Sep 9, 2014 - Both cell and landline phones were contacted by live interviewers. The margin of error for this survey is
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The Grimes Campaign The Mellman Group, Inc. Grimes Is Tied With McConnell In Kentucky’s Senate Race September 9, 2014
This analysis represents the findings of a survey of 800 voters representing the likely 2014 general electorate in Kentucky. Interviews were conducted by telephone September 4-7, 2014, using a registration-based sample. Both cell and landline phones were contacted by live interviewers. The margin of error for this survey is +/-3.5% at the 95% level of confidence. The margin of error is higher for subgroups.
Seasons change and so do the holders of U.S. Senate seats. Despite being bludgeoned with millions of dollars in negative ads issuing from the camp of Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, our just completed survey shows Alison Lundergan Grimes leading Mitch McConnell by 1 point. While the incumbent remains better known, Grimes is better liked by those who know each. With Grimes now in a position to better keep pace with the GOP’s television onslaught, this race could hardly be closer and will go down to the wire. Grimes Enjoys A 1-Point Lead Alison Lundergan Grimes enjoys a small but impressive lead over the nearly three decade incumbent McConnell (43% Grimes, 42% McConnell, with 15% undecided). Moreover, Grimes holds an edge over McConnell in terms of the proportion saying they support their preferred candidate “strongly,” with 35% supporting Grimes strongly against only 30% who support McConnell strongly. Grimes leads among independents by 40% to 30%. What’s more, looking at the vote among those respondents who know both of the candidates, Grimes moves out to a majority and a 9-point lead (50% Grimes, 41% McConnell, 9% undecided). Grimes Has An Image Advantage Grimes’ image advantage is manifested in two key summary measures: favorability and job performance. While McConnell remains better known, on a personal level, Grimes is viewed net-favorably by a 5-point margin whereas McConnell is net-unfavorable by 5 points. McConnell’s job performance ratings also stand out for being strongly negative (32% positive, 61% negative) while assessments of Grimes are much more positive. 1023 31st Street, NW Fifth Floor Washington, DC 20007 ph 202-625-0370 fx 202-625-0371 www.mellmangroup.com
The Mellman Group September 2014 Page 2 of 2
Beneath the surface, Grimes has significant advantages on personal and political attributes that drive voters’ decisions on Election Day. Significantly larger percentages believe the phrases “will work to create good jobs” (+9) and “will protect Social Security and Medicare” (+9) describe Grimes better than McConnell. Meanwhile the three phrases McConnell is most strongly associated with relative to Grimes are all negative: “opposes raising the minimum wage” (+42), “has been in office too long” (+45), and “supports tax breaks for companies that ship jobs overseas” (+33). Thus, Grimes appeals to voters on key pocketbook issues. In short, Grimes narrowly leads what is an essentially tied race. What’s more, her advantages in personal popularity, job performance, and key image attributes put Grimes in a strong position to win in November.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------The Mellman Group, a polling and consulting firm, has helped guide the campaigns of 28 U.S. Senators, 11 Governors and over two dozen Members of Congress. The firm has achieved a reputation for providing winning strategies and accurate data, even when others are wrong. Most famously, when every other poll showed Leader Harry Reid losing in 2010, The Mellman Group not only showed him winning, but projected his exact margin of victory, as documented in a Las Vegas Sun article headlined, “How Harry Reid’s Pollster Got It Right.” In 2012 a 538.com analysis by Nate Silver found The Mellman Group to be the nation’s most accurate campaign pollster, tied for second most accurate pollster overall and the only pollster exhibiting zero partisan bias—a finding which seeped into popular culture when the Doonesbury cartoon strip also cited the firm’s accuracy.
