trust and a sense of belonging for members of our community. The .... in the Toronto regionâthe CMA is the income ineq
The Opportunity Equation in the Greater Toronto Area: An update on neighbourhood income inequality and polarization
Research Team Mihaela Dinca-Panaitescu David Hulchanski Michelynn Laflèche Laura McDonough Richard Maaranen Stephanie Procyk Acknowledgements The research team would like to thank Professor Alan Walks for reviewing this report.
A United Way Toronto and York Region and Neighbourhood Change Research Partnership, Factor-Inwentash Faculty of Social Work, University of Toronto research publication, funded by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. November 2017 ISBN 978-0-921669-41-8
Contents Introduction
1
Why focus on income inequality?
2
Key findings
4
1. Income inequality and polarization in Canada’s major metropolitan areas: Montréal, Toronto, Calgary, and Vancouver
5
2. Income inequality and polarization in the Greater Toronto Area: The City of Toronto and the Regional Municipalities of York, Peel, Halton, and Durham
7
3. Patterns of income inequality and polarization in the Greater Toronto Area
10
4. Understanding the impact, defining the action
35
Appendix: Methods and definition of key terms 38 References
41
Endnotes
43
Introduction
1
The opportunity equation—the principle that access to opportunity, together with hard work, equals success—is at the core of how we define our society. It is an essential building block for developing trust and a sense of belonging for members of our community. The opportunity equation is central to United Way’s mission of ensuring that everyone has a fair chance at a good life. In a society that values fairness, the opportunity equation should mean that everyone can get ahead. However, factors like the increasing concentration of poverty, deteriorating job quality, and growing income inequality are creating an uneven playing field and compromising the promise of access to opportunity.
The Opportunity Equation.
Effort + Opportunity = Success To better understand this changing environment, United Way published The Opportunity Equation: Building opportunity in the face of growing income inequality in 2015. It asserted that growing income inequality in our region is threatening the opportunity equation. The report revealed that income inequality in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) had outpaced provincial and national trends, growing at double the national rate. And, beyond comparisons between individuals and households, it also showed a growing divide between neighbourhoods in the City of Toronto, where inequality between neighbourhoods increased by 96% from 1980 to 2010. The Opportunity Equation suggested that as income inequality grows, the neighbourhood where you live increasingly matters in whether or not the promise of a fair chance is true for you.
* This report is a collaboration of United Way Toronto and York Region and The Neighbourhood Change Research Partnership (NCRP) at the Factor-Inwentash Faculty of Social Work, University of Toronto. The NCRP is funded by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. †
For more information, see Chapter 2 of The Opportunity Equation.
With the release of Census 2016 data, which provides incomes for 2015, we* are now able to partially update the numbers from The Opportunity Equation.† This new report provides the most up to date portrait of neighbourhood income inequality and polarization in the GTA and reflects how our region has changed since 1970. It also compares what has happened in the neighbourhoods of Canada’s other major metropolitan areas: Montréal, Calgary, and Vancouver.
Why focus on income inequality? The growth of income inequality is widely acknowledged as ‘the defining challenge of our time.’ ‡ Concerns about its social and economic impacts have risen to the top of the agenda in countries across the globe. Of specific concern are its impacts on access to opportunity. In The Opportunity Equation, we focused on the link between growing income inequality and access to opportunity because research demonstrates that as income inequality rises, access to opportunity decreases. Opportunity can be understood as the factors that, over a lifetime, help to build material, social, and psychological well-being. These factors include access to good education, quality jobs, excellent health services, adequate and affordable housing, and meaningful social networks. Access to opportunity is influenced both by individual traits which are subject to personal choice—defined as effort—and things that are beyond individual control—defined as circumstances.1 Circumstances are influenced by a number of factors and include: • Characteristics that may subject an individual to discriminatory treatment by other people, institutions, and systems, such as gender, race, ethnicity, and/or other aspects that often result in unequal treatment for equally deserving individuals.2 • Access to resources, both public and private, such as housing, education, health services, social capital, etc.3
First used by U.S. President Barack Obama in a 2013 speech, this sentence is widely quoted and used today to describe income inequality in news articles across the world. ‡
2
3
There is a growing body of research that demonstrates that as income inequality grows, circumstances have more influence on children’s eventual outcomes as adults, and that these circumstances are particularly powerful at the top and bottom end of the income distribution in societies that are more unequal.4 We presented worrying evidence to support this in The Opportunity Equation, where we learned that the majority of people in Toronto felt that hard work was not a guarantee for success, and that background and circumstances, things like gender and race, are barriers to a good future. We found that the outlook for the next generation is bleak and that 52.1% of people thought that the next generation would be worse off. In short, we found broad consensus that the opportunity equation is broken, and growing income inequality was a likely driver of this challenge for our society. In this report we use the latest 2016 Census data to paint a picture of the change in neighbourhood§ inequality and polarization in our region, adding to the evidence that income inequality is growing in Canada.5 Measures of income inequality and polarization describe related but different shifts in the income distribution. Measures of inequality describe how unevenly income is distributed across individuals or neighbourhoods within a region.** In other words, income inequality is a snapshot of who gets how much of the pie compared to other people or neighbourhoods. Polarization, in contrast to inequality, reflects a process in which the incomes of individuals or neighbourhoods concentrate into two separate groups at opposite ends of the income spectrum.†† Rising polarization is associated with the idea of the ‘disappearing middle class’. Taken together, these measures give us a more comprehensive picture of the growth of disparity between neighbourhoods in our region. Our findings raise further concerns about the impacts on access to opportunity.
§
We use neighbourhoods as the unit of analysis in this report.
** We use the standard measure of income inequality, the Gini Coefficient. When the Gini Coefficient equals 1, one neighbourhood has all of the income. When the Gini Coefficient equals 0, every neighbourhood has the same income. We use the Coefficient of Polarization to measure income polarization. We selected this measure because it can be calculated using income data aggregated at neighbourhood level and has balanced sensitivity to both the high and low ends of the income distribution. A value of 0 indicates a lack of polarization but its maximum values are not capped at 1.
††
Key findings Section 1 provides a picture of neighbourhood income inequality and polarization in Canada’s major census metropolitan areas (Montréal, Toronto, Calgary, and Vancouver). The findings confirm a growing threat: since 1990, the gap between rich and poor has continued to rise in major cities throughout the country. It’s worst in the Toronto region—the CMA is the income inequality capital of Canada, and we’re at risk of getting stuck in this position. Section 2 shows what neighbourhood income inequality and polarization look like in the Greater Toronto Area, including in the City of Toronto and the Regional Municipalities of York, Peel, Halton, and Durham. The data shows that the challenge of growing income inequality and polarization is now widespread throughout the region. Section 3 maps the increasing neighbourhood income divides in the Toronto census metropolitan area and the municipalities in the Greater Toronto Area. The maps clearly demonstrate that a majority of all neighbourhoods in the GTA are now segregated into high- and low-income. Middle-income neighbourhoods are vanishing from our region. Section 4 highlights the impacts income inequality can have and points to action to mitigate those impacts. We argue that this kind of inequality blocks too many people from getting ahead— and threatens the values of fairness and opportunity that Canada is built on. We also issue a call to action for all sectors to take leadership on this issue, and highlight how United Way is working in partnership with others to close the gaps between people, and between neighbourhoods.
4
5
1. Income inequality and polarization in Canada’s major metropolitan areas: Montréal, Toronto, Calgary, and Vancouver From 1970 to 2015, neighbourhood income inequality and polarization grew significantly in Canada’s four largest census metropolitan areas (CMAs)‡‡ (Figures 1 and 2).§§ Each of these metropolitan areas became more unequal and more polarized over time, although the extent and pace of change varied from one area to another. Neighbourhood income inequality and polarization in Vancouver and Calgary declined slightly from 1970 to 1980. It increased beginning in 1980, with Calgary catching up to Toronto by 2015. Montréal’s trajectory was relatively flat, increasing slightly after 1990. In comparison to the other metropolitan areas, Toronto has become the most unequal and the most polarized. Until 1990, Toronto’s levels of neighbourhood inequality and polarization were relatively similar to the levels of Vancouver, Calgary, and Montréal. However, beginning in 1990 and extending to 2015, neighbourhood income inequality grew significantly in Toronto. The trend was similar for polarization until 2010, with a slight decrease in 2015. While the patterns of growth may be different, Canada’s major metropolitan areas share a similar story—they are all becoming more unequal and polarized over time. This means that neighbourhoods in all of these metropolitan areas are not only increasingly becoming segregated by income, they are also increasingly being transformed into either high- or low-income neighbourhoods as the number of middle-income neighbourhoods is declining. This trend is clearly demonstrated in the maps and figures in section 3.
A census metropolitan area (CMA) is formed by one or more adjacent municipalities centred on a population centre (known as the core). A CMA must have a total population of at least 100,000 of which 50,000 or more must live in the core.
‡‡
All figures and maps were produced by the Neighbourhood Change Research Partnership, University of Toronto, August/November 2017. §§
Figure 1: Income Inequality Between Census Tracts, Four Census Metropolitan Areas, 1970-2015 0.40
Relative Increase in Inequality
Gini Coefficient
0.35
Montréal 17%
0.30
Toronto 68%
0.25
Calgary 70%
0.20
Vancouver 30%
0.15 0.10 0.05
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010 2015
A Gini coefficient value of 0.0 represents perfect equality. All census tracts would have the exact same proportion of income relative to their share of the population. A Gini coefficient value of 1.0 represents perfect inequality. All of the income would be taken by one single census tract while others take none. Notes: Calculated from census tract average individual income from all sources, before-tax. Income 1970-2005 and 2015 is from the Census. Income for 2010 is Canada Revenue Agency T1FF taxfiler data.
Figure 2: Income Polarization Between Census Tracts, Four Census Metropolitan Areas, 1970-2015
Coefficient of Polarization
0.40
Relative Increase in Polarization
0.35
Montréal 5%
0.30
Toronto 51%
0.25
Calgary 66%
0.20
Vancouver 25%
0.15 0.10 0.05
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2015
A coefficient value of 0.0 represents the complete absence of polarization. All census tracts would be middle income, each having the exact same average. As census tracts move away from each other, towards higher or lower incomes, the COP value increases with no maximum. Notes: Calculated from census tract average individual income from all sources, before-tax. Income 1970-2005 and 2015 is from the Census. Income for 2010 is Canada Revenue Agency T1FF taxfiler data.
