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THE FIELD POLL
THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 AS THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY MERVIN FIELD
Field Research Corporation 601 California Street, Suite 210 San Francisco, CA 94108-2814 (415) 392-5763 FAX: (415) 434-2541 EMAIL:
[email protected] www.field.com/fieldpollonline
Release #2525
Release Date: Monday, January 11, 2016
OBAMA CONTINUES TO RECEIVE HIGH OVERALL JOB MARKS FROM CALIFORNIA VOTERS.
IMPORTANT: Contract for this service is subject to revocation if publication or broadcast takes place before release date or if contents are divulged to persons outside of subscriber staff prior to release time. (ISSN 0195-4520)
By Mark DiCamillo, Director, The Field Poll As President Barack Obama prepares to give his final State of the Union address to the nation tomorrow night, the latest statewide Field Poll finds that a 56% majority of Californians approve of the job he is doing as President. Just 36% disapprove. While the President's approval rating is down slightly from 60% who felt this way last October, it remains a far more positive assessment than how the broader U.S. public views his performance. Buttressing Californians' more positive assessment of the President are their generally favorable opinions about the job he is doing handling the nation's economy. A 57% majority of voters statewide approve of Obama’s stewardship of the economy, while just 37% disapprove. Voters offer more mixed assessments of Obama's handling of the nation's foreign policy, threats of terrorism against the country, and the way he is dealing with the extremist group Islamic State (ISIS) in Syria and Iraq. Statewide, 50% of Californians approve of the President's handling of the nation's foreign policy, a like proportion (50%) say this about his handling of the terrorist threat, while 42% approve of the job he is doing dealing with ISIS. These findings come from the latest Field Poll, completed among 1,003 registered voters by telephone throughout California in late December and early January. Californians continue to approve of Obama's overall performance as President President Obama continues to receive very positive overall job performance marks from California voters. At present, 56% approve of the President's performance while 36% disapprove. However, this assessment is down slightly from a 60% positive to 33% negative rating three months ago, it remains a far more positive assessment than how the broader U.S. public views his performance. A compilation of the average of public opinion polls assessing the President's job performance nationally by RealClearPolitics shows that just 45% of Americans approve of Obama's performance, while 51% disapprove. Field Research Corporation is an Equal Opportunity Employer
The Field Poll Monday, January 11, 2016
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Views of the President's performance continue to be highly partisan, with 84% of Democrats approving, compared to just 14% among the state's Republicans. Table 1 Trend of Barack Obama's job performance as President (among California registered voters) Approve
Disapprove
No opinion
January 2016
56%
36
8
October 2015
60%
33
7
February 2015
57%
36
7
May 2015
53%
35
12
February 2015
57%
36
7
September 2014
45%
43
12
June 2014
50%
39
11
April 2014
53%
41
6
December 2013
51%
43
6
July 2013
52%
35
13
February 2013
62%
33
5
September 2012
58%
35
7
July 2012
55%
39
6
May 2012
53%
39
8
February 2012
53%
39
8
November 2011
48%
44
8
September 2011
46%
44
10
June 2011
54%
37
9
March 2011
54%
37
9
September 2010
53%
41
6
July 2010
54%
39
7
March 2010
52%
37
11
January 2010
56%
34
10
October 2009
60%
31
9
March 2009
65%
21
14
Democrats
84%
12
4
Republicans
14%
78
8
No party preference/others
56%
32
12
Party registration (January 2016)
The Field Poll Monday, January 11, 2016
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Californians continue to approve Obama's handling of the nation's economy, appraisals more mixed in regard to foreign policy Underpinning Californians' generally favorable view of the overall job performance of President are generally positive assessments of the job he is doing in handling the nation's economy. The latest poll finds 57% of voters statewide approving, and just 37% disapproving of Obama's stewardship of the nation's economy. Voter assessments of the job Obama is doing handling the nation's foreign policy are more mixed, with 50% approving and 41% disapproving. Both assessments are similar those observed by The Field Poll last year. Voter opinions about the President's handling of these issues, like those of his overall job performance, are polarized depending on voters' party affiliation. Among Democrats 82% approve of the job the President is doing on the economy and 72% say this about his stewardship of foreign policy. By contrast, just 17% and 15% of Republicans, respectively, approve of Obama's handling of the nation's economy and its foreign policy.
