The spotlight

No.2 MARCH 2015

The spotlight The 2015 General Election What you need to know...

Welcome to the second edition of Westminster Advisers’ Spotlight briefing, which brings you an overview of the key moments from the previous month in politics, the latest political polling and what the numbers could mean for each party’s post-election seat-share. This month we’ve seen the Chancellor deliver his final Budget of this Parliament, the Lib Dems unveil their yellow “alternative fiscal scenario”, and a headline-grabbing announcement on tuition fees from Labour. Now that the election is little more than six weeks’ away, the policy announcements are coming thick and fast. As is the political and media mud-slinging which we can only expect to increase as we head in to the election campaign proper on March 30th. Ed Miliband’s two kitchen debacle, Conservative Party Chairman Grant Shapps’ promise to make everyone ‘filthy, stinking rich’, and the Lib Dem’s former chief fundraiser Ibrahim Taguri’s conversations with a fake party donor have all been prominent in the headlines and social media. We’ve been commenting on some of the key debates that have emerged so far on the Westminster Advisers blog and on twitter, as well as live-tweeting some of the excellent events that our team has held over the last four weeks. This report will provide a snap-shot analysis of: • How the most recent polls would translate into seats if the election were held tomorrow. • The different types of government that may emerge. • What each of the main parties have pledged in policy terms over the last month.

I hope you find this month’s edition useful. Best wishes,

Dominic Church Managing Director

The spotlight | What you need to know... www.westminsteradvisers.co.uk | 020 7222 9500 | Westminster Advisers, 80 Petty France, London, SW1H 9EX

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If there were an election tomorrow, how many seats would each party win? 350

WORKING MAJORITY

326

TECHNICAL MAJORITY

2015 PREDICTED RESULT 276

2015 PREDICTED SEATS










OTHER

• Whilst there hasn’t been much of a Budget bounce evident in the polls since the Chancellor delivered his statement, it’s widely been judged as a success in so far as there hasn’t been any major unravelling of his proposed measures. • Last month the polls predicted that the Conservatives would have three more seats than Labour in the next Parliament (284 and 281 respectively); this month’s polls suggest that the Conservatives would now have ten more seats than Labour (286 and 276 respectively). • A hung parliament remains the likeliest scenario, with no one party currently looking like it will command even a simple majority in May. Other than majority government, all other types of arrangement remain possible, including formal coalition, confidence and supply, and vote-by-vote negotiating. • Data source: Election Forecast. The spotlight | What you need to know... www.westminsteradvisers.co.uk | 020 7222 9500 | Westminster Advisers, 80 Petty France, London, SW1H 9EX

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If there is a hung parliament, what combination of parties would likely form a government or support a minority government? 350

WORKING MAJORITY

326

TECHNICAL MAJORITY

276 SEATS

286 SEATS

287 SEATS

294 SEATS

302 SEATS

Conservatives 286 seats

UKIP 1 seat

Labour 276 seats

Greens 1 seat

Liberal Democrats 26 seats

SDLP 3 seats

SNP 39 seats

Plaid Cymru 2 seats

DUP 8 seats

Others 8 seats

312 SEATS

315 SEATS 320 SEATS

347 SEATS

• With a hung parliament remaining the likeliest scenario, a left-leaning partnership (potentially through a combination of confidence and supply and horse-trading on a vote-by-vote basis with the minor parties) is currently the front-runner, numerically speaking, of being able to reach a working majority of around 350 seats. • A partnership between the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and DUP could edge them over the line for a working majority if they can command the support of one or more additional smaller parties. • The SNP and Liberal Democrats remain in strong positions to influence the shape of the next government. The spotlight | What you need to know... www.westminsteradvisers.co.uk | 020 7222 9500 | Westminster Advisers, 80 Petty France, London, SW1H 9EX

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Budget Headlines • The public were asked “Do you think the Budget was fair?”