6
7
2. Income inequality and polarization in the Greater Toronto Area: The City of Toronto and the Regional Municipalities of York, Peel, Halton, and Durham The diverging landscape that characterizes the four major metropolitan areas is also unfolding across the regional municipalities of the Greater Toronto Area (Map 1).*** Between 1970 and 2015, neighbourhood income inequality and polarization grew throughout the GTA (Figures 3 and 4). For each area in the GTA, the trajectory of inequality mirrors that of polarization, with two decades of relatively little change followed by a rapid increase between 1990 and 2000. York, Peel, and Halton followed each other closely over the entire 45-year period. Durham departed from the rest of the region after 1990, maintaining the lowest levels of neighbourhood inequality and polarization in the GTA. The City of Toronto stands out for its increasingly higher levels of neighbourhood inequality and polarization throughout the entire period. The divergence became more dramatic after 1990 and by 2015 the City of Toronto’s levels of neighbourhood inequality and polarization were almost double those of the adjacent regional municipalities (almost triple that of Durham).
*** The GTA is larger than the Toronto CMA, which is illustrated in Map 1. Toronto is a single-tier municipality; the other four are uppertier municipalities within which there are three or more lower-tier municipalities.
Map 1: The Toronto Urban Region: The Census Metropolitan Area and the Greater Toronto Area Toronto Urban Region, Census 2016
8
Census Metropolitan Area (CMA). Population 5,928,000. Census Tracts 1,151. Greater Toronto Area (GTA). Population 6,418,000. Census Tracts 1,261. Municipalities Upper-tier Regions (Census Divisions) Lower-tier Cities & Towns (Census Subdivisions)
Lake Simcoe
Georgina
SIMCOE
Brock (no census tracts)
Bradford West Gwillimbury
DUFFERIN Mono
New Tecumseth
East Gwillimbury
Orangeville
Newmarket
King
Aurora
WhitchurchStouffville
Uxbridge
Scugog (no census tracts)
Richmond Hill
Caledon
Vaughan
Markham
DURHAM
YORK
Pickering Brampton
PEEL
Ajax
Whitby Oshawa
Clarington
Oshawa CMA
TORONTO
Halton Hills
HALTON
Mississauga
Lake Ontario
Milton Oakville Burlington (part of Hamilton CMA)
Only parts of Dufferin and Simcoe regions are within the Toronto CMA. They are outside the GTA boundary.
Figure 3: Income Inequality Between Census Tracts, Greater Toronto Area, 1970-2015 0.40
9
Relative Increase in Inequality
Gini Coefficient
0.35
City of Toronto
105%
0.30
Halton Region
82%
0.25
York Region
63%
0.20
Peel Region
49%
0.15
Durham Region
38%
0.10
Toronto Census Metropolitan Area 68%
0.05
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010 2015
A Gini coefficient value of 0.0 represents perfect equality. All census tracts would have the exact same proportion of income relative to their share of the population. A Gini coefficient value of 1.0 represents perfect inequality. All of the income would be taken by one single census tract while others take none. Notes: Halton includes parts of the Hamilton CMA and Durham includes parts of the Oshawa CMA. Calculated from census tract average individual income from all sources, before-tax. Income 1970-2000 and 2015 is from the Census. Income for 2010 is Canada Revenue Agency T1FF taxfiler data.
Figure 4: Income Polarization Between Census Tracts, Greater Toronto Area, 1970-2015
Coefficient of Polarization
0.40
Relative Increase in Polarization
0.35
City of Toronto
82%
0.30
Halton Region
58%
0.25
York Region
98%
0.20
Peel Region
39%
0.15
Durham Region
48%
0.10
Toronto Census Metropolitan Area 51%
0.05
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010 2015
A coefficient value of 0.0 represents the complete absence of polarization. All census tracts would be middle income, each having the exact same average. As census tracts move away from each other, towards higher or lower incomes, the COP value increases with no maximum. Notes: Halton includes parts of the Hamilton CMA and Durham includes parts of the Oshawa CMA. Calculated from census tract average individual income from all sources, before-tax. Income 1970-2000 and 2015 is from the Census. Income for 2010 is Canada Revenue Agency T1FF taxfiler data.
3. Patterns of income inequality and polarization in the Greater Toronto Area 10
Trends in neighbourhood income inequality and polarization can also be visualized using maps. The maps in this report illustrate the growing neighbourhood inequality and polarization of our region by showing areas of relatively high income in blue and areas of relatively low income in red. The darker the colours, the higher or lower the average individual income is in the census tract relative to the CMA average.††† The collection of maps labelled Map 2 shows the growth in the number of low- and high-income neighbourhoods and the decline in middle-income neighbourhoods across the Toronto CMA over the period 1980-2010. This trend has continued into the present day, as shown by the map of the Toronto CMA in 2015 (Map 3). These maps reveal a metropolitan area becoming more and more divided along income lines. In 1980, the Toronto CMA was dominated by middle-income neighbourhoods. By 2010, this pattern completely reversed and continued to 2015: the majority of neighbourhoods are now either low- or high-income. Figure 5 further illustrates this trend over time. In 1970, almost two thirds (64%) of neighbourhoods were middle-income, though only 42% were in 2015. In contrast, low- and very low-income neighbourhoods together made up about one-fifth (21%) of the Toronto CMA’s neighbourhoods in 1980. By 2015, they made up 39% of all neighbourhoods. High- and very high-income neighbourhoods grew from 15 % to 19%. Each area in the GTA echoes the broader trend, becoming increasingly divided over time.
In the legends we provide exact percentages that demonstrate increasing average income in census tracts at the top extreme, and decreasing average income in census tracts at the bottom extreme, relative to the CMA average. These percentages change from 1980 to 2015. †††
Map 2: Average Individual Income, Toronto Census Metropolitan Area, 1980-2010
Census Tract Average Income Compared to the CMA Average
11
Very High: 140% and above
Low: 60% to 80%
High: 120% to 140%
Very Low: Below 60%
Middle: 80% to 120%
Not Available
Average Individual Income, 1980ñ2010 Average Individual Income, 1980ñ2010 Toronto Census Metropolitan Area Average Individual Income, 1980ñ2010 Toronto Metropolitan Area verage Census Individual Income, 1980ñ2010 1980 1990
Metropolitan Area oronto Toronto Census Census Metropolitan Area Municipalities Only parts of Halton, Durham, S i m c o e
Simcoe
Municipalities
1980
1980 980 1980 Peel
Peel York PYeoerl k
Peel
Simcoe and Dufferin regions Only parts of Halton, Durham, are within the Toronto CMA. Municipalities Simcoe Municipalities Simcoe and Dufferin regions are within the Toronto CMA. Only parts of Halton, Durham, Only parts of Halton, Durham, Simcoe and Dufferin regions Simcoe and Dufferin regions D u r within h a mthe Toronto CMA. York are are within the Toronto CMA.
Durham
1990
1990 1990 1990 Peel
D u r h a m Census Tract Average Income compared P e to el Census Tract Average
D uYrohrakm
Simcoe
Peel York
PYeoerlk
Durham Y rohr ak m Du
the CMA Average Income compared to Very High Census Tract Average Toron T oCensus r the o nCMA tTract o Average Average 140% or above Halton Halton Income compared to Very High to Income compared Toronto Toronto High the CMA Average 140% or above the CMA Average Halton lton 120%Htoa 139.9% Very High High High Toronto T o r o n t o Very Middle above H a lTt o o nr o n t o H aT l too rn o n t o 120% 139.9%140% or 140% or to above Halton H atol 119.9% ton 80% High Simcoe Simcoe Middle High Dufferin Dufferin Low 139.9% 80%toto139.9% 119.9% 120% to 120% Simcoe Simcoe to 79.9% MiddleD60% Dufferin ufferin Low Middle Low 119.9% 60% 79.9% 80% toVery 80% to to 119.9% Simcoe Simcoe Below 60% e D uS fi fme cr ione DS u if m f ecroi n Low D u f f e rin Dufferin Very Low Low 60% toNot 79.9% Below 60% Available Y o r k60% to 79.9% York Very Low NotLow Very 60% Available Y oPreke l Y oPreke l D u r h aBelow m Below 60% Durham
2000
Peel
Peel
York Peel Halton
Halton Halton
Durham
to
2010
2000
2000 000 2000
Durh
York
Toronto
H a lTt o o nr o n t o
DY uo rr hk a m Not Available Du
2010
2010 2010 2010 Not
Peel
Available Source: Statistics Canada, Census 1981-2001. Source: Statistics D u r hCanada, a m Canada Revenue Agency Peel rham T1FF Taxfiler data 2010. Census 1981-2001. Canada Revenue Agency Source: Statistics Canada, Taxfiler 2010. Canada, T oSource: r T1FF o nStatistics t o data Census 1981-2001. Census 1981-2001. Canada Revenue Agency Canada Revenue Agency T1FF Taxfiler data 2010. T1FF Taxfiler data 2010. Halton
Toronto
Halton
York Peel Halton
York Durham
Only parts of Halton, Durham, Simcoe and Dufferin regions are within the Toronto CMA. Based on average individual income from all sources, before tax. Source: Statistics Canada, Census 1980-2000. Canada Revenue Agency T1FF Taxfiler data 2010.
Durham
Toronto
Toronto
H aT l too rn o n t o
Durh
Toronto
Map 3: Average Individual Income, Toronto Census Metropolitan Area, 2015
Census Tract Average Individual Income Compared to the Toronto CMA Average of $50,479
12
Very High: 140% to 831% (139 CTs, 12% of the region) High: 120% to 140% (81 CTs, 7% of the region)
Middle: 80% to 120% (483 CTs, 42% of the region) Average Individual Income, Toronto Census Metropolitan Area, 2 Low: 60% to 80% (335 CTs, 29% of the region)
Very Low: 37% to 60% (107 CTs, 9% of the region) Not Available
Dufferin
Simcoe
Census Individual Inco Toronto CMA
Very Hig (139 CTs
2015
High - 12 (81 CTs,
York Durham
Peel
Middle In (483 CTs
Low - 60 (335 CTs
Very Low (107 CTs
Not Avail
Municipa
Toronto
Census tract bounda
Halton 8
4
0
Kilometres
Source: Statistics Canada, Census Profile Series, 2016.
Only parts of Halto and Dufferin regio Toronto CMA.
8
Average Individual I 15 and over and inc all sources, before-t
Source: Statistics Ca Census Profile Serie
Figure 5: Neighbourhood Income Distribution, Toronto Census Metropolitan Area, 1970-2015
Point Change in Share of Census Tracts Low & Very Low Income 18%
Middle Income -22%
High & Very High Income 4%
100% 90% 80% Percentage of Total Census Tracts in the Region
13
70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2015
Low & very low income neighbourhoods are those census tracts which had an average individual income more than 20% below the Toronto CMA average income. Middle income status is within 20% above or below the CMA average. High & very high income status is more than 20% above the CMA average. Notes: Calculated from census tract average individual income from all sources, before-tax. Income 1970-2000 and 2015 is from the Census. Income for 2010 is Canada Revenue Agency T1FF taxfiler data.
