Oct 25, 2016 - industry forecasts have tended to over-predict production significantly in the short and .... Production
UKCS Oil and Gas Production Projections The charts and tables below show the OGA's latest projections of UK Continental Shelf (UKCS) crude oil, natural gas liquid (NGL) and natural gas production for the period 2016 to 2021. The projections for gas relate to net UKCS production available for sale. The current (October 2016) projections are based on detailed field-by-field data provided to the OGA by the current operators of each field in mid 2016. We have adjusted some of the operator field level data (for example to reflect OGA officials' judgement about likely uptime and project slippage) and also applied very significant negative contingencies to the aggregate figures. The extent of these contingencies reflect past experience of forecasting deviations; historically, industry forecasts have tended to over-predict production significantly in the short and medium term, reflecting asymmetric upside and downside risks. The contingencies also include a small notional allowance for production from recently discovered fields awaiting appraisal and as-yetundiscovered fields that might be found and brought into production in this timeframe. While central projections of oil and gas production are shown in the chart, the table on page 3 illustrates a (wide) range of possible outcomes because the future rate of production is dependent on a number of different factors including the level of investment and the success of further exploration. Operators continue to find it difficult to predict production accurately as older fields mature and their reliability reduces. A significant share of future oil and gas production is expected to come from new fields and major projects in existing fields compounding the difficulty of making accurate forecasts given the risks of project slippage and uncertain start-up profiles. The central projections are therefore our best estimates rather than a definitive prediction of future production of oil and gas from the UKCS. The chart below shows actual production levels in recent years and our current and previous (February 2016) projections; the colour-coded scales are different for oil (left-hand Y-axis) and gas (right-hand Y-axis) while the actual levels of oil and gas production are shown in lighter shades than the projected levels.
Actual/Projected UKCS Oil and Gas Production 140
60
130
55
120
50
110
45
90
40
80
35
70
30
60
25
50
20
40
Gas (billion therms)
Oil (million tonnes)
100
15
30
10
20
Actual Oil Actual Gas
10
Feb 2016 Oil Feb 2016 Gas
Oct 2016 Oil Oct 2016 Gas
5
0
0
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
Production of both oil (especially) and gas during 2016 has been higher than expected in February. The projections for oil and, to a lesser extent, gas have been revised upwards
UKCS OIL AND GAS PRODUCTION PROJECTIONS
reflecting this and the continuing robustness of industry forecasts for later years. After 2021, oil and gas production are both assumed to decline at 5% a year as illustrated in the table on page 4 below. The charts below compare the current and previous central projections with (as dashed lines) the ranges published here (on page 3) and previously.
Comparison of Oil Production Projections 60 55 50
million tonnes
45 40 35 30 25 20
15 10 5 0 Feb 2016 - High Feb 2016 Feb 2016 - Low Oct 2016 - High Oct 2016 Oct 2016 - Low
2016 55 45.3 35 55 47.1 40
2017 55 43.3 30 55 47.1 40
2018 55 43.3 30 55 47.1 40
2019 55 43.3 30 55 47.1 35
2020 55 41.1 25 55 44.7 35
2021 55 39.0 25 55 42.5 30
2020 40 28.3 20 40 30.1 20
2021 40 26.9 20 40 28.6 20
Comparison of Gas Production Projections 45 40 35
bcm
30
25 20 15 10
5 0 Feb 2016 - High Feb 2016 Feb 2016 - Low Oct 2016 - High Oct 2016 Oct 2016 - Low
2016 45 34.8 30 45 37.0 30
2017 45 33.0 25 45 35.1 25
2018 40 31.4 25 40 33.4 25
2 of 4
2019 40 29.8 20 40 31.7 20
UKCS OIL AND GAS PRODUCTION PROJECTIONS
Indicative Ranges of Production Projections a) Oil (including NGLs) 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
million tonnes 40 40 40 35 35 30 -
