Tourism Towards 2030 - World Tourism Organization UNWTO

Oct 10, 2011 - Asia and the Pacific will gain most of the new arrivals. Inbound tourism by region of destination. International Tourist Arrivals, million. Europe.
638KB Sizes 3 Downloads 325 Views
UNWTO General Assembly 19th Session Gyeongju Republic of Korea 10 October 2011

Tourism 2020 Vision vs. actual trend World International tourist arrivals 1,600 1,400 1,200 million

1,000

Tourism 2020 Vision forecast Actual 1995-2010*

800 600

940 mn

881 mn

400

528 mn

200 0

1995 Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

Tourism Towards 2030 • A broad research project in continuation of UNWTO’s work in the area of long-term forecasting initiated in the 1990s. • Objectives: – – – –

Assist UNWTO Members in formulating policies and long-term strategic plans Provide a global reference on tourism future development Reinforce UNWTO’s role in agenda setting for tourism-related subjects Constitute a reference for UNWTO strategic documents, programme of work and activities

• Central in the study are the projections for international tourism flows in the two decades 2010-2030 – Data series on international tourist arrivals as reported by destination countries are used as the key indicator, taking into account subregion of destination, region of origin, mode of transport and purpose of visit for the period 1980-2010 – The quantitative forecast is based on a causal econometric model with international tourist arrivals as the dependent variable and as independent variables growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a proxy for traveller affluence and business travel potential, and also cost of transport

Growth in international tourism will continue, but at a more moderate pace International tourism, World

International Tourist Arrivals, % change over previous year

12 10

10

9

9

8

9 8

7

7 6

6

4

4

4

3

3

2 0

7

6

6

7

6

5 4

3

4 3

3

2

1 0 0

0

0

-2

-2

-4

-4

-6 1980/'79

1985/'84

1990/'89

source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

1995/'94

2000/'99

2005/'04

2010/'09

2015/'14

2020/'19

2025/'24

2030/'29

International tourist arrivals to increase by 43 million a year on average International tourism, World

International Tourist Arrivals, absolute change over previous year, million

80 70

60

58

56 49 45 45 39

40 30 25

20

26

22

21 20

20

16

15

20

10

4

0

0

27 22

13 8

33 28

0

-1

-2

-11

-20

-35

-40 1980

1985

1990

source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

International tourist arrivals to reach 1.8 billion by 2030 International tourism, World

International Tourist Arrivals, million

2,000 1,750 1,500 1,250 1,000 750 500 250 0 1980

1985

1990

source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

Emerging economy destinations to surpass advanced des