THE AP-GfK POLL

Public Affairs & Corporate Communications

THE AP-GfK POLL October, 2015 Conducted by GfK Public Affairs & Corporate Communications

A survey of the American general population (ages 18+)

Interview dates: October 15 -October 19, 2015 Number of interviews, adults: 1,027 Margin of error for the total sample: +/- 3.3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level

NOTE: All results show percentages among all respondents, unless otherwise labeled. Please refer to the exact sample number at the bottom of each table.

*Beginning in October, 2013, AP-GfK polls were conducted online using GfK’s nationally representative KnowledgePanel. All prior trend conducted by telephone. For more information, see http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com.

1

Some questions held for future release. AA4/5 previously released.

7/9-13/15

4/23-27/15

TOTAL 10/16-20/14

REGISTERED VOTERS 10/16-20/14

LIKELY VOTERS 10/16-20/14

TOTAL 9/25-29/14



7/24-28/14

5/16-19/14

3/20-24/14

1/17-21/14

12/5-9/13

10/3-7/13*

Are you currently registered to vote at your address, or not?

1

82 18 1

80 19 *

79 20 * -

100 -

100 -

78 22 * -

100 -

100 -

78 15 4 3

74 19 5 3

77 16 5 2

73 20 4 3

79 16 2 2

78 15 5 3

N=1,023

N=1,002

N=1,077

N=1,607

N=1,384

N=967

N=1,840

N=1,536

N=955

N=1,042

N=1,352

N=1,009

N=1,058

N=1,365

N=1,225

10/15-19/15

S1.

Yes No Not sure Refused/Not answered Based on: (Excludes those living in ND)

76 23 -

Some questions held for future release. CUR33-34 previously released.

2

FAV1. For each of the following individuals, please select if you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of that person. If you don’t know enough about the person to have an opinion, you can say that too. (Summary table)

Barack Obama Chris Christie Ted Cruz Rand Paul Jeb Bush Marco Rubio Mike Huckabee Ben Carson Hillary Clinton Carly Fiorina John Kasich Donald Trump Bernie Sanders Joe Biden

3

Total favorable 47 22 17 20 26 23 21 32 41 24 13 31 32 40

Very favorable 24 3 5 3 3 7 5 13 17 6 3 10 13 13

Somewhat favorable 23 19 12 17 23 17 17 19 24 18 10 21 20 27

Total unfavorable 45 44 39 37 48 33 39 31 48 30 23 57 30 39

Somewhat unfavorable 14 21 14 18 26 16 16 14 13 15 12 15 13 18

Very unfavorable 31 23 25 19 23 17 22 16 35 15 11 43 18 21

Don’t know enough to say 6 31 41 40 23 41 37 33 8 43 61 8 35 18

Refused 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 2 3 4 3 3 3

7/9-13/15

4/23-27/15

12/4-8/14

TOTAL 10/16-20/14



7/24-28/14

3/20-24/14

12/5-9/13

10/3-7/13

Total favorable

47

46

46

46

41

43

44

44

44

42

46

44

Very favorable

24

24

27

26

21

20

23

26

20

22

23

24

Somewhat favorable

23

22

20

20

20

23

21

18

24

20

23

20

Total unfavorable

45

47

46

45

46

46

50

54

51

51

49

46

Somewhat unfavorable Very unfavorable Don’t know enough to say Refused/Not Answered

14 31 6 2

13 34 5 2

15 31 7 1

13 32 6 3

13 33 11 2

15 32 9 2

15 35 5 1

13 41 2 1

13 38 4 1

14 37 6 1

15 34 4 2

13 33 8 2

N=1,027

N=1,004

N=1,077

N=1,045

N=1,010

N=1,608

N=1,385

N=968

N=1,044

N=1,012

N=1,367

N=1,227

10/15-19/15

7/9-13/15

4/23-27/15

1/29-2/2/15

7/24-28/14

3/20-24/14

Based on:

22

23

22

25

31

26

Very favorable

3

4

3

5

8

7

Somewhat favorable

19

19

20

20

24

19

Total unfavorable

44

44

40

41

41

38


21 23 31 3

21 22 31 3

22 17 36 2

23 18 31 3

21 20 26 2

22 16 35 2

N=1,027

N=1,004

N=1,077

N=1,045

N=1,044

N=1,012

Chris Christie Total favorable

Based on:

4

1/29-2/2/15

Barack Obama

10/15-19/15

FAV1. For each of the following individuals, please select if you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of that person. If you don’t know enough about the person to have an opinion, you can say that too.