In 1980, the City of Toronto and the Regional Municipalities of York, Peel, Halton, and Durham were all dominated by middle-income neighbourhoods (Maps 4, 7, 10, 13, and 16). At that time, the City of Toronto had many low-income neighbourhoods. However, it was still a middle-income city with middle-income neighbourhoods making up over half (56%) of the city’s total in 1980 (Map 4). The situation has changed dramatically since 1980. In 2015, each area in the GTA was more segregated by income, with middle-income neighbourhoods losing their place to low- or high-income neighbourhoods (Maps 6, 9, 12, 15, and 18). The patterns illustrated on these maps is again evident in Figures 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10, which show how the City of Toronto and each regional municipality has changed over the last 45 years. All areas in the GTA experienced a decline in middle-income neighbourhoods over the period 1970 to 2015. The substantial decline of most of these middle-income neighbourhoods began in 1990, after two decades of relative stability. York Region is the only exception. In York, a reverse pattern occurred, with the dramatic decline in middle-income neighbourhoods happening during the 1970s and 1980s and growth plateauing from 1990 onwards (Figure 7). In every part of the GTA, with the exception of Halton, there was an increase in the number of low-and very low-income neighbourhoods, although the pace of growth varied across areas. Low- and very low-income neighbourhoods grew the most over the period 1990 to 2000 for the City of Toronto and York Region (Figures 6 and 7). In Peel Region, there was a dramatic increase in low-income neighbourhoods since 1980, growing from 2% to 52% (Figure 8). Durham Region experienced only slight increases in low-income neighbourhoods over the entire study period (Figure 10). The number of high- and very high-income neighbourhoods had also increased over time, or at least stayed the same, for the City of Toronto, York, and Durham Regions (Figure 6, 7, and 10). The number of high- and very high-income neighbourhoods in Peel, however, has declined from 1980 to 2015 (Figure 8). Halton Region is quite distinct from the others with no low-income neighbourhoods over the study period. Here, several middle-income neighbourhoods have transformed into high- and very high-income neighbourhoods (Figure 9).
14
Map 4: Average Individual Income, City of Toronto, 1980
Census Tract Average Individual Income Compared to the Toronto CMA Average of $14,384 Very High: 140% to 403% (38 CTs, 9% of the City) High: 120% to 140% (28 CTs, 7% of the City) Middle: 80% to 120% (236 CTs, 56% of the City) Low: 60% to 80% (116 CTs, 27% of the City) Very Low: 42% to 60% (5 CTs, 1% of the City) Not Available Subway / LRT (2016)
Finch Ave
Jane St
Finch Ave
North York
Sheppard Ave
Hwy 400
Etobicoke
Hwy 404
Steeles Ave
Hwy 401
DVP
Hwy 401
Scarborough
Yonge St
York
Toronto Bloor St Hwy 427
15
Gardiner Expwy
East York Danforth Ave Queen St
Metro Toronto in 1981 was a regional municipality which included Scarborough, North York, Etobicoke, York, East York and City of Toronto. This is not to be confused with the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) which is the larger region that also includes municipalities in the “905 region” adjacent to Metro Toronto. Source: Statistics Canada, Census Profile Series, 1981. Notes: (1) Census tract and municipal boundaries are for 1981. (2) Average Individual Income is for persons 15 and over and includes income from all sources, before-tax.
Map 5: Average Individual Income, City of Toronto, 2000
Census Tract Average Individual Income Compared to the Toronto CMA Average of $35,618 Very High: 140% to 701% (72 CTs, 14% of the City) High: 120% to 140% (23 CTs, 4% of the City) Middle: 80% to 120% (167 CTs, 32% of the City) Low: 60% to 80% (212 CTs, 41% of the City) Very Low: 38% to 60% (46 CTs, 9% of the City) Not Available Subway / LRT (2016)
Finch Ave
Jane St
Finch Ave
North York
Sheppard Ave
Hwy 400
Etobicoke
Hwy 404
Steeles Ave
Hwy 401 Hwy 401
Scarborough
Yonge St
York
DVP
Toronto
East York Hwy 427
Bloor St
Gardiner Expwy
Danforth Ave Queen St
Source: Statistics Canada, Census Profile Series, 2001. Notes: (1) Census tract and municipal boundaries are for 2001. (2) Average Individual Income is for persons 15 and over and includes income from all sources, before-tax.
16
Map 6: Average Individual Income, City of Toronto, 2015
Census Tract Average Individual Income Compared to the Toronto CMA Average of $50,479 Very High: 140% to 831% (94 CTs, 17% of the City) High: 120% to 140% (32 CTs, 6% of the City) Middle: 80% to 120% (165 CTs, 29% of the City) Low: 60% to 80% (190 CTs, 33% of the City) Very Low: 37% to 60% (88 CTs, 15% of the City) Not Available Subway / LRT (2016)
Average Individual Income, City of Toronto, 2015 Finch Ave
Jane St
Finch Ave
North York
Sheppard Ave
Hwy 400
Etobicoke
Hwy 404
Steeles Ave
Hwy 401 Hwy 401
Yonge St
York
DVP
Toronto
East York Bloor St
Danforth Ave
Hwy 427
17
Queen St
Gardiner Expwy
Scarborough
2015 Census Tract Average Individual Income compared to the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area Average of $50,479 Very High - 140% to 831% (94 CTs, 17% of the City)
3
1.5
0 Kilometers
High - 120% to 140% (32 CTs, 6% of the City)
3
North York
Former Municipality (1996)
Middle Income - 80% to 120% (165 CTs, 29% of the City)
Source: Statistics Canada, Census Profile Series, 2016
Former City of Toronto (1996)
Notes: (1)Census tract and municipal boundaries are for 2016.
Bloor-Danforth subway (2016)
(2) Average Individual Income is for persons 15 and over and includes income from all sources, before-tax.
Scarborough RT (2016)
Very Low - 37% to 60% (88 CTs, 15% of the City)
Yonge-University-Spadina subway (2016)
Not Available
Sheppard East subway (2016)
Low - 60% to 80% (190 CTs, 33% of the City)
Highways (2016)
Source: Statistics Canada, Census Profile Series, 2016. Notes: (1) Census tract and municipal boundaries are for 2016. (2) Average Individual Income is for persons 15 and over and includes income from all sources, before-tax.
Figure 6: Neighbourhood Income Distribution, City of Toronto, 1970-2015
Point Change in Share of Census Tracts Low & Very Low Income 22%
18
Middle Income -29%
High & Very High Income 7%
100% 90%
Percentage of Total Census Tracts in the Region
80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2015
Low & very low income neighbourhoods are those census tracts which had an average individual income more than 20% below the Toronto CMA average income. Middle income status is within 20% above or below the CMA average. High & very high income status is more than 20% above the CMA average. Notes: Calculated from census tract average individual income from all sources, before-tax. Income 1970-2000 and 2015 is from the Census. Income for 2010 is Canada Revenue Agency T1FF taxfiler data.
Map 7: Average Individual Income, York Region, 1980
Census Tract Average Individual Income Compared to the Toronto CMA Average of $14,384 Very High: 140% to 170% (2 CTs, 5% of York region) High: 120% to 140% (8 CTs, 19% of York region) Middle: 80% to 120% (33 CTs, 77% of York region) Low: 60% to 80% (0 CTs, 0% of York region) Very Low: Below 60% (0 CTs, 0% of York region) Not Available
Average Individual Income, York Regional Municipality, 1980 Census Tract Average Individual Income compared to the Toronto CMA Average of $14,384
Lake Simcoe Chippewas of Georgina Island First Nation
Park Rd
Sutton Hwy 48
Georgina
Udora
Sharon
Newmarket
Local Municipalities or Equivalent (1981) Major Highways (2016)
Aurora
Vandorf
Bloomington Rd
Steeles Ave
Hwy 7
Cachet Buttonville
Thornhill German Mills
Dickson Hill 19th Ave
Major Mackenzie Dr
Greensborough Angus Berczy 16th Ave Glen McCowan Rd
Hwy 404
Bayview Hill
Woodbridge
Community Name
Source: Statistics Canada, Census Profile Series, 1981
Stouffville
Markham Cathedraltown
Warden Ave
Vaughan Concord
Elgin Mills Rd Mill Pond Downtown
Langstaff Dufferin St
Hwy 407
Pine Valley Dr
Woodbridge
Bathurst St
Hwy 400
Maple
Yonge St
Rd
Teston Rd
Rutherford Rd Langstaff Rd
Richmond Gormley 19th Ave Hill Victoria Square
Hope
Kleinburg
Name of Municipality (1981)
Durham Region
Bethesda Rd
Bethesda Rd
King - Vaughan Rd
Vaughan
Whitchurch-Stouffville
Oak Ridges
King City
Bayview Ave
Nobleton
Ballantrae Musselman`s Lake
Unionville
Milliken Mills
Markham Village
York-Durham Line
Yonge St
St. John's Rd Wellington St
McCowan Rd
Kettleby
Major Mackenzie Dr
Cedar Valley
Mullock Dr
King
Albion Vaughan
Not Available
Mount Albert
Hwy 404
Schomberg
Low - 60% to 80% (0 CTs, 0% of York region) Very Low - Less than 60% (0 CTs, 0% of York region)
Davis Dr
Hwy 9
Peel Region
Woodbine Ave
llan
Ho
er
iv dR
Queensville
Concession 2
Simcoe County
Bathurst St
Hwy 400
East Gwillimbury Holland Landing
Middle Income - 87% to 120% (33 CTs, 77% of York region)
York-Durham Line
Leslie St
Warden Ave
Ravenshoe Rd
High - 120% to 140% (8 CTs, 19% of York region)
Pefferlaw
Lake Ridge Rd
Baldwin
Keswick
Very High - 140% to 170% (2 CTs, 5% of York region)
Weir's Side Rd
Woodbine Ave
Jacksons Point Roches Point Baseline Rd
Hwy 427
19
Cornell
Hwy 407
Notes: (1)Census tract and municipal boundaries are for 1981. (2) Average Individual Income is for persons 15 and over and includes income from all sources, before-tax.
Box Grove Middlefield
Steeles Ave
City of Toronto
Source: Statistics Canada, Census Profile Series, 1981. Notes: (1) Census tract and municipal boundaries are for 1981. (2) Average Individual Income is for persons 15 and over and includes income from all sources, before-tax.
