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MIDCAP DHAMAKA - TOP 10 TECHNICAL PICKS STOCK

SECTOR

CMP*

AVG

SL

TGT 1

TGT 1 % RETURN

TGT 2

TGT 2 % RETURN

BERGEPAINT

PAINTS

225.05

190

170

310

37.75%

330

46.63%

BLUESTARCO

CONSUMER GOODS

353.50

330

280

480

35.79%

525

48.51%

CEATLTD

AUTO ANCILLARIES

1014.30

935

885

1320

30.14%

1380

36.05%

GODREJIND

DIVERSIFIED

392.15

350

315

460

17.30%

520

32.60%

JKLAKSHMI

CEMENT

353.10

320

300

470

33.11%

500

41.60%

MARKSANS

PHARMA

94.10

80

65

140

48.78%

155

64.72%

SKSMICRO

BFSI

439.60

400

350

550

25.11%

589

33.99%

TATAELXSI

IT

1755.55

1450

1190

2300

31.01%

2800

59.49%

POWER

182.15

158

139

225

23.52%

250

37.25%

AUTOMOBILES

283.30

245

215

325

14.72%

360

27.07%

TORNTPOWER TVSMOTOR *Closing as on 6th November 2015

**Time Frame: 9-12 months

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SAMVAT 2071 FACT SHEET STOCK

INITIATED @

AVG

SL

TGT 1

TGT 2

CMP*

RETURN

ASIANPAINT

640.10

575

544

775

825

830.65

28.89%

SECOND TARGET ACHIEVED

BHARATFORG

752.15

630

590

930

1010

859.35

34.28%


DIVISLAB **

1705.20

1540

1415

2050

2200

1153.85

29.02%


GRASIM

3279.40

3090

2749

4000

4250

3712.05

21.97%

FIRST TARGET ACHIEVED

LT

1452.90

1365

1244

1705

1880

1410.75

29.40%


POWERGRID

134.10

117

106

172

185

128.75

-4.00%

CLOSED AT 128.75

RELIANCE

937.90

845

759

1175

1250

947.70

1.00%

CLOSED AT 947.70

TATA STEEL

447.55

395

374

550

602

246.60

-16.43%

STOP LOSS TRIGGERED

2441.15

2270

2090

2825

3050

2495.20

15.72%

FIRST TARGET ACHIEVED

598.30

528

489

750

820

758.65

37.05%


TCS YESBANK

AVERAGE RETURN

17.69%

NIFTY 50 RETURN (for the same period)

3.68%

*CMP as on 30th October 2015 | **Corporate Action (Bonus Issue)

REMARK

Generated 4.8 times of Index Return 3

Nifty has generated very marginal returns when compared to last Diwali. Till 3rd November, 2015 on a closing basis even though it made its life time high of 9119.20 during last Samvat. During the current bull cycle, which started from the lows of 4531.15 made on December 20, 2011, Nifty has doubled in a span of 1170 calendar days.

As per the Elliot Wave Principle, Nifty movement from the lows of 4531.15 to the highs of 5629.95 was wave 1 (red circled numeric numbers) and from there, wave 2 correction started which ended at 5118.85 in an expanded flat corrective pattern. The correction lasted for 553 calendar days ending on 28th August, 2013. From the lows of 5118.85, Nifty has started its most dynamic wave on the up side which was fuelled with positive news flows. This kind of behavior is more common in the third wave advance and Nifty witnessed its wave 3 from the lows of 5118.85 to the life time high of 9119, a gain of 4000 points in a span of 553 calendar days. From the highs of 9119.20 the Nifty went into a corrective wave which was wave 4 in the larger wave pattern. The wave 4 seems to be a complex corrective pattern while the low for wave 4 has been established at 7539.5 but the corrective structure appears to be still on.

4



As seen in the chart, Nifty is currently in wave 4 of the larger wave 3, of one higher degree and within this wave 4 Nifty is currently forming a contracting ending triangle within the wave Y of the wave 4. It is likely to end the corrective phase in mid January 2016. If not in January, the next time cycle is due in mid September 2016, but, our preferred view is bottom in the mid of the January 2016. Nifty is expected to trade in the trading range of 7673-8300 till mid January 2016.



Nifty should start wave 5 on the higher side which should target 9400 by coming Samvat.

5

The index is in uptrend forming higher tops and higher bottoms and in an upward sloping trend channel. Currently, the index is correcting with the overall market and has found support near one of its moving average and seems to be building base for the next move on the higher side. Supports are pegged at 6400 followed by 6100 which is strongest index support zone on the weekly close basis. On the higher side, the immediate resistance is pegged at 7220 and weekly close above that it is expected to edge higher towards 8100 and a monthly close above that will target 8950 in the long term. Hence, we expect mid cap out performance to emerge new Samvat year.