7/24-28/14

3/20-24/14

10/3-7/13*

17

20

18

15

22

18

16

Very favorable

5

6

6

6

9

8

7

Somewhat favorable

12

15

12

9

13

10

9

Total unfavorable

39

33

32

27

30

30

32


14 25 41 3

11 22 43 4

10 22 49 2

10 17 55 3

9 22 46 2

10 20 50 2

10 22 50 2

N=1,027

N=1,004

N=1,077

N=1,045

N=1,044

N=1,012

N=1,227

10/15-19/15

7/9-13/15

4/23-27/15

1/29-2/2/15

7/24-28/14

3/20-24/14

Based on:

20

25

23

24

29

25

Very favorable

3

5

5

6

8

9

Somewhat favorable

17

20

18

18

21

16

Total unfavorable

37

33

32

28

31

28


18 19 40 3

18 15 39 4

17 15 43 3

15 13 45 4

14 17 39 2

12 16 45 2

N=1,027

N=1,004

N=1,077

N=1,045

N=1,044

N=1,012

Rand Paul Total favorable

Based on:

5

1/29-2/2/15

Total favorable

4/23-27/15

Ted Cruz

7/9-13/15

(Continued) For each of the following individuals, please select if you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of that person. If you don’t know enough about the person to have an opinion, you can say that too.

10/15-19/15

FAV1.

7/24-28/14

3/20-24/14

26

31

29

27

31

27

8

7

21

23

19

Total unfavorable

48

44

36

36

35

31


26 23 23 3

22 22 23 2

19 17 33 1

19 18 33 3

18 17 33 2

18 14 40 2

N=1,027

N=1,004

N=1,077

N=1,045

N=1,044

N=1,012

Marco Rubio Total favorable

3/20-24/14

6

25

1/29-2/2/15

5

24

4/23-27/15

7

23

7/9-13/15

3

Somewhat favorable

10/15-19/15

Very favorable

Based on:

23

26

23

19

23

Very favorable

7

7

8

6

7

Somewhat favorable

17

19

16

13

15

Total unfavorable

33

28

27

26

27


16 17 41 3

14 14 43 3

14 14 48 2

13 13 52 3

14 13 49 2

N=1,027

N=1,004

N=1,077

N=1,045

N=1,012

Based on:

6

1/29-2/2/15

Total favorable

4/23-27/15

Jeb Bush

7/9-13/15


10/15-19/15

FAV1.

Mike Huckabee

7/9-13/15

4/23-27/15

1/29-2/2/15

3/20-24/14


10/15-19/15

FAV1.

Total favorable

21

25

23

22

26

Very favorable

5

6

7

8

8

Somewhat favorable

17

19

16

15

18

Total unfavorable

39

32

30

31

30


16 22 37 3

14 19 40 3

15 15 45 2

14 17 43 3

15 15 43 2

N=1,027

N=1,004

N=1,077

N=1,045

N=1,012

10/15-19/15

7/9-13/15

4/23-27/15

1/29-2/2/15

Based on:

Total favorable

32

20

15

16

Very favorable

13

9

7

8

Somewhat favorable

19

11

8

8

Total unfavorable

31

15

12

11


14 16 33 4

4 10 62 3

5 6 71 2

4 6 70 4

N=1,027

N=1,004

N=1,077

N=1,045

Ben Carson

Based on:

7

Hillary Clinton

7/9-13/15

4/23-27/15

7/24-28/14

3/20-24/14


10/15-19/15

FAV1.

Total favorable

41

39

46

48

46

Very favorable

17

18

22

21

21

Somewhat favorable

24

21

24

27

26

Total unfavorable

48

49

41

42

39


13 35 8 2

16 33 9 2

12 30 12 2

14 29 8 2

14 25 12 2

N=1,027

N=1,004

N=1,077

N=1,044

N=1,012

10/15-19/15

7/9-13/15

4/23-27/15

Based on:

24

12

7

Very favorable

6

4

2

Somewhat favorable

18

8

6

Total unfavorable

30

17

12


15 15 43 3

8 9 68 3

5 7 75 5

N=1,027

N=1,004

N=1,077

Carly Fiorina Total favorable

Based on:

8

7/9-13/15

3/20-24/14


10/15-19/15

FAV1.

