Warrnambool Housing Data - HIA

NSW is benefitting from the rebound in services exports, like tourism, education and ... Sydney. Melbourne. Brisbane. Adelaide. Perth. Hobart. Darwin. Canberra.
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Will the NSW Upturn Continue in 2016? Shane Garrett, HIA Senior Economist HIA Industry Outlook Breakfast Sydney, March 2016

Starts have soared to record highs Total Dwelling Starts – New South Wales

Seasonally Adjusted

Trend

Sep-15

Sep-14

Sep-13

Sep-12

Sep-11

Sep-10

Sep-09

Sep-08

Sep-07

Sep-06

Sep-05

Sep-04

Sep-03

Sep-02

Sep-01

Sep-00

Sep-99

Sep-98

Sep-97

Sep-96

Sep-95

Number

Source: ABS 8752 17,000 16,000 15,000 14,000 13,000 12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000

Houses and High Rise have dominated… New South Wales Dwelling Commencements by Dwelling Type - Year to June 2015 Source: HIA Economics, ABS

7,000

6,380

6,000

5,328

5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000

1,000

539

923 210

122

0 Houses

One Storey

Two or more storeys In a one or two storey In a three storey block In a four or more storey block block

Semi-detached, row or terrace houses, townhouses

Flats units or apartments

…and there remains a large Pipeline of High Density Snapshot of the Building Activity Pipeline - Flats, units and apartments Source: HIA Economics, ABS 8752.0, ABS 8731.0

12,000

45,000 40,000

10,000

35,000

8,000

30,000 25,000

6,000

20,000

4,000

15,000 10,000

2,000

5,000

Commenced

Dec-15

Dec-14

Not yet commenced

Dec-13

Dec-12

Dec-11

Approved (1 month lag)

Dec-10

Dec-09

Under construction (RHS)

Dec-08

Dec-07

Dec-06

Dec-05

-

Completed

What makes the NSW Market Tick? Confidence

Population

Economic Conditions

Interest Rates

Home Prices

Rental Market

NSW Population Growth is Solid New South Wales Population Growth by Component - Moving Annual Total Source: ABS 3101.0

140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000

20,000 0 -20,000

Total MAT

Natural Increase MAT

Net Overseas Migration MAT

Net Interstate Migration MAT

Jun-15

Jun-14

Jun-13

Jun-12

Jun-11

Jun-10

Jun-09

Jun-08

Jun-07

Jun-06

Jun-05

Jun-04

Jun-03

Jun-02

Jun-01

Jun-00

Jun-99

Jun-98

Jun-97

Jun-96

-60,000

Jun-95

-40,000

Population will see Strong Growth Long Term

Population Growth Scenario Series A Series B Series C Population in 2015

7,618,241

7,618,241

7,618,241

Population in 2050

11,359,104

10,665,010

10,268,959

1.1%

1.0%

0.9%

41,274

33,616

29,246

Low real income growth

46,824

39,166

34,796

Medium real income growth

52,373

44,715

40,346

High real income growth

57,923

50,265

45,895

Implied annual population growth rate Additional dwellings required per annum