSTON, TX—Rowan Companies, a UK-based contract drilling company with a corporate office in Houston, plans to lay off 150 employees by the end of August. Carrie Prati, director of investor relations with Rowan, said that the layoffs were prompted by the cancellation of a contract the company had with Cobalt International Energy, also Houston-based. With the Reliance rig being a Gulf Coast installation, these layoffs will likely affect employees living in Houston and other Gulf states.

Labor Market and Career Information

9

KEY INDICATORS Total Nonag Annual Employment Growth

Unemployment Rates

Current Month: Texas: 2.5% US: 1.4%

Current Month: Texas: 4.2% US: 4.4%

(Seasonally Adjusted)

(Seasonally Adjusted)

12.0%

5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% ‐1.0% ‐2.0% ‐3.0% ‐4.0% ‐5.0% ‐6.0%

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%

TX of US Source: TWC/Bureau Labor Statistics

Texas of Labor U.S. Statistics Source: TWC/Bureau

Initial and Continued Claims

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil vs.Texas Rig Count

(3-Month Moving Average)

Current Month: Initial Claims: 79,073 Continued Claims: 672,122 140,000

1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0

120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0

Initial Claims Continued Claims Source: TWC

Current Month: WTI: $48.04 Texas Rig Count: 463 $160 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0

1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

WTI Administration Texas Rig Counts (EIA) & Baker Hughes Source: US Energy Information

Consumer Price Index Annual Growth

Average Hourly Earnings

(Not Seasonally Adjusted)

(Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Current Month: Dallas-Fort Worth: 1.9% Houston-Galveston: 2.2%

Current Month: Texas: $25.13 US: $26.17

8%

$27

6%

$26 $25

4%

$24

2%

$23

0%

$22

‐2%

$21

‐4%

$20

Dallas of Labor Houston Source: Bureau Statistics

US Source: BureauTXof Labor Statistics

Download Key Indicators data in excel. Labor Market and Career Information

10

GLOSSARY CURRENT EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS This Federal/State cooperative program produces estimates drawn from a monthly survey of nonfarm business establishments used to collect wage and salary employment, worker hours and payroll by industry and area. It counts the number of jobs, not of people. Nonagricultural Jobs - The total number of persons on establishment payrolls employed full or part time. Persons on the payroll of more than one establishment are counted in each establishment. Data exclude proprietors, self-employed, unpaid family or volunteer workers, farm workers, and domestic workers. Government employment only covers civilian employees. Actual or Not Seasonally Adjusted - Describes the data series not subject to the seasonal adjustment process. In other words, the effects of regular, or seasonal, patterns have not been removed from these series.

LOCAL AREA UNEMPLOYMENT STATISTICS This Federal/State cooperative program produces employment and unemployment estimates by place of residence. Employed - All persons 16 years and over who, during the reference week, (a) did any work at all (at least 1 hour) as paid employees, worked on their own business, profession, or on their own farm, or worked 15 hours or more as unpaid family workers, or (b) were not working but who had jobs from which they were temporarily absent. Each employed person is counted only once, even if the person holds more than one job. Unemployed - All persons aged 16 years and over who had no employment, were available for work, and had made specific efforts to find employment. Includes persons who were waiting to be recalled to jobs from which they had been laid off.

Seasonally Adjusted - The effects of regular, or seasonal, patterns of hiring or layoffs (holidays, weather, etc.) have been removed from these series. These adjustments make it easier to observe the cyclical and other non-seasonal movements in a data series.

Unemployment Rate - The unemployed number divided by the civilian labor force number.

HELP WANTED ONLINE

MISCELLANEOUS

The Conference Board's data series provides monthly measures of labor demand (advertised vacancies) at the national, regional, state, and metropolitan area levels.

Metropolitan Division (MD) - A Metropolitan Statistical Area with a population of 2.5 million which is subdivided into smaller groupings is referred to as Metropolitan Divisions (MDs).

Supply-Demand rate - A ratio measuring the number of unemployed persons per Help Wanted Online job opening.

INDICATORS Initial Claims - A count of notices of unemployment received requesting a determination of eligibility for UI benefits. A person can file multiple claims.

Civilian Labor Force (CLF) - All persons classified as employed or unemployed.

Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) - A geographic area that contains at least one urbanized center of 50,000 or more population plus adjacent territory that has a high degree of social and economic integration with the core urban location. An MSA in Texas is made up of one or more counties.

Continued Claims - A count of claimants who have qualified for and are receiving UI benefits.

Metro Area - Can refer either to a Metropolitan Statisical Area or a Metropolitan Division. Texas has 25 MSAs, including the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington MSA which is subdivided into two MDs.

Consumer Price Index - An index of the variation in prices paid by typical consumers for retail goods and other items.

Workforce Development Area (WDA) - The State of Texas is divided into twenty-eight (28) local workforce development areas.

Labor Market and Career Information

11

LMCI Director: Doyle Fuchs Editor: Mariana Vega Layout and Design: Fatima-Zahra Pendleton TLMR Contributors: Phil Arnold, Gabriel Guzman, Robert Luttner, Fatima-Zahra Pendleton, Andrew Sak, and Matthew Weber.

Another quality product from Texas Workforce Commission Labor Market and Career Information 101 East 15th Street, Room 0252 Austin, Texas 78778-0001 1-866-938-4444 (512) 936-3278 FAX: (512) 936-3208 www.lmci.state.tx.us Equal Opportunity Employer/Program Relay Texas: 800-735-2989 (TTY) and 711 (Voice) http://www.texasworkforce.org