had entered the realm of the spatial unknown. I ... notice. This shift has policy and technology implications reflected
The Permutation of Plans Caitlin D Cottrill Lecturer in Digital Economy in the department of Geography & Environment, University of Aberdeen Member of the University’s Centre for Transport Research (CTR) Caitlin D Cottrill is a Lecturer in Digital Economy in the department of Geography & Environment at the University of Aberdeen, and a member of the University’s Centre for Transport Research (CTR). Her work lies at the intersection of transport and technology, with particular focus on location privacy and the use of technology and social media for planning more efficient public and active transport networks. She has previously worked as a regional transport planner.
Abstract: In the last few years technology has begun to impact upon how we travel, but it has perhaps had even more impact on how we treat time and space. The introduction of personal ICTs has allowed for the making of just-in-time plans. Flexibility is the key indicator for plans which can be changed at a moment’s notice. This shift has policy and technology implications reflected in an expanded use of transport smartcards, real time transport information systems, and dissemination of transport information via non-traditional outlets. In 1996, I got lost at a concert. I knew my friends
would allow us to reconnect before the song for
were in the crowd somewhere, but not exactly
which we were waiting was played.
where. An innate sense of misdirection coupled with a heaving crowd and low lighting meant
Technology matters
that, for all intents and purposes, my friends had entered the realm of the spatial unknown. I
This small incident is a telling one of how
knew they wouldn’t leave without me, but I was
technology has begun to impact upon how we
equally sure that the next time I saw them I might
travel, and the expectations we have regarding
be standing near one of the exits, alone, as they
the ‘reading’ of space. Much has been made
jostled out happily singing snippets of favourite
of late of our declining map-reading skills,
songs they had heard while linking arms and
with the blame being placed squarely at the
standing together as a little bastion of solidarity.
feet of satellite navigation systems, online and
I felt removed that night, and nervous. I rarely, if
smartphone-based mapping programmes, and
ever, feel that way anymore, and the reason is
a general reliance on technology over cognitive
the small rectangular object I keep nestled on or
skills. This, however, is only one side of the story.
near my person at nearly all times. Today, were I
Though technology has certainly changed our
to get separated from my friends, we could send
behaviour with respect to spatial cognition, it has
text messages, photos, and any number of other
perhaps had even more impact on how we plan
pieces of information using our smartphones that
travel, and how we treat time and space. While
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maps are a critical component of way-finding,
See you sometime tonight,
they are less constructive in who-finding – or the
somewhere
process of diligently attempting to meet up with members of one’s social network. Questions
The introduction of personal ICTs has, of
of decision-making, timing, meeting places,
course, changed this. Just as technology has
and likely routes are of key importance in the
allowed for the rapid expansion of just-in-time
latter, and here the evolution and widespread
production and delivery practices, cellular
adoption of location-aware information and
and smart phones have allowed for the
communication technologies (ICTs) have had
making of just-in-time plans. Flexibility is the
innumerable impacts. In the transport realm,
key indicator here – plans can be changed
ICTs have contributed to the propagation
at a moment’s notice with a text, a quick call,
of Harvey’s space-time compression, and
or an IM. Running late? Check the real-time
have, by extension, impacted upon our travel
traffic information, pick a new route, and
behaviours as a whole.
send a message with a revised ETA. Original choice of meeting place too crowded?
Prior to the widespread adoption of the cell
Send a text asking for other suggestions and
phone, travel planning involving multiple
regroup. Held up on a slow train? Book a
parties nearly always took place in advance,
taxi to meet you at the next station. Cycling
and with the tacit assumption that plans, once
through a friend’s neighbourhood? Find out if
made, were inviolable. Coordinating the
he’s available to meet at the local coffee shop.
mechanics of arriving at the same place at (nearly) the same time required determining
The ability to make these decisions in real-
not only the meeting place and time, but also
time and based upon the current context both
the underlying questions of who needed a
removes and increases uncertainty in travelling.
ride and who could provide one, how long
The removal is simple to understand – in the event
one would wait if one or more parties were
that something goes wrong with my journey, I
delayed, how a message would be passed
can (generally) quickly and easily inform others
along in the event of a disruption, and any
of that change. If I get lost, I can look up new
other number of contingency plans necessary
directions. If someone’s plans change, that
due to the reality that circumstances sometimes
information is easy to send quickly and with
changed, but plans would remain static and
a minimum of fuss. The addition of uncertainty
based upon best knowledge at the time they
is perhaps more perplexing. At heart here is
were made.
the respect for time, and the expectations we
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have regarding timeliness and the fulfilment
highly personalised information via roadway
of plans once made. The inviolate nature of
messaging, smartphone transport applications
plans that we once depended upon has now
(‘apps’), and social networking sites carries
become
changes,
with it the expectation that we will use these
and the knowledge that the means of
mediums to share information with travellers.
vulnerable.
