View our previous, speculative briefing on the Austrian election here ...

View our previous, speculative briefing on the Austrian election here. Austrians went to the polls yesterday to elect a new legislature. The conservative People’s Party (OeVP) has come out on top, but to form government, it will likely have to bargain with rightwing populists. For the EU, this will mean a Member State with a tougher line on migration and a greater emphasis on subsidiarity.

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According to preliminary results from the Austrian Interior Ministry, the OeVP have secured first place with 31.4% of the vote. The highly personalised campaign of 31year old leader Sebastian Kurz which borrowed policies from the far right has paid off.

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The results also indicate that the rightwing populist Freedom Party (FPOe) inched into second place with 27.4% of the vote. While this vote share isn’t a historic high for the party, it’s enough to leave the populists key players in coalition negotiations.

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Despite a campaign rocked by scandal, the leftwing Social Democrats (SPOe) held its ground, its vote share practically standing still at 26.7%. But its legislative influence relative to the OeVP and FPO has declined.

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The vote share going to minor parties shrunk. The Greens, who had previously held 21 seats, failed to meet the vote threshold to avoid being ejected from parliament.

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With no one winning a majority of seats, Austria’s parties will now begin a lengthy process of government formation. The OeVP, as the largest party, will be the first to try forming a coalition.

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It has two viable choices: returning to a Grand Coalition with the SPOe, or bringing the FPOe into government.

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An OeVP-FPOe coalition is the most likely. Mr Kurz has created common ground between the two parties on migration by vowing to crack down on migrant benefits and calling for the closure of the Mediterranean migrant trail.

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Moreover, both the SPOe and OeVP have acknowledged voter frustration with the gridlock that has characterised their joint rule.

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Negotiating an OeVP-FPOe deal, however, will be no easy task. Mr Kurz has insisted any deal must be “pro-European”, whilst the FPOe is, at its core, a eurosceptic party.

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Further, an OeVP-FPOe could drive a wedge between Vienna and Brussels. The EU ostractised Austria when the configuration was previously attempted in the 2000s. Another retaliation this time around is unlikely given populist inroads elsewhere on the continent. But the Austrian government’s position on Europe gains added significance because it will preside over the Council of the EU for the second half of 2018 - just when Brexit talks are meant to conclude.

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If coalition negotiations fail, minority government led by the OeVP, in which Mr Kurz courts the SPOe and FPOe on a case-by-case basis, is still on the table.


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 Sebastian Kurz – Mr Kurz’s strategy to revitalise the OeVP paid off, and he will almost certainly become Austrian Chancellor. Expect other European conservative parties under threat from the far right to consider emulating his winning formula.

 The FPOe – The FPOe have increased their vote share and secured a pivotal place in coalition negotiations, emboldening populists elsewhere in Europe.

 The Visegrád Group – The Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia now have a closer ally on the issue of EU migration and external border protection.

 The SPOe – Though it did better than many feared, withstanding a substantial decline in its vote share, it’s likely the SPOe won’t return to government. Moreover, a bad campaign rocked by scandal leaves a bitter aftertaste for the party.

 The Greens – Austria’s Green party failed to meet the 4% vote threshold to enter parliament and lost all 21 seats after an internal faction broke away earlier this year.

 European integrationists – Mr Kurz’s emphasis on subsidiarity along with the FPOe’s euroscepticism will make Austria more averse to further integration efforts on defence and the Eurozone.

translated from original language to English

“Dear Sebastian Kurz, I would like to congratulate you and your party for winning the most votes” - Jean-Claude Juncker, European Commission President “Congrats to Sebastian Kurz for coming first in Austria elections. We count on a strong pro-European government to work on our common future." - Antonio Tajani, European Parliament President "Congratulations Sebastian Kurz. A strong result. The OeVP is back." - Manfred Weber, EPP leader “Deeply concerned about the genetic mutation of the OeVP. Kurz played with the fire and the real winner is FPOe” - Gianni Pittella, S&D leader “Closing borders & retreat to nationalism won’t provide any answers. Let’s fight even more for a stronger Europe!” - Guy Verhofstadt, ALDE leader "Yet another severe blow to the EU’s free movement experiment” - Nigel Farage, UKIP MEP "A welcome defeat for the European Union and a slap in the face for the European Commission” - Front National


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