THE KARABAKH CONFLICT

Jul 1, 1994 - Armenian central concern is national security, Azerbaijani central ..... Assembly and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation.
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`ALI ABASOV, HAROUTIUN KHACHATRIAN

THE KARABAKH CONFLICT Variants of settlement: Concepts and reality Third edition revised and updated

The foreword and comments are by Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Russian Federation V. N. Kazimirov

Baku-Yerevan 2006

This book, written jointly by an Armenian and an Azeri researcher, presents the current visions about the causes of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict, and its impact on the parties concerned. The possible ways for a solution to the conflict are described in detail as well as the “technologies” by which these solutions can be achieved. The Appendix contains the texts of official international documents on the Nagorno Karabakh problem adopted since 1991.

Sponsored by: Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung South-Caucasus Co-ordination office

©Ali Abasov, Haroutiun Khachatrian, 2005 ©V. N. Kazimirov. Foreword and notes, 2004 ©Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung Published by: AREAT, NOYAN TAPAN 2005

Contents Authors’ foreword to the third edition …… ………………………………………. 5 Foreword by Ambassador Vladimir Kazimirov to the second edition …………….. 5 From the authors ……………………………………………………………………. 12 . I. INTRODUCTION. The levels of the Karabakh conflict: from local to global scale ……………………………………………………………………………… …. 15 1. The ethnic level of the conflict………………………………………………. 2. The regional level of the conflict…………………………………………….. 3. The Soviet and post-Soviet level of the conflict …………………………… 4. The international aspects of the conflict …..……………………………....

16 17 18 20

II. ANALYSIS OF POSSIBLE VARIANTS OF POLITICAL SOLUTION TO THE KARABAKH CONFLICT …….………………………………................ 27 1. The international-legal aspects of the problem …………………………… 2. The possible schemes of principle for solution to the problem………………

27 33

1. The position of Azerbaijan ……………………………………………………. 2. The position of the Azeris of Nagorno Karabakh ……………………............. 3. The position of the authorities of Nagorno Karabakh………………………… 4. Nagorno Karabakh as part of Armenia ……………………………………… 5. More than autonomy but not a state ……..…………………………………… 6. Exchange of territories ………………………………………………………. 7. Associated state …………………………………………………………….. 8. The Cyprus model ……………………………………………………..…… 9. The “Chechen variant” and the “Prague Process”………………………….. 10. “Common State” …………………………………………………………… 11. “Transcaucasian Confederation” …………………………………………... 12. “The Paris principles” ………………………………………………………. 13. The principle of condominium (or the “Andorra variant”) …………………

33 34 34 35 36 39 40 43 43 46 48 50 50

III. METHODS (“TECHNOLOGIES”) FOR THE RESOLUTION OF THE KARABAKH CONFLICT …………………………………………………… 52 1. Military solution ………………………..……………………………… 2. “Package” solution ………………………………………………………. 3. Stage-by-stage solution ………………………………………………….. 4. “Backup plan” …………………………………………………………… 5. Integration approaches ………………………………………………….. 6. External coercion, or the “Dayton schemes” ………………………….. 7. “The Dartmouth Variant” ………………………………………………

52 52 53 55 56 57 58

IV. THE CONFLICT AND THE SOCIAL-POLITICAL ATMOSPHERE IN THE TWO COUNTRIES ………………………………………………………. 61 1. Armenia ………………………………………………………………….. 2. Nagorno Karabakh ……………………………………………………… 3. Azerbaijan ……………………………………………………………….. 4. Grassroots Diplomacy ……………………………………………………

61 63 63 67

V. CONCLUSION ……………………..……………………………………… 70 Deductions…………………………………………………………………….

74

AFTERWORDS ………………………………………………………………

77

APPENDICES …………………………………………………………………

84

AUTHORS’ FOREWORD TO THE THIRD EDITION Whereas the first edition of our book, “KARABAKH CONFLICT. Variants of Settlement: Concepts and Reality” appeared in 2002 simultaneously in four languages (Armenian, Azerbaijani, Russian and English), and the second edition was in Russian only, this third edition is in English. This edition is basically an English translation of the s