Chimbu (14 per cent), Eastern Highlands (13 per cent) and. Western Highlands (10 ... Chimbu, Eastern Highlands and Morob
Sorcery Accusation–Related Violence in Papua New Guinea Part 4: Trends over Time and Geographic Spread Miranda Forsyth, Judy Putt, Thierry Bouhours and Brigitte Bouhours
In Brief 2017/31
Number
Figure 2 shows the annual number of reported incidents This is the last In Brief in a four-part series that summarises key findings from an analysis of reports of sorcery accusation– that resulted in a reported arrest. The annual number of related violence (SARV) in national newspaper articles and reported arrests stayed relatively constant during the 20 years. court cases over a 20-year period (1996–2016). The three Generally, where the reported annual number of incidents was previous In Briefs outlined the study and its methodology high, the arrest rates were lower. A consequence of this was and highlighted key aspects of, and responses to, reported a similar trend evident for the other stages in criminal justice, incidents of SARV. This In Brief presents trends across the including charges, convictions and trials. In general, provinces 20 years that are apparent in levels of reported incidents, with the higher number of reported incidents also had lower rates of arrests, charges and trials. This suggests that when victimisation and arrests. The annual number of reported incidents climbed from there is a lot of crime, police work (particularly if already two in 1996 to a peak in 2011 of 45. It is important to note that affected by a lack of staff and resources) is less efficient. Across the 20 provinces there were stark differences each incident may involve multiple victims (see In Brief 2017/29). From 2012 to 2016 the annual number varied between 19 and in the number each year of reported incidents and victims 34 per year, but as yet we are unclear as to the reasons (Figure 3). Those with the highest levels for the 20-year behind these variations. Possible explanations are lead up to period included Morobe (15 per cent of all reported incidents), elections, public health crises, and reasons related to reach Chimbu (14 per cent), Eastern Highlands (13 per cent) and and interest of journalists. Readers are invited to get in touch Western Highlands (10 per cent). At the other end of the with the authors to speculate. We are mindful that the cases spectrum with less than 1 per cent of reported incidents recorded are far from comprehensive (see In Brief 2017/28), were Manus and Central Province. These numbers represent which makes analysis difficult and potentially misleading. As an average across 20 years but it should be noted that the explained in In Brief 2017/28, the intention of the broader Figure 1: Trends in reported harm to victims, PNG, 1996–2016 project is to analyse these data in conjunction with data obtained from a range of other sources. 160 During the 20-year period a total of 610 victims killed 140 were reported as killed, 340 wounded and 493 were wounded not physically harmed but suffered property damage not physically harmed 120 (usually arson) or psychological damage. As Figure 1 100 shows, during the four years that had the highest number of reported victims — 2009 to 2012 — a large 80 proportion of the victims were not physically harmed as 60 far as we can tell from the newspaper reports. The trend 40 and variation in those killed each year is less dramatic with the peak years in reported numbers in 1998, 2006, 20 2009 and 2011. The lowest annual numbers in killings 0 were reported in the first few years (which is likely to be 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 attributable to lack of reporting in newspapers) but also show a decline more recently. Source: Newspaper and judgment database, ANU SARV project.
Department of Pacific Affairs
In Brief 2017/31
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1996 arrests 1998
no arrests
Eas t Ne wB Gulf ritai n Eas t Se pik Wes tern Miln eB Wes ay t Ne New w Brita in Irela nd Eng a C en tral Man us
0
Figure 3: Number of reported victims by type of harm by province, PNG, 1996–2016 Eas tern High Chim land bu s Mad ang Mor obe Wes tern High Sou land ther s Wes n Highl and t Se s p ik Por t Mo resb Bou y gain ville Oro
Figure 2: Number of reported incidents where at least one suspect was arrested or no arrest was recorded, PNG, 1996–2016
0
2000
2002 50 2004
2006 100 2008
2010
150
2012
killed wounded 2014
not physically harmed
2016
200
Source: Newspaper and judgment database, ANU SARV project.
rates vary greatly across the years (some with big spikes) and individual trends per province will be reported on elsewhere, together with more granular reporting at district level where possible. As already mentioned, there is likely to be significant under-reporting and the rates of under-reporting are likely to vary by province; therefore, all these figures say is that there were ‘at least’ this many cases in these provinces. There is significant variation in population across provinces and so we also analysed rates of victimisation based on per head of population, using population estimates for each province for every year from 1998 to 2016 based on the 2000 census. This analysis found notable differences in the trends in rates across provinces. The provinces with the highest rates of victimisation were Chimbu, Eastern Highlands and Morobe. The newspaper and case law reports suggest a variable upward trend in SARV over the past 20 years, with a peak in 2011 and a relative decline subsequently. There are clear The Department of Pacific Affairs (DPA) in the ANU College of Asia & the Pacific is a recognised leading centre for multidisciplinary research on contemporary Melanesia, Timor-Leste and the wider Pacific. We acknowledge the Australian Government’s support for the production of the In Brief series. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author/s and do not necessarily reflect those of the ANU or the Australian Government. See the DPA website for a full disclaimer.
250
Source: Newspaper and judgment database, ANU SARV project.
provincial ‘hot spots’ based on the dataset analysis — Chimbu, Eastern Highlands and Morobe — but each province has different patterns and trends over time that require further investigation. The data also show a consistent trend in failure of the criminal justice system to arrest suspects involved in SARV, particularly in circumstances of high numbers of incidents.
Author Notes Miranda Forsyth is an associate professor, Judy Putt a research fellow, and Thierry Bouhours and Brigitte Bouhours research associates, all in the School of Regulation and Global Governance, Australian National University.
[email protected] DepartmentofPacificAffairs @anudpa dpa.bellschool.anu.edu.au
