the enacts approach - World Policy Institute

THE ENACTS APPROACH Transforming climate services in Africa one country at a time A World Policy Paper by Tufa Dinku,1 Remi Cousin,2 John del Corral,3 Pietro Ceccato,4Madeleine Thomson,5 Rija Faniriantsoa,6 Igor Khomyakov,7 Audrey Vadillo.8 March 2016

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Research Scientist in Climate and Environmental Monitoring at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society at the Earth Institute, Columbia University. 2

Staff Associate at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society – Columbia University

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Senior Staff Associate – Database, GIS, Semantic Technology at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society – Columbia University 4

Research Scientist and Lead, Environmental Monitoring Program at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society – Columbia University. 5

Senior Research Scientist at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society and Senior Scholar at the Mailman School of Public Health, Department of Environmental Health Sciences – at Columbia University; Director of the IRI/PAHO-WHO Collaborating Centre (US 306) for Early Warning Systems for Malaria and Other Climate Sensitive Diseases. 6

Staff Associate at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society – Columbia University.

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Systems Analyst/Programmer at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society – Columbia University.

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Staff Associate at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society – Columbia University.

ABOUT THE WORLD POLICY INSTITUTE The World Policy Institute, a non-partisan global think tank, engages fresh ideas and new voices from around the world to address critical shared challenges. The World Policy Institute and its flagship World Policy Journal provide a forum for solution-focused policy analysis and public debate in support of an inclusive and sustainable global market economy, effective and equitable governance, and integrated security strategies.

ABOUT THE PROGRAM FOR AFRICAN THOUGHT Africa is one of the most dynamic and important regions of the 21st century. However, at this exciting time in the continent’s development, there is an absence of African voices on the global stage. The World Policy Institute’s Program for African Thought (PATH) addresses this imbalance through a series of activities designed to enhance and expand the role of African thinkers in global policy debates. Through the building of local research capacity, the amplification of existing African commentary, and the promotion of African thought leaders, the Program looks to direct international attention towards ground-level thinkers and change-makers on the continent, bringing local insight into the heart of global affairs.

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ACPC

African Climate Policy Center

AGM AGRHYMET

Annual Global Monitoring Centre Regional de Formation et d'Application en Agrométéorologie et Hydrologie Opérationnelle

CCAFS

CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security

DfID

Department for International Development

ENACS ENSO

Enhancing National Climate Services El Niño-Southern Oscillation

GFCS

Global Framework for Climate Services

GPCC

Global Precipitation Climatology Centre

GTS

Global Telecommunication System

IOD

Indian Ocean Dipole

ICPAC

IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Center

IGAD

Intergovernmental Authority on Development

IRI

International Research Institute for Climate and Society

NIH

National Institute of Health

NMHS

National Meteorological and Hydrological Services

TAMSAT

Tropical Applications of Meteorology, using SATellite data and ground-based observations

UNDP

United Nations Development Program

USIAD

United States Agency for International Development

WMO

World Meteorological Organization

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Natural climate variability and long-term changes in rainfall and temperature are expected to have major impact in Africa, where most of the population depends on rain-fed agriculture for their food and livelihood. Reliable climate information will be crucial in efforts to build resilience against the negative impact of climate change and to maximize the benefits of favorable conditions. Historical climate data provides an opportunity to better understand the nature of climate variability and its impact on outcomes of importance to society such as agriculture, water, health and energy. It can also be used to help understand climate trends and changes in the frequency of extreme events by placing current observations and predicted changes in historical context. Armed with high-quality climate data, decision makers can better understand both how climate has varied in a particular place across seasons, years, or decades and the magnitude and frequency of past extreme events. As a result, they will be better able to contextualize current climate and future climate forecasts. Climate data could thus support a suite of climate-smart solutions able to reinforce development gains and improve the lives of those most vulnerable to climate variability and change. However, climate information is not widely used in Africa to make development decisions. This is mainly because useful information is often not available or, if it does exist, is inaccessible to those that need it most. Currently, the primary source of climate data is observation by ground-based weather stations across the continent. The main strength of these station observations is that they give the true measurements of the climate variable of interest. However, in many parts of Africa stations are sparse, declining in number, and unevenly distributed. For example, while the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) recommends a minimum of one rainfall station for every 15 to 25 km depending on geography, the current station coverage in Africa is a small and declining