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Table 2 Updating how Californians rate the job President Obama is doing in handling the nation's economy and its foreign policy (among California registered voters) Approve
Disapprove
No opinion
January 2016
57%
37
6
October 2015
58%
36
6
May 2015
55%
33
12
February 2015
57%
36
7
April 2014
48%
47
5
December 2013
49%
45
6
September 2010
48%
47
5
July 2010
47%
44
9
January 2010
44%
50
6
October 2009
60%
35
5
March 2009
61%
31
8
Democrats
81%
14
5
Republicans
17%
77
6
No party preference/others
62%
30
8
January 2016
50%
41
9
February 2015
49%
42
9
October 2015
44%
44
12
April 2014
49%
44
7
December 2013
49%
40
11
October 2009
58%
29
13
March 2009
63%
16
21
Democrats
72%
18
10
Republicans
15%
82
3
No party preference/others
53%
35
12
The economy
Party registration (January 2016)
Foreign policy
Party registration (January 2016)
The Field Poll Monday, January 11, 2016
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Mixed assessments of the President's handling of the threat of terrorism and ISIS Californians also hold more mixed views of Obama's handling of the terrorism threat and the way he is dealing with ISIS. About half of voters statewide (50%) currently approve of Obama's handling of the terrorist threat, while only 42% say this about the job the President is doing handling ISIS. Views about the President's performance in both areas are again highly partisan, with majorities of Democrats approving his performance in these areas, while large majorities of Republicans disapprove. Table 3 How Californians rate the job President Obama is doing in handling the threat of terrorism and ISIS (among California registered voters) Approve
Disapprove
No opinion
Handling the threat of terrorism January 2016
50%
42
8
January 2010
41%
48
11
Democrats
74%
16
10
Republicans
11%
82
7
No party preference/others
53%
39
8
42%
43
15
Democrats
58%
26
16
Republicans
14%
80
6
No party preference/others
44%
30
26
Party registration (January 2016)
Handling the extremist group Islamic State January 2016 Party registration
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The Field Poll Monday, January 11, 2016
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Information About The Survey Methodological Details The findings in this report are based on a Field Poll completed December 15, 2015-January 3, 2016 among 1,003 registered voters in California. Interviews were administered by telephone using live interviewers in English and Spanish. In order to cover a broad range of issues and minimize voter fatigue, some of the questions in this report are based on a random subsample of either 470 or 533 registered voters statewide. Individual voters were sampled at random from listings derived from the statewide voter registration rolls. Once a voter's name and telephone number had been selected, interviews were attempted with voters on their landline or cell phone depending on the source of the listing from the voter file and the preference of the voter. Up to four attempts were made to reach, screen and interview each randomly selected voter on different days and times of day during the interviewing period. After the completion of interviewing, the sample was weighted to align it to the proper distribution of voters by race/ethnicity and other demographic, geographic and party registration characteristics of the state's registered voter population. Sampling error estimates applicable to the results of any probability-based survey depend on sample size and the percentage distributions being examined. The maximum sampling error for results from the overall registered voter sample is +/- 3.2 percentage points, while the maximum sampling error for findings from each of the random subsamples is +/- 4.5 percentage points. These estimates are based on survey findings in the middle of the sampling distribution (i.e., results at or near 50%). Percentages at or near either end of the tail of the distributions (i.e., results closer to 10% or 90%) have somewhat smaller margins of error. There are other potential sources of error in probability sample surveys of public opinion besides sampling error. However, the overall design and execution of this survey sought to minimize these other errors. The Field Poll was established in 1947 as The California Poll by Mervin Field. The Poll has operated continuously since then as an independent, non-partisan survey of California public opinion. The Field Poll receives financial support from leading California newspapers and television stations, who purchase the rights of first release to Field Poll reports in their primary viewer or readership markets. The Poll also receives funding from the University of California and California State University systems, who receive the data files from each Field Poll survey shortly after its completion for teaching and secondary research purposes, as well as from foundations, non-profit organizations, and others as part of the Poll's policy research sponsor program. Questions Asked Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job President Obama is doing in handling the nation's economy?* Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job President Obama is doing in handling of the nation's foreign policy?* Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job President Obama is doing in handling the extremist group known as the Islamic State or ISIS in Iraq and Syria?* Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job President Obama is doing in handling the threat of terrorism?** * Asked of a random subsample of 470 registered voters. ** Asked of a random subsample of 533 registered voters.
