The economic environment for container shipping - JOC.com

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Equity Research

Asia Ex-Japan Infrastructure & Transport Jon Windham +852 2903 4672 [email protected]

The economic environment for container shipping 17 October 2012

The 6th Annual TPM Asia Conference

Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.

Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts based outside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 20.

Container demand overview

1. Slow, but accelerating economic growth 2. Lower container volume multiplier 3. Shorter trade lanes

Source: World Bank, Datastream, Barclays Research estimates.

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Barclays GDP forecast: Expecting acceleration in 2013 2010

2011

2012E

2013E

5.1

3.8

3.1

3.5

Developed

-2.5

1.3

1.3

1.3

Emerging

-8.1

6.5

5.1

5.6

US

-2.4

1.8

2.3

2.0

Euro area

-2.0

1.5

-0.5

0.3

Asia/ Pacific

-8.3

6.0

5.4

5.6

China

-10.5

9.2

7.5

7.6

India Latin America

-8.8

7.4

5.4

6.7

-6.3

4.5

3.2

4.0

Global

Trend

Source: World Bank, Datastream, Barclays Research estimates.

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Relationship between global GDP & volume growth 20%

Period

Container volume growth

18% 16%

14%

Global GDP

Container

Ratio

Growth

Growth

1974-80

3.4%

12.9%

3.8x

1981-90

3.4%

9.9%

3.0x

1991-2000

3.5%

9.6%

2.8x

2001-10

4.2%

10.4%

2.5x

2011-13E

3.9%

8.3%

2.2x

12% 10% 8% 6% 4%

2012

2013E

2% 0% 0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

Global GDP Note: 2009 is excluded from this chart for scale. 2009 Global GDP was -0.8% and global container volume growth was -10.6%. Source: World Bank, Datastream, Barclays Research estimates. .

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5 N. America to Europe

N. Asia to Europe

S. Asia to Europe

N. America to N. Asia

Europe to Africa

S. Asia to N. Asia

S. America to Europe

Africa to Europe

N. Asia to N. America

S. Asia to Africa

120

N. America to S. Asia

CIS to Europe

Europe to Middle East

Europe to N. America

S. Asia to N. America

N. America to S. America

N. America to Africa & ME

Middle East to Europe

N. Asia to Middle East

Europe to S. America

N. Asia to S. Asia

Europe to N. Asia

Europe t


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