Map 8: Average Individual Income, York Region, 2000
Census Tract Average Individual Income Compared to the Toronto CMA Average of $35,618
20
Very High: 140% to 220% (14 CTs, 11% of York region) High: 120% to 140% (14 CTs, 11% of York region) Middle: 80% to 120% (85 CTs, 67% of York region) Low: 60% to 80% (14 CTs, 11% of York region) Very Low: Below 60% (0 CTs, 0% of York region) Not Available
Average Individual Income, York Regional Municipality, 2000 Census Tract Average Individual Income compared to the Toronto CMA Average of $35,618
Lake Simcoe Chippewas of Georgina Island First Nation
Park Rd
Sutton Hwy 48
Georgina
Udora
Sharon
Newmarket
Major Highways (2016)
Aurora
Vandorf
Hwy 407
Pine Valley Dr
Woodbridge
Steeles Ave
Vaughan Concord
Hwy 7
Cachet Buttonville
Thornhill German Mills
Dickson Hill 19th Ave
Major Mackenzie Dr
Greensborough Angus Berczy 16th Ave Glen McCowan Rd
Langstaff Dufferin St
Langstaff Rd
Bayview Hill
Woodbridge
Community Name
Source: Statistics Canada, Census Profile Series, 2001
Stouffville
Markham Cathedraltown
Warden Ave
Rutherford Rd
Elgin Mills Rd Mill Pond Downtown
Hwy 404
Maple
Bathurst St
Hwy 400
Teston Rd
Yonge St
Rd
Major Mackenzie Dr
Richmond Gormley 19th Ave Hill Victoria Square
Hope
Kleinburg
Name of Municipality (2001)
Durham Region
Bethesda Rd
Bethesda Rd
King - Vaughan Rd
Vaughan
Whitchurch-Stouffville
Oak Ridges
King City
Bayview Ave
Nobleton
Ballantrae Musselman`s Lake
Unionville
Milliken Mills
Markham Village
York-Durham Line
Yonge St
St. John's Rd Wellington St
McCowan Rd
Kettleby
Bloomington Rd
Albion Vaughan
Local Municipalities or Equivalent (2001)
Cedar Valley
Mullock Dr
King
Hwy 427
Not Available
Mount Albert
Hwy 404
Schomberg
Low - 66% to 80% (14 CTs, 11% of York region) Very Low - Less than 60% (0 CTs, 0% of York region)
Davis Dr
Hwy 9
Peel Region
Woodbine Ave
llan
Ho
er
iv dR
Queensville
Concession 2
Simcoe County
Bathurst St
Hwy 400
East Gwillimbury Holland Landing
Middle Income - 80% to 120% (85 CTs, 67% of York region)
York-Durham Line
Leslie St
Warden Ave
Ravenshoe Rd
High - 120% to 140% (14 CTs, 11% of York region)
Pefferlaw
Lake Ridge Rd
Baldwin
Keswick
Very High - 140% to 220% (14 CTs, 11% of York region)
Weir's Side Rd
Woodbine Ave
Jacksons Point Roches Point Baseline Rd
Cornell
Hwy 407
Notes: (1)Census tract and municipal boundaries are for 2001. (2) Average Individual Income is for persons 15 and over and includes income from all sources, before-tax.
Box Grove Middlefield
Steeles Ave
City of Toronto
Source: Statistics Canada, Census Profile Series, 2001. Notes: (1) Census tract and municipal boundaries are for 2001. (2) Average Individual Income is for persons 15 and over and includes income from all sources, before-tax.
Map 9: Average Individual Income, York Region, 2015
Census Tract Average Individual Income Compared to the Toronto CMA Average of $50,479 Very High: 140% to 186% (19 CTs, 10% of York region) High: 120% to 140% (17 CTs, 9% of York region) Middle: 80% to 120% (129 CTs, 65% of York region) Low: 60% to 80% (24 CTs, 12% of York region) Very Low: 53% to 60% (8 CTs, 4% of York region) Not Available
Average Individual Income, York Regional Municipality, 2015 Census Tract Average Individual Income compared to the Toronto CMA Average of $50,479
Lake Simcoe Chippewas of Georgina Island First Nation
Park Rd
Very High - 140% to 186% (19 CTs, 10% of York region)
Sutton Hwy 48
Weir's Side Rd
Georgina
Keswick
Udora
York-Durham Line
Leslie St
Warden Ave
Ravenshoe Rd
r ive
Newmarket
2015
Not Available Local Municipalities or Equivalent (2016)
King
Wellington St
Aurora Bloomington Rd Oak Ridges
King City
King - Vaughan Rd
Hwy 407
Pine Valley Dr
Woodbridge
Steeles Ave
Vaughan Concord
Hwy 404
Bayview Hill
Hwy 7
Buttonville
German Mills
Dickson Hill 19th Ave
Markham Cathedraltown
Cachet
Thornhill
Woodbridge
Community Name
City of Toronto
Source: Statistics Canada, Census Profile Series, 2016
Stouffville
Major Mackenzie Dr
Greensborough Angus Berczy 16th Ave Glen McCowan Rd
Langstaff Dufferin St
Langstaff Rd
Elgin Mills Rd Mill Pond Downtown
Warden Ave
Rutherford Rd
Bathurst St
Maple
Yonge St
Hwy 400
Teston Rd
Name of Municipality (2016)
Durham Region
Bethesda Rd
Richmond Gormley 19th Ave Hill Victoria Square
Hope
Kleinburg
Vaughan
Whitchurch-Stouffville
Bethesda Rd
Bayview Ave
Nobleton
Vandorf
Ballantrae Musselman`s Lake
Unionville
Milliken Mills
Markham Village
Notes: (1)Census tract and municipal boundaries are for 2016.
York-Durham Line
Yonge St
St. John's Rd
McCowan Rd
Kettleby
Major Mackenzie Dr
Cedar Valley
Mullock Dr
Low - 60% to 80% (24 CTs, 12% of York region)
Major Highways (2016)
Hwy 404
Schomberg
Rd Albion Vaughan
Mount Albert
Middle Income - 80% to 120% (129 CTs, 65% of York region)
Very Low - 53% to 60% (8 CTs, 4% of York region)
Davis Dr
Hwy 9
Peel Region
Sharon
Woodbine Ave
dR llan Ho
Concession 2
Simcoe County
Queensville
Holland Landing
Bathurst St
Hwy 400
East Gwillimbury
High - 120% to 140% (17 CTs, 9% of York region)
Pefferlaw
Baldwin
Lake Ridge Rd
Woodbine Ave
Jacksons Point Roches Point Baseline Rd
Hwy 427
21
(2) Average Individual Income is for persons 15 and over and includes income from all sources, before-tax.
Cornell
Hwy 407 Box Grove
Middlefield
Steeles Ave
5
2.5
0
5
Kilometers
Source: Statistics Canada, Census Profile Series, 2016. Notes: (1) Census tract and municipal boundaries are for 2016. (2) Average Individual Income is for persons 15 and over and includes income from all sources, before-tax.
Figure 7: Neighbourhood Income Distribution, York Region, 1970-2015
Point Change in Share of Census Tracts Low & Very Low Income 16%
22
Middle Income -29%
High & Very High Income 13%
100% 90%
Percentage of Total Census Tracts in the Region
80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2015
Low & very low income neighbourhoods are those census tracts which had an average individual income more than 20% below the Toronto CMA average income. Middle income status is within 20% above or below the CMA average. High & very high income status is more than 20% above the CMA average. Notes: Calculated from census tract average individual income from all sources, before-tax. Income 1970-2000 and 2015 is from the Census. Income for 2010 is Canada Revenue Agency T1FF taxfiler data.
Map 10: Average Individual Income, Peel Region, 1980
23
Census Tract Average Individual Income Compared to the Toronto CMA Average of $14,384 Very High: 140% to 145% (3 CTs, 3% of Peel region) High: 120% to 140% (9 CTs, 9% of Peel region) Middle: 80% to 120% (85 CTs, 86% of Peel region) Low: 60% to 80% (2 CTs, 2% of Peel region) Very Low: Below 60% (0 CTs, 0% of Peel region) Not Available
Average Individual Income, Peel Regional Municipality, 1980 Census Tract Average Individual Income compared to the Toronto CMA Average of $14,384
Hwy 9 Palgrave
Very High - 140% to 145% (3 CTs, 3% of Peel region)
Caledon Village
een St
Albion
Rd
Bolton Stationview
ort
ron
Airp
Hu
Rd
St -
d
dR
iel ayf
Castlemore
0
y1
Hw
M
Mayfield West Hwy 410
Rd
Steeles Ave West
Clareville
Bolton
Dix
Hwy 427
Bramalea d
ie R
Malton
Brampton
Name of Municipality (1981) Community Name
d
07
ra wth Ca
Rd
Dixie
Rd
Rd
Mil ls P
St
kwy
W
QE
Lorne Park Clarkson
d eR
r
ho
kes
La
Erindale
y4
Hw
rpe
tho
am
as B nd Cooksville Du
03
y4
E
h urn
Erin Mills
Hw
ve nA
to glin
Source: Statistics Canada, Census Profile Series, 1981 Notes: (1)Census tract and municipal boundaries are for 1981.
03
vis Ma
Erin
ine
th L
Nin
Rd nia an Streetsville Brit
City of Toronto
y4 Hw
Mississauga
Meadowvale
07
Hwy 4
10
y4
Hw
01
y4
v sA
Hw
lvd ill B
rch
sy R
cou
Chu
gua
ston
est eW
ele
01
Major Highways (2016)
Hwy 407
Peel Village
Huttonville Ste
y4
t
nS
ee
Qu
Local Municipalities (1981)
Gore
Knightsbridge
Downtown Brampton
Chin
Win
Mount Pleasant
r
dD
vair
Bo
Brampton
North West Brampton
Hw
Heart Lake
ram
Terra Cotta
Not Available
Rd
stle
Ca
Springdale b Tor
Snelgrove
re mo
Very Low - Less than 60% (0 CTs, 0% of Peel region)
York Region
n Rd
tario
Caledon
Low - 77% to 80% (2 CTs, 2% of Peel region)
Albion Vaugha
Inglewood
Middle Income - 80% to 120% (85 CTs, 86% of Peel region)
Qu
line
ase
eB
Old
High - 120% to 140% (9 CTs, 9% of Peel region)
d
eR
Sid
stle
Ca
East Caledon
Belfountain
rg de
Lakeview
(2) Average Individual Income is for persons 15 and over and includes income from all sources, before-tax.
Port Credit
Lake Ontario
Source: Statistics Canada, Census Profile Series, 1981. Notes: (1) Census tract and municipal boundaries are for 1981. (2) Average Individual Income is for persons 15 and over and includes income from all sources, before-tax.