13

9

8

Very favorable

3

2

2

Somewhat favorable

10

6

6

Total unfavorable

23

13

13


12 11 61 4

6 7 75 4

7 6 77 2

N=1,027

N=1,004

N=1,012

John Kasich Total favorable

Donald Trump

10/15-19/15

7/9-13/15

Based on:

Total favorable

31

28

Very favorable

10

10

Somewhat favorable

21

18

Total unfavorable

57

58


15 43 8 3

15 43 12 2

N=1,027

N=1,004

Based on:

9

Bernie Sanders

4/23-27/15


10/15-19/15

FAV1.

Total favorable

32

10

Very favorable

13

4

Somewhat favorable

20

6

Total unfavorable

30

11


13 18 35 3

5 6 73 5

N=1,027

N=1,077

10/15-19/15

7/24-28/14

3/20-24/14

12/5-9/13

10/3-7/13

Based on:

Total favorable

40

38

34

39

37

Very favorable

13

14

12

13

14

Somewhat favorable

27

24

22

26

24

Total unfavorable

39

47

43

44

43


18 21 18 3

17 30 13 2

17 27 21 2

21 23 16 1

18 25 19 2

N=1,027

N=1,044

N=1,012

N=1,367

N=1,227

Joe Biden

Based on:

10

WIN1.

Regardless of who you would personally support, do you think each of the following could possibly win the general election for president if they were their party’s nominee, or definitely could not win?

Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Joe Biden Donald Trump Carly Fiorina Ben Carson Marco Rubio Jeb Bush Ted Cruz John Kasich Chris Christie Mike Huckabee Rand Paul

11

Could possibly win 75 44 56 48 32 41 34 48 23 16 24 20 21

Definitively could not win 21 51 38 47 62 54 61 47 71 78 71 75 73

Refused 4 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 6 6 5 7

IMG1 previously released.

10/15-19/15

CNG1. If you had to choose, which would you prefer in a president?

Someone who has experience in Washington and can get things done Someone who is a Washington outsider who will change how things are done Refused Based on:

44 54 3 N=1,027

10/15-19/15

CNG1b If you had to choose, which would you prefer in a president?

Someone who has experience in private sector leadership, but no experience holding elected office Someone with experience holding elected office, but no experience in private sector leadership Refused Based on:

12

55 41 4 N=1,027

HCEMAIL1-BZI2 previously released. Some held for future release. GS2 previously released. Some questions held for future release.

4/23-27/15

1/29-2/2/15

12/4-8/14

TOTAL 10/16-20/14



TOTAL 9/25-29/14



7/24-28/14

5/16-19/14

3/20-24/14

1/17-21/14

12/5-9/13

10/3-7/13*

Do you consider yourself a supporter of the Tea Party movement, or are you not a supporter of the Tea Party movement?

10/15-19/15

TP4.

18 77

22 74

21 75

20 76

19 78

22 75

27 71

17 79

20 77

26 72

23 74

20

22

27

20

17

Not a supporter

77

73

67

76

78

Don’t know [VOL]

na

na

na

na

na

na

na

na

na

na

na

na

na

na

na

na

5

5

5

4

3

2

2

4

3

2

4

4

6

6

4

5

N=1,027

N=1,077

N=1,045

N=1,010

N=1,608

N=1,385

N=968

N=1,845

N=1,541

N=958

N=1,044

N=1,354

N=1,012

N=1,060

N=1,367

N=1,227

Supporter

Refused/Not

13



TOTAL 9/25-29/14



7/24-28/14

5/16-19/14

3/20-24/14

Based on: Tea Party Supporter

TOTAL 10/16-20/14

Refused/Not Answered

12/4-8/14

Strongly Somewhat

[IF TP4=1] Do you support the tea party movement strongly or somewhat…

1/29-2/2/15

TP4a.

4/23-27/15

Based on:

10/15-19/15

Answered

27 73

28 71

35 65

36 63

36 64

35 65

38 62

31 68

31 67

34 65

35 64

28 71

31 67

-

1

1

1

*

*

-

1

1

1

1

1

2

N=183

N=213

N=227

N=225

N=332

N=318

N=261

N=361

N=331

N=255

N=259

N=263

N=227

7/9-13/15

4/23-27/15

1/29-2/2/15

12/4-8/14

TOTAL 10/16-20/14



TOTAL 9/25-29/14



7/24-28/14

5/16-19/14

3/20-24/14

1/17-21/14

12/5-9/13

10/3-7/13*

Do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican, an independent or none of these?

