Oct 10, 2011 - Asia and the Pacific will gain most of the new arrivals. Inbound tourism by region of destination. Intern
UNWTO General Assembly 19th Session Gyeongju Republic of Korea 10 October 2011
Tourism 2020 Vision vs. actual trend World International tourist arrivals 1,600 1,400 1,200 million
1,000
Tourism 2020 Vision forecast Actual 1995-2010*
800 600
940 mn
881 mn
400
528 mn
200 0
1995 Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Tourism Towards 2030 • A broad research project in continuation of UNWTO’s work in the area of long-term forecasting initiated in the 1990s. • Objectives: – – – –
Assist UNWTO Members in formulating policies and long-term strategic plans Provide a global reference on tourism future development Reinforce UNWTO’s role in agenda setting for tourism-related subjects Constitute a reference for UNWTO strategic documents, programme of work and activities
• Central in the study are the projections for international tourism flows in the two decades 2010-2030 – Data series on international tourist arrivals as reported by destination countries are used as the key indicator, taking into account subregion of destination, region of origin, mode of transport and purpose of visit for the period 1980-2010 – The quantitative forecast is based on a causal econometric model with international tourist arrivals as the dependent variable and as independent variables growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a proxy for traveller affluence and business travel potential, and also cost of transport
Growth in international tourism will continue, but at a more moderate pace International tourism, World
International Tourist Arrivals, % change over previous year
12 10
10
9
9
8
9 8
7
7 6
6
4
4
4
3
3
2 0
7
6
6
7
6
5 4
3
4 3
3
2
1 0 0
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
-6 1980/'79
1985/'84
1990/'89
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
1995/'94
2000/'99
2005/'04
2010/'09
2015/'14
2020/'19
2025/'24
2030/'29
International tourist arrivals to increase by 43 million a year on average International tourism, World
International Tourist Arrivals, absolute change over previous year, million
80 70
60
58
56 49 45 45 39
40 30 25
20
26
22
21 20
20
16
15
20
10
4
0
0
27 22
13 8
33 28
0
-1
-2
-11
-20
-35
-40 1980
1985
1990
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
International tourist arrivals to reach 1.8 billion by 2030 International tourism, World
International Tourist Arrivals, million
2,000 1,750 1,500 1,250 1,000 750 500 250 0 1980
1985
1990
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Emerging economy destinations to surpass advanced destinations in 2015 Inbound tourism, advanced and emerging economies
International Tourist Arrivals, million
1,250
1,000
emerging economies
750
advanced economies 500
250
0 1980
1985
1990
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Asia and the Pacific will gain most of the new arrivals Inbound tourism by region of destination
International Tourist Arrivals, million
800
Europe
700 600
Asia and the Pacific 500 400 300
Americas 200
Middle East
100
Africa 0 1980
1985
1990
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Asia and the Pacific, the Middle East and Africa to increase their shares 1980 Middle East Africa
3%
Americas 23%
3%
2010
Asia and the Pacific
Americas
8%
16% Asia and the Pacific
Middle East
22%
6%
Europe 63%
2030 Africa
Americas
5%
Asia and the Pacific
14%
30%
Middle East 8% Europe 51%
Africa 7%
Europe 41%
North-East Asia will be the most visited subregion in 2030
Europe continues to lead in international arrivals received per 100 of population
No major change in share by purpose of visit International tourism by purpose of visit
International Tourist Arrivals, million
1,000 900
Leisure, recreation and holidays
800 700 600
VFR, health, religion, other
500 400 300 200
Business and professional
100 0 1980
1985
1990
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Air transport will continue to increase market share, but at a slower pace International tourism by means of transport
International Tourist Arrivals, million
1,000
by air
750
over surface
500
250
0 1980
1985
1990
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Travel between regions continues to grow slightly faster than within the same region International tourism by region of destination and origin
International Tourist Arrivals, share, %
100 90 80
within same region
70 60 50 40
between regions
30 20 10 0 1980
1985
1990
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Asia and the Pacific will also be the outbound region that grows most Outbound tourism by region of origin 900
1980
1995
International Tourist Arrivals generated, million
2010
832
2030
800 700 600
541
509
500 400 308 265
300
204 200
160 90
100 6
12
30
71
110
169
88
81
25
6
10
37
0
Africa
Americas
Asia and the Pacific
Europe
Middle East
Outbound tourism participation is highest in Europe and still low in Asia and the Pacific Outbound tourism by region of origin 100
1980
1995
International Tourist Arrivals generated per 100 population
2010
2030
89
90 80 70 57
60 50 36
40 30 20 10
24
22 6
9
14
12 2
1
3
14
25
21
17
17
12
6 1
3
6
5
6
0
World
Africa
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
Americas
Asia and the Pacific
Europe
Middle East
What if assumptions change? Tourism Towards 2030: global projection and sensitivity analysis
International Tourist Arrivals, million
2,000 1,750
Actual data 1980-2010 Transport costs continue to fall (scenario 3)
1,500
Central projection Faster rising cost of transport (scenario 2)
1,250
A slower-than-expected economic recovery and future growth (Scenario 1)
1,000 750 500 250 0 1980
1985
1990
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
One-Page Tourism Towards 2030 • Global growth in international tourist arrivals to continue, but at a more moderate pace, from 4.2% per year (1980–2020) to 3.3% (2010–2030), as a result of four factors: – – – –
The base volumes are higher, so smaller increases still add substantial numbers Lower GDP growth, as economies mature A lower elasticity of travel to GDP A shift from falling transport costs to increasing ones
• Tourism Towards 2030 shows that there is still a substantial potential for further expansion in coming decades. Established as well as new destinations can benefit from this trend and opportunity, provided they do shape the adequate conditions and policies with regard to business environment, infrastructure, facilitation, marketing and human resources. • Along with opportunities, challenges also arise in maximising social and economic benefits and minimising negative impacts • Long-term tourism growth pattern: more moderate, sustainable and inclusive
Tourism towards 2030 / Global Overview
Thank you very much for your attention!
World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) www.unwto.org