Last-minute
communicating these changes is only a screen tap away, lays open the ability to re-
Communication
of
transport
events
and
frame plans and expectations frequently and,
disruptions, along with options and itineraries,
at times, carelessly. The concept of ‘on time’
compliments and complaints, now takes
becomes fluid, until it meshes with ‘close to the
place in the very public and timely arenas
time by which I said I would try to be there in
of Facebook and Twitter. These public and
my last text update’. The process of updating,
spatially-unbounded mediums require, more
rearranging, and reconfiguring expectations is
than ever, that information shared be accurate,
still planning under uncertainty – the timeframe
relevant, and timely; otherwise, their benefit
of that uncertainty has simply shrunk itself to fit
over timetabled information is negligible
into the milliseconds between text sent and text
and their usefulness subject to question.
received.
Meanwhile, the balance of information shared by ‘official’ sources (such as transport agencies
But what is it really like out there?
and media outlets) versus ‘unofficial’ sources (such as private individuals) is in constant shift,
Despite the indefiniteness with which we treat
as providers work to confirm the veracity and
our time and space, we do still expect that
validity of reported transport disruptions, and
the official transport information provided to
calculate the reputational ramifications of
us will be valid and impervious to fluid time.
sharing un-validated data quickly, or verified
We expect that the estimated drive times
data too slowly.
provided on variable message signs will be accurate, that real-time public transport
So, where does that leave us?
arrival times will more-or-less reflect reality, and that news reports of traffic delays will
Transport and travel have clearly changed
be timely and allow us to make better, more
with increasing reliance upon real-time and
efficient routing decisions. Both as persons
personalised means of information sharing
in the transport network and as those tasked
and
with its development and management, we
that underlies all of this, however, is that we
anticipate that the ability to both disseminate
are moving towards putting the travellers
and
themselves at the heart of the transport network.
access
real-time,
on-demand,
and
communication.
Perhaps
the
theme
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We are no longer constrained to plan travel
reflective of the new reality? Do our models
based solely upon information received from
and methods accurately reflect the timely
roadways, vehicles, or a static network; rather,
provision of data and subsequent behavioural
we can plan and execute travel based on the
changes? Are the expectations of travellers
needs of the person – where she wishes to
aligned with the actions of transport providers?
be and when and to do what. Such a shift
Are
is evident in the move towards activity- and
operators making adequate use of emerging
agent-based modelling systems, but it is also
communications
evident in how transport is treated by the
and addressing these questions will be of
traveller. The rapidity of communication and
concern tantamount to the construction of new
decision-making leads us to shift our transport
infrastructure in coming years, as we work
expectations: plans may change, but we can
to refine our travel needs contextualised by
still get where we need to go – predicated,
our technological abilities. Planning for the
of course, on accurate and timely data.
person in the context of a network comprised
transport
providers,
managers,
technologies?
and
Answering
of travel modes, communications systems, and This shift has, of course, policy and funding
fluctuating conceptions of space and time
implications as well. Recognition of this is evident
will require revised thinking – of priorities, of
in the increased investment in communications
expectations, and of future needs.
infrastructure within the United Kingdom (and elsewhere), and expanded use of technology such as public transport smartcards, real time
transport
information
systems,
and
dissemination of transport information via nontraditional outlets such as Twitter. Conversely, the wealth of data being collected by travellers via smartphone apps, GPS-enabled devices, and other sensors represents a rich source of personbased information to inform transport planning and project implementation. Questions of privacy, anonymity and ethics will need to be more fully considered and addressed before efficient use can be made of such resources, but the potential implications are boundless. Which then opens a series of questions: Are our traditional models of transport provision 4
January 2015 © 2015 New Cities Foundation www.newcitiesfoundation.org RIGHTS AND PERMISSIONS Please cite the work as follows: Caitlin D Cottrill (2015), “The Permutation of Plans” in Re-imagining Urban Mobility, New Cities Foundation, Geneva. If you create a translation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution: “This translation was not created by the New Cities Foundation and should not be considered an official New Cities Foundation translation. The New Cities Foundation shall not be liable for any content or error in this translation.” All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to the New Cities Foundation:
[email protected]. Design and Layout: Rachel Dare.
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