Map 11: Average Individual Income, Peel Region, 2000
Census Tract Average Individual Income Compared to the Toronto CMA Average of $35,618 Very High: 140% to 258% (8 CTs, 5% of Peel region) High: 120% to 140% (12 CTs, 7% of Peel region) Middle: 80% to 120% (118 CTs, 67% of Peel region) Low: 60% to 80% (38 CTs, 22% of Peel region) Very Low: Below 60% (1 CT, 1% of Peel region) Not Available
Average Individual Income, Peel Regional Municipality, 2000 Census Tract Average Individual Income compared to the Toronto CMA Average of $35,618
Hwy 9 Palgrave
Very High - 140% to 258% (8 CTs, 5% of Peel region)
Caledon Village
een St
Albion
Rd
Bolton Stationview
ort
Airp
ron
Hu
Rd
St -
d
dR
iel ayf
Castlemore
Rd
Bolton
Hwy 427
Dix
Malton
d
ie R
sy R d
chil
07
y4 Ca
Rd
Name of Municipality (2001) Community Name
d
ra R
t
kwy
ls P
W
QE
Lorne Park Clarkson
d
R ore
h
kes
La
Erindale
Source: Statistics Canada, Census Profile Series, 2001 Notes: (1)Census tract and municipal boundaries are for 2001.
Dixie
wth
Mil
03
y4
Hw
rpe
tho
m ha
S rn as Bu nd Cooksville Du
Erin Mills
Hw
o
lint
Eg
ve nA
03
Rd
Erin
ine
th L
Nin
nia an Streetsville
Brit
y4
07
vis
Ma
Rd
City of Toronto
Hw
Mississauga
Meadowvale
Hwy 4
10
y4
Hw
01
y4
v sA
Hw
d
l Blv
01
Bramalea
Brampton
cou
r Chu
gua
ston
est eW
ele
y4
Steeles Ave West
Peel Village
Huttonville Ste
Hw
t
nS
ee
Qu
Major Highways (2016)
Hwy 407
Clareville
Knightsbridge
Downtown Brampton
Chin
Win
Mount Pleasant
Not Available Local Municipalities (2001)
Gore
ram
Brampton
North West Brampton
r
dD
vair
Bo
Very Low - 57% to 60% (1 CTs, 1% of Peel region)
York Region
stle
Ca
Springdale
Heart Lake
re mo
b Tor
Snelgrove
Terra Cotta
Low - 60% to 80% (38 CTs,22% of Peel region)
Rd
0
y1
Hw
M
n Rd
tario
Caledon Mayfield West Hwy 410
Halton Region
Albion Vaugha
Inglewood
Middle Income - 80% to 120% (118 CTs, 67% of Peel region)
Qu
line
ase
eB
Old
High - 120% to 140% (12 CTs, 7% of Peel region)
d
eR
Sid
stle
Ca
East Caledon
Belfountain
rg de
Lakeview
(2) Average Individual Income is for persons 15 and over and includes income from all sources, before-tax.
Port Credit
Lake Ontario
Source: Statistics Canada, Census Profile Series, 2001. Notes: (1) Census tract and municipal boundaries are for 2001. (2) Average Individual Income is for persons 15 and over and includes income from all sources, before-tax.
24
Map 12: Average Individual Income, Peel Region, 2015
25
Census Tract Average Individual Income Compared to the Toronto CMA Average of $50,479 Very High: 140% to 279% (9 CTs, 4% of Peel region) High: 120% to 140% (4 CTs, 2% of Peel region) Middle: 80% to 120% (105 CTs, 43% of Peel region) Low: 60% to 80% (116 CTs, 47% of Peel region) Very Low: 52% to 60% (11 CTs, 4% of Peel region) Not Available
Average Individual Income, Peel Regional Municipality, 2015 Census Tract Average Individual Income compared to the Toronto CMA Average of $xx,xxx
Hwy 9 Palgrave
Very High - 140% to 279% (9 CTs, 4% of Peel region)
Caledon Village
East Caledon
Inglewood
sel Ba
ine
Middle Income - 80% to 120% (105 CTs, 43% of Peel region)
Bolton Stationview
Rd ort Airp
onta Hur St -
ld
y Hw
yfie Ma
Rd Castlemore
10
Mayfield West Hwy 4 10 Terra Cotta
d air
Major Highways (2016)
Hwy 407
Rd
Steeles Ave West
Brampton Bolton
Hwy 427
Malton
d
y Hw
vd
Name of Municipality (2016) Community Name
ve
ra wth Ca
Notes: (1)Census tract and municipal boundaries are for 2016.
Dixie
y
Rd rpe ho mt ha n St r as Bu nd W Cooksville Du QE Rd
kw
3 40
nA
403
Rd
e
ls P Mil
Lin
Erin Mills
o lint Eg
Source: Statistics Canada, Census Profile Series, 2016
City of Toronto
y Hw
vis Ma
Rd nia tan Streetsville Bri
y Hw
01 Hwy 4
410
Mississauga
Erin
th Nin
y Hw
Local Municipalities (2016)
Bramalea
7 40
Meadowvale
7 40
Not Available
Peel Village
d
l Bl
y Hw
Very Low - 52% to 60% (11 CTs, 4% of Peel region)
York Region
Clareville
Knightsbridge St
Low - 60% to 80% (116 CTs, 47% of Peel region)
Rd
Gore
ie R Dix
sy R cou gua
chil hur
Av les
est eW
Dr
Downtown Brampton
Chin
C on
1 40
v Bo
n ee Qu
Huttonville e Ste
y Hw
Heart Lake
Mount Pleasant
st Win
Halton Region
Springdale
Brampton
North West Brampton
re mo stle Ca
m bra Tor
Snelgrove
Rd
Caledon
rio
2015
Albion
Rd
n Albion Vaugha
e Old
High - 120% to 140% (4 CTs, 2% of Peel region)
d eR
St
Belfountain
Sid
e en Qu
rg de stle Ca
kes La
Erindale Lorne Park Clarkson
r ho
d eR
(2) Average Individual Income is for persons 15 and over and includes income from all sources, before-tax.
Lakeview
Port Credit
Lake Ontario
4
2
0
4
Kilometers
Source: Statistics Canada, Census Profile Series, 2016. Notes: (1) Census tract and municipal boundaries are for 2016. (2) Average Individual Income is for persons 15 and over and includes income from all sources, before-tax.
Figure 8: Neighbourhood Income Distribution, Peel Region, 1970-2015
Point Change in Share of Census Tracts Low & Very Low Income 52%
26
Middle Income -41%
High & Very High Income -11%
100% 90%
Percentage of Total Census Tracts in the Region
80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2015
Low & very low income neighbourhoods are those census tracts which had an average individual income more than 20% below the Toronto CMA average income. Middle income status is within 20% above or below the CMA average. High & very high income status is more than 20% above the CMA average. Notes: Calculated from census tract average individual income from all sources, before-tax. Income 1970-2000 and 2015 is from the Census. Income for 2010 is Canada Revenue Agency T1FF taxfiler data.
Map 13: Average Individual Income, Halton Region, 1980
Census Tract Average Individual Income Compared to the Toronto CMA Average of $14,384 Very High: 140% to 170% (4 CTs, 9% of Halton region) High: 120% to 140% (9 CTs, 21% of Halton region) Middle: 80% to 120% (30 CTs, 70% of Halton region) Low: 60% to 80% (0 CTs, 0% of Halton region) Very Low: Below 60% (0 CTs, 0% of Halton region) Not Available Average Individual Income, Halton Regional Municipality, 1980 Census Tract Average Individual Income compared to the Toronto CMA Average of $14,384
d
W
No
03 y4 St
ak D Orchard r
te
03 y4 Hw
Br
an
ill
Bl
vd
of Milton Name Municipality (1981) Acton
Eastlake
Old Oakville
Lin
e
be Re
QE
Freeman
W
ple
e
t
QE
Ap
Lin
by
Bronte
Lake Ontario
Lin
e
Appleby
St
ine
tS
ird
w
rs
hL
Glen Abbey
Rd
Rd
lke
Palmer elp
College Park
Th
le idd
rM
pe
Tansley W a
Gu
Clearview
Community Name Source: Statistics Canada, Census Profile Series, 1981. Notes: (1)Census tract and municipal boundaries are for 1981.
aS
nd Du
e
Tyandaga
Hamilton Division
Milcroft
Brant Hills
Lin
on
rlo
Ne
gh
Br
Bu
as
rou
ch
le
Up
rha
lbu
ur
St
as
nd Du
Palmero
Alton
River Oaks
Oakville
Up
Mi
Hwy 407
Burlington
Major Highways (2016)
Ch
West Oak Trails
Bu
Kilbride
QE
W
mt
rha
ine
ton
Rd
lL
Nelson
Local Municipalities (1981)
idd
e
Bu ine eL as rB
oo
ins
W
Lin
we
ch
mt
gh
ll S
Hwy 407
rou
Be
Lo
lbu
ho
Mi
Rd
Campellville
d
Not Available for Census Tracts
W
Joshua's Meadows Tr afa lga r R Iroquois d Ridge Glenorchy
rpe
dR
rry
401
Milton De
Hwy
oo
om
Br
d
rkw
Trafalgar
Th
Old Milton ps Beaty On on tar Rd io on St te Scott St Wilmott
Moffat
Da
Dempsey
sA ve
401
e
wy
Esquesing
Very Low - Below 60% (0 CTs, 0% of Halton region)
Lin
Pk
Rd
ne
Hwy
w
Ste
Tli
no
Rd ide 5S No
Brookville
nR
ch
sS
nth
Hw
me
e
Peel Region Ni
Hornby
Rd
Ja
lin
cc
gT
Low - 60 to 80% (0 CTs, 0% of Halton region)
rpe
sin
Ashgrove
t
Halton Hills
ue
01
y4
Hw
ho
sq
07
y4
Hw
rM
a-E
Middle Income - 85% to 120% (30 CTs, 70% of Halton region)
Sid
d
eR
Sid
ey
atio
lin
Norval
erv
us
High - 120% to 140% (9 CTs, 21% of Halton region)
15
aw
Co ns
a-P
vd
tai
pe
y7
Hw
ag
32 ey
Bl
un
n alg Georgetown view ar Eig Rd Rd hth Lin Stewartown e
Limehouse
Nassagaweya
aw
Mo
Very High - 140% to 170% (4 CTs, 9% of Halton region)
ele
eR
d
ss
Sid
e
ill
Glen Williams
Hendersons Corners Tr af
Lin
ch
No
Na
th
Bannockburn
Acton
Du b Crewsons lin L ine Corners
ag
ur
10
ur
ss
Ch
Silver Creek Fo
Na
ton
d
No
32
ins
eR
eR Sid
Terra Cotta
Ballanafad
Welllington County
No
27
Shoreacres
(2) Average Individual Income is for persons 15 and over and includes income from all sources, before-tax. (3) Halton region overlaps both the Toronto CMA and Hamilton CMA. All CTs are measured relative to the larger Toronto CMA for consistency.
