Unemployment Rate (%) Nov 2008 Unemployment Rate (%) Today

 Polling  News  &  Notes     Overlooked  Recent  Polling  and  Insights  •  June  21,  2012     Swing  States  Have  Higher  Unemployment  Rate  Than  in  2008:  Some  commentators   have  focused  recently  on  the  unemployment  rates  in  battleground  states,  suggesting  the   key  is  whether  a  state's  unemployment  rate  is  lower  than  the  national  average.    While   that  is  a  comforting  thought  to  the  Obama  high  command  in  Chicago,  the  more  important   relationship  may  be  between  where  unemployment  is  today  and  where  it  was  in   November  2008.    The  Bureau  of  Labor  Statistics  released  May  unemployment  rates  for   individual  states  last  week,  and  according  to  this  report,  all  but  two  battleground  states   have  unemployment  rates  higher  than  they  were  on  Election  Day,  November  4,  2008.       Michigan  is  the  only  state  with  a  lower  unemployment  rate  today  (8.5%)  than  on  Election   Day  2008  (9.4%).    Ohio's  unemployment  rate  is  the  same  as  2008,  7.3%.    In  every  other   battleground  state,  unemployment  rates  are  higher  today  than  when  voters  went  to  the   polls  in  2008.    Nevada  saw  the  largest  increase,  with  a  3.4-­‐point  jump  from  8.2%  to   11.6%.    The  rates  in  Colorado  and  North  Carolina  both  increased  by  more  than  two   points,  to  8.1%  and  9.4%,  respectively,  and  rates  in  Florida  (8.6%),  Indiana  (7.9%),   Pennsylvania  (7.4%),  New  Mexico  (6.7%),  Wisconsin  (6.8%)  and  Virginia  (5.6%)  are   higher  by  more  than  one  point.     President  Barack  Obama  won  some  of  these  states  by  slim  margin  in  2008,  but  these   higher  unemployment  numbers  today  could  tip  these  states  against  him  this  time.     Regardless  on  how  their  state  compares  to  the  national  average,  these  voters  feel  the  pain   of  their  friends,  families,  and  neighbors  who  are  not  better  off  than  they  were  four  years   ago.      

Unemployment  Rate  (%)  Nov  2008  

Unemployment  Rate  (%)  Today  

14   11.6  

12   9.4  

10   8  

6.7  

6  

5   4.3  

5.1   4.2  

5.6   4.5  

5.1  

6.8  

7.3  7.3  

7.4  

7.9   6.8  

5.9  

5.4  

8.1  

8.2  

8.5  

6.8  

9.4   8.6   7.4  

8.2   7.3  

5.3  

4   2   0   NH  

IA  

VA  

NM  

WI  

OH  

PA  

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Accessed June 20, 2012 ###

IN  

CO   National   MI  

FL  

NC  

NV