10/15-19/15

PID1.

Democrat

30

29

32

31

31

30

34

34

31

36

35

29

32

30

33

29

31

Independent

26

26

27

27

24

23

23

23

24

25

25

24

21

24

23

28

27

Republican

23

25

21

23

24

26

29

35

24

27

32

28

26

27

25

23

23

None of these

18

17

19

17

18

19

12

8

19

11

7

17

19

16

18

17

15

Don’t know [VOL]

na

na

na

na

na

na

na

na

na

na

na

na

na

na

na

na

na

2

3

2

3

3

2

2

1

2

1

1

3

3

3

2

2

3

N=1,004

N=1,077

N=1,608

N=1,385

N=968

N=1,845

N=1,541

N=958

N=1,044

N=1,354

N=1,012

N=1,060

N=1,367

N=1,227

Refused/Not Answered Based on:

N=1,027

14

N=1,045

N=1,010

15

5/16-19/14

3/20-24/14

1/17-21/14

Based on:

7/24-28/14

Refused/Not answered


None – don’t lean


Independent – don’t lean

TOTAL 9/25-29/14

None – lean Republican


Independent – lean Republican


Republican

TOTAL 10/16-20/14

None – lean Democratic Total Republican

12/4-8/14

Independent – lean Democratic

1/29-2/2/15

Democrat

4/23-27/15

Total Democrat

7/9-13/15

Do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican, an independent or none of these? IF “INDEPENDENT” OR “NONE,” OR REFUSAL, ASK: Do you lean more toward the Democrats or the Republicans?

10/15-19/15

PID1/i.

41 30 8 2

42 29 10 4

44 32 9 3

42 31 7 3

41 31 7 2

41 30 7 4

44 34 7 3

42 34 7 1

43 31 8 4

47 36 8 2

45 35 9 2

40 29 8 4

43 32 9 3

41

44

30

33

8

9

3

2

37 23 10 4

37 25 10 2

34 21 10 3

35 23 10 3

38 24 9 5

37 26 8 3

41 29 9 3

47 35 10 3

34 24 8 3

38 27 9 3

45 32 10 3

38 28 8 2

34 26 6 2

39

35

27

25

10

8

2

2

9 14

7 14

8 14

10 14

8 14

7 14

7 8

6 5

8 15

8 8

7 4

8 14

7 16

6

5

14

16

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

N=1,027

N=1,004

N=1,077

N=1,045

N=1,010

N=1,608

N=1,385

N=968

N=1,845

N=1,541

N=958

N=1,044

N=1,354

N=1,012

N=1,060

7/9-13/15

4/23-27/15

1/29-2/2/15

12/4-8/14

TOTAL 10/16-20/14



TOTAL 9/25-29/14



7/24-28/14

5/16-19/14

3/20-24/14

1/17-21/14

12/5-9/13

Liberal Conservative Moderate Refused/Not answered

Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a…?

10/15-19/15

G11b.

18 35 44 3

20 34 43 3

21 33 43 3

19 33 45 3

20 35 40 5

21 33 42 3

21 36 42 2

20 41 39 1

20 31 45 4

20 35 43 2

19 40 40 1

16 34 45 4

22 33 42 4

18 38 40 4

20 38 38 5

20 35 42 4

N=1,027

N=1,004

N=1,077

N=1,045

N=1,010

N=1,608

N=1,385

N=968

N=1,224

N=1,016

N=643

N=1,044

N=1,354

N=1,012

N=1,060

N=1,367

Based on:

DM5.

Which one of the following best describes where you live? Urban area Suburban area Rural area Refused/Not Answered

26 47 25 3 N=1,027

Based on:

INS1.

The next questions are about your personal health insurance. Please include health insurance obtained through employment or purchased directly as well as government programs like Medicare and Medicaid that provide medical care or help pay medical bills.