Roseland Brant
Hw
Aldershot
y6
Source: Statistics Canada, Census Profile Series, 1981. Notes: (1) Census tract and municipal boundaries are for 1981. (2) Average Individual Income is for persons 15 and over and includes income from all sources, before-tax. (3) Halton region overlaps both the Toronto CMA and Hamilton CMA. All CTs are measured relative to the larger Toronto CMA for consistency.
Map 14: Average Individual Income, Halton Region, 2000
Census Tract Average Individual Income Compared to the Toronto CMA Average of $35,618
28
Very High: 140% to 226% (21 CTs, 25% of Halton region) High: 120% to 140% (7 CTs, 8% of Halton region) Middle: 80% to 120% (55 CTs, 66% of Halton region) Low: 60% to 80% (0 CTs, 0% of Halton region) Very Low: Below 60% (0 CTs, 0% of Halton region) Not Available Average Individual Income, Halton Regional Municipality, 2000
W
No
03 St
ak D Orchard r
te
nd Du
03 y4 Hw
Br
an
hL
ine
tS
ill
Bl
vd
of Milton Name Municipality (2001) Acton
Eastlake
Old Oakville
e
be Re
ple
e
Freeman
W
Ap
Lin
t
QE
Clearview
Lin
QE
rs
by
Bronte
Lake Ontario
Lin
e
Appleby
St
elp
ird
Rd
Rd
lke
Palmer
Glen Abbey Th
le idd
rM
pe
Tansley W a
Gu
College Park
w
e
Tyandaga
Hamilton Division
Milcroft
Brant Hills
Lin
on
rlo
Ne
gh
Br
Bu
as
rou
ch
le
Up
rha
lbu
ur
St
as
nd Du
Palmero
Alton
River Oaks
Oakville
Up
Mi
Hwy 407
Burlington
Major Highways (2016)
Ch
West Oak Trails
Bu
Kilbride
ton
Rd
ine
QE
W
mt
rha Bu ine eL as rB we
lL
Nelson
Local Municipalities (2001)
idd
e
ins
W
Lin
Lo
oo
mt
gh
ch
Hwy 407
rou
ll S
ho
lbu
Be
rry
Mi
Rd
Campellville
d
Not Available
W
Joshua's Meadows Tr afa lga r R Iroquois d Ridge Glenorchy
rpe
dR
De
401
Milton d
Hwy
oo
om
Br
nR
rkw
Trafalgar
Th
Old Milton ps Beaty On on tar Rd io on St te Scott St Wilmott
Moffat
Da
Dempsey
sA ve
401
e
wy
Esquesing
Very Low - Below 60% (0 CTs, 0% of Halton region)
Lin
Pk
Rd
ne
Hwy
w
Ste
Tli
no
Rd ide 5S No
Brookville
atio
ch
sS
nth
y4
me
e
Peel Region Ni
Hornby
Hw
Ja
lin
Community Name Source: Statistics Canada, Census Profile Series, 2001. Notes: (1)Census tract and municipal boundaries are for 2001.
aS
gT
Low - 60% to 80% (0 CTs, 0% of Halton region)
Rd
sin
Ashgrove
t
Halton Hills
ue
01
y4
Hw
rpe
sq
Middle Income - 80% to 120% (55 CTs, 66% of Halton region)
ho
a-E
07
y4
Hw
erv
lin
Norval
Sid
d
eR
Sid
ey
Co ns
us
High - 120% to 140% (7 CTs, 8% of Halton region)
15
aw
32 a-P
vd
tai
cc
y7
Hw
ag
No ey
Bl
un
n alg Georgetown view ar Eig Rd Rd hth Lin Stewartown e
Limehouse
Nassagaweya
aw
Mo
Very High - 140% to 226% (21 CTs, 25% of Halton region)
ele
eR
d
ss
Sid
e
ill
Glen Williams
Hendersons Corners Tr af
Lin
ch
No
Na
th
Bannockburn
Acton
Du b Crewsons lin L ine Corners
ag
ur
10
ur
ss
Ch
Silver Creek Fo
Na
ton
rM
Welllington County
pe
No
32
ins
Ballanafad
d
Sid
Terra Cotta
eR
eR
d
Census Tract Average Individual Income compared to the Toronto CMA Average of $35,618
Shoreacres
(2) Average Individual Income is for persons 15 and over and includes income from all sources, before-tax. (3) Halton region overlaps both the Toronto CMA and Hamilton CMA. All CTs are measured relative to the larger Toronto CMA for consistency.
Roseland Brant
Hw
Aldershot
y6
Source: Statistics Canada, Census Profile Series, 2001. Notes: (1) Census tract and municipal boundaries are for 2001. (2) Average Individual Income is for persons 15 and over and includes income from all sources, before-tax. (3) Halton region overlaps both the Toronto CMA and Hamilton CMA. All CTs are measured relative to the larger Toronto CMA for consistency.
Map 15: Average Individual Income, Halton Region, 2015
Census Tract Average Individual Income Compared to the Toronto CMA Average of $50,479 Very High: 140% to 444% (23 CTs, 21% of Halton region) High: 120% to 140% (27 CTs, 24% of Halton region) Middle: 80% to 120% (61 CTs, 55% of Halton region) Low: 60% to 80% (0 CTs, 0% of Halton region) Very Low: Below 60% (0 CTs, 0% of Halton region) Not Available Average Individual Income, Halton Regional Municipality, 2015 Census Tract Average Individual Income compared to the Toronto CMA Average of $50,479
Rd Silver Creek
y Hw
Peel Region
Trafalgar
Hw y
Hamilton Division Hw y
Aldershot
6
Rd Br an
tS
t
sL ine
Ap ple by L
Old Oakville
Freeman
Community Name
(2) Average Individual Income is for persons 15 and over and includes income from all sources, before-tax.
Bronte
Lake Ontario ine
Acton
Notes: (1)Census tract and municipal boundaries are for 2016.
Lin e
(3) Halton region overlaps both the Toronto CMA and Hamilton CMA. All CTs are measured relative to the larger Toronto CMA for consistency.
Appleby
St
e
Th i rd
Milton
Name of Municipality (2016)
Source: Statistics Canada, Census Profile Series, 2016.
Rd
Rd
Rd
lke r
t
QE W
te
le
Tansley Wa
Lin
Bl vd
Eastlake
College Park
QE W
Mi dd
Palmer
Clearview
Major Highways (2016)
le
t
40 3
Tyandaga
Milcroft
Gu elp h
Br on
loa kD Orchard r
Alton
Local Municipalities (2016)
Ch ur ch ill
River Oaks
Glen Abbey
Up pe r
Palmero
Ne w
Brant uro ug Hills hL ine
Oakville
Up pe r
Mi lb
Joshua's Meadows Tra falg ar Iroquois Rd Ridge Glenorchy
Bu r
Du nd as S
Burlington
Hwy 407
2015
Bu rha mt ho rpe Lo we rB as eL Hwy 407 ine
Kilbride
W ins ton
West Oak Trails
ho rpe Rd
Nelson
Be ll S ch oo lL ine
Bu rha mt
uro ug hL ine
Not Available
QE W
Dempsey
T Old Milton hom Beaty ps On on tar Rd Br io on St te Scott St Wilmott
Rd
Campellville
Mi lb
Very Low - Below 60% (0 CTs, 0% of Halton region)
40 3
wy
Ste e
Milton Rd
Low - 60% to 80% (0 CTs, 0% of Halton region)
Hw y
Pk
401
Du nd as S
no w
Av e
01
De rry
01
es S
Esquesing
4 Hwy
d
4 Hwy
oo d
y Hw
Ni nth Lin e
Hornby
les
Sid e
Rd
Ja m
Moffat
Da rkw
Middle Income - 80% to 120% (61 CTs, 55% of Halton region)
t
Halton Hills
7 40
Ashgrove
No 5 ne
Norval
Mi dd
ide
qu es ing Tli ne
Brookville
Tli
High - 120% to 140% (27 CTs, 24% of Halton region)
5S
Nassagaweya
nc h
Bl vd
No 1
Rd
Hw y
ag aw ey a-
Es
ag aw ey aPu sli
Limehouse
Mo un tai falg Georgetown nvie w ar Eig Rd Rd hth Lin Stewartown e
Co ns e rv ati on R
Na ss
Bannockburn
Glen Williams
No 1
Rd
Na ss
Hendersons Corners Tra
Lin e
7
Acton
Du b Crewsons lin L ine Corners
th
Very High - 140% to 444% (23 CTs, 21% of Halton region)
0S
Fo ur
Ch ur ch ill
Re be cc aS
Welllington County
Rd
W ins ton
ide
No 32 Sid e
Terra Cotta
Ballanafad
No 32 Sid e
29
Shoreacres Roseland
Brant 3
1.5
0
3
Kilometers
Source: Statistics Canada, Census Profile Series, 2016. Notes: (1) Census tract and municipal boundaries are for 2016. (2) Average Individual Income is for persons 15 and over and includes income from all sources, before-tax. (3) Halton region overlaps both the Toronto CMA and Hamilton CMA. All CTs are measured relative to the larger Toronto CMA for consistency.
Figure 9: Neighbourhood Income Distribution, Halton Region, 1970-2015
Point Change in Share of Census Tracts Low & Very Low Income 0%
30
Middle Income -25%
High & Very High Income 25%
100% 90%
Percentage of Total Census Tracts in the Region
80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2015
Low & very low income neighbourhoods are those census tracts which had an average individual income more than 20% below the Toronto CMA average income. Middle income status is within 20% above or below the CMA average. High & very high income status is more than 20% above the CMA average. Notes: Calculated from census tract average individual income from all sources, before-tax. Income 1970-2000 and 2015 is from the Census. Income for 2010 is Canada Revenue Agency T1FF taxfiler data.