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fraction of this requirement. Compounding this problem, the distribution of existing stations is uneven, with most located in cities and towns along major roads. As a result, coverage tends to be worse in rural areas, exactly where livelihoods may be most vulnerable to climate variability and climate change. Where station records do exist, they are often of poor quality, with many gaps in the data. Limited technical capacity and inadequate data sharing policies within the national meteorological agencies make it difficult to access the limited data that does exist. As a result, many African meteorological agencies have difficulty providing even the most basic of climate information to decision makers. In an effort to address this lack of climate data, the World Bank is currently investing heavily in hydrometeorological services in Africa1 as an effort to close what they believe to be a US$1Bn investment gap. They note that modernizing infrastructure must coincide with better institutions and regulations, improved services, adequate budgets for operational costs, and integration with regional and global centers. Incremental changes are clearly inadequate for the development of climate information in Africa. However, action on the most critical climate issues cannot wait until all necessary investment has been made. Besides, future investments may not help in filling gaps in past observations. A new approach to the development of climate information services has been developed - one that takes advantage of the climate data currently available from National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and integrates them with freely available global products to create higher quality climate information than is currently available. Importantly, users are able to access data and derived information products immediately, without waiting for the necessary improvements in observation networks. However, when these new resources and observational data do become available they can rapidly be absorbed into the integrated data system. ENACTS: Increasing Access, Availability, and Use of Climate Data The ENACTS (Enhancing National Climate Services) initiative, led by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) of Columbia University, is a unique, multi-faceted initiative designed to bring climate knowledge into national decision-making by improving availability, access to, and use of climate information. Availability of climate data is improved by combining quality-controlled data from national observation networks with satellite estimates for rainfall, elevation maps, and reanalysis products for temperature. Access to information products is enhanced by making derived information products available online. The use of climate information is facilitated by engaging and collaborating with potential users. 1

http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/speech/2015/06/02/transforming-weather-climate-and-hydrological-services-in-africa

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ENACTS has already been implemented in the following eight African countries: Ethiopia, The Gambia, Ghana, Madagascar, Mali, Rwanda, Tanzania and Zambia, and there are plans to add at least two more in 2016. Implementation has already started in Kenya, and Uganda will follow within a couple of months. ENACTS has also been implemented at a regional level in West Africa in collaboration with the Agriculture, Hydrology, and Meteorology (AGRHYMET) Center in Niamey, Niger. Implementation has also started at the IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Center (ICAPC) in East Africa.

Two avenues for future investment in ENACTS In order to maximize the impact of the ENACTS system in confronting climate change, investment must be made in both the strengthening and the scaling up of ENACTS. 1. Strengthening ENACTS where it has been implemented:

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Add more climate variables such as relative humidity, evapotranspiration and sunshine hours;

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Improve the accuracy and presentation of seasonal and sub-seasonal forecasts;

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Develop application-specific map rooms and other products;

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Create decision support systems for specific decision-making processes such as hydropower dam management, crop yield forecasting, malaria monitoring and early warning;

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Strengthening engagement with stakeholders.

2. Scale up ENACTS:

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ENACTS is currently in eight countries. Scaling to other countries would require building technical capacity within the continent.


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PART I. AVAILABILITY OF CLIMATE DATA IN AFRICA

Africa’s current climate observation capacity is insufficient, with the number and quality of weather stations in many parts of the continent in decline. Available stations are unevenly distributed, with most located near the main roads in towns and cities. Factors Contributing to the Scarcity of Climate Data in Africa There are a number of factors contributing to the sparse station network and the decline in the number weather stations over many parts of Africa. Each October, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) carries out their Annual Global Monitoring (AGM) survey. Results from that survey clearly demonstrate the paucity of climate reporting from Africa. When comparing the percentage of climate data reports received by the WMO during 2011-2013 with the number of reports required by the WMO from the different regions, Africa’s contribution, at less than 40% of the requirement, is the smallest. More worrying is that this includes South Africa, where the density of stations is significantly higher than those of other countries and thus raises the average.