55 55 55 55 55 55
million tonnes 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.2 -
3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.7
b) Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs) 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 c) Gas 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
billion cubic metres 30 - 45 25 - 45 25 - 40 20 - 40 20 - 40 20 - 40
a) Production of oil (including NGLs) in 2015 was 45.3 million tonnes b) Production of NGLs in 2015 was 2.5 million tonnes c) Net production of gas in 2015 was 37 bcm
Mike Earp Oil and Gas Authority (OGA) tel +44 (0)3000 671604 e-mail
[email protected] October 2016
3 of 4
UK Oil and Net Gas Production and Demand (all level figures in million tonnes of oil equivalent) Net Oil Oil exports Oil Oil Oil Exports/ as per cent import Production Demand (Imports) of demand dependency
Net Gas Gas exports Gas Net Gas Net Gas Exports/ as per cent import Production Demand (Imports) of demand dependency
Net Oil & Gas Oil & Oil & Oil & Gas exports Oil & Gas Net Gas Net Gas Exports/ as per cent import Production Demand (Imports) of demand dependency
1998 1999 2000
145 150 138
91 90 89
54 61 49
60% 68% 55%
85 94 103
82 88 91
2 6 12
3% 6% 13%
230 244 241
173 178 180
57 66 61
33% 37% 34%
1998 1999 2000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
128 127 116 105 93
88 87 87 89 92
40 40 29 15 1
46% 47% 34% 17% 1%
99 97 96 90 82
90 88 89 91 89
10 9 8 (1) (7)
11% 10% 9% 1% 8%
227 224 213 194 175
177 175 176 180 180
50 49 37 14 (5)
28% 28% 21% 8% 3%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
84 84 79 75 69
91 88 86 83 81
(7) (4) (8) (8) (12)
7% 5% 9% 10% 15%
74 67 64 54 52
84 86 89 82 89
(10) (19) (24) (27) (37)
12% 22% 27% 33% 42%
158 151 143 129 121
175 173 175 164 170
(17) (23) (32) (35) (49)
10% 13% 18% 21% 29%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
57 49 44 44 50
79 77 76 75 77
(22) (28) (31) (32) (27)
28% 37% 41% 42% 36%
41 35 33 33 35
74 70 69 63 64
(33) (35) (37) (30) (29)
45% 50% 53% 48% 45%
98 84 77 77 85
153 147 145 138 141
(55) (63) (68) (62) (56)
36% 43% 47% 45% 40%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
52 52 52 52 49
75 74 73 72 70
(23) (22) (21) (20) (21)
31% 30% 29% 28% 30%
35 34 32 30 29
66 67 64 62 59
(30) (33) (32) (32) (31)
46% 50% 50% 51% 52%
87 85 83 82 78
140 141 136 134 130
(53) (55) (53) (52) (52)
38% 39% 39% 39% 40%
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
47 44 42 40 38
70 69 69 69 69
(23) (25) (27) (29) (31)
33% 36% 39% 42% 45%
27 26 25 23 22
62 61 61 64 63
(34) (35) (36) (40) (41)
56% 57% 60% 63% 65%
74 70 67 63 60
131 130 130 133 131
(57) (60) (63) (69) (71)
44% 46% 49% 52% 54%
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
36 34 32 31 29
69 69 69 69 69
(33) (35) (36) (38) (40)
48% 50% 53% 55% 58%
21 20 19 18 17
63 65 63 64 62
(42) (45) (44) (46) (45)
67% 69% 70% 72% 72%
57 54 52 49 47
132 134 132 133 132
(75) (80) (80) (84) (85)
57% 60% 61% 63% 65%
2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
2031 2032 2033 2034 2035
28 26 25 24 23
69 70 70 70 70
(41) (43) (45) (47) (48)
60% 62% 64% 66% 68%
16 16 15 14 13
62 64 62 65 63
(46) (49) (48) (51) (49)
74% 76% 76% 78% 79%
44 42 40 38 36
131 134 132 135 133
(87) (92) (93) (97) (97)
66% 69% 70% 72% 73%
2031 2032 2033 2034 2035
Notes: Oil Demand includes Bunkers (estimated at 2.5 mtoe from 2016 onwards); Net Gas Production and Demand exclude oil and gas producers' own use. Both actual and projected Net Exports (Imports), and thus Import Dependency, are as implied by the difference between UK production and UK demand. The production projections for 2016–2021 are consistent with those published by the OGA at https://www.ogauthority.co.uk/data-centre/data-downloads-and-publications/production-projections/ . After 2021, oil production is assumed to decline at 5% pa and gas production to decline at 5% pa. The demand projections for 2016–2035 are consistent with the Reference Scenario in the Updated Energy and Emissions Projections published by DECC (now BEIS) at https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/updated-energy-and-emissions-projections-2015) in November 2015.
