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CHANGING MIDDLE EAST

The Gulf ’s Escalating Sectarianism

January 5, 2016

POMEPS BRIEFINGS

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Contents Theoretical Perspectives Why Saudi Arabia escalated the Middle East’s sectarian conflict . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6 By Marc Lynch, George Washington University

Coming in from the Cold . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 By Helle Malmvig, Danish Institute for International Studies

Explaining the spread of sectarian conflict . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13 By Fred Lawson, Mills College

The roots and future of sectarianism in the Gulf . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .19 By Frederic Wehrey, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Seeking to explain the rise of sectarianism in the Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .23 By Toby Dodge, London School of Economics and Political Science

The Politics of Sectarianism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .30 By Marc Lynch, George Washington University

Sectarianism in the Gulf Sectarianism after the Saudi mosque bombings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .34 By Toby Matthiesen, University of Oxford

Sectarianism comes back to bite Saudi Arabia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .37 By Toby Matthiesen, University of Oxford

The limits of the ‘sectarian’ framing in Yemen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .40 By Stacey Philbrick Yadav, Hobart and William Smith Colleges

How sectarianism shapes Yemen’s war . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .42 By Jeff Colgan, Brown University

Sectarianism and authoritarianism in Kuwait . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .44 By Madeleine Wells, George Washington University

Regional Sectarian Conflict The Iran deal sharpens the region’s sectarian divide . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .49 By Frederic Wehrey, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Why isn’t there an anti-Iran alliance? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .51 By F. Gregory Gause III, Texas A&M University

Overlapping contests and Middle East international relations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .53 By Bassel F. Salloukh, Lebanese American University

Beyond ‘geosectarianism’ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .58 By Ewan Stein, University of Edinburgh 

Saudi-Iranian rapprochement? The incentives and the obstacles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .62 By F. Gregory Gause III, Texas A&M University

Online Article Index https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/01/04/why-saudi-arabia-escalated-the-middle-easts-sectarian-conflict/ http://pomeps.org/2015/08/19/coming-in-from-the-cold-how-we-may-take-sectarian-identity-politics-seriously-in-themiddle-east-without-playing-to-the-tunes-of-regional-power-elites/ http://pomeps.org/2014/03/21/explaining-the-spread