42%

YES

27%)

NO

• The OBR says that the government’s forecast for public spending in the next parliament “leaves a rollercoaster profile for implied public services spending … a much sharper squeeze on real spending in 2016-17 and 2017-18 than anything seen over the past five years followed by the biggest increase in real spending for a decade in 2019-20.” • Corporation tax will be cut to 20% from April 2015. Corporation tax rules will be amended to prevent contrived loss arrangements. Businesses will no longer be allowed to take account of foreign branches when reclaiming VAT on overheads. • The tax-free personal allowance is being increased to £10,800 in 2016-17 and £11,000 from April 2017. In 2016-17 the threshold at which people start paying 40p tax will rise from £42,385 to £42,700 and in 2017-18 to £43,300. • From April 2016, a tax-free allowance of £1,000 (or £500 for higher rate taxpayers) will be introduced for the interest that people earn on savings.

• ISAs are being reformed so that instead of being able to put in up to £15,240 in the 2015-16 tax year, people can take out their money and put it back in within the same year, without losing their ISA tax benefits. This is as long as the repayment is made in the same financial year as the withdrawal. • From April 2016, people will have the freedom to sell their annuity for a cash lump sum. Currently, people who have bought an annuity are unable to sell it without having to pay at least 55% tax on it. The pension pot lifetime allowance is to be reducedfrom £1.25m to £1m from next year, saving the government £600m annually. • Beer duty will be cut by 1p, cider by 2p and whisky by 2p. Wine duty has been frozen, while tobacco and gaming taxes are to remain unchanged. • The amount of small donations charities can get an extra 25% top up payment on in gift aid without needing any paperwork is increasing from £5,000 to £8,000 a year. • Annual bank levy is to rise to 0.21%, raising an extra £900m. • Supplementary charge on North Sea oil producers is to be cut from 30% to 20% while petroleum revenue tax is to fall from 50% to 35%. A new tax allowance will encourage investment in the North Sea. • Mental health services to get £1.25bn in extra funding.


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What’s happened on the campaign trail so far.

FEB

26 MARCH

02 MARCH

Figures released by the ONS show that net migration was estimated to be 298,000 in the year ending September 2014 – in stark contrast to the Conservatives’ pledge in 2010 to reduce net migration to the “tens of thousands”. The Conservatives’ six election themes are unveiled, designed to make an offer to voters at every stage in their life cycle – jobs, taxes, home-ownership, education and retirement – all underpinned by addressing the deficit and ensuring economic growth. David Cameron says that he would give MPs a free vote on repealing the Hunting Act.

06 MARCH

09 MARCH

David Cameron announces 49 new free schools and plans to build 500 more by 2020, as a YouGov poll shows that 50 per cent of voters think no more should be built. The Conservatives reveal an election poster that shows Ed Miliband in the SNP’s Alex Salmond’s pocket.

09 MARCH

11 MARCH

15 MARCH

16 MARCH

Conservative peer and former BBC Chair Lord Grade of Yarmouth accuses broadcasters of “playing politics” with their proposals for election debates. It is revealed that Conservative Party Chairman Grant Shapps MP continued to work as a self-styled “millionaire web marketer” under a pseudonym while serving as an MP. It emerges that Gavin Barwell, MP for Croydon Central, asked his constituents not to mention David Cameron or the Conservatives in letters of support to their friends and neighbours. David Cameron tells Buzzfeed he’ll remain an MP even if he is not reelected as Prime Minister.

16 MARCH

Chancellor George Osborne unveils his sixth Budget.

18 MARCH

09 MARCH

16 MARCH

17 MARCH

20 MARCH

22 MARCH

Reports indicate that the Conservatives may offer an EU referendum in 2016, rather than by 2017 as previously promised. The nationwide rollout of universal credit begins, as the Conservatives focus on welfare. The party pledges that benefit recipients with addictions or an obesity problem who do not follow treatment plans will have their entitlements withdrawn. School-leavers who want to claim benefits would be required to do community service, David Cameron announces. Figures are released showing that A&Es in England have failed to meet the target of seeing 95 per cent of patients within four hours for the 20th week in a row. It is reported that the television debates are unlikely to go ahead, as a Conservative source says that all three major parties have issues with the broadcasters’ proposals. David Cameron confirms that his party would continue to maintain universal pensioner benefits.