6

Berger Paints India Ltd. is the second largest paint company in India and has been featured in Top Companies Report by CoatingsWorld among the Top 25 - the global ranking of the top manufacturers of paints, coatings, adhesives and sealants.

CMP AVERAGE STOPLOSS TGT1 TGT2 13 Week EMA 52 Week EMA

225.05 190 170 310 330 219.70 204.97



The stock is in a multi-year bull trend and has been making higher highs every year since 20082009. The stock is trading well above its 50-week exponential moving average which is currently placed at 205. The stock has important supports around 200 and 170 levels based on the weekly charts. On the upside, the stock has minor resistance at 230 and 235 levels after that at its life time high placed at 252 levels.



The stock is forming an ascending triangle which is a bullish consolidating pattern, on the weekly charts and is on a verge of a breakout, with rising volumes which technically suggest a target of around 300 (upside of 30%) on successful breakout.

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Blue Star Ltd. is India's largest central air-conditioning company, catering to large number of corporate and commercial customers, and also to retail clientele with leadership in the field of commercial refrigeration equipment ranging from water coolers to cold storages.


353.50 330 280 480 525 352.86 331.66



The stock price witnessed smart rally from the low of 130 made in Aug’13 to around 380 levels in one year time frame, post which in last one year time frame stock remained in a broad range of 300-370 mark. In the consolidation phase, stock managed to sustained above its 50-WEMA and also above its 200-DEMA, indicates strong accumulation in the stock and provides an excellent opportunity to accumulate stock for higher targets in the coming future.



On the technical setup 14-period weekly RSI sustained in bullish territory during last one year and gradually started moving towards overbought territory, also similar structure is apparent in daily chart, reaffirms the fact that momentum is poised with bullish bias.

8

CEAT is one of the leading tyre manufacturers in India, offering the widest range of tyres to leading OEM’s across the world. In the last month, the company posted quarterly results with rise in net profit primarily due to softening of raw material costs. However, net sales remained down quarter on quarter basis. CMP 1014.30  The stock price is in structural uptrend with intermittent profit booking. However, in the last two year time frame such intermittent price correction has provided an excellent opportunity to AVERAGE 935 accumulate stock on dips. In the last five months time frame, stock witnessed smart rally from the STOPLOSS 885 lows of 595 levels to a life time high of 1319.90 posted only in the last month of Oct’15, wherein the TGT1 1320 stock price plunged on account of profit booking. On applying Fibonacci Retracement from the low of 595 to life time high, 38% retracement lies near 1043 which is an opportunity to accumulate TGT2 1380 stock on dips.

13 Week EMA 52 Week EMA

1111.72 900.27



Currently stock is holding above its 200-DEMA (934) and likely to find support on any price correction, and momentum oscillator on weekly time frame is poised in bullish territory, indicating buying opportunity for long term investment.

9

Godrej Industries manufactures varieties of special chemical products, edible oils and processed foods. The company has finance and investment activities as a part of their operations. The company has major stake in Godrej Properties and significant stake in Godrej Consumer Products. The company was able to maintain 20% growth in both top line and bottom line. CMP 392.15  The stock is in the cycle of higher highs and higher lows on the quarterly charts where the price moved from the lows of 45 to the recent highs of 412, indicating the stock is in secular uptrend. The AVERAGE 350 directional movement index, which tells about the underlying trend on the stock, indicates STOPLOSS 315 strengthening of the ongoing uptrend. Moreover, the stock is respecting its 200-weeks WMA and TGT1 460 EMA on every major correction, indicating strong hands in the counter.

TGT2 13 Week EMA 52 Week EMA

520 371.33 350.97



Even on the Bollinger band setup on the monthly charts where the stock traded in the upper band, the slope and the movement of bands are in uptrend over the last few years. The bands are also slowly expanding, indicating the stock’s volatility and momentum over coming months can be northwards.

10

JK Lakshmi Cement is a leading cement brand in its marketing area with a network of over 3000 dealers spread in the states of Rajasthan, Gujarat, Delhi, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Jammu & Kashmir, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha and West Bengal. CMP 353.10  The stock has given spectacular move from its low of 54 made in the month of August 2013 till 430 made in the month of January 2015 and is currently consolidating in the range of 350-390 levels on AVERAGE 320 weekly charts. The stock witnessed a decent correction till 302 levels in the month of June 2015 and STOPLOSS 300 from there has moved up by 25% towards 374 levels.

TGT1 TGT2 13 Week EMA 52 Week EMA

470 500 365.28 341.50



The stock is still in a long term uptrend and has been making higher highs and higher lows on the weekly charts above its 50-week exponential moving average of 344. The stock has its important support levels placed at 350 and 300 levels with its resistance placed near 400 levels and on a successful breakout above 400 levels the stock has the potential to test 500.

