Conflict not only tears countries apart but also leads to divided societies plagued by political and social tensions and
(DRAFT as of 18 December 2017)
The EU-UN Electoral Conflict Prevention Toolbox – Concept Note –
I.
Introduction
Conflict not only tears countries apart but also leads to divided societies plagued by political and social tensions and grievances. Violence and armed conflicts undermine efforts to foster inclusive, peaceful societies and prevent countries from establishing robust and stable democratic institutions needed for peace and development. Indeed, if not tackled adequately and quickly, initial societal unrest and tensions can degenerate into prolonged conflict causing many victims and widespread devastation. Moreover, the socio-economic costs related to postconflict reconstruction are often enormous, making the investment in prevention a far better option. Credible electoral processes are essential for conferring legitimacy to the national and local governments. When successful, electoral processes offer the means of channelling social conflict into respectful and constructive debate and provide the opportunity to citizens to voice their preference and elect their representatives. They can offer a safe, predictable, rule-bound method for arbitrating political and social conflict through the selection of representatives and confer the legitimacy garnered by the consent of the people for programs and policies. On the other hand, precisely because the elections are about competition for political power, they can be catalysts of existing conflict in society. While there are different sources and types of conflicts, political events such as elections, particularly in fragile states, have the potential to trigger conflicts and violence. Indeed, all stages of the electoral cycle pose a risk of sparking violence, including political intimidation before and during voting, escalation of social tensions when approaching the election day, or political crises that may emerge after the elections. Experiences from around the world show that elections, which are simultaneously exercises of human rights, freedom of expression, and a key element of democratic governance, can be a catalyst or accelerator of conflict. Therefore, there is a clear urgency to understand the complicated nexus between elections and conflict prevention.
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II.
Background
Conflict prevention has been placed among the top priorities of the international development community, as emphasized in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG), specifically the SDG 16 which aims to “Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all and build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels”. Moreover, it is also at the cornerstone of the agenda of the new Secretary General of the United Nations, as well as the European Union (EU). Acknowledging both the significance and immense challenge of sustaining peace, the UN Security Council and General Assembly adopted identical resolutions on 27 April 2016, emphasizing the need for greater collaboration with key stakeholders, including regional organizations and specifically calling for “close strategic and operational partnerships between the United Nations, national governments and other key stakeholders, including international, regional and sub-regional organizations, international financial institutions, civil society organizations, women’s groups, youth organizations, and the private sector, taking into account national priorities and policies”1 In addition, the 2014/2015 ‘High-level Independent Panel on Peace Operations’ undertook a thorough review of United Nations peace operations mechanisms and highlighted the need to change the way in which the UN address conflicts and design strategies for conflict prevention.2 Conflict analysis should be the fundamental cornerstone of this new approach, allowing for more responsive deployment of UN peacekeeping missions and tailor-made solutions. More specifically, in 2016, a new ‘Policy Directive on Preventing and Mitigating Election-related Violence’3 was issued by the Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs, UN Focal Point for electoral matters, emphasizing the need of updating and reviewing UNDP programming guidance in elections and conflict prevention to reflect current thinking and conflict dynamics around the electoral cycle4. The EU has also integrated conflict prevention measures to its foreign policies orientations through Conflict Prevention, Peace building and Mediation. The European External Action Service 1
Security Council Resolution 2282 (2016) and General Assembly Resolution 70/626, available at https://www.un.org/en/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=A/RES/70/262 and https://www.un.org/en/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=S/RES/2282(2016)&referer=/english/&Lang=E 2 High-Level Independent Panel on Peace Operations, http://futurepeaceops.org/hippo/. 3 See: United Nations Department of Political Affairs, Policy Directive Preventing and Mitigating Election-related Violence, 1 June 2016, Ref. FP/01/2016. 4 UNDP, Elections and Conflict Prevention: A Guide to Analysis, Planning and Programming, 2009. http://www.undp.org/content/undp/en/home/librarypage/democraticgovernance/electoral_systemsandprocesses/elections-and-conflict-prevention-guide.html . UNDP has identified several areas where further exploration of the topic and cases studies is needed, including the impact for women and youth, and their potential role in creating supporting structures of peace around the electoral cycle.
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(EEAS) has centred its core action on early analysis of risk of violent conflict, improved understanding of conflict situations (identification of the root causes, the actors and dynamics), but also on mediation and dialogue which are key components of EU preventive actions. The EU and UNDP are two of the largest electoral assistance providers globally and share a common vision of the fundamental role that elections play in supporting the long-term improvement of countries’ democratic capacities. This long partnership in electoral assistance has allowed the two organizations to combine their strengths and to partner on more than 100 electoral assistance projects since 2006, for a total value of over 1 billion USD. In order to support this partnership, the two organizations established the Joint Task Force on Electoral Assistance (JTF), a Brussels-based coordination mechanism that has the aim of increasing the overall efficiency and adherence of the projects to the common EC-UNDP strategic approach. While the JTF will provide overall coordination and support, the entire process is expected to be driven in equal parts by all relevant EU and UN entities, including UNDP, European External Action Service (EEAS), European Commission, European Parliament and other relevant EU and UN entities. They will provide input and expertise at all stages of the development and review of the toolbox. Moreover, their experience, analysis and expectations will be the main driving force behind the process. As such, this project is envisaged and designed to be a close collaborative effort at the institutional level between the EU and the UN.