23 The spotlight | What you need to know... www.westminsteradvisers.co.uk | 020 7222 9500 | Westminster Advisers, 80 Petty France, London, SW1H 9EX

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FEB

27 MARCH

02 MARCH

Ed Miliband announces that the Labour party in government would reduce tuition fees to £6,000 a year and increase maintenance support to £3,800. These changes would primarily be funded by reducing Pensions Tax Relief for people on incomes of over £150,000 to 20 per cent. Labour selects Naz Shah – known for her campaigning after her mother was jailed for killing her abusive partner - to challenge George Galloway in Bradford West. It is announced that Tony Blair will donate £1,000 to each Labour candidate in the party’s 106 target seats.

04 MARCH

Ed Miliband announces that he would put election television debates on a statutory footing.

07 MARCH

Three Labour candidates announce that they will reject Tony Blair’s donations.

08 MARCH

09 MARCH

12 MARCH

13 MARCH

Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls warns that the Conservatives will implement “extreme” spending cuts if re-elected that would put public services at risk. It emerges that a photograph of Ed Miliband in his kitchen was taken in the smaller of two kitchens in his north London home. The party focuses on energy policy again, pledging to give Ofgem the power to force suppliers to cut bills for their customers. Ed Miliband announces his party’s five ‘pledge card’ policies for the election.

14 MARCH

Ed Miliband rules out the prospect of Labour entering into a formal coalition with the SNP after the election.

16 MARCH

16

Tony Blair defends his government’s immigration policies, stating that they were economically successful. He calls for Labour not to “indulge the rhetoric” of UKIP.


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MARCH

03 MARCH

12 MARCH

14 MARCH

Party leader and Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg unveils a manifesto pledge to eradicate childhood illiteracy in a decade from May. The Telegraph reveals that the party’s candidate in Brent Central, Ibrahim Taguri, advised a fake donor on how to circumvent political donation laws. Mr Taguri steps down as a Lib Dem candidate, but states that he will fight the election as an independent, further hurting the Lib Dem’s chances of retaining the marginal seat. Former party president Tim Farron MP warns that the Lib Dems’ decision to go into coalition with the Conservatives could tarnish their party for a generation. The party reaffirms its commitment to protecting all education spending in real terms in the next parliament.

15 MARCH

18 MARCH

19

The Liberal Democrats have clear wins in the Budget, including the provision of extra funding for children’s mental health and another increase in the personal allowance. Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander presents his party’s “alternative fiscal scenario” in the House of Commons the day after the coalition Government’s budget.


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What’s happened on the campaign trail so far. The Others FEB

24 FEB

28 MARCH

09 MARCH

11 MARCH

12 MARCH

14 MARCH

16 MARCH

20 MARCH

20

Green Party leader Natalie Bennett gives an “excruciating” interview to LBC in which she failed to explain how the party would fund its promise of delivering half a million new homes. UKIP MP Douglas Carswell intimates that the party may seek reform of the electoral system if they hold the balance of power after the election. Sinn Féin withdraws its support for the welfare reform bill in the Northern Ireland Assembly, reneging on its commitments under the Stormont House Agreement. The DUP announces its “red lines” for entering into a governing arrangement in the event of a hung parliament: a review of the bedroom tax, a guarantee to protect defence spending, and EU treaty changes to give the UK greater control over its borders. UKIP leader Nigel Farage says that remarks that he would abolish anti-discrimination legislation were “wilfully misinterpreted”. UKIP’s leader in Scotland, David Coburn MEP, compares Scottish Government Minister Humza Yousaf MSP to convicted terrorist Abu Hamza. Nigel Farage says that he will stand down as UKIP leader if he does not win a seat in South Thanet at the election. Plaid Cymru announces that it would seek for Wales to be treated the same as Scotland under the Barnett Formula in exchange for the party’s support in the next parliament. This would equate to an extra £1.2bn annual funding for Wales. UKIP MEP and general election candidate Janice Atkinson is suspended from the party after a Sun newspaper investigation into an expenses claim by a member of her staff.


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