Figure 1: Percentage of minimum required reports from regional climatological networks achieved by region (WMO’s Annual Global Monitoring)

Difficult Geography & Terrain Difficult geography and terrain contribute to the sparse distribution of the observation network in many parts of the continent. Mountains, forests, and deserts make installation and maintenance difficult, limiting the number of observation stations outside of cities and towns. For example, both

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the Sahara desert and the Congo River basin, with its dense forest, lack meaningful density of reporting stations. In addition, poor road access outside of major cities and towns limits the number of stations in rural areas.

Figure 2: the average number of stations per 10,000 square km contributing to the widely used gridded rainfall product from the Global Precipitation Climatology Projects (GPCC; Becker et al 2013).

Lack of Investment Lack of investment in climate infrastructure has been a major impediment to the collection of climate data for many African countries. For example, in the 30 years from 1971-2001 the average number of stations from which the National Meteorological Agency of Madagascar was reporting declined from over 400 to under 50.

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Figure 3: Number of reporting weather stations in Madagascar during the 1971-2014 period (Data Source: Direction General de Meteorology, Madagascar)

Political Conflict Conflict or political upheavals can also result in the disruption of observation networks. Following the 1994 genocide in Rwanda, the meteorological observation network was devastated, taking nearly 15-years to return to its pre-genocide level. These gaps in observation are problematic when


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attempting to analyze past patterns and project future long-term trends.

Figure 4: Average number of reporting weather stations in Rwanda during 1981 to 2013. Note the drastic drop in 1994. (Data source: Meteo Rwanda)

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PART II. BRIDGING GAPS IN CLIMATE AND OBSERVATION SERVICES IN AFRICA

ENACTS strives to improve decision makers’ access to high quality climate information by using local observations and globally available proxies, to provide vital climate data and information in otherwise poorly covered areas. The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) , the Earth Institute, at Columbia University, in collaboration with NMHS and partners, has been leading an ambitious effort to simultaneously improve the availability of, access to, and use of climate information at the national level. The resulting ENACTS (Enhancing National Climate Services) initiative focuses on the creation of reliable and actionable climate information that is suitable for national and local decision-making.

Improving Data Availability, Access, and Use The goal of ENACTS is to transform how decision makers take climate sensitive decisions at the local, regional, and national levels. This is done by improving the availability of timely, relevant, high-quality climate information at relevant spatial and temporal scales, and working to promote the effective use of this data. ENACTS Objectives: i.

Improve the availability and quality of climate data and information products at the local, national, and regional levels.

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Enhance access to climate data, information products, and services relevant to the needs of the public, national and local practitioners in climate sensitive sectors, policy makers, the private sector, and researchers.

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Promote the widespread use of climate information and services by pursuing effective stakeholder engagement and unleashing pent up demand for climate information.


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Improving Data Quality and Availability By integrating ground-based observations with proxy satellite and other data, ENACTS products and services overcome issues of data scarcity and poor data quality. As a result ENACTS datasets are spatially and temporally continuous, allowing for the characterization of climate risks at local, as well as national, scales, and offering low-cost, high impact support for applications and research. ENACTS improves the availability of climate data by both organizing and instituting qualitycontrol measures on all data (whether used for ENACTS or not) from national observation networks, and combining this data with data from proxies -- satellite estimates for rainfall, digital elevation models, and reanalysis products for temperature. The main advantages of integrating these proxies are that they: (i) offer spatially complete data; (ii) are freely available; (iii) have a relatively long time series of 30+ years for satellite rainfall products and 50+ years for reanalysis products, thus providing broader coverage over a longer time-frame at a lower cost. ENACTS integrates these two data sources (station measurements and proxies) by using station observations – which are more accurate, but geographically limited – to evaluate and correct the errors in the proxies, which are spatially complete, but less accurate (Dinku et al 2014).