III.
Methodology
The toolbox development process will consist of several stages, including: 1. Research and drafting of background policy papers (regional studies and an overview of EU/UN architecture on conflict prevention) – February-May 2018 2. Development of the draft practical toolbox – May-June 2018 3. Global conference – 27-29 June 2018 4. Finalization of the practical toolbox, developing e-learning and launching website – JulySeptember 2018 5. Piloting/testing period with joint projects – September 2018-September 2019 6. Stock-taking workshop and review/update of the toolbox/e-Learning – September 2019 To initiate the project, one Senior Consultant will be recruited to draft two research papers: one, an in-depth policy research study on the existing UN/UNDP and EU policy framework, outlining relevant documents and literature, experiences and best practices regarding electoral conflict; and second, a thematic research study to provide an insight on various key areas linked to conflict 3
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prevention and mitigation, such as the role of civil society organisations, media, political parties, dialogue, electoral dispute resolution, early warning mechanisms. Parallel to this, under guidance of the Senior Consultant and overall management by the UNDP Senior Electoral Advisor, several short-term consultants will be engaged to research and draft regional studies in Africa, the Arab States, Asia-Pacific, Europe and CIS, and Latin America, which will set the broad parameters of the conference (see below) and facilitate the discussion and debate. The consultants are expected to conduct desk reviews of all relevant projects, past and present, in their respective regions and furthermore, conduct field research in the following countries (final list to be confirmed): 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
Latin America/Caribbean - Honduras, El Salvador Arab States - Lebanon, Tunisia Africa - Kenya, Guinea, Liberia, Zimbabwe Asia-Pacific – Nepal, Pakistan Europe/CIS - Kyrgyzstan, Armenia
The regional studies will not be a historical analysis, but rather an assessment of the prevention/conflict resolution tools that were successfully used in those contexts, such as early warning mechanisms, dialogue, result management systems, elections complaints and appeals, dialogue with political parties and CSOs, electoral observation, etc. In order to accomplish this, Senior Consultant will coordinate the regional studies to ensure coherency with the policy/thematic paper. In this task, Senior Consultant will be supported by relevant EU/UNDP staff members working on conflict prevention. A methodology for the regional studies will be proposed by the Senior Consultant based on the draft already developed. Field visits are expected to take place in all regions for the experts to meet with a wide range of stakeholders, including civil society, political parties, election practitioners, media, etc. In certain cases, the experts may conduct limited surveys to collect raw data on conflicts and prevention measures. Where field visits are not possible, the consultants will liaise remotely with the UN Country Offices, EU delegations and relevant stakeholders to receive the data needed for the case studies. As a second phase, building on best practices identified in the studies and in close consultations with both organisations, Senior Consultant will produce a draft toolbox. The toolbox will contain practical examples and solutions on the ways to integrate prevention/conflict resolution concepts into programmes and projects activities. As both organizations strive towards more responsive and fit-for-purpose democratic governance and peace-building mechanisms, the toolbox will identify different options for strategic programming that can help to anticipate and 4
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prevent conflicts. Moreover, the toolbox is also intended as a source of knowledge for numerous stakeholders, including election practitioners, justice and security institutions, civil society, political parties, media and others to improve design, planning and implementation of electoral conflict prevention measures. As a third step, a 3-day global conference will be held in Brussels, Belgium in June 2018, bringing together election practitioners, electoral management bodies (EMBs), civil society organisations, international experts, EU and UN/UNDP experts and other relevant stakeholders playing a role in the prevention of electoral conflict. The Senior Consultant and other consultants are expected to summarize and present the main findings of the papers to the audience and participate to the discussions. The conference conclusions will feed into a final version of the toolbox, which will be presented as a publication which will identify clear activities to be potentially implemented into future electoral assistance projects. Once the toolbox is completed, a corresponding E-learning module will be developed, to be used in conjunction with the publication. The E-learning and the publication will be hosted on a dedicated webpage linked to the main JTF website (http://www.ec-undp-electoralassistance.org/) Lastly, the activities identified in the toolbox will be piloted into joint EU/UN projects for a one year period and a review will be published thereafter. A final workshop, planned for the fourth quarter of 2019, will be organised to assess the success of these pilot projects.
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