Map 16: Average Individual Income, Durham Region, 1980
Census Tract Average Individual Income Compared to the Toronto CMA Average of $14,384 Very High: 140% and above (0 CTs, 0% of Durham region) High: 120% to 140% (2 CTs, 4% of Durham region) Middle: 80% to 120% (42 CTs, 88% of Durham region) Low: 60% to 80% (4 CTs, 8% of Durham region) Very Low: Below 60% (0 CTs, 0% of Durham region) Not Available
Average Individual Income, Durham Regional Municipality, 1980 Census Tract Average Individual Income compared to the Toronto CMA Average of $14,384 Very High - 140% or More (0 CTs, 0% of Durham region) High - 120% to 140% (2 CTs, 4% of Durham region) Middle Income - 80% to 120% (42 CTs, 88% of Durham region) Low - 60% to 80% (4 CTs, 8% of Durham region) Very Low - Less than 60% (0 CTs, 0% of Durham region)
Brock
Scugog 34
Uxbridge Scugog Port Perry
Goodwood
Not Available for Census Tracts Municipalities (1981)
Whitby Brooklyn
Coates Rd
Townline Rd
Uxbridge - Pickering Townline
Myrtle Station
Claremont
Boundary Rd
Municipality or Equivalent (1981) Community Name Major Highways (2016)
Raglan
Regional Rd 20
Notes: (1)Census tract and municipal boundaries are for 1981.
Future Pickering Airport
Frenchman's Bay
Dundas St
Hwy 401 Squires Beach
Almond Village
Port Whitby
Townline Rd
Downtown
Hampton
Orono
Courtice
Central Oshawa
General Motors
Stevenson
Bowmanville
Hwy 401
Pickering Nuclear Generating Station
Newcastle
Hwy 401
Newtonville
Lake Ontario
Source: Statistics Canada, Census Profile Series, 1981. Notes: (1) Census tract and municipal boundaries are for 1981. (2) Average Individual Income is for persons 15 and over and includes income from all sources, before-tax. (3) Durham region overlaps both the Toronto CMA and Oshawa CMA. All CTs are measured relative to the larger Toronto CMA for consistency.
East Townline Rd
Williamsburg
Rossland Rd
North Glen
Newcastle
Hwy 35 and 115
Westney Rd Pickering Village
Ajax
Brock St
Fairport Rd
Cherrywood
Taunton Rd Thickson Rd
Audley
Pickering
Oshawa Harmony Rd
Whitby
Fifth Concession
Whitevale
Rosebank
Hwy 7
(2) Average Individual Income is for persons 15 and over and includes income from all sources, before-tax.
Columbus
Ritson Rd
Greenwood
Hwy 407
Enniskillen Brooklin
Stevenson Rd
Lakeridge Rd
York - Durham Line
31
(3) Durham region overlaps both the Toronto CMA and Oshawa CMA. All CTs are measured relative to the larger Toronto CMA for consistency.
Map 17: Average Individual Income, Durham Region, 2000
Census Tract Average Individual Income Compared to the Toronto CMA Average of $35,618
32
Very High: 140% to 150% (1 CTs, 1% of Durham region) High: 120% to 140% (8 CTs, 8% of Durham region) Middle: 80% to 120% (84 CTs, 80% of Durham region) Low: 60% to 80% (12 CTs, 11% of Durham region) Very Low: Below 60% (0 CTs, 0% of Durham region) Not Available
Average Individual Income, Durham Regional Municipality, 2000 Census Tract Average Individual Income compared to the Toronto CMA Average of $35,618 Very High - 150% (1 CTs, 1% of Durham region) High - 120% to 140% (8 CTs, 8% of Durham region) Middle Income - 80% to 120% (84 CTs, 80% of Durham region) Low - 60% to 80% (12 CTs, 11% of Durham region) Very Low - Less than 60% (0 CTs, 0% of Durham region)
Brock
Mississaugas of Scugog Island Concession Rd 6
Davis Dr
Uxbridge
Brock St
Scugog Port Perry
Goodwood
Not Available for Census Tracts Municipalities (2001)
Brooklyn
Coates Rd
Townline Rd
Uxbridge - Pickering Townline
Myrtle Station
Claremont
Boundary Rd
Municipality or Equivalent (2001) Community Name Highways (2016)
Raglan
Regional Rd 20
Notes: (1)Census tract and municipal boundaries are for 2001.
Future Pickering Airport
Port Whitby
Courtice
Central Oshawa
General Motors
Stevenson
Pickering Nuclear Generating Station
Hwy
2 Bowmanville
Hwy 401
Hwy 35 and 115
Townline Rd
Downtown
Concession Rd 3 Newcastle
Hwy 401 Darlington Nuclear Generating Station
Newtonville
Lake Ontario
Source: Statistics Canada, Census Profile Series, 2001. Notes: (1) Census tract and municipal boundaries are for 2001. (2) Average Individual Income is for persons 15 and over and includes income from all sources, before-tax. (3) Durham region overlaps both the Toronto CMA and Oshawa CMA. All CTs are measured relative to the larger Toronto CMA for consistency.
East Townline Rd
Squires Beach
Almond Village
Orono
Regional Rd 42
Dundas St
Hwy 401
Hampton
Taunton Rd
Morgans Rd
Frenchman's Bay
Williamsburg
Rossland Rd
North Glen
Clarington
Solina Rd
Westney Rd Pickering Village
Ajax
Brock St
Fairport Rd
Cherrywood
Taunton Rd Thickson Rd
Audley
Pickering
Oshawa Harmony Rd
Whitby
Fifth Concession
Whitevale
Rosebank
Hwy 7
(2) Average Individual Income is for persons 15 and over and includes income from all sources, before-tax.
Columbus
Ritson Rd
Greenwood
Hwy 407
Enniskillen Brooklin
Stevenson Rd
Lakeridge Rd
York - Durham Line
Whitby
(3) Durham region overlaps both the Toronto CMA and Oshawa CMA. All CTs are measured relative to the larger Toronto CMA for consistency.
Map 18: Average Individual Income, Durham Region, 2015
Census Tract Average Individual Income Compared to the Toronto CMA Average of $50,479 Very High: 147% (1 CT, 1% of Durham region) High: 120% to 140% (13 CTs, 10% of Durham region) Middle: 80% to 120% (97 CTs, 73% of Durham region) Low: 60% to 80% (18 CTs, 14% of Durham region) Very Low: 54% to 60% (3 CTs, 2% of Durham region) Not Available
Average Individual Income, Durham Regional Municipality, 2015 Census Tract Average Individual Income compared to the Toronto CMA Average of $50,479 Very High - 147% (1 CTs, 1% of Durham region) High - 120% to 140% (13 CTs, 10% of Durham region) Middle Income - 80% to 120% (97 CTs, 73% of Durham region) Low - 60% to 80% (18 CTs, 14% of Durham region) Very Low - 54% to 60% (3 CTs, 2% of Durham region)
Brock
Mississaugas of Scugog Island Concession Rd 6
Davis Dr
Uxbridge
Brock St
Scugog Port Perry
Goodwood
Not Available for Census Tracts
2015 Myrtle Station
Claremont
Municipalities (2016)
Whitby Brooklyn
Coates Rd
Townline Rd
Uxbridge - Pickering Townline
Boundary Rd
Municipality or Equivalent (2016) Community Name Highways (2016)
Raglan
Regional Rd 20
Notes: (1)Census tract and municipal boundaries are for 2016.
Future Pickering Airport
Port Whitby
Townline Rd
Courtice
Central Oshawa
General Motors
Stevenson
Pickering Nuclear Generating Station
Source: Statistics Canada, Census Profile Series, 2016.
Hwy 2 Bowmanville
Hwy 401
Hwy 35 and 115
Downtown
Concession Rd 3 Newcastle
Hwy 401 Darlington Nuclear Generating Station
Lake O ntario
5
2.5
0
Newtonville
5
Kilometres
Source: Statistics Canada, Census Profile Series, 2016. Notes: (1) Census tract and municipal boundaries are for 2016. (2) Average Individual Income is for persons 15 and over and includes income from all sources, before-tax. (3) Durham region overlaps both the Toronto CMA and Oshawa CMA. All CTs are measured relative to the larger Toronto CMA for consistency.
East Townline Rd
Squires Beach
Almond Village
Orono
Regional Rd 42
Dundas St
Hwy 401
Hampton
Taunton Rd
Morgans Rd
Frenchman's Bay
Williamsburg
Rossland Rd
North Glen
Clarington
Solina Rd
Westney Rd Pickering Village
Ajax
Brock St
Fairport Rd
Cherrywood
Taunton Rd Thickson Rd
Audley
Pickering
Oshawa Harmony Rd
Whitby
Fifth Concession
Whitevale
Rosebank
Hwy 7
(2) Average Individual Income is for persons 15 and over and includes income from all sources, before-tax.
Columbus
Ritson Rd
Greenwood
Hwy 407
Enniskillen Brooklin
Stevenson Rd
Lakeridge Rd
York - Durham Line
33
(3) Durham region overlaps both the Toronto CMA and Oshawa CMA. All CTs are measured relative to the larger Toronto CMA for consistency.
Figure 10: Neighbourhood Income Distribution, Durham Region, 1970-2015
Point Change in Share of Census Tracts Low & Very Low Income 4%
34
Middle Income -11%
High & Very High Income 8%
100% 90%
Percentage of Total Census Tracts in the Region
80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2015
Low & very low income neighbourhoods are those census tracts which had an average individual income more than 20% below the Toronto CMA average income. Middle income status is within 20% above or below the CMA average. High & very high income status is more than 20% above the CMA average. Notes: Calculated from census tract average individual income from all sources, before-tax. Income 1970-2000 and 2015 is from the Census. Income for 2010 is Canada Revenue Agency T1FF taxfiler data.
4. Understanding the impact, defining the action 35
Neighbourhood income inequality and polarization continue to grow in and across the Toronto region. The Toronto CMA has the highest level of neighbourhood income inequality and polarization compared to other major metropolitan areas across the country. Across the GTA, middle-income neighbourhoods continue to disappear. They are being replaced by low-income neighbourhoods on one end, and high-income neighbourhoods on the other. Our region risks paying a heavy price for these growing gaps. High levels of income inequality are linked to a variety of undesirable social and economic outcomes, including: • Lower levels of trust, educational performance, and life expectancy.6 • Higher rates of teenage pregnancy, violence, imprisonment, mental illness, addiction, and obesity.7 • Unstable and unsustainable economies.8 • Higher rates of bankruptcy and financial distress among individuals.9 • Increasing pessimism.10 • Decreasing concern between people from different backgrounds, a decreasing feeling of a common stake with others and sense of shared fate between opposite ends of the income distribution.11 And high levels of income inequality have an impact on access to opportunity—a central element of the opportunity equation—too. With persistent and growing income inequality, as demonstrated in this report, our region’s reputation for social inclusion is being compromised. Recent evidence on social mobility‡‡‡ in Canada by Miles Corak confirmed that the Toronto region of the 1980s was a springboard for opportunity. Regardless of their circumstances, people who grew up in our region in the 1980s had a relatively high likelihood of being upwardly mobile compared to the rest of the country. Not surprisingly, Corak’s main finding was that regions with higher mobility tended to also have lower poverty and inequality. Unfortunately, while the Toronto region of the 1980s fit that description, growing inequality and polarization means that the Toronto region of 2015 does not.