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Marksans Pharma is among the few mid-cap pharma companies which had been growing steadily in the last couple of years. The stock has risen very sharply in its current bull trend which started from around 10 levels in the year 2013 and its strong uptrend is still intact.


94.10 80 65 140 155 96.03 75.64



The stock has been consistently making higher high and higher low on weekly charts and has not gone till its 50 week exponential moving average even once in its entire uptrend. The stock made a high of 115 in the month of August and went into a phase of correction in which it made a low of 74 and took support of its previous breakout levels of 75, which indicates technically, the stock is in a very strong uptrend.



The stock is currently consolidating in a range of 95-105 and has taken support at its 13-week exponential moving average of 97 with average volumes. The stock has its major supports placed at 90 and 70 levels below which the stock is likely to change its trend to sell.

12

SKS Microfinance Ltd. is the largest MFI in India in terms of total value of loans outstanding, number of borrowers providing microfinance services in the lower income segment predominantly located in rural areas in India.


439.60 400 350 550 589 444.76 427.23



Stock is in a structural uptrend after placing a low near 97 levels in Aug’13, the rally continued till July’15 wherein stock made fresh 52-week high of 589.60. Post this, the stock plunged towards 360 levels where it formed intermediate bottom and resumed its uptrend by placing higher low-higher high. Applying Fibonacci Retracement on the aforementioned rally, the stock price retraced less than 50% of entire rally and rebounded. Also, the stock found support near its 200-WEMA in recent price correction, emphasizing the weight age of recent price low of 360.



Currently, the stock is hovering above its 200 & 50-DEMA which is placed in the same vicinity of 440 levels. Also, stock is likely to give breakout from its falling trend line adjoined from the highs, which may boost further buying interest in the counter. On the technical setup, momentum oscillators are poised with bullish bias reaffirming underlying strength in the counter.

13

Tata Elxsi is a design company that has unique blend of technology, creativity and engineering which provides system, industrial and product designing, animation and visual effects, software development and systems integration for industries like Automobiles, Metals, Consumer Products, Finance, Energy, Chemicals, Engineering, Pharma and Health Care, Agriculture, Media and Entertainment. CMP 1755.55  The stock price has seen a vertical line rally from the lows of sub 160 to the highs of 2317 over the last two years making it a multi bagger and explaining its strong secular uptrend. The stock also has AVERAGE 1450 given a powerful breakout from a descending triangle with very huge volume activity during the STOPLOSS 1190 first half of the year. However, over the last few months, the stock is trading in a broad range of TGT1 2300 1555-2025 in low volumes by taking support from its both short and medium term moving averages, indicating a pause in the ongoing Bull run. TGT2 2800


1781.44 1348.51



The ADX on weekly chart is indicating the strength of the primary uptrend is very strong. Thus, we expect the stock to retest its all time high around 2300 levels in the coming months and is likely to move into the unchartered territory in the coming months.

14

Torrent Power Ltd. is one of the leading company in the Indian power sector, engaged in generation, transmission and distribution of power, mainly catering in state of Gujarat.


182.15 158 140 225 250 174.13 160.52



The stock has formed significant low of 66 in Aug’13, post which the stock witnessed a smart recovery forming higher high-higher lows on the weekly chart in the last one year time frame. Moreover, the stock remained in a consolidation mode.



In the last month, the stock gave a breakout from consolidation zone making a fresh 52-week high of 199.90, which indicates fresh leg of bull rally which is likely to unfold over the coming months.



Technically on the weekly timeframe chart, stock is hitting upper Bollinger Band (20,2) exhibits bullish bias. Also, the stock is well poised above its major 200-DEMA and 50-DEMA and momentum oscillator MACD (12/26/9) has taken support above signal line with Bullish Crossover, reaffirming positive outlook for the counter. Hence ,we expect the stock to climb higher in the coming month.

15

TVS Motor Company is the third largest two-wheeler manufacturer in India and one among the top ten in the world with annual revenue of more than USD 1.5 billion. The company is able to deliver decent sales numbers over the last few quarters consistently due to strong traction in scooter sales. CMP 283.30  The stock price has seen a vertical line rally from the lows of 28 to 322 over the last two years making it a multi bagger and explaining its strong secular uptrend. However, over the last few AVERAGE 245 months, the stock was trading in a broad range of 200-273 by taking support from its 100 WEMA, STOPLOSS 215 indicating a pause in the ongoing Bull run. However, the stock has given breakout of the said TGT1 325 trading range with huge volume activity. The stock also has given confirmation from the double bottom pattern on weekly chart, indicating its possible resumption of its uptrend. TGT2 360


248.75 234.98



Even on the Bollinger band setup on the weekly charts, the expansion of bands and the formation of double bottom pattern in the lower band, gives the confidence that both momentum and volatility support the resumption of uptrend.

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KARVY RESEARCH DESK – STOCK BROKING JK Jain

[email protected]

+9140-33216300 / 44677482

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