Figure 5: Station observations (left) of rainfall from the operational network in Ghana are combined with satellite rainfall estimates (center) to produce a spatially complete and more accurate product (right).

The approach thus combines the spatial information from the proxies with the accuracy from point station measurements. The final products are datasets with 30 or more years of rainfall and temperature time-series data at a ten-daily (dekadal) time scale for every 4km grid across a country. While the quality of the final products is inevitably dependent on the number, spatial distribution, and quality of the station observations, the result is a great improvement on what was previously

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available.

With rainfall, satellite estimates are available for use as a reliable proxy. However, there are no reliable temperature estimates that go back 30 years; as a result, climate model reanalysis products are used as the proxy. One of the challenges in using reanalysis products is their coarse spatial resolution. Thus, they need to be downscaled to 4km resolution. Figure 6 provides an example of a combined minimum temperature map along with the individual station inputs from Zambia. Even the raw coarse resolution reanalysis field exhibits a spatial structure similar to that of station measurements, except that the reanalysis overestimates temperature values over some parts of the country. Downscaling and merging with station observations improve the data progressively. The merged product is very close to station measurements and provides high-quality data even where

Figure 6: Station measurements of minimum temperature (top left), reanalysis data at its original resolution of 50km (top right), reanalysis downscaled to 4km (bottom left) and merged station-reanalysis (bottom right) over Zambia, 2nd 10 –day period of October 1982.


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there are no station observations. One of the strengths of ENACTS is that by working directly with NMHS, it harnesses all local observational data, incorporating high definition information that globally produced or modeled products rarely access. Figure 7 compares three different station networks from Ethiopia. The data from synoptic network (17 stations) is shared with the world everyday through the WMO’s Global Telecommunication System (GTS). These are the stations used in most of the global merged station-satellite products, and as a result they form the backbone of data available to decision makers. Stations from the operational network (about 90) report every day, but are not shared through GTS. Some or all of these stations are used in gridded products such as those from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC). The ENACTS stations (about 600) are used to create the standard ENACTS product for Ethiopia. The ENACTS stations are not the only stations operating in Ethiopia. These are just the ones selected to be used in generating the ENACTS rainfall data product.

Figure 7: Distribution of synoptic (left) operational (center) and ENACTS (right) stations over Ethiopia. The background is elevation in meters

Enhancing Access to Climate Information Even the best data has no value if not accessed and used. The ENACTS approach makes access to climate information products easier by making information products available online. This is accomplished by customizing and installing the very powerful IRI Data Library (Blumenthal et al. 2014) at the NMHS and developing an online mapping service that provides user-friendly tools for the analysis, visualization, and download of climate information products. The online tool (Figure 8) currently includes three “map rooms,” one each for climate analysis, climate monitoring, and climate forecast. The climate analysis map room provides information on the mean climate at any given location or at national and sub-national levels. The climate monitoring map room enables users to monitor the current season, allowing for its comparison to either the mean or to data from recent years. 13

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Information can be extracted and presented at any administrative level, enabling focus on a specific area of interest. The climate forecast map room translates seasonal forecasts to values that may more easily be understood by users and enables analyses of the impact of different phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on rainfall and temperature.

Promoting the Use of Climate Information

Figure 8: Climate Analysis and Application map room for Ethiopia, consisting of Climate Analysis, Climate Monitoring and Climate Forecast tools

While generating climate information products and making them available online makes it easier for people to access the data, it does not mean that they will do so. Users need to be made aware of these products, their value and their applications. This requires training and hands-on experience as well as an effort to include users in the development of additional information products that would serve their specific needs. ENACTS promotes the use of climate information by facilitating this engagement and collaborating with users to maintain constant dialogue and iterative interactions with different user groups. In the past, efforts to engage users have included:

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Engaging the Ethiopian health community from the earliest stages of ENACTs development

through the government’s Climate and Health Working Group (Thomson et al. 2014).

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Consulting with agriculture and water users in Ethiopia and Sahelian countries through

workshops organized in collaboration with the National Meteorology Agency of Ethiopia (NMA) and the AGRHYMET Center. In these workshops participants helped identify data and information gaps as well as areas that need improvement.