Social mobility measures access to opportunity by assessing how dependent a person’s socio-economic position is, either relative to their position in the past or relative to their parents’ socio-economic position (Galiani, 2008).
‡‡‡
36
If nothing is done to combat the rise of income inequality, there is a real threat to our shared value that everyone should have a fair chance to build a good life. Not only are the assets that we identified in The Opportunity Equation—high levels of trust between individuals and their strong belief in their own ability to make a difference in their communities—compromised, but our foundation as a fair society is at risk as well. It is critical to understand that these trends and outcomes are not inevitable. Timely evidence of how our region is changing is an essential foundation for constructive discussions about the challenges we face and the solutions to address them. Income inequality and the polarization of our region is a complex issue that cuts across all sectors of our society and was decades in the making. Effective solutions will require collaboration and coordination between federal, provincial and municipal governments, the private sector, labour, community organizations, and educational institutions. The first edition of The Opportunity Equation offered a starting point for a conversation on how we can all work together to reduce income inequality and mitigate its impacts. We called for all sectors of society to take leadership from their own place and to prioritize collaborations focused on three key areas for collective action: • Providing young people with the opportunities they need to build a good future. • Working toward a labour market that offers job opportunities as real pathways to stability and security. • Working together to ensure that background and circumstances are never barriers to opportunity. In light of these latest findings on the continued growth of inequality, these priorities remain as central and relevant as when United Way first raised this issue two years ago. With these priorities in mind, United Way has started doing its part. Since the launch of The Opportunity Equation in 2015, United Way has taken action in a number of areas, and in partnership with many others, to ensure our work is helping to rebuild the opportunity equation:
37
1. We established a new Anchor Agency investment strategy with a targeted focus on helping people who live in poverty, and those at risk of falling into poverty. This new way of working ensures people have access to a broad range of programs and services close to home. It also allows us to collaborate more closely with our community partners, better positioning us to respond to emerging needs in our changing neighbourhoods. 2. We launched our Youth Success Strategy, designed to connect youth facing multiple barriers to meaningful career opportunities. This strategy works with the business, labour, community, and education sectors to provide support and tools to bridge the opportunity gap and improve young people’s social and economic futures. By 2025, we will have connected 10,000 young people to education, skills, and professional networks and experiences that will put them on the path to long-term economic stability. 3. Over 2017/18, building on the past 10-year’s work of our Building Strong Neighbourhoods Strategy, we are leading a multi-sector social innovation lab to tackle the lack of economic opportunities faced by many neighbourhoods across our region. This work will build on our neighbourhood-focused supports to individuals and communities to make the connections and foster the relationships needed to develop solutions to the issues that affect residents. In addition, we will continue to explore and publish research on the issue of income inequality and access to opportunity. The Opportunity Equation and the updated profile of inequality provided here fill an important gap in knowledge, but also prompt further questions about how these trends are playing out in the lives of different groups of people across our region. We know from our previous research, and the research of others, that few social trends, be it poverty or precarious employment, touch us all equally. Some of us are bearing a bigger part of the burden. Why should income inequality, and its impact on access to opportunity, be any different? Due out in 2018, we will aim to present an analysis that shows how the impacts of income inequality vary across the population in our region, and highlight those groups bearing the burden of these trends. But this issue is not “us” versus “them”. Fairness and opportunity are core values of who we are. They are at the heart of the community we love and feel proud of. That is why we all have a stake in this issue, and a role to play in finding solutions.
Appendix: Methods and definition of key terms 38
This report uses a socio-spatial analysis of income inequality and polarization for major Canadian CMAs and the municipalities within the GTA. The analysis focuses on documenting levels and trends in income inequality and polarization between neighbourhoods over the period 1970 to 2015, and includes the most recent 2016 census data.
Income inequality and polarization measures Income inequality describes a situation in which income is distributed unevenly in a region or a country. Inequality exists when one group receives income that is disproportionate to its size. The Gini Coefficient was used to measure income inequality. It is the bestknown and most accurate income inequality measure and, therefore, the one cited most extensively in international studies that compare income inequality among countries. It is the most accurate measure as it meets all of the criteria for valid measures of inequality. The Gini Coefficient measures how much the distribution of income—between individuals, families, households, or neighbourhoods within a region or a country—deviates from an absolutely equal distribution. At a Gini of 0, every individual, family, household, or neighbourhood receives the same amount of income. At a Gini of 1, one individual, family, household, or neighbourhood receives all of the income and everyone else receives no income at all.13 Income polarization describes a process in which income concentrates into two separate groups—the rich and the poor— creating a hollowed-out middle. Rising polarization is associated with claims about the ‘disappearing middle class.’ While it is difficult to precisely define and measure a middle class for research purposes, it is possible to define and measure a group in the middle of the income spectrum.14 The Coefficient of Polarization was used to measure income polarization. We selected this measure because of its balanced sensitivity to both the high and low ends of the income distribution.15 Both income inequality and polarization have been measured between neighbourhoods. These spatial measures combine two types of information. First, they provide information on the extent to which individuals or households are geographically concentrated and segregated by income in a city or region.
39
Second, they reflect the rising income gap between individuals or households in the city or region as a whole. In other words, they partially reflect those changes captured by non-geographic measures. For this reason, it is appropriate to speak of socio-spatial inequality or polarization when assessing the geographic income change. However, in this paper, we have used the terms inequality and polarization in order to more plainly communicate these concepts to a general audience. Income inequality and polarization were not calculated for Ontario or Canada. Our unit of analysis, census tracts, only exist within CMAs and a few larger census agglomerations. As such, calculations of income inequality and polarization for these geographies would only reflect urban/suburban neighbourhoods in Canada and Ontario, excluding the rural population, and were therefore not used. Only spatial measures were used to calculate income inequality and polarization because there is no reliable non-spatial microdata currently available after the 2005 Census, either in the Research Data Centre or through the Public Use Micro-Data Files. The National Household Survey 2011, while available, is not comparable to previous census releases given the different methodology and target population reached. Information on non-spatial income inequality up to 2005 can be found in The Opportunity Equation.
Neighbourhoods We define neighborhoods by census tracts as in most small area research. Census tracts are small geographic units created by Statistics Canada whose boundaries follow main transportation routes, waterways, and other environmental features such as parks. They typically contain between 2,500 and 8,000 people. Census tracts are located in census metropolitan areas and in census agglomerations with an urban core population of 50,000 or more in the previous census. Over the time period studied, we used the census tract boundaries as they existed in each year. We recognize that the number of census tracts in a CMA can change over time, mainly through the addition of new tracts which might slightly affect neighbourhood inequality. However, most of the census tracts remained longitudinally consistent. Furthermore, using the census tract boundaries as they existed each year reflected the actual situation in that given year. Also, the alternative of using a set of fixed census tract boundaries would mean applying assumptions of average income to those census tracts that split over time or excluding those census tracts, which reduces the amount of information in the system of the region’s census tracts.
The maps of 1980, 2000 and 2015 incomes place census tract average incomes into five groups: Very low (below 60% of the CMA average), Low (60% to 79.9%), Middle (80% to 119.9%), High (120% to 139.9%) and Very High (140% and above). Another way to describe the middle category is income within 20% above or below the CMA average. At the extremes, we provide exact percentages that demonstrate increasing average income in census tracts at the top, and decreasing average income in census tracts at the bottom, relative to the CMA average. These percentages change from 1980 to 2015.
Income measure and income units This report used before-tax income for Gini and Coefficient of Polarization calculations. Before-tax income includes income from all sources—wages, salaries, self-employment income, investment and private pension income. We used this measure to allow for comparisons over time. Prior to 2005, the Census did not collect information on taxes paid. There is no ideal measure of income for the purposes of measuring inequality and polarization. While the after-tax measure is preferable, the choice of income definition is somewhat dependant on the availability of data. The main focus of this study is trends over time, which are not affected by the income type. Absolute values of inequality and polarization change but the overall trend lines don’t change very much. Individuals have been used as income reporting units. Individual income reflects the wage structure and the relative position of workers within the labour market.
Data sources This report used 1970 to 2005 and 2015 census data aggregated at census tract level for calculating inequality and polarization measures. This is the most reliable data currently available that allows for trend analyses that include the most recent 2015 census data. The 2015 census micro files are not yet available. 2010 income data comes from the T1 Family File tables produced by Statistics Canada based on Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) tax returns. The census and tax-filer data are comparable in terms of income as most census income data came from tax-filer data up to 2005 and 2015 census income data is gathered directly from tax-filer data for the first time. 2010 NHS data were not included in trend analyses because NHS data is not comparable to previous census releases given the different methodology and target population reached.
40
References
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Block, S. (2017). Losing Ground: Income inequality in Ontario 2000-2015. Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives. Retrieved on 15/08/2017 from: https:// www.policyalternatives.ca/ losing-ground Brunori, P. Ferreira, F.H.G., and Peragine, V. (2003). Inequality of opportunity, income inequality and economic mobility: Some international comparisons. Policy Research Working Paper 6304. World Bank, Development Research Group. Carpantier, J.F. and Sapata, C. (2013). An Ex-Post view of inequality of opportunity in France and its regions. Journal of Labour Research, 34: 281-311. Corak, M. (2017). Divided landscapes of economic opportunity: The Canadian geography of intergenerational income mobility. Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Global Working Group. Retrieved on 15/08/2017 from: https://econresearch.uchicago. edu/sites/econresearch. uchicago.edu/files/Corak_2017_ Divided_Landscapes.pdf Corak, M. (2013). Income inequality, equality of opportunity, and intergenerational mobility. Institute for the Study of Labour. Discussion Paper No. 7520.
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Endnotes
43
Carpantier and Sapata, 2013; Fleurbaey and Peragine, 2013; Marrero and Rodriguez, 2013; Pignataro, 2012; Ferreira, Gignoux and Aran, 2011; Paes de Barros et al., 2009; Roemer, 1998
1
2
Paes de Barro et al. 2009
Brunori, Ferreira and Peragine, 2013; Corak, 2013; Isaacs, Sawhill and Haskins, 2008
3
4
Corak, 2017; Corak, 2013
5
Block, 2017; Fong, 2017; Uppal and LaRochelle-Côté, 2015
6
Wilson and Pickett, 2010
7
Wilson and Pickett, 2010
8
Stiglitz, 2013
9
Frank, Levine and Dijk, 2014
10
Uslaner, 2012
11
Rothstein and Ulsaner, 2005
12
Corak, 2017
13
Dinca-Panaitescu and Walks, 2015
14
Dinca-Panaitescu and Walks, 2015
15
Walks, 2013
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