Tourism Business Monitor 2015

Tourism Business Monitor 2015

Wave 1 – Christmas and New Year

Contents • Background • Key findings • Business dashboards • Visitor profile • Business performance • Business confidence

2

Background, objectives and research method Tourism Business Monitor designed to measure, monitor and understand tourism business performance and confidence and the factors which influence them. Telephone survey conducted five times per year immediately following key tourism periods among: • c. 500 accommodation establishments (c. 250 serviced / c. 250 non-serviced), including mix by region, establishment size and hotels / guest houses / B&B / self-catering / caravan and campsites. • c. 300 visitor attractions including mix by region, attraction type, size (measured by annual visitor admissions) and free / paid admission. Questions on ‘hot topics’ included on a periodic basis. Fieldwork dates: Jan 2015: 5-9 Jan 2015, reviewing the Christmas and New Year period 2014 Nov 2014: 3-9 Nov 2014, reviewing mid-September until the end of the October Sept 2014: 8-14 Sept 2014, reviewing the period from mid-July up until the end of the summer holidays Apr 2014: 24 Apr-1 May 2014, reviewing the Easter period 2014 Jan 2014: 6-12 January 2014, reviewing the Christmas and New Year period 2013 Nov 2013: 4-10 Nov 2013, reviewing mid-September until the end of October Sept 2013: 9-14 Sept 2013, reviewing the period from mid-July up until the end of the summer holidays Jul 2013: 11-19 Jul 2013, reviewing period after the Easter holidays up until mid-July Apr 2013: 15-21 Apr 2013, reviewing period from January until the end of the Easter holidays Jan 2013: 7-13 Jan 2013, reviewing Christmas and New Year period 2012

3

Key Findings Accommodation businesses and visitor attractions both improved visitor numbers in 2014 compared with 2013, with an average growth of 6%. However, this tailed off slightly towards the end of the year for accommodation, with fewer businesses growing their numbers during the Christmas and New Year period.

Growth in the attractions market has remained fairly consistent since Easter 2014. There is more variation in the accommodation market. The campsite sector continues to strengthen, with two thirds reporting an improvement in visitor numbers for the Christmas and New Year period, no doubt associated with the clement start to the winter across most of England. Hotels remain satisfied with their performance, although fewer exceeded the previous year’s visitor numbers than in recent periods. Advance booking of accommodation has dipped since the summer, which is expected, but is slightly higher than at the same time last year. Confidence levels remain strong, although there has been notable drops among the more weather-dependent caravan/campsite and outdoor attraction businesses as we approach the colder winter months.

Buoyed by the successful summer and post-summer holiday periods, both accommodation and attraction businesses are feeling fairly optimistic about 2015 as a whole being better than 2014.

4

Business Dashboards

Business Performance Dashboard ACCOMMODATION Visitor numbers (%) 22 29

20 16

VISITOR ATTRACTIONS Visitor numbers (%)

Versus same period previous year… Down

23 15

Jan-15

64

62

68

2014

Jan-15

2014

Satisfaction (%)

Satisfaction (%) 2 11 42

15

Same Up

50

18

8

2 5

Satisfied with business performance…

45

7

49

49

44

44

Jan-15

2014

Not at all Not very Quite

46

47

Jan-15

2014

Very

PERIOD ASKED ABOUT FOR PAST BUSINESS PERFORMANCE Jan 2015: Christmas and New Year period 2014 Q3/4. Q7/8,

6

Business Confidence Dashboard: confidence for next 1.5-2.5 months

Very confident

ACCOMMODATION 89 78 43

86

48

55

81

83

52

54

29

29

46

38

July 2013

Sept 2013

Nov 2013

Jan 2014

94

92

91

89

62

62

56

25

32

30

36

Apr 2013

July 2013

Sept 2013

Until early Summer

Until end of school summer holidays

Until end of October

23

Apr 2013

Fairly confident 90

52

38

Apr 2014

91

92

43

42

87

45

86

54

48

49

42

Jul 2014

Sept 2014

Nov 2014

Jan 2015

93

97

92

95

32

ATTRACTIONS 89

64

Q13

98

54

51

64

58

26

34

35

42

37

45

Nov 2013

Jan 2014

Apr 2014

Jul 2014

Sept 2014

Nov 2014

Jan 2015

Until end of the year

Until the end of Easter

Until early Summer

Until end of school summer holidays


Until end of the year

Until end of Easter

63

55

7

Visitor Profile

Changing Visitor Profile (year-to-date vs. previous year): Accommodation Up 44 29