16

5/16-19/14

3/20-24/14

1/17-21/14

12/5-9/13

10/3-7/13*

10/16-20/14

12/4-8/14

88 10 2

88 10 2

88 9 2

87 10 3

86 11 3

86 12 2

82 15 3

85 12 3

83 16 2

82 16 2

83 14 3

N=1,027

N=1,004

N=1,077

N=1,045

N=1,010

N=1,608

N=1,354

N=1,012

N=1,060

N=1,367

N=1,227

TOTAL

1/29-2/2/15

Based on:

4/23-27/15

Yes No Refused/Not answered

7/9-13/15

10/15-19/15

Are you currently covered by any kind of health insurance or some other kind of health care plan or not?

DM12.

Do you consider yourself a born-again or evangelical Christian, or not? Yes, born-again/evangelical No Refused/Not Answered

31 66 3

Based on:

DM13.

N=1,027

What is your religious preference? Protestant Catholic Mormon Jewish Muslim Other religion Don’t belong to religious denomination Refused/Not Answered

26 23 2 2 * 15 29 3

Based on:

DM14.

N=1,027

[IF “OTHER RELIGION” IN DM13] Do you consider yourself a Christian, or not? Yes, a Christian No, not a Christian Refused/Not Answered

88 11 1

Based on:

N=140

10/15-19/15

12/5-9/13

GUNS4. Does anyone in your household own a gun, or not?

Yes

37

35

No

59

61

Refused/Not answered

4

4

N=1,027

N=1,367

Based on:

17

DMCELL. How many different landline telephone numbers, if any, are there in your home? This includes listed or unlisted numbers. Please don’t count cell phones or landlines used ONLY for faxes or modems. 0 1 2 3 4 5 or more Refused/Not Answered Based on:

45 44 4 2 * 1 4 N=1,027

PPEDUCAT. (4 category) Less than high school High school Some college Bachelor’s degree or higher Based on:

10 32 29 29 N=1,027

PPETHM White, Non-Hispanic Black, Non-Hispanic Other, Non-Hispanic Hispanic 2+ Races, Non-Hispanic Based on:

66 11 5 15 4 N=1,027

PPGENDER Male

18

48

Female

52

Based on:

N=1,027

PPWORK Working – as a paid employee Working – self-employed Not working – on temporary layoff from a job Not working – looking for work Not working – retired Not working – disabled Not working - other Based on:

52 6 1 7 17 6 11 N=1,027

PPAGE Age group: 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Based on:

DM20.

22 34 26 19 N=1,027

And in which group does your total household [IF SINGLE: “PERSONAL”] income fall? [READ LIST] Under $10,000

6

$10,000 to under $20,000

7

$20,000 to under $30,000

9

$30,000 to under $40,000

11

$40,000 to under $50,000

7

$50,000 to under $75,000

21

$75,000 to under $100,000

12

$100,000 to under $150,000

21

$150,000 or more Based on:

8 N=1,027

CENSUS REGION: Northeast

18

Midwest

21

South

37

West

23

Based on:

19

N=1,027

AP-GfK Poll Methodology The Associated Press-GfK Poll was conducted October 15 to October 19, 2015 by GfK Public Affairs & Corporate Communications – a division of GfK Custom Research North America. This poll is based on a nationally-representative probability sample of 1,027 general population adults age 18 or older. The survey was conducted using the web-enabled KnowledgePanel®, a probability-based panel designed to be representative of the U.S. population. At inception participants were chosen scientifically by a random selection of telephone numbers and since 2009 through Address-based sampling using the post office’s delivery sequence file. Persons in these households are then invited to join and participate in the web-enabled KnowledgePanel®. For those who agree to participate, but do not already have Internet access, GfK provides at no cost a laptop and ISP connection. People who already have computers and Internet services are permitted to participate using their own equipment. Panelists then receive unique log-in information for accessing surveys online, and then are sent emails throughout each month inviting them to participate in research. The data were weighted to account for probabilities of selection, as well as age within sex, education, race, and phone type. The phone type targets came from the fall, 2012 MRI Consumer Survey. The other targets came from the March, 2012 Supplement of the Current Population Survey. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample of adults. The margin of sampling error is higher and varies for results based on sub-samples. In our reporting of the findings, percentage points are rounded off to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentages in a given table column may total slightly higher or lower than 100%. In questions that permit multiple responses, columns may total significantly more than 100%, depending on the number of different responses offered by each respondent. The cooperation rate for this poll was 48%. Trend data are displayed for selected questions from previous AP-GfK Polls that were conducted using telephone interviews with nationally-representative probability samples of adults age 18 or older. Details about all AP-GfK Polls are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com.

20