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Having Ethiopia’s National Meteorological Agency present its ENACTS map rooms to

members of the country’s Parliament as well as users from different regions to familiarize them with the system and interface.


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Collaborating with the Madagascar Meteorological Agency to provide workshops for the

health and environmental sectors - launching ENACTS in the country and introducing the new information products to practitioners.

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Publicly launching ENACTS for Tanzania and organizing two different workshops

specifically for the health community in partnership with the Tanzanian Meteorological Agency. The first focused on the specific use of climate information products in malaria stratification, early warning systems, and impact assessment for malaria interventions (Dinku et al., 2014). The theme of the second workshop was the strengthening of national climate data and information for malaria decision-making.3

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http://www.rbm.who.int/mechanisms/climate-malaria-meeting-2014.html

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PART III. PROPOSALS

In order for Africa to see the full benefit of ENACTS, the program must be scaled up to include more countries. In addition, an increase in the number of climate variables being monitored as well as the development of sector-specific information products would improve impact and uptake by relevant decision makers.

Figure 9: Countries where ENACTS has been implemented at national and regional levels

Strengthening ENACTS ENACTS has already been implemented in eight countries in Africa and at regional level in West


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Africa in collaboration with the Centre Regional de Formation et d'Application en Agrométéorologie et Hydrologie Opérationnelle (AGRHYMET) Centre (Fig. 11). More countries are expected to implement ENACTS during 2016.

ENACTS products have generated a great deal of interest in the meteorological, humanitarian, and development communities. As a result, strengthening and replicating ENACTS in other countries is a key priority. To do this, it will be necessary to both strengthen current ENACTS networks while expanding ENACTS to other countries. Strengthening ENACTS in the countries where it has already been implemented will entail: •

Increasing the number of climate variables reported: Variables such as relative humidity,

evapotranspiration, and sunshine hours are all important for applications such as agriculture and water resource management. Integrating them into ENACTS would empower those seeking to improve yields while managing scarce resources. •

Improving seasonal and sub-seasonal forecasts: Improving data availability provides an

opportunity to improve seasonal prediction at the national level. The use of 30 years or more of gridded data would enable high-resolution forecasts to be provided. Upgrading seasonal prediction would involve evaluating past forecasts throughout the country, improving forecasting by exploring different predictors and methodologies, and implementing the improved forecast. The resulting forecast products would then have to be made available in a format that users can easily understand and use. •

Developing sector-specific products: The current map rooms are mostly generic in that they do

not target specific users. The next version of ENACTS will include map rooms for applications in specific sectors such as agriculture, water, health, and disaster early warning. These new map rooms will be developed in consultation with relevant user groups. Health map rooms for a number of countries have already started to be developed and will be built upon. •

Creating support systems for decision-making processes: Creating support systems for decision

makers would allow for more efficient management of a number of processes, services, and programs including hydropower dams, improved and expanded crop yield forecasting, malaria monitoring, and early warning systems. Scaling Up ENACTS The second area of investment would be expanding ENACTS to other countries. While the efforts of IRI and its NMHS and development partners have been offering a strong practical example of climate services development in Africa, substantial funding will be needed to scale up the activities and benefit from returns-to-scale. There are many potential opportunities for synergy among current

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and planned donor initiatives including GFCS, UNDP, USAID, DfID, and World Bank efforts. All could benefit greatly from better basic information for their evidence-based priority setting and evaluation processes. ENACTS aligns tightly with the objectives of GFCS five pillars (GFCS, 2014), and the recent US launch of the Climate Services for Resilient Development Partnership. Expansion could be made cost-effective and efficient by building technical capacity within the continent. This could be accomplished by training and working with regional and continental climate institutions.


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PART IV. Summary Climate information must play a crucial role in national development planning. High quality climate data allows decision makers to better manage risks and maximize opportunities from a changing climate. Availability of decision-relevant information about the past climate, recent trends, likely future trajectories, and associated impacts is thus a prerequisite for climate-informed decision making. However, the declining availability of observation data in African countries threatens the quality of climate science and information products at all scales from local to national, regional to global. Climate observation networks in many parts of Africa face challenges that limit the availability of even the most basic climate information. As a result, useful information is often not available or, if it does exist, is inaccessible to those that need it most. One effort to improve the availability of climate data and information products is the Enhancing National Climate Services (ENACTS) initiative, which is led by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI). ENACTS focuses on the creation of reliable climate information that is suitable for all levels of decision-making. Through ENACTS, data availability is improved by combining quality-controlled data from the national observation network with proxies such as satellite and reanalysis products. Online tools for data analysis, visualization, and engagement make the data available to stakeholders, while ongoing engagement ensures that it will be meaningfully deployed. IRI's efforts and experience with partners to date has clearly demonstrated how observations from weather stations in African countries can be used to develop quality-controlled datasets that provide the basis for climate science and information services. They have also shown how 'best available' data can be developed at the national level by blending local observations with globally available data products; and how through engagement with the national meteorological agencies, this data can be evaluated and further improved. Training of national meteorological agencies in this process is thus an investment in capacity that can ensure the continuous improvement of the data. Through training and the raising of user awareness about the enhanced datasets, a broad spectrum of actors will be able to incorporate climate information into their decision-making processes, improving both climate and development outcomes. For all of its benefits, ENACTS data products cannot replace the need for increasing the climate observation network in Africa. The main focus of ENACTS is making the best use of the available data from national and global sources, and the ENACTS approach could help to reduce the number of stations needed for measuring rainfall and temperature. However, investment in observation 19

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systems is still needed to meet the Africa’s climate data requirement.


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APPENDIX ENACTS Partners Different partners have contributed to the success of ENACTS. The National Meteorology Agency of Ethiopia deserves special credit for being the first country to implement ENACTS. Having developed the model it is now easy for another NMHS’ to decide whether or not to implement ENACTS thanks to the Ethiopian Meteorology Agency’s decision to implement what was then only a concept. The Tropical Applications of Meteorology, using SATellite data and ground-based observations (TAMSAT) at the University of Reading was the major technical partner when the project was started in Ethiopia. As a partner in the first project, the TAMSAT team generated 30-years of satellite rainfall estimates over Africa, which had not previously existed. Google.org, the philanthropic arm of Google.com, provided the initial funding when the ENACTS project was first started in Ethiopia, funding that was critical for the birth of the ENACTS initiative. Different organizations have since supported the implementation of ENACTS in the different countries. These include United States Agency for International Development (USAID), National Aeronautic and Space Administration (NASA), the African Climate Policy Center (ACPC), the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), National Institute of Health (NIH) in the US, World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and United Kingdom Department for International Development (DfID).

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International Research Institute for Climate and Society (2006): A Gap Analysis for the Implementation of the Global Climate Observing System Programme in Africa. IRI Technical Report No. IRI-TR/06/1, New York; 2006. International Research Institute for Climate and Society(2005): Sustainable development in Africa: Is the climate right? IRI Technical Note No. IRI-TR/05/1. New York; 2005. Thomson, M. C., S. J. Connor, S. Mason, B. Platzer, J. Omumbo, G. Mantilla, P. Ceccato and M. Jancloes (2014). Climate and Health in Africa. Earth Perspectives: Transdisciplinarity Enabled ,1(17). Washington R, Harrison M, Conway D, Black E, Challinor A, Grimes D, Jones R, Morse A, Kay G, Todd M(2006): Africa climate change: Taking the short route. Bulletin of American Meteorological Society, 87: 1355-1366. Wilby, R., 2014 – Final Report: Climate for Develoment in Africa (Clim-Dev) – Climate Services for Africa – Strategic Research Opportuitioes for ClimDev. Evidence on Demand, UK (2014) 84 pp. [DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.12774/eod_cr.may2014.wilbyrnew_data_approaches_GSDR_chapter_09Mar2015.docx] World Metrological Organization 2014: Implementation Plan of the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS). WMO Geneva. 2014. World Meteorological Organization (2008): Guide to Hydrological Practices. WMO-168. WMO: Geneva, 2008.

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