15 Jan 13 Apr 13

30

22

Overseas visitors

43

27

27

Domestic visitors

39

23

18

26

15

Jan 13 Apr 13

22

13

34

19

16

34

24

29 23

25 20

Jul 13 Sept 13 Nov 13 Jan 14 Apr 14

39

37

36


38

35

17

38

39

NET: Up - Down

Down

30

38

46

+37

19

12 9 11 Jul 14 Sept 14 Nov 14 Jan 15

31

38

30

39

+31 19

14

18

8 Jul 14 Sept 14 Nov 14 Jan 15

46 34

36

33

38

45

51

24

Repeat visitors

10

23

Jan 13 Apr 13

8 10

9 8 7 Jul 13 Sept 13 Nov 13 Jan 14 Apr 14

9

9

4

3

Jul 14 Sept 14 Nov 14 Jan 15

PERIOD ASKED ABOUT FOR PAST BUSINESS PERFORMANCE Jan 2015: The whole of 2014 Q12

+43

9

Changing Visitor Profile (year-to-date vs. previous year): Attractions Up

26

Visitors from immediate locality

12

26

28 11

37

8

Jan13

Apr 13

44 36

12

11

12

11


35

32

17

13

Jan 13 Apr 13

43

26 14

23

21

Overseas visitors

35

22

28

5

7


45

Other domestic visitors

27

32

27 5

34

37

8

8

38

10

43 30

9

14

29

Jul 14 Sept 14 Nov 14

37 10

+41 4

43

11

10

Jan15

54

11

+43


35

20


43

9

36

15

35

31

+17 10

14


PERIOD ASKED ABOUT FOR PAST BUSINESS PERFORMANCE Jan 2015: The whole of 2014 Q12

45

15

Jan 13 Apr 13

39

39

5

NET: Up - Down

Down

10

Business Performance

Visitor Numbers: Year-on-year changes (up /down) Accommodation businesses and visitor attractions both improved visitor numbers compared with 2013. However, this tailed off slightly towards the end of the year for accommodation, with fewer businesses growing their numbers during the Christmas and New Year period.

Jan 2015

15

35

29

VISITOR ATTRACTIONS

%

ACCOMMODATION

%

5

Up

17

Slightly up

Jan15

7

55

15

6

17

Exactly same Slightly down

2014 as a whole

32

4

59

44

55

52

28

38

43

16

44

4

55

16

61

Down

2014 as a whole 66

50

43

35

6

62

49

55

59 41

52

15 1 16

64

61

62

Up Down -33

-34

-22

-28

-36

-22

-35

-16 -17 -22

-53 Jan Apr July Sept Nov Jan Apr 13 14 14 13 13 13 13

Jul Sept Nov Jan 14 14 14 15

-34

-29

-18 -21 -22 -18 -23 -23 -26 -31

-47

Jan Apr July Sept Nov Jan Apr 13 14 14 13 13 13 13


PERIODS ASKED ABOUT FOR PAST BUSINESS PERFORMANCE Jan: Christmas and New Year period / Apr: Easter period / Jul: After Easter holidays up until mid-July /Sept: Mid-July up until the end of the summer holidays / Nov: Mid-September until the end of October

Q3/4 & Q7/8

12

Visitor Numbers: Year-on-year changes (%) Both business types have seen growth of 6% across 2014 as a whole, with attractions performing slightly better over the Christmas and New Year period.

ACCOMMODATION

VISITOR ATTRACTIONS 2 5

2

4

12

Increase in visitors… Over 50% 31-50%

3 1 4

1

14

11

21-30%

9

11-20% 30

19

5-10%

21

27

Less than 5% 13

9

10

Decrease in visitors…

-9

-8

Less than 5%

-6 -1 -1 -2 -2

-8

5-10%

-1 -0.5

11-20%

-10 -5 -1 -1 -2

13 -6 -8 -1 -1

21-30% 31-50%

Jan 2015

2014

4%

6%

Over 50%

Average % change

Jan 2015

2014

5%

6%

PERIOD ASKED ABOUT FOR PAST BUSINESS PERFORMANCE Jan 2015: Christmas and New Year period Q9, Q5

13

Changing business performance: By business type Larger attractions and hotels had a particularly successful Christmas and New Year, benefiting from more of the international seasonal holiday trips. Attractions with an outdoor element (all outdoor or mixed sites) and campsites also fared well, no doubt associated with the clement start to the winter across most of England. ACCOMMODATION - BY TYPE

Down Slightly down

Guest house / B&B

Self catering

14 1 30

16 3

20 9

16 3 13

32

26

17

42

31

6

16

49

34

Exactly same Slightly up Up % change in visitor numbers:

Caravan / camping

Hotels

5%

22

3%

3%

6%

ATTRACTIONS – BY TYPE

Less than 20k

Over 20k

Indoor

Outdoor

19 9 21 7

15 4 12 7

17 7 18 12

15 5 14 4 62

62

46

18 6 13 4 59

4%

4%

5%

4%

44

5%

Mixed

14 Q3/4, Q5

Changing business performance: By business type Growth in the attractions market has remained fairly consistent since Easter 2014. There is more variation in the accommodation market. The campsite sector continues to strengthen, with two thirds reporting an improvement in visitor numbers for the Christmas and New Year period. Hotels remain satisfied with their performance, although fewer exceeded the previous year’s visitor numbers than in recent periods. ACCOMMODATION - BY TYPE % Visitors up on last year

% Very Satisfied

Hotels 68 55 50 39

55 48

Guest house / B&B

38

Self catering Caravan / camping

Apr 13

Jul Sept Nov Jan Apr 13 13 13 14 14


Apr 13



ATTRACTION TYPE % Visitors up on last year

% Very Satisfied Less than 20k 69 67 63 58 51

48 44 36

Over 20k Indoor Outdoor Mixed

Apr 13



Apr 13


PERIOD ASKED ABOUT FOR PAST BUSINESS PERFORMANCE Jan 2015: Christmas and New Year period Q3/4, Q6


15

Business Confidence

Advance booking levels: Accommodation Advance booking levels have dipped since the summer, which is expected, but are slightly higher than at this same time last year.

10

%

6 14

21

2 6

5 9

18

6

6

15

13

3 6 22

1 5 20

3 6

13

Very poor Poor

32

Period asked about:

Q14

37 24

9

Jan Jan 2013 2013

Apr Apr 2013 2013

33

2013

37

34

39 21

Jul-13 July

33

39 32

37 13

10

35

38

Good

Survey conducted:

35

45

Just OK Very good

27

36

35

4

24

27 30

6

Sept Sept 2013 2013

14

Nov Nov 2013 2013

Until the Until late Until end Until end Until end of Spring/ of of end of Easter early summer October the year Summer hols

28

24 12

21

16

Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 Jan Apr Jul Sept Nov-14 Nov Jan 2014

2014

2014

2014

2014

2015

Until the Until late Until end Until end Until end Until the end of Spring/ of of of the end of Easter early summer October year Easter Summer hols

17

Confidence in performance for forthcoming period: By business type Confidence levels remain strong following summer, although there has been notable drops among the more weatherdependent caravan/campsite and outdoor attraction businesses as we approach the colder winter months

ACCOMMODATION Hotels 46

Guest house / B&B

35

Self catering Caravan / camping

17

July 13

Sept 13

Nov 13

Jan 14

Apr 14

Jul 14

Sept 14

Nov 14

VISITOR ATTRACTIONS

Jan-15 52 51 49 39 34

Less than 20k

Over 20k Indoor

Outdoor Mixed

Q13

July 13

Sept 13

Nov 13

Jan 14

Apr 14

July 14

Sept 14

Nov 14

Jan-15

July 2013 Until end of the Summer holidays

Sept 2013

Nov 2013

Jan 2014

Nov 2014

Jan 2015

Until the end of the year


July 2014 Until end of school summer holidays

Sept 2014


Apr 2014 Until late Spring/ early Summer


Until the end of the year


18

Positive verbatim comments on business confidence

Factors such as the economy looking good and people staying in the UK for their holidays (Attraction) We’ve got the marketing in place and it seems to be working. The number of tourists is increasing (Attraction) I have lots of advanced ticket sales (Attraction) Reasonable because we have already got booking in hand - we usually have bookings for between January and February but we already some for Easter (Accommodation) Quite positive for the next two to three months as bookings look strong and we've had good feedback from a recent advertising campaign (Accommodation) The fact that it has been a mild winter gives us better prospects and there are some local factors such as us being in Wembley - so we do well when Wembley has an event (Accommodation)

“

“

19

Negative verbatim comments on business confidence

“ Not very good. Business has just dropped and dropped as we cater for the lower end of the market. Before we used to cater for people who wanted to spend one to two weeks, but I think people want shorter breaks now (Accommodation) The business prospect for country properties is poor during winter months because of the weather and that will influence my bookings over the next coming months until Easter (Accommodation) There aren't many bookings in there at the moment and we're going through quite a quiet period - December to January is always quiet (Accommodation)

“ 20 Q18

Business optimism for 2015 Buoyed by the successful summer and post-summer holiday periods, both accommodation and attraction businesses are feeling fairly optimistic about 2015 as a whole being better than 2014.

ACCOMMODATION 1 4

36

3 7

34

Down

ATTRACTIONS

2

3

14

9

2 7

26

31

41

38

20

22

1 3

1 4

0 5

35

33

32

1 7

30

2 6

24

2 8

1 2

28 24

30

Slightly down Exactly same Slightly up Up

40

18

40

36

16

17

44

48

16

14

Jan Apr Jul Sept Nov Jan 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2015

46

46

17

15

48

45

19

20

47

21

Jan Apr Jul Sept Nov Jan 